The hottest Economy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Business Topics

The Average Chinese City

ChinaTalk • 652 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
🌐 International Economy
  1. Some of the top headlines from China reveal struggling economic situations post-zero-covid.
  2. Small cities like Baoji reflect challenges in China's economy with falling home prices and limited job prospects.
  3. Education in small-town China can be marketized, with families fighting for opportunities in local high schools.

The Cost of Changing Course

Dana Blankenhorn: Facing the Future • 79 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. America's economy is built on incentives favoring oil and gas, making it difficult to transition to renewable energy.
  2. Wealthy individuals and big corporations often benefit the most from government aid and investments, rather than the intended recipients.
  3. Challenges in implementing new policies arise due to resistance from established industries and fear of disrupting the capitalist system.

🤖 AI and the economy: scenarios for a world with artificial general intelligence

Faster, Please! • 456 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Economy
  1. Artificial General Intelligence is a concept that doesn't exist yet and may never be achieved, but some experts believe it's coming soon.
  2. AI is viewed as a tool to enhance human capabilities and create new opportunities rather than a threat to job security.
  3. The impact of AI on the economy will depend on whether there is a limit to the complexity of tasks humans can perform.

Made-in-China Mess

Diane Francis • 339 implied HN points • 28 Nov 22
🌍 World Politics Economy
  1. China's strict zero-Covid policies have led to widespread public protests as people become frustrated with ongoing lockdowns and health care failures.
  2. The country's vaccination efforts have lagged behind other nations, resulting in a higher number of Covid cases and deaths compared to places like India and the U.S.
  3. There are major economic consequences for China, including factory disruptions and a tarnished global reputation, prompting some businesses to consider relocating.

Why Kishida Retreated From “New Form of Capitalism”

Japan Economy Watch • 439 implied HN points • 11 Jun 22
🌍 World Politics Economy
  1. Prime Minister Kishida retreated from his 'new form of capitalism' due to pressure from critics and financial markets misunderstanding his policies as socialist.
  2. The policy document lacked substantive measures to bring about a 'virtuous cycle of growth and distribution' despite initial reform efforts.
  3. Kishida's leadership style, as a consensus-builder, hindered the ability to make significant economic changes and prioritize key economic measures.
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Tariffs Do Not Work

Points And Figures • 506 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. Tariffs do not work as intended, often leading to higher prices for consumers and businesses.
  2. Repealing all tariffs on foreign goods and shifting to a consumption tax system could make imports cheaper and boost competitiveness of US products.
  3. Using a consumption tax system could lower prices for American consumers and create a more competitive market without the need for tariffs.

Video: Weakest Real Yen In Half Century Reflects Deterioration of Japan’s Competitiveness

Japan Economy Watch • 279 implied HN points • 14 Nov 22
💰 Finance Economy
  1. In the short term, Tokyo has limited options to address yen's weakness primarily due to the gap between American and Japanese interest rates.
  2. The weak yen reflects not just monetary policy differences but also a significant decline in Japan's real competitiveness over the years.
  3. To improve the situation, Japan needs to focus on reforms that enhance the country's underlying efficiency, making Japanese firms competitive in the global market once again.

The Math of the Housing Crunch

The Sunday Morning Post • 58 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economy
  1. The housing crisis has worsened in recent years due to factors like increased rents and higher home prices, impacting policymakers and individuals alike.
  2. The root of the housing crunch dates back to the Great Recession in 2007, leading to a significant drop in new home construction that never fully recovered.
  3. To ease the housing crunch, there is a need for an increase in the construction of various types of housing units, which has already shown some promise in the rental market.

Why are "missions" proving so difficult?

Comment is Freed • 65 implied HN points • 04 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. Missions aim to connect different departments to work together towards common goals, but often get stuck in departmental boundaries instead of collaborating.
  2. Successful missions need to be ambitious and focus on long-term outcomes, even when faced with short-term challenges. This helps justify tough choices today for better results in the future.
  3. Missions should involve everyone in society, not just government, meaning real teamwork and shared ownership are important. This can be tough for bureaucracies that like to control but is key to success.

We are the World

Life in the 21st Century • 58 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Economy
  1. The United States exports thermal coal despite reducing domestic use, leading to accusations of hypocrisy
  2. Coal fires industrialization, with India increasing coal-fired power capacity
  3. China leads in solar power due to historical American neglect of solar development

How Banks Are Adjusting for Risk

The Sunday Morning Post • 117 implied HN points • 24 Sep 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Banks are tightening lending standards due to economic uncertainty and risk concerns
  2. Banks are responding by decreasing loan-to-value ratios, adding interest rate premiums, and shortening loan maturities
  3. Borrowing money from banks will become tougher in the coming months due to higher interest rates and stricter underwriting standards

The Path Forward

DeFi Weekly • 117 implied HN points • 27 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. All value on earth will shift to public chains in the next decade
  2. The speed of crypto adoption is likely faster than internet adoption due to existing infrastructure
  3. Believing in the future of crypto is crucial, regardless of specific catalysts for growth

Optimism & Fear

Things I Didn't Learn in School • 117 implied HN points • 30 Jun 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. There are optimists and pessimists on Wall Street, correlating to equity and bond investors.
  2. Over time, optimists have been more right than wrong, especially in holding US stocks.
  3. A perfect investment portfolio combines the fears of bond investors with the optimism of equity investors.

Is Japan’s Inflation Really At a 40-Year High?

Japan Economy Watch • 259 implied HN points • 21 Nov 22
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Japan's inflation trend is not accurately represented by the headline figure of a 40-year high, considering the measure used is specific and not reflective of overall inflation.
  2. Year-to-year comparisons of inflation can be misleading, especially for products with price volatility, potentially skewing the true underlying trend.
  3. The causes and implications of inflation must be carefully analyzed to determine the appropriate monetary policy response, balancing economic growth with the impact of higher interest rates.

Lessons from History: The Rise and Fall of the Telecom Bubble

Mule’s Musings • 558 implied HN points • 16 Oct 23
💼 Business Economy
  1. The Telecom bubble had compounding levels of leverage throughout the value chain, which is a defining difference from today's AI companies.
  2. The barrier to entry in the Telecom industry seemed lower than in the AI industry, allowing for more new entrants.
  3. Supply is reactive to demand, and the telecom bubble showed that supply can quickly outstrip demand, leading to a glut.

01/30/24 - The entirety of Ukraine, working its ass off in total war for over a year, cannot match up to even Evergrande as a single company.

Moly’s Substack • 58 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
💼 Business Economy
  1. Even the entirety of Ukraine in total war for over a year cannot match the debt of just a single company like Evergrande.
  2. Jobs like sorting packages and working in a production line can be extremely exhausting and pay very little.
  3. The debt of Evergrande alone is larger than the debt of the entirety of Ukraine, along with many other real estate companies combined.

Why ASML Matters

False Positive • 38 HN points • 21 Mar 24
💼 Business Economy
  1. ASML, a Dutch company, holds a monopoly on creating the world's most advanced microchips through their EUV lithography systems.
  2. The control of ASML by the Netherlands provides a unique chokepoint power in global microchip production, impacting international trade and security.
  3. Despite its power, ASML faces limitations in leveraging its monopoly, as it is enmeshed in Western-dominated supply chains and complexities that restrict its options for challenging export controls.

America's Money Nuke

Diane Francis • 499 implied HN points • 25 Apr 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. Janet Yellen is a key figure in managing the U.S. economy, showing that size doesn't matter when it comes to leadership.
  2. The financial tools created by her department are seen as powerful weapons meant to combat global threats, specifically targeting Russia.
  3. These economic strategies aim to influence international relations and bring about significant changes in global politics.

Inflation: Japan Stands Alone, Part II

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 08 Sep 22
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Bank of Japan faces a dilemma with interest rates and the yen due to the growing gap between Japan and other countries' interest rates.
  2. Japan's weak domestic demand and a very weak yen are impacting consumer spending and business investment negatively.
  3. There is uncertainty around whether speculators will force the Bank of Japan to raise 10-year bond rates above 0.25% in response to the weak yen.

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

Mule’s Musings • 443 implied HN points • 02 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Economy
  1. Semiconductor market experienced a downturn in 2023 but is showing signs of recovery in 2024, especially in AI-related segments
  2. AI is emerging as a significant market segment in the semiconductor industry and is expected to continue growing in 2024
  3. Memory market, particularly High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), is also expected to see growth and become a major category in 2024

How Trump Won, What Happens Next, and How Disconnects Drove Democracy

Kyla’s Newsletter • 178 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. Trump won the election due to a mix of voter unity, economic dissatisfaction, and a desire for change among a diverse group of voters. Many believed he could restore stability and address their economic concerns better than his opponent.
  2. There's a noticeable disconnect between how people feel about the economy and the actual economic data. Even with good indicators, many voters feel burdened by high prices and economic inequality, leading to frustration and distrust.
  3. The way people receive information shapes their understanding of politics and policy. Social media influences voter perception significantly, and there's a need for clearer communication and engagement on multiple platforms to rebuild trust and convey policies effectively.

Spilled Coffee Year In Review

Spilled Coffee • 8 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
💰 Finance Economy
  1. The newsletter grew sharply in 2025, expanding its global readership and earning mainstream recognition from major outlets and platform bestseller lists.
  2. The content was heavily investing-focused with a steady cadence of market updates, stock picks, charts, and sector analyses that tracked themes like housing, AI, and the Magnificent 7.
  3. Popular essays challenged common investing myths and emphasized simple, long-term thinking and making financial choices that reflect real-life priorities rather than just spreadsheet metrics.

Dubai's Planned $32 Billion Mega Airport Project

Tamer’s Substack • 25 HN points • 29 Apr 24
🌍 World Politics Economy
  1. Dubai plans to build new terminals at the Al Maktoum International Airport to become the largest airport in the world, with a capacity for over 260 million passengers.
  2. The project will cost around $34 billion and include 400 boarding gates, five parallel runways, and create a new city around the airport with housing for up to a million people.
  3. Dubai aims to transition air traffic from the current busiest airport in the world, Dubai International Airport, to Al Maktoum, ensuring continuous development for future generations.

Audio Debate On Japan’s Inflation, Interest Rates, and Low Growth

Japan Economy Watch • 239 implied HN points • 07 Nov 22
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Central banks no longer target money supply because the relationship between money growth and inflation became unstable due to changes in financial markets.
  2. In Japan, weak demand for goods and services, not poor monetary policy, has kept interest rates near zero for over a quarter century.
  3. Low aggregate demand in Japan is driven by falling household incomes, lack of competitiveness, and companies hesitating to expand due to weak capacity utilization.

Cruel Britannia

Diane Francis • 419 implied HN points • 06 Jun 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. The Queen's Jubilee marks a significant moment for Britain, highlighting the country's ongoing identity crisis after Brexit. Many worry about what will happen when Queen Elizabeth is no longer around.
  2. Britain's focus on defense and military agreements underscores a shift away from trade deals. The country is trying to maintain its global standing through military cooperation rather than economic partnerships.
  3. The economic impacts of Brexit are increasingly evident, with many British people feeling negatively about the decision. There are significant labor shortages and exports are declining, raising concerns for the future.

The US national debt reached $34.5 trillion, an all-time record, but does it actually matter?

Global Markets Investor • 39 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economy
  1. The US national debt has reached a record $34.5 trillion, increasing by $1 trillion every 100 days since June. This high level of debt poses challenges for the government and future generations.
  2. The US debt-to-GDP ratio is currently at 123.7%, near the all-time high. A high ratio decreases a country's ability to pay back debts and could lead to default or inflation-adjusted losses for investors.
  3. A country with a debt-to-GDP ratio above 130% historically has a high probability of default. High debt levels can limit future investments, impact economic growth, and reduce flexibility in responding to crises.

An overview of my thesis in response to an incisive comment

America in Crisis • 99 implied HN points • 21 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. Leftists were not happy with President Obama's performance, believing he should have done more to oppose Republican-influenced policies.
  2. The shift in economic culture from stakeholder capitalism to shareholder primacy after 1981 has led to prioritizing shareholder interests over other stakeholders, resulting in growing income inequality.
  3. The discussion around economic policy typically focuses on job creation over wages and income, reflecting a shareholder primacy culture, which has implications for economic outcomes and equality.

What the hell is happening? July 2023

Philoinvestor • 98 implied HN points • 28 Jul 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of money, so be cautious of nominal vs real rates.
  2. The Fed's rate hike strategy lowered inflation, but current economic conditions are not benign.
  3. China is focusing on sustainable growth and market reforms, rather than massive stimulus measures.

The FED has left the US Banking System Destabilized after Unprecedented Interest Rate Cycle

Modern Value Investing • 98 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economy
  1. US banks are facing increased risks of deposit outflows due to systemic vulnerabilities in the banking system.
  2. Unattractive interest rates on deposits compared to treasuries have left US banks trapped without sacrificing profitability.
  3. The FED must act quickly by reducing interest rates to stabilize the banking system and prevent further harm to the economy.

Sowing Solidarity: How Lebanon’s Wineries Remain Rooted

Vittles • 159 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🍲 Food & Drink Economy
  1. Lebanon's wineries are facing tough times due to conflict and destruction. Many winemakers are shifting their focus from producing wine to supporting their communities.
  2. The connection to the land is really important for these winemakers. They feel a strong pride in their heritage and want to preserve their agricultural traditions amidst the chaos.
  3. Support from abroad is crucial for the survival of Lebanon's wine industry. Winemakers need strong export partnerships to keep their businesses alive as local markets struggle.

Op-Ed: Is TikTok too big to fail in the US?

The PhilaVerse • 123 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy
  1. TikTok has a huge impact on the creator economy and many people rely on it for income. If it were banned, creators and small businesses would struggle to find new ways to make money.
  2. Banning TikTok would also hurt advertising for brands that target younger users. They would have to spend more on other platforms, which could increase costs for businesses.
  3. TikTok influences trends in music, fashion, and more. If it disappeared, there might be a gap in how trends are shared, and it would take time for other platforms to fill that role.