An Africanist Perspective

An Africanist Perspective provides in-depth analysis of African political economy, governance, and international relations, with a focus on economic challenges, political instability, elections, foreign policy dynamics, governance reforms, and regional security issues. It evaluates Africa's interactions with global powers, development strategies, and geopolitical shifts.

Political Economy Governance and Democracy International Relations Economic Development Regional Security Foreign Policy Electoral Politics Conflict and Peacebuilding Infrastructure and Industrialization Resource Management Healthcare Systems Agricultural Policy

The hottest Substack posts of An Africanist Perspective

And their main takeaways

Recognizing Somaliland

2077 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics
  1. Ethiopia is likely to recognize Somaliland, which could have significant geopolitical implications for the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region.
  2. The agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland involves port access and a naval base on the Gulf of Aden, potentially leading to Ethiopia recognizing Somaliland as a sovereign state.
  3. Recognition of Somaliland by Ethiopia could spark regional reactions and influence Somalia, Kenya, and the UAE to recognize Somaliland as a state.

Africa in 2024

2117 implied HN points • 01 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Elections Economy Conflict Infrastructure Leadership
  1. Africa in 2024 will see tough economic times, with debt distress, moderate growth, and challenges in inflation and household purchasing power.
  2. Several African countries will hold pivotal elections in 2024, with notable contests in Botswana, Ghana, Mozambique, Namibia, Senegal, and South Africa.
  3. Elite political instability and conflicts are expected to persist in regions such as Central Africa, the Horn, and the Sahel, with specific countries facing ongoing challenges while others remain stable.

Is there an "Africa penalty" in sovereign ratings by credit agencies?

831 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Global Markets
  1. African economies like Kenya, Benin, and Cote d'Ivoire are showing positive signs with oversubscribed Eurobonds, indicating a possible end to fiscal squeezes and future growth.
  2. There is criticism against credit rating agencies for their negative biases towards African sovereigns, highlighting issues like limited in-country knowledge, pro-cyclical downgrades, and high baseline borrowing costs.
  3. African countries face information challenges due to their informal economies and limited policy autonomy, hampering accurate signals to credit markets. Improving transparency, building credibility, and enhancing understanding between governments and rating agencies are crucial for economic growth.

Civil War in Sudan

1009 implied HN points • 23 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Civil War Conflict resolution Economic Development Identity politics
  1. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are gaining momentum in Sudan's civil war, indicating a shift in power from the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). This may lead to increased violence and further fragmentation within the country.
  2. Sudan's long history of identity politics and development policies centered around the riverain core have contributed to the current civil war. The failure to incorporate marginalized groups has led to years of instability and conflict.
  3. The internationalization of the conflict in Sudan involves foreign actors supporting different factions, which complicates efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution. A negotiated settlement that involves power-sharing between military factions and civilian leadership could be the best way forward.

Africa’s 2023 Year in Review

1167 implied HN points • 28 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics Africa Climate Economy Foreign Investment
  1. Reforms in Nigeria's petroleum sector can have a significant impact on the regional economy.
  2. African countries face challenges in navigating the political economy of energy and climate change, impacting their energy future.
  3. Increased Gulf cash and influence in Africa poses both investment opportunities and risks for African economies.
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The case for keeping Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger within ECOWAS

356 implied HN points • 24 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Security
  1. Landlocked countries like Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger depend heavily on coastal ECOWAS states for trade, and leaving ECOWAS could lead to economic and logistical challenges that may affect the movement of goods, people, and migrant workers.
  2. There is a historical precedent of military coups in the Sahel region that ECOWAS leaders need to consider when deciding how to handle the situation, including the need for constructive dialogue and understanding the motivations behind the putschists.
  3. The current crisis in ECOWAS highlights the challenges that African regional economic communities and the African Union will face as individual countries are pulled in different directions by global powers, emphasizing the need for regional unity and effective diplomacy.

Putting the recent coups in the Sahel in broader perspective

1761 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Democracy Geopolitics Sovereignty
  1. The recent coups in the Sahel are not just about democratic backsliding, but also reflect state-building failures and shaky sovereignty, with conflicting incentives among various actors
  2. Public support for military intervention in politics in some of these countries indicates frustration with the failures of democracy to deliver, highlighting the need for meaningful change and democratic consolidation
  3. The discourse on self-determination arising from the current crisis presents an opportunity to rethink governance, repair social contracts, and foster local solutions to regional challenges in the Sahel

The Museveni Succession

732 implied HN points • 13 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics Authoritarianism
  1. Leaders in African countries face structural limits to their power and struggle to transform societies due to economic and social realities.
  2. Museveni's long tenure as Uganda's president has led to a decay in institutions, reliance on authoritarianism, and a failure to build a strong nation or economy.
  3. The succession dilemma in Uganda involves the options of a successor from outside the west, potential elite defections, or passing power to Museveni's son, each carrying different risks and implications.

Ethiopia needs a reliable seaport and a navy

732 implied HN points • 03 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics Navy Economic Security Transport
  1. Ethiopia needs a reliable seaport and navy to secure its economic future and overcome the costs associated with being landlocked.
  2. Access to a reliable seaport is crucial for Ethiopia's trade-driven output growth, industrialization, and agricultural exports.
  3. Considering historical and geopolitical challenges, building a navy is essential for Ethiopia to protect its economic interests, secure seaport treaties, and deter aggression from rivals.

Making sense of the coup in Gabon

1147 implied HN points • 01 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Coup Africa Democracy Economy
  1. In Gabon, the recent coup was essentially a palace coup, with the president being ousted by the head of the presidential guard, and while there is popular discontent against the ruling family, evidence of a revolution was not clear.
  2. The coup in Gabon reflects deep dissatisfaction with the ruling family and the electoral process, with high levels of disapproval towards the former president as well as distrust towards the electoral commission.
  3. Compared to Sahelian coups, the situation in Gabon differs significantly due to factors such as its higher urbanization rate, richer economy, and demographic characteristics that could potentially pave the way for a more stable transition to competitive electoral politics.

The United States should decouple it’s West Africa policy from France

1128 implied HN points • 19 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Foreign Relations Diplomacy
  1. Decoupling the United States' West Africa policy from France could benefit both sides by strengthening relations and providing mutual economic and geopolitical advantages.
  2. The rise in anti-French sentiment in Africa could lead to a wider anti-West sentiment, potentially impacting America's standing in the region and relationships with individual African countries.
  3. Public opinion in African states is becoming increasingly important in shaping foreign policy decisions, highlighting the need for major global powers to have capable allies and engage meaningfully with the region.

How Ghana escaped the coup trap

1048 implied HN points • 28 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics
  1. Coup traps can be escaped with time and coordinated efforts.
  2. Ghana's successful escape from coup traps involved violent consolidation, institutionalizing politics, and depoliticizing the military.
  3. Lessons from Ghana's experience provide insight for other countries with coup risks, emphasizing the importance of time, popular mobilization, and institutionalizing politics.

There is an urgent need to unlock labor productivity in African economies

613 implied HN points • 19 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Economic Development Debt crisis Trade
  1. African economies are facing a decline in growth rates due to reliance on commodity exports and insufficient wage job creation, with potential negative implications for the future.
  2. Policymakers must find a delicate balance to prevent liquidity crises from turning into solvency crises, focus on revitalizing economic dynamism in major economies like Nigeria and South Africa, and prioritize intra-Africa trade for economic growth.
  3. The decline in labor productivity in African countries is a significant challenge, requiring urgent attention and structural reforms to promote domestic commercial revolutions and create more jobs.

On America's structural inability to effectively compete with China in Africa

1345 implied HN points • 27 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics Africa USA China Foreign Aid Diplomacy
  1. The US faces challenges competing with China in Africa due to ineffective policy tools and institutions.
  2. America's focus on humanitarian aid and public health through USAID limits its ability to compete effectively with China in infrastructure and commercial projects in Africa.
  3. The structural and institutional biases within American foreign policy result in a lack of attention to African priorities, hindering the ability to effectively engage with the continent.

In Africa, Russia is playing the West like a fiddle

573 implied HN points • 09 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Global South Sovereignty Foreign Policy International relations
  1. Russia's influence in Africa is hyped up in Western media compared to its actual economic and military ties with African states.
  2. African states respond to Russia based on their specific interests and not as puppets, often driven by the desire to access resources at lower costs, especially amidst economic constraints.
  3. African nations should be cautious not to overly rely on Russia militarily or economically, aiming to prioritize domestic sovereignty and economic growth by carefully considering policy decisions and avoid getting deeply entwined with Russia.

A Dying Françafrique?

949 implied HN points • 22 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Foreign influence Power Dynamics
  1. France's influence in its former African colonies is declining significantly, with protests against the CFA currency and reminders of colonial history weakening French ties.
  2. France is no longer the dominant power in francophone Africa, as China has become the largest trade partner and countries like Central African Republic and Mali are forging closer security ties with Russia.
  3. The erosion of economic dependency, the rise of new major power competitors, and the decline in voting similarity between France and its African colonies are key factors in the declining French influence in the region.

Is `Global Development' dead?

910 implied HN points • 11 May 23
🌍 World Politics Global Development
  1. There is a critique on the slow death of global development, focusing on the failures of the Western establishment, missing the economic changes in developing countries since the 1980s.
  2. The piece discusses the problem of deagrarianization and deindustrialization in many low-income countries, emphasizing the importance of industrialization for economic development.
  3. The narrative of perpetual stagnation in Africa and elsewhere in the developing world is challenged by highlighting significant improvements in developmental outcomes in the last three decades.

Reckoning with Guinea-Bissau’s enduring political and economic stagnation

593 implied HN points • 20 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics
  1. Guinea-Bissau's history highlights the danger of political decay after independence. The country's descent into personalist rule led to significant political and economic stagnation.
  2. Departicipation in African states, deliberately removing public engagement, has hindered political development. The lack of meaningful mobilization and ideology-based politics remains a challenge today.
  3. Guinea-Bissau's experience emphasizes missed opportunities for economic growth and development. Failure to manage competing elite interests and engage citizens led to enduring political instability and economic struggles.

Three Billion Africans

850 implied HN points • 10 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics Demographics Economics Governance Migration Urbanization
  1. African demographics are changing rapidly, with the population projected to reach over 3 billion by 2100. This growth will impact economics and politics, necessitating changes in agricultural practices, urbanization, and governance.
  2. The increase in Africa's population presents both challenges and opportunities. Rather than focusing on limiting population growth, empowering women, enhancing education, and investing in agriculture can drive economic growth.
  3. For Africa's economic takeoff, a focus on boosting agricultural productivity, urbanization, and intra-Africa trade is crucial. These areas have the potential to support the growing population and lead to sustainable economic development.

What exactly is South Africa getting from its diplomatic dalliance with Russia and other BRICS states?

692 implied HN points • 27 May 23
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy Geopolitics International relations Foreign Policy
  1. South Africa's exclusion from the G7 Summit suggests a decline in its global influence and ability to engage as a middle power.
  2. Historically, South Africa missed opportunities to establish itself as a key player in Africa, affecting its ability to leverage regional influence.
  3. To enhance its geopolitical position, South Africa can focus on building strong continental partnerships, particularly in sectors like trade, security, and climate issues.

The World Bank African Countries Need

613 implied HN points • 01 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics Development Data Collection International cooperation
  1. Low-income countries need the World Bank to focus on their real concerns to ensure program success.
  2. It's crucial for the World Bank to prioritize faster project implementation to avoid delays that disrupt policy planning and implementation in low-income countries.
  3. African countries should advocate for a World Bank that embraces big and transformative ideas, conducts better policy research, and improves data collection to accurately address the region's needs.

Natural resources and economic (under)development in Africa

613 implied HN points • 13 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics
  1. Becoming a resource billionaire in Africa is not as easy as it seems, and many rich individuals in the region are not from the natural resource sector.
  2. Africa's accessible natural resource wealth is often overstated globally, and the concentration of wealth in a few countries challenges the idea of widespread economic takeoff.
  3. The political economy surrounding natural resources in Africa makes it difficult for local elites to accumulate wealth, leading to foreign exploitation and limited reinvestment in the region's economy.

Understanding the economic foundations of ongoing protests in Kenya

376 implied HN points • 25 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics Protests Economic Crisis Political Dynamics
  1. Kenya is facing a severe cost-of-living crisis due to rising prices, stagnant wages, and new tax measures, leading to widespread protests.
  2. The protests in Kenya are not solely about economic grievances; they also represent shifts in intra-elite power struggles and perceptions of civic engagement.
  3. President William Ruto's management of economic challenges and political dynamics will define his presidency, with potential consequences for stability and public support.

The puzzling geopolitics of America's support for proposed World Bank reforms

573 implied HN points • 11 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Influence Global Development Reforms
  1. The US is supporting proposed World Bank reforms that shift focus from low-income countries to global public goods, risking a loss in policy influence worldwide.
  2. US structural influence through organizations like the World Bank reflects in policy decisions that align with US interests in low-income countries.
  3. Failure of the World Bank to prioritize needs of low-income countries could lead to a loss of influence for the US and the Bank in those regions.

On why I remain bullish on Nigeria

554 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics
  1. Leadership plays a key role in Nigeria's development, but systemic challenges like weak state structures and identity politics are bigger hurdles that need to be addressed.
  2. Nigeria faces significant challenges with endemic insecurity and a struggling economy, with high poverty rates and inefficient public spending being major concerns.
  3. Optimism for Nigeria's future lies in its political development, opportunities for subnational experimentation, and emerging structural reforms, indicating good enough foundations for progress.

An illustration of the high cost of low state (fiscal) capacity in Liberia

494 implied HN points • 28 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Fiscal policy Development Corruption
  1. The high cost of low state capacity in Liberia impacts public services and infrastructure, highlighting the need for economic growth over only focusing on governance and corruption.
  2. Poverty in Liberia severely limits the government's fiscal capacity, affecting its ability to provide public goods and services. The country's annual budget per capita is significantly lower than other regions, making it challenging to maintain essential services.
  3. The US Ambassador to Liberia pointed out significant mismanagement of funds in critical sectors like healthcare and education. This points to a need for better spending of allocated funds and an improvement in service delivery to benefit the citizens.

Cash crops, marketing boards, and agricultural policy failures in Africa

455 implied HN points • 18 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics Agriculture Development Trade Africa Policy
  1. Improving agricultural productivity in Africa is crucial for economic development. Policymakers need to shift towards policies that support small-scale farmers and focus on local value addition before exports.
  2. The role of the state in African agriculture needs to be reconsidered. Historical policies like marketing boards have had both positive and negative impacts, and there is a need for open-mindedness towards government involvement in the sector.
  3. African cash crop producers face challenges in benefiting from their produce due to the structure of international commodity markets. African governments must invest in value addition and convince buyers to support local processing to boost sectoral margins.

Policymakers in several African countries are on the wrong side of the medical professionals "brain drain" debate

415 implied HN points • 21 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Medical Professionals Training Policy Healthcare
  1. The shortage of medical professionals in several African countries is a real concern, with low physician-to-patient ratios impacting healthcare accessibility.
  2. Banning the emigration of medical professionals may not address the root causes of the shortage. Instead, investing in expanding training, wages, and incentives locally could be a more effective solution.
  3. Emigration of high-skilled professionals, like doctors, can be viewed as exporting high-skilled services and can potentially benefit both the sending and receiving countries through remittances and skill development.

Managing the coming lithium boom (and bust) in select African states

395 implied HN points • 08 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Mining Wealth Distribution Global Affairs Green Energy Resource Management
  1. African lithium-rich countries should focus on localizing refining and ownership structures to eliminate informational gaps with multinational companies as demand for lithium rises.
  2. Countries managing natural resources can benefit from strategies like diversifying economies, producing inputs for the sector, and adding value before export.
  3. African countries facing the lithium boom need to carefully navigate ownership structures, maximize value addition locally, and manage geopolitical pressures to make the most of their green metal deposits.

On conflict and peacebuilding in African states

376 implied HN points • 06 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics Conflict Peacebuilding Mercenaries
  1. Preventing conflicts in African states involves more than just promoting democracy and good governance; a deeper understanding of complex factors like identity, power dynamics, and economic incentives is crucial.
  2. African states' weakness and susceptibility to conflicts stem from historical and structural factors, like the maintenance of colonial borders and lack of incentives for strong state-building.
  3. To reduce conflict likelihood, African states should focus on improving rural governance, addressing international dimensions, localizing conflicts, and avoiding the use of mercenaries.

You Can't Eat Democracy

356 implied HN points • 16 Jan 23
🌍 World Politics Democracy Public Services
  1. Voters prioritize material outcomes in democracies. If democracies cannot address citizens' needs and improve their material conditions, they risk collapse.
  2. African democracies are facing challenges in delivering on their promises, leading to a decline in voter satisfaction with democracy, reflecting in part an erosion of legitimacy.
  3. To make democracy work in African states, it is essential to focus on building effective states beyond just electoral processes, align democracy with material motivations, and embrace the idea of decentralized and developmentalist democracy.

African Foreign Policy in a Multipolar Age

376 implied HN points • 22 Dec 22
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy Africa International relations Sovereignty Development
  1. Africa's growing population and demographic shift will increase its geopolitical importance in the future.
  2. African countries must focus on building strong states and state capacity to ensure physical safety, order, and effective regional cooperation.
  3. African leaders should be clear on their policy priorities, understand foreign actors' motivations, keep options open for partnerships, and promote healthy competition within Africa to advance the region's interests.

Is Somalia turning the corner?

296 implied HN points • 03 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics Conflict Diplomacy International relations Peace Security
  1. There is cause for cautious optimism in Somalia as book fairs in Mogadishu, a property boom, weakening of Al-Shabaab, and regional cooperation signal positive changes.
  2. Somalia has a complex history of conflicts and irredentist desires that have contributed to its state of instability since the 1970s.
  3. Ethiopia and Kenya have historically had conflicting interests in Somalia, aiming for a weak central government to serve their own security interests despite the need for peace and stability in the region.

Why haven't markets disciplined public finance management practices in African states?

277 implied HN points • 20 Jan 23
🌍 World Politics Debt crisis Political Economy
  1. African countries face high debt risks, diverting resources from critical areas like education and healthcare to debt servicing.
  2. The lack of market discipline in public finance management in African states can be attributed to factors like moral hazard involving foreign creditors and poor linkages to political institutions.
  3. Lessons learned from past debt crises emphasize the importance of democratizing public finance management and learning from mistakes to make smarter policy decisions.

What is the matter with South Africa?

178 implied HN points • 30 Jan 23
🌍 World Politics Government Corruption
  1. The promised benefits of ending apartheid in South Africa have not been realized, leading to economic and political challenges.
  2. Efforts such as Black Economic Empowerment and land redistribution programs have largely failed to address racial inequality in the country.
  3. Potential solutions for South Africa's economic rejuvenation include becoming a gateway to Africa and deregulating the informal economy to spur job creation.

The race to be the gateway to Eastern and Central Africa heats up

158 implied HN points • 23 Jan 23
🌍 World Politics Infrastructure Economic Development Logistics
  1. The competition between Kenya and Tanzania as gateways to Eastern and Central Africa involves extensive infrastructure plans to link landlocked countries to the sea.
  2. The economic challenges of landlocked countries in the region show a need for improved transportation infrastructure to reduce costs and boost trade.
  3. While Kenya has a head start in infrastructure, Tanzania's cost-effective land acquisition and political stability position it to potentially surpass Kenya in the long run.

African development in an era of climate change

158 implied HN points • 06 Jan 23
🌞 Climate & Environment Development Economic Impacts
  1. Poverty is not a viable climate strategy, as energy poor countries struggle with funding climate strategies and face worsening conditions over time.
  2. Access to energy resources is vital for economic development; African countries should focus on using available resources to ensure sustainable access to energy for their populations and industries.
  3. African countries must play geopolitical hardball to secure funds and technologies for energy transition and develop climate adaptation and mitigation strategies based on their unique challenges instead of adopting generic foreign policies.

Would Zanzibar have fared better (politically) as an independent state?

138 implied HN points • 12 Jan 23
🌍 World Politics Revolution Independence Nationalism
  1. Historical counterfactuals are hard to pinpoint, but there are reasons to believe Zanzibar benefited from union with Tanganyika.
  2. The political advantages of the union include political stability, avoiding Cold War meddling, and sidestepping potential brutal counter-revolution.
  3. The ongoing challenges within the Zanzibar-Tanganyika union suggest the 1964 revolution's effects are still being felt today.

Disruptive science has declined (might have bigger implications for social sciences)

138 implied HN points • 11 Jan 23
🔬 Science Research Papers Social Sciences
  1. Science is publishing more, but the disruptive nature of research papers has decreased, focusing more on incremental progress.
  2. The decline in disruptive science may have significant implications for social sciences, affecting the breadth and depth of new discoveries.
  3. To optimize 'real' discoveries in Africanist social sciences, researchers should embrace diverse research approaches, read and cite more African-based research, write more comprehensive books, and maintain long-term study in specific regions.

Overcoming the underwhelming history of America's Africa Policy

138 implied HN points • 04 Jan 23
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy Geopolitics International relations Diplomacy Global Affairs
  1. America's Africa Policy has been hindered by persistent bad habits and missed opportunities, such as neglecting to leverage connections with the large Black population for strategic alliances.
  2. There have been successes in US-Africa relations, like President George W. Bush's PEPFAR and various commercial initiatives, but the policy needs to prioritize state-building, support developmental agendas, and streamline objectives.
  3. To enhance US-Africa relations, it is crucial to align policy with African institutions, cultivate a strong domestic pro-Africa constituency, and acknowledge the region's significance in the global context.