The hottest Epidemiology Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Health & Wellness Topics

New Data Once Again Proves Sweden Was Right About Masks

Unmasked • 130 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. Sweden's approach to COVID-19, particularly regarding masks, suggests that their policies were more effective compared to strict mandates. Many believe masks didn't help much, and the data supports this view.
  2. Experts' predictions and mandates around masks and vaccines were often incorrect, leading to public distrust. A lot of information from that time is either ignored or downplayed now.
  3. Recent studies reinforce that Sweden's strategies during the pandemic were valid while challenging the widely accepted methods enforced elsewhere. This raises questions about what really works in handling health crises.

Coming soon

Independent SAGE continues • 59 implied HN points • 17 Nov 23
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. Independent SAGE is planning to launch something new soon. Stay tuned for updates!
  2. You can subscribe to Independent SAGE for more information directly from them.
  3. Sharing is encouraged, so spread the word through various platforms like Facebook or email.

Canada Is Losing The War On Measles

Marginally Compelling • 9 implied HN points • 22 Nov 25
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. Canada has lost measles elimination status because the virus has been spreading locally for over 12 months, so measles is now endemic there.
  2. The ongoing outbreaks seem to have started in undervaccinated, tight-knit communities (notably a Mennonite gathering) that seeded continuous transmission and occasional spillovers into the wider population.
  3. This shows how fragile disease control is and that high vaccination rates, strong surveillance, and targeted outreach are needed to prevent and contain wider outbreaks.

My revised $1M offer to Paul Offit

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 5 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. A $1 million challenge invites an expert to defend a JAMA study that claims mRNA vaccination did not increase 4-year all-cause mortality, with impartial judges to decide the winner.
  2. The critic argues the study is too confounded to draw reliable conclusions about non-COVID deaths because retrospective propensity-weighted cohorts (and 1:1 matching) cannot fully adjust for bias.
  3. The challenge is presented as educational and non-accusatory, aiming to clarify interpretation of published science, and it includes a prediction that the invited expert will likely decline.

Outbreak Outlook - National - June 30

Force of Infection • 39 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. A summer wave of COVID-19 is expected to start in July, even though current activity is low. It's important to stay aware and prepared for changes in the situation.
  2. Flu cases are very low right now, with minimal activity reported across all states. It seems like there's not much to worry about regarding flu-related illnesses at this moment.
  3. Hospitalization rates are also low, which is a good sign for overall health. There are only 0.4 hospitalizations per 100,000 people, indicating that things are currently stable.
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Outbreak Outlook - Dec 2

Force of Infection • 108 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Epidemiology
  1. Flu cases are increasing, especially among young children, with activity levels hitting the start of flu season.
  2. COVID-19 rates remain low in the U.S., with fewer hospitalizations and a slight rise in emergency visits in some states.
  3. Concerns about H5N1 bird flu continue as officials are unable to find the source of recent infections in humans.

COVID Restrictions - Embraced Enthusiastically By Government Establishment - Were Indisputably Pointless, New Study Finds

Unmasked • 86 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. COVID restrictions, like lockdowns and mask mandates, didn't really help stop the spread of the virus. They ended up costing a lot of money without making a difference.
  2. Many people still feel the effects of these restrictions today, like vaccine passports and other rules that came from government policies.
  3. After lifting restrictions, there weren't big spikes in COVID cases, which suggests that the rules might not have worked as intended.

Outbreak Outlook, Jan 15

Force of Infection • 88 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. Influenza-like illness was slightly down recently, but it's too early to declare we've passed the peak. It's a hopeful sign, and we'll see if the trend continues.
  2. Kids aged 0-4 showed some improvement in severe illness, while older age groups are still facing rising hospital visits. Trends often lag in adults, so changes might come soon.
  3. Covid-19 indicators are mixed; some emergency visits have decreased, but wastewater data suggests the virus is still spreading. More updates will come next week.

New JAMA paper claim vaccines reduced COVID deaths by 75% and were associated with a 25% reduction in non-COVID ACM. Here are the flaws.

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 6 implied HN points • 05 Dec 25
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. The study's matching process was flawed because it couldn't do proper 1:1 matching due to privacy laws. This means their claims about vaccine benefits are questionable.
  2. Analysis of excess mortality trends in France suggests there were no significant benefits from the vaccines, as there was no noticeable drop in death rates.
  3. Even the best matching techniques can't fully address the healthy vaccinee effect, meaning the results of this study are likely not reliable.

$100K prize money to any epidemiologist or infectious disease doctor who will debate me live for 1 hour and show I got it wrong on COVID vaccine risk/benefit

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 5 implied HN points • 12 Dec 25
🔬 Science Epidemiology
  1. A $100,000 prize is offered to any US-based epidemiologist, infectious-disease specialist, or biostatistics professor with an h-index of 10+ to debate the mRNA COVID vaccine risk‑vs‑benefit live for one hour.
  2. The challenge hinges on Czech KCOR data and asks the expert to show that the cumulative net mortality benefit of two or three mRNA doses in the first two years likely exceeds the mortality risk; the debate will have three mutually agreeable unbiased judges and 30 minutes per side.
  3. Authorized employees of Pfizer or Moderna are explicitly invited to participate, framing the offer as a public call to prompt a real-time scientific dispute and draw attention to the vaccine safety question.

KCOR v6 enables radical transparency into vaccine data

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 4 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
🔬 Science Epidemiology
  1. KCOR v6 fits a Gompertz gamma‑frailty model to cohorts' cumulative hazards to remove heterogeneity and allow fair comparisons between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups.
  2. Applied to Czech data, KCOR shows a net harm signal (KCOR > 1) for mRNA COVID vaccines over time, with boosters appearing especially harmful in the weeks after vaccination.
  3. The method depends on assumptions (Gompertz mortality, gamma frailty, and that vaccine harm subsided by mid‑2022) and has limits: it can miss very early post‑shot spikes, long‑term monotonic risk increases, and non‑proportional hazard effects.

Outbreak Outlook - National - June 23

Force of Infection • 35 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. COVID-19 levels are currently low, but some areas are seeing a slight increase in activity. It's important to keep an eye on different regions as the situation can change.
  2. Influenza cases are very minimal right now, with fewer people visiting doctors for symptoms like fever or sore throat. Most age groups report low levels of flu illness.
  3. Norovirus cases are declining, which is a positive sign as we head into summer. Keeping track of these trends helps us stay prepared for any outbreaks.

New Czech dataset has ICD10 codes of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated female deaths

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 4 implied HN points • 20 Dec 25
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. A Czech record-level dataset links women's vaccination histories to ICD‑10 underlying causes of death and spans back to 1994, but it only covers women and originally reported events at monthly resolution rather than weekly.
  2. A preliminary ICD‑10 comparison finds different cause distributions between vaccinated and unvaccinated deaths (for example, higher shares of heart failure, diabetes, COVID, and neurologic causes among vaccinated deaths and higher cardiovascular shares among unvaccinated), but aggregate counts are confounded by long pre-vaccine records, older vaccinated populations, and baseline mortality differences.
  3. The data and analysis code are available for further study, and because the file records only underlying cause (not multiple causes) and has limited time resolution, careful age- and time-restricted analyses are needed to look for possible safety signals such as acute kidney injury.

To Paul Offit: An invitation to a public, evidence-bounded discussion

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 4 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. A focused public discussion is proposed to answer one narrow question: whether mRNA COVID-19 vaccines showed a clear net mortality benefit based on peer-reviewed studies.
  2. The discussion would be strictly evidence-bounded and structured: 60 minutes, only peer-reviewed papers (each side submits up to three in advance), materials shared 14 days before, equal talk time, and a method-focused review of assumptions and bias.
  3. To encourage participation and transparency, a charitable donation would be offered to the invited expert, the session and referenced materials would be made public, and an alternative expert is acceptable if the invitee declines.

kitten corner: CDC ya later

bad cattitude • 197 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Epidemiology
  1. The post discusses the delay in 'experts' realizing what 'amateurs' had known for a while, raising questions about other areas of expertise.
  2. It emphasizes the importance of questioning and thinking critically about information, even when it comes from supposed experts.
  3. The post prompts readers to consider the evolving nature of knowledge and the value of diverse perspectives.

Happy Thanksgiving! And let's all give thanks that Dr. Jay Bhattacharya is about to run the National Institutes of Health

Unreported Truths • 85 implied HN points • 28 Nov 24
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. Dr. Jay Bhattacharya is set to lead the National Institutes of Health, and he is known for being a scientist who values debate and open discussion.
  2. His early research on Covid suggested that the infection rate was higher than reported, which led to questioning the strict lockdown measures that were put in place.
  3. Hopefully, Bhattacharya's leadership will foster a culture of openness in scientific inquiry, allowing for diverse perspectives and research to be explored.

Denmark is the ideal country to do vaccine/autism studies because it's almost guaranteed never to find a link

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 6 implied HN points • 20 Nov 25
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. Denmark is seen as a good place for vaccine studies because its diagnosis process for autism is much slower than in other countries. This means many cases are diagnosed later, making it look like there is less of a problem.
  2. The vaccination schedule in Denmark is different, with fewer vaccines given to infants. This might cause developmental issues to show up later, skewing the data in studies that don't account for these differences.
  3. Using Danish data in studies can give a false impression of low autism rates. The delays in diagnosis make it seem like there are fewer cases than there actually are, which could mislead conclusions about the effects of vaccines.

Results from rapid onset autism survey show a significant temporal association with vaccines

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 6 implied HN points • 20 Nov 25
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. A survey found a strong link between the timing of vaccines and the onset of autism. This connection should not be ignored.
  2. No previous studies have looked at how vaccine timing relates to autism. This lack of research raises questions about what is being investigated.
  3. The author plans to fund a new, unbiased survey to gather more data on this topic and ensure the questions are reviewed by an impartial expert.

Are social media bad for mental health? It's the wrong question.

An Educated Guess • 174 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Epidemiology
  1. The impact of social media on mental health is a complex issue that cannot be simplified to a dose-response relationship.
  2. The understanding of social media's effect on mental health can benefit from incorporating different epidemiological paradigms like sanitation, infection, chronic disease, and eco-epidemiology.
  3. Social media is not just a risk factor but an environment that plays a crucial role in shaping various behaviors and experiences, especially for young people.

Lateral thinking

Logging the World • 79 implied HN points • 12 Nov 22
🔬 Science Epidemiology
  1. Lateral flow tests had a much lower false positive rate than many initially assumed, around 0.03%, showing their effectiveness.
  2. Data on PCR retests of positive lateral flow tests revealed a positive predictive value of 82% even at low prevalence, supporting the reliability of lateral flow tests.
  3. A rise in prevalence due to variants like delta and omicron, as well as ease in lockdown restrictions, contributed to the wider acceptance of lateral flow tests for controlling the pandemic.

A novel analysis of the Pfizer trial:vaccine effectiveness was nowhere near 95%

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 5 implied HN points • 24 Nov 25
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. The Pfizer vaccine may not prevent infections but only reduce symptoms in those already infected. This means vaccinated people could still get sick without showing symptoms.
  2. The claim that the vaccine was 95% effective against infection is based on flawed assumptions. It assumes that infections were detected equally and that vaccines prevent infections, which may not be true.
  3. Real-world data shows many fully vaccinated people experienced breakthrough infections, suggesting the vaccine's impact on stopping infection was likely very small or none.

Understanding mysterious outbreaks

Force of Infection • 70 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. Mysterious outbreaks often fall into three categories: known diseases, rare diseases, and completely new diseases. It's important to understand these categories to respond effectively.
  2. The most common cause of an outbreak is usually a known disease that flares up, especially in areas with poor healthcare resources. These can be serious but are often easier to manage.
  3. Outbreaks of rare or new diseases are the most concerning. They require quick action because they can be very dangerous and might not have available treatments or vaccines.

Outbreak Outlook - National - Nov 11

Force of Infection • 67 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. Covid-19 levels are low in most areas, but there are still slight increases, especially in the Midwest. Make sure you're keeping an eye on your health and any symptoms.
  2. Influenza-like illness is starting to rise, particularly in young children, as we move into flu season. If you haven't gotten your flu vaccine yet, now is a good time to do so.
  3. Norovirus is currently higher in some regions, but it has dropped slightly overall. It's a reminder to keep practicing good hygiene, especially during this time of year.

Outbreak Outlook - October 7

Force of Infection • 73 implied HN points • 07 Oct 24
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. Flu activity is low across the country, especially among young children. Only a small percentage of doctor visits are for flu-like symptoms.
  2. Covid-19 cases are on the decline, with fewer emergency visits and hospitalizations in many regions. Wastewater data shows a calming trend in most areas.
  3. Norovirus cases are rising, particularly in the Southern region, with test positivity increasing. It's important to stay updated on food recalls related to health risks.

The Grace of Dr. Jay

A Biologist's Guide to Life • 52 implied HN points • 29 Dec 24
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. Dr. Jay Bhattacharya is important because he promotes open discussions in science, even when there are differing opinions. His approach helps to maintain trust in scientific research during tough times.
  2. During the pandemic, some scientists faced harsh criticisms and censorship for their views. It’s essential to remember that different ideas can help us all understand complex situations better.
  3. The future of health science needs leaders like Jay, who exemplify curiosity and kindness. These qualities can foster better communication and collaboration in tackling public health challenges.

Outbreak Outlook - October 21

Force of Infection • 67 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. Covid-19 cases are low nationally, but there might be a slight increase in the Northeast. Hospitalizations are at a low level across the country.
  2. Norovirus is increasing in rates, especially in the South where it has reached higher levels than in the last two years.
  3. Influenza-like illnesses are up slightly, particularly among young children, but overall activity remains low.

The $3.3M debate: Wilf fails to falsify KCOR's determination that the COVID vaccine caused net harm

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 4 implied HN points • 25 Nov 25
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. The KCOR method shows that getting more COVID vaccine doses is linked to higher mortality rates. This suggests that the vaccines might have caused more harm than good for some people.
  2. The evidence from the Czech Republic's data is strong and consistent, showing a clear difference in mortality rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. The methodology used in the analysis has been checked and found reliable.
  3. The debate over the COVID vaccine's effects may not fully consider the data. It's important for judges and decision-makers to focus on the evidence rather than get confused by complex arguments.

Outbreak Outlook - National - Nov 24

Force of Infection • 59 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. Influenza-like illness is rising, especially in young children, as we approach the busy holiday season. It's expected to hit the national baseline soon.
  2. COVID-19 activity is currently low across the country, with minimal emergency department visits and hospitalizations remaining low.
  3. As Thanksgiving approaches, be cautious about norovirus transmission, especially when preparing food for others. It's best to avoid cooking for others for a few days after being sick.

URGENT: Cancer deaths rose in Japan in 2022 and 2023, post-mRNA Covid shots

Unreported Truths • 43 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. In Japan, cancer deaths rose by about 12,000 more than expected in 2022 and 2023. This increase is small but considered statistically significant.
  2. Leukemia was the type of cancer that had the highest increase in deaths, showing an 8% rise each year. The timing of this rise coincided with the rollout of mRNA Covid vaccines.
  3. While researchers can't definitively link the rise in cancer deaths to the vaccines, they stressed the need for a thorough investigation due to the patterns observed.

Bubonic Plague in Seattle

Street Smart Naturalist: Explorations of the Urban Kind • 99 implied HN points • 27 Oct 22
🔬 Science Epidemiology
  1. Rats have been a part of Seattle since European settlers arrived, often arriving by ship. They are common due to Seattle's coastal location and trash management issues.
  2. In 1908, Seattle had an outbreak of bubonic plague linked to rats and their fleas. The city took serious measures to control the rat population to prevent further outbreaks.
  3. Today, Seattle is still known for having a lot of rats. Many people unknowingly create good homes for them by not managing overgrown plants like ivy.

Outbreak Outlook - National - Dec 9

Force of Infection • 53 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. There is an increase in influenza-like illnesses, especially among young children. Outpatient visits for these symptoms have gone up recently.
  2. COVID-19 activity remains low across the country, but there are signs it could pick up soon in certain regions. Hospitalizations are currently at the lowest levels of the past year.
  3. Norovirus cases are on the rise, with the highest rates in the West. It's important to keep washing your hands to stay healthy.

The single most convincing COVID vaccine harm signal to date

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 13 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. Every time a new dose of the COVID vaccine was given, mortality rates increased in vaccinated individuals. This suggests a strong link between the vaccine and harm.
  2. Data from Koganei, Japan, shows that unvaccinated people had stable mortality rates, while those who received the vaccine showed increased death rates. This is seen as clear evidence of vaccine harm.
  3. Despite the evidence, many in the medical community may be hesitant to acknowledge these findings due to job security and fear of losing their licenses.

How can the number of deaths go down?

Force of Infection • 46 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. The number of reported deaths can change a lot during disease outbreaks. This usually happens because health officials are constantly updating their definitions of what counts as a case.
  2. When investigating an outbreak, new information can refine the case definitions. This means some earlier counts may go down as they find more accurate cases.
  3. Different reports might count cases in various ways, leading to inconsistent numbers. Some reports include all suspected cases, while others only look at confirmed ones.

Outbreak Outlook - October 14

Force of Infection • 54 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. Covid-19 cases are decreasing across the country, with many states reporting low activity, especially in the Western region.
  2. Norovirus is on the rise, particularly in the South, and it can cause stomach pain and vomiting. Good hand hygiene is important to prevent its spread.
  3. Colds and respiratory viruses are becoming more common as the cold season starts, so it's important to stay vigilant about hygiene and health.

How Effective Are Vaccines Targeted To Respiratory Viruses?

Unmasked • 50 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. The media and some leaders push a strong message that everyone should get vaccinated against respiratory viruses. This view has become widely accepted, even if it might not be entirely based on evidence.
  2. Many claims about the consequences of not getting vaccinated, like severe illness and death, turned out to be exaggerated. This raises questions about the truth behind the common vaccination messaging.
  3. There is a growing concern that the push for universal vaccination against all respiratory viruses may be an overreach, not fully supported by scientific evidence about their effectiveness.

$2,000 challenge: find a mistake in the KCOR algorithm

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 2 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. A $2,000 public challenge asks someone to identify a material methodological flaw in the KCOR algorithm for Czech mortality data and to propose a better analysis with a reproducible test.
  2. KCOR defines fixed cohorts at a single enrollment date, excludes the first two weeks, prohibits censoring or switching, converts weekly deaths to continuous hazards, normalizes hazard shapes, and estimates effects as the ratio of cumulative hazards versus a non-COVID baseline.
  3. To win you must demonstrate a coding-independent conceptual error that makes KCOR produce a materially incorrect inference on a realistic control test and convince the organizer (via a ChatGPT vetting step); many common objections or limitations don’t qualify.

How to talk to mRNA fanatics

Unreported Truths • 43 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. Many people are starting to question the effectiveness of mRNA vaccines, as fewer are getting vaccinated this year compared to previous years. Some areas show a significant drop in vaccinations.
  2. Proponents of mRNA vaccines often rely on a chart that claims vaccinated people had lower death rates from COVID-19. However, this chart has flaws and doesn't tell the full story.
  3. It's important to address these discussions in a way that acknowledges some ground without giving up key points about vaccine safety and effectiveness.

Answering reader questions on H5N1

Force of Infection • 35 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
🏥 Health Politics Epidemiology
  1. There are strong surveillance systems in place for detecting H5N1 and other influenza viruses, which helps identify outbreaks among humans quickly.
  2. While experts are confident about detecting severe H5N1 cases in hospitals, some mild cases may go unnoticed in outpatient settings.
  3. Global surveillance for H5N1 is uneven; some countries have great systems while others are less prepared, making it important to stay alert to potential cases everywhere.