Logging the World

Logging the World explores the application of mathematics and statistics to understand global and societal trends, particularly focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines data trends, variant impacts, policy implications, and personal stories, aiming to demystify complex issues for a general audience while occasionally touching on broader mathematical concepts.

COVID-19 Analysis Data Interpretation Mathematics in Society Health Policy Personal Experiences Social Media Dynamics Educational Policies Statistical Methods

The hottest Substack posts of Logging the World

And their main takeaways

Long COVID moonshot

877 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Long Covid Advocacy Research
  1. Perceptions of Long COVID statistics may be misleading when not considering factors like vaccination and immunity
  2. The severity of COVID infections might be linked to the likelihood of developing Long COVID
  3. Long COVID advocacy could benefit from focusing on providing treatment and research for those suffering long-term effects

Managed decline

418 implied HN points • 25 Feb 24
📖 Philosophy Narrative Luck Life lessons Career
  1. Spurious precision in quantifying data can lead to misleading conclusions. It's important to question the validity and relevance of highly specific measurements.
  2. Success in fields like sports, work, or academia is influenced by luck and chance. It's crucial to acknowledge these factors in evaluating performance and outcomes.
  3. Random events play a significant role in everyone's career. It's essential to maintain perspective during both highs and lows, understanding the impact of chance in long-term success.

Malcolm in the middle (well, at the beginning)

299 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
🔬 Science Communication Mathematics Education
  1. Using interesting anecdotes or 'Malcolms' at the beginning can engage a wider audience and make complex topics more appealing.
  2. Balancing academic style writing with engaging storytelling can make science communication more effective and impactful.
  3. Integrating rhetorical tricks and interesting facts can drive curiosity and encourage broader audiences to explore complex subjects.

Brief JN.1 wave update

777 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Health data
  1. There is evidence of a significant peak in infections before Christmas, but recent data shows a convincing decrease post that peak.
  2. The observation of lower hospitalization rates amidst the estimated number of infections suggests a positive trend in managing the virus.
  3. The shape of the curve in future weeks is uncertain, but overall, the current situation seems to indicate no significant exponential growth in infections.

ZOE balls

398 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
🔬 Science Polling Trends Covid data
  1. Opinion polling can be challenging due to issues with representativeness, such as demographic bias and sampling errors.
  2. Trends in polling data can be stable over time, and short-term fluctuations may not always indicate significant changes.
  3. Subsamples in polling data can lead to wider margins of error and may not always provide accurate insights, caution is advised when interpreting this data.
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The Edge is Everything

916 implied HN points • 01 Jan 24
🎾 Sports Team performance
  1. Success in certain fields involves embracing the inevitability of failure but still pushing forward. Learn from losses and keep striving for improvement.
  2. Professional sports, like snooker and football, exhibit high levels of competition, making it challenging for individuals to maintain dominance consistently.
  3. Setting realistic goals, acknowledging setbacks, and focusing on continuous improvement are key to long-term success, even when faced with challenges and unpredictability.

Dom and subs

1734 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government COVID-19 Response Public Figures Media Coverage
  1. The recent inquiry involving Dominic Cummings felt like a repeat of past events, with little new information emerging.
  2. The popular narrative about Cummings' role in the COVID response may not align with the evidence, suggesting he was supportive of strict measures.
  3. The discussion around the COVID response should focus on the systemic failures and critical decisions made, rather than getting lost in political dramas and minor details.

JN.1 - how worried should you be?

737 implied HN points • 18 Dec 23
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Health data Preventive measures Public Health
  1. A new faster-growing variant, JN.1, has emerged from the BA.2.86 family, showing potential for significant impact on COVID trends.
  2. The growth rate of JN.1 suggests a concerning pattern of exponential increase over time, raising alarm for future hospital admissions.
  3. Changing social behaviors post-Christmas may lead to a potential decrease in overall growth rates, impacting the severity of future COVID waves.

Kelce grammar

299 implied HN points • 03 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics American culture Election Analysis Republican party
  1. The post discusses the impact of the JN.1 wave and the implications for COVID-19 infections, admissions, and deaths.
  2. Upcoming in-person talks by the author in different locations are highlighted, emphasizing the return to normalcy and connecting with audiences.
  3. The American football documentary 'Kelce' is explored, focusing on the themes of personal sacrifices, risks, family dynamics, and the portrayal of masculinity in the modern context.

Putting one foot in front of another

976 implied HN points • 21 Oct 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Physical health Mental health Exercise Nature Well-being
  1. Taking 10,000 steps daily can benefit physical and mental health by providing fresh air, exercise, and a change of scenery.
  2. Walking at a slower pace allows for a better connection with the surroundings, noticing details like street art and wildlife.
  3. Embarking on longer walks can lead to unique experiences, connections with landscapes, and a sense of personal achievement.

You know nothing, John Snow

538 implied HN points • 13 Dec 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Public Health Mental health
  1. The Zero COVID messaging may be targeting activities like brunch and Christmas parties as risky, while overlooking more dangerous professions that face higher COVID risks.
  2. Lockdown experiences were not equal, with some having professional jobs that were easier to adapt while others faced risks from working in less safe environments like warehouses or factories.
  3. There is a class divide in how COVID risks are perceived, with some people able to prioritize safety measures while others faced greater risks due to the nature of their work.

Year-on-year COVID comparisons

1056 implied HN points • 01 Oct 23
🏥 Health Politics COVID-19 Data Analysis Public Health Vaccination Epidemiology
  1. Overall, COVID admissions and death rates in 2023 are lower than the corresponding days in 2022, suggesting positive progress in managing the virus.
  2. Comparisons of primary beds occupied 'for COVID' show similar positive trends in 2023 compared to 2022, indicating improved conditions.
  3. The data suggests that in 2023, COVID outcomes have improved significantly compared to previous years, with lower deaths and better management, showcasing progress in handling the pandemic.

Qualified immunity

458 implied HN points • 26 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Covid response Herd Immunity
  1. The discussion around qualified immunity, Great Barrington Declaration, and herd immunity during the COVID-19 pandemic raised complexities and challenges in their practical implementation.
  2. Patrick Vallance's statement on 'building up some kind of herd immunity' during the early stages of the pandemic was scrutinized, highlighting the complexity and potential consequences of different approaches.
  3. The importance of vaccines in ending the pandemic was emphasized, while also prompting consideration of alternative strategies if vaccines were not available.

Self-indulgent anniversary post

518 implied HN points • 04 Nov 23
📰 News COVID-19 Education Statistics Social media Government
  1. The author reflects on their first year on Substack, the experience of a post going viral, and their content on COVID and other topics.
  2. The post discusses the author's favorite non-COVID topics including a clever idea, an education policy, and the joys of walking.
  3. The article highlights the impact of a post on Dominic Cummings boosting views, emphasizes the unpredictable nature of virality, and teases future discussions on the UK COVID Inquiry.

Hospitals, BA.2.86, schools, Twitter, teaching

637 implied HN points • 24 Sep 23
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Mental health Teaching
  1. COVID optimism might be on the rise based on recent data trends like the BA.2.86 growth rates and hospital investigations.
  2. Studies show a concerning decline in mental health among school children during the pandemic, indicating the need for better support.
  3. Personal experiences such as being locked out of social media and starting a large teaching session can affect one's daily routine.

Two cautionary tales about BA.2.86

478 implied HN points • 07 Oct 23
🔬 Science Research Epidemiology Vaccines Public Health
  1. Don't just look at proportions, consider sample sizes too. Confidence intervals are important when dealing with limited data.
  2. Focus on the bigger picture when it comes to analyzing new variants. Growth rates matter.
  3. Instead of fixating on one variant, keep an eye on other potentially impactful variants as well. The situation is constantly evolving.

COVID graphs update

438 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
🏥 Health Politics
  1. Recent data from Denmark suggests a potentially promising trajectory for the new BA.2.86 variant.
  2. There are indications that the growth of the EG.5.1 variant in the UK may be slowing down.
  3. Optimism is tempered with a reminder of humility and uncertainty in predicting the future trajectory of COVID.

Summertime Blues

518 implied HN points • 23 Jul 23
🏥 Health Politics Public Health COVID-19 Pandemic response Vaccine Social media
  1. Lockdown restrictions have mostly been dismantled in the UK, returning to normalcy post-COVID.
  2. It's important to allow young people to enjoy festivals and parties after putting aspects of their lives on hold during the pandemic, despite public health concerns.
  3. Language around illness as punishment can lead to harmful judgments and biases in healthcare and society.

BA.2.86 growth rates

418 implied HN points • 23 Aug 23
🔬 Science Statistics Genetics Epidemiology Research Mathematics
  1. New COVID variant BA.2.86 has mutations that suggest fast growth, but estimating its growth rate is tricky.
  2. Statisticians use models and likelihood functions to estimate parameters like growth rates, but uncertainty exists in the estimates.
  3. The work of statistician C.R. Rao, like the Fisher information, shows fundamental limits to parameter estimation and the role of geometry in statistics.

Maths until 18

418 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
🚌 Education Mathematics Teaching Curriculum
  1. The proposal for compulsory math education until age 18 in the UK received mixed reactions, highlighting the importance of making math appealing and accessible to a wide audience.
  2. Implementing math education until 18 requires consideration of factors like shortage of math teachers and effective delivery methods such as leveraging online resources.
  3. Math education should cover areas such as practical number skills, understanding uncertainty and randomness, and exploring connections between math and other subjects like art and music.

COVID 2023 (part 1)

538 implied HN points • 01 Jul 23
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID Evolution Admissions Long Covid
  1. COVID numbers in 2023 are significantly lower than previous years, with restrictions lifted and admissions decreasing for months.
  2. 2023 has been relatively quiet in terms of new COVID variants, with no significant growth in headline variants, but the possibility of an evolution remains.
  3. While concerns about future COVID waves persist, it is suggested to enjoy the present moment and not overly worry about potential scenarios.

Rage against the machine

458 implied HN points • 14 Jul 23
🕹 Technology Social media Content creation Monetization Audience Building Online behavior
  1. The competition for attention on social media has evolved over time, with platforms now offering monetary rewards for content creators based on ad views.
  2. Twitter's new payment system incentivizes generating 5 million page impressions in 3 months, potentially leading to a culture of provocative and controversial content for profit.
  3. Platforms like Substack provide an alternative space for creators to build an audience and share longer, thoughtful pieces outside the cycle of inflammatory content and hate clicks.

The 78 per cent solution

378 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Long Covid Risk Assessment
  1. A recent study found heart abnormalities in 78 out of 100 people who recovered from COVID within 2-3 months, but this data comes from a sample of the sickest patients which might not be representative of the general population
  2. The Sports Illustrated claim of 78% heart abnormalities risk may not be applicable to current conditions due to the study predating vaccines and omicron, raising concerns about drawing conclusions from outdated research
  3. It's crucial to consider the context and representative sample when interpreting statistics, like looking at more recent data from sources like the UK Office for National Statistics to understand the risks of Long COVID

Genius in turbulent times

418 implied HN points • 05 Jul 23
🔬 Science Mathematics History Biology Diversity
  1. Genius can be found in lesser-known figures like Kolmogorov, who made significant contributions to mathematics and other fields.
  2. Kolmogorov's work on probability theory and the Kolmogorov-Arnold theorem had a lasting impact on mathematics and even underpins modern AI algorithms.
  3. Kolmogorov's life was not only marked by academic achievements but also by navigating personal challenges, such as opposing Lysenkoism and living as an openly gay man in Stalinist Russia.

How to read a variant article

498 implied HN points • 16 May 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Immunity Vaccines Public Health
  1. When reading articles about COVID variants, pay attention to which experts are being referenced and their specific expertise to evaluate the credibility of the information.
  2. Consider the rate of growth in absolute numbers and calibrate it against recent omicron waves to understand the impact of a new variant.
  3. Take early alarming estimates of growth rates with caution, as it may not reflect the long-term impact until the variant reaches a significant market share.

Brief bonus COVID update

498 implied HN points • 20 Apr 23
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Health data
  1. There is a new COVID variant called XBB.1.16, but it may not be as alarming as headlines suggest, with a modest transmission advantage in comparison to previous variants.
  2. The severity of the XBB.1.16 variant is not significantly higher than previous waves, and it currently has a low presence in the UK.
  3. Overall, the impact of the XBB.1.16 variant is expected to be relatively small, akin to ripples rather than a major wave like previous dominant variants.

Four ways of thinking

199 implied HN points • 28 Sep 23
🔬 Science Mathematics Complexity Statistics Chaos Evolution
  1. The book 'Four Ways of Thinking' by David Sumpter discusses four philosophies that map onto the four types of cellular automata identified by Stephen Wolfram, with historical anecdotes and life lessons.
  2. The book explores statistical, interactive, chaotic, and complex ways of thinking, connecting topics like cellular automata, chaos theory, and modern statistics with practical applications.
  3. David Sumpter's book introduces the complexity of modern mathematical research, showcasing the emergence of complicated behavior from simple rules and the fascinating concept of quantifying complexity in patterns.

The plot thickens

378 implied HN points • 21 Jun 23
🏥 Health Politics COVID-19 Pandemic Government Response Public Health
  1. Understanding the threat level of a COVID variant depends on its market share and growth rate, which both influence its impact on overall spread.
  2. A variant's position on a graph based on market share and growth rate can indicate potential future trouble - ones in the top right corner can pose significant problems.
  3. Current observations suggest a positive outlook with low and decreasing hospital numbers, along with no imminent variants posing a threat in the next few weeks.

XL Bully carbon pawprint

179 implied HN points • 13 Sep 23
🌞 Climate & Environment Carbon Footprint Climate Impact Environmental sustainability
  1. American Bully XL dogs can have a significant carbon footprint due to their diet, which can be comparable to the emissions of energy-rich European countries.
  2. Feeding an American Bully XL 1 kilo of UK beef per day could result in over 7 tonnes of CO2 emissions per year.
  3. The carbon footprint of owning a large dog like an American Bully XL is significant and should be considered in discussions about sustainability.

The Social Network (Part 1)

358 implied HN points • 10 Apr 23
🔬 Science Social Networks Interactions
  1. Networks can be represented by vertices (dots) and edges (lines connecting dots) to show relationships, such as friendships.
  2. The size of the largest connected component in a network is important for social media networks to prevent isolation and promote the spread of ideas.
  3. There is a critical level of interaction for social networks, above and below which functionality can dramatically change, impacting how ideas flow and network connectivity.

Return of the mask?

358 implied HN points • 30 Apr 23
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Public Health Masks Infections Prevention
  1. Masks may help reduce COVID spread, but their impact could be limited. Calls for widespread mask-wearing may not significantly alter infection rates and could be less effective than expected.
  2. Clarity in messaging is crucial. Different perspectives within organizations like Independent SAGE can lead to confusion in public health recommendations. Consistent and clear communication is essential for effective response.
  3. Temporary return to mask-wearing might not have a significant long-term impact. Adherence to such measures could be short-lived and may not prevent exponential growth unless sustained over time.

Base! How low can you go?

338 implied HN points • 06 May 23
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Immunity Vaccinations
  1. The concern now is about the rising baseline of COVID infections, not just the peak waves.
  2. The occupancy of COVID beds has decreased since the Omicron variant, with fewer 'for COVID' patients compared to 'with' patients.
  3. The picture of COVID trends shows various spikes with falling peaks, hinting at potential further decreases in primary beds occupied in the upcoming weeks.

Being wrong and the Hitler diaries

338 implied HN points • 26 Mar 23
  1. You can't always trust academic reputations; titles don't guarantee correctness. Great analysis can come from unexpected sources.
  2. Even if someone is unpleasant, they may still be right. Truth isn't defined by the character of the person sharing it.
  3. Watch out for self-deception; we're the easiest to fool. Be open-minded and avoid confirming what you already believe.

UK COVID data, week starting 6th February

378 implied HN points • 09 Feb 23
🏥 Health Politics
  1. ZOE COVID data was rebased, leading to a pause in daily incidence numbers discussion
  2. Monitoring variant percentages like CH1.1, XBB.1.5, and XBB.1.9.1 indicates growth rates and competitive advantages
  3. Recent UK COVID admissions data suggests a slower growth pattern compared to previous waves

The end of COVID, the end of Twitter

318 implied HN points • 05 Apr 23
🕹 Technology Social media Influence User Experience
  1. COVID-19 has not completely disappeared despite initial hopes and expectations. Immunity wanes, new variants emerge, and the impact lingers on.
  2. Twitter's influence may be declining over time due to fewer interesting user interactions and issues with the platform's experience. The network effects that once made it influential are fading.
  3. Legacy brands like Twitter may persist even after a decline, existing in a different form and continuing to have some relevance in the future.

UK COVID data, week starting 9th January

418 implied HN points • 12 Jan 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Covid data
  1. The weekly COVID data in the UK shows a decreasing trend in cases and hospital admissions.
  2. The XBB.1.5 variant is increasing its market share in the UK but has not yet caused a significant uptick in cases.
  3. Localized spikes in COVID cases may not always translate to a significant impact on hospital admissions due to reporting bias and small sample sizes.

UK COVID data, week starting 16th January

398 implied HN points • 19 Jan 23
🏥 Health Politics Covid data
  1. ZOE estimated COVID incidence has dropped significantly in just one week, down 64% from its peak at the start of the year.
  2. The XBB.1.5 variant is still increasing but at a slower rate, showing a flattening curve in growth.
  3. Hospital admissions for COVID are decreasing rapidly.