The hottest Macroeconomics Substack posts right now

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"Economy Is In Recession": Only 181k Jobs Gained For All Of 2025

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 18 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Headline payrolls showed only 181,000 net jobs added in 2025 — about 15,000 per month — which is very weak and consistent with recessionary conditions.
  2. Large downward revisions removed roughly 1.2 million jobs from prior estimates, with monthly revisions averaging around 105k, making the recent labor picture much worse than initially reported.
  3. The year’s reported positive job growth depends largely on the BLS birth/death assumption (+1.15M), while actual measured job counts were negative, so most gains reflect model assumptions about new business formation rather than recorded hires.

The True Price For An Ounce of Gold: $20,275?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 36 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. If you divide the monetary base by Treasury gold holdings you get a "Gold Coverage Price" — using October 2025 numbers that comes to about $20,275 per ounce.
  2. The monetary base has ballooned while Treasury gold holdings have stagnated or fallen, so the implied gold price has risen sharply and would imply a large devaluation of the dollar if redemption were resumed.
  3. Making the dollar fully redeemable in gold would force fiscal discipline because new money couldn’t be created without more gold, but if markets doubted the switch a loss of confidence could trigger a crisis.

How to Look Smart On TV And Dumb in History

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 56 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Financial media often mocks and belittles warnings about structural risk because their incentives favor keeping the party going, so being early on a correct call can look like being wrong.
  2. Persistent central-bank interventions, debt monetization, and yield suppression create market distortions that eventually unwind, with bond markets a likely pressure point when they do.
  3. Gold and miners acted like effective insurance against those distortions, outperforming equities and validating skeptics who warned about asset inflation.

Macroeconomy Now Below "Stall Speed"?

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 484 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Job creation in the U.S. is slowing down, with only about 35,000 new jobs added each month lately. This is not enough to keep unemployment from rising.
  2. Inflation risks are still increasing, mainly due to trade issues and supply chain problems. These factors could lead to economic issues like stagflation, where both inflation and unemployment rise.
  3. There's a major boom in data-center construction, driven by AI investments. This is impacting prices and inflation, showing that certain sectors can create upward pressure on costs even when overall consumer demand isn't high.

The Case For A 30% Market Crash

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Markets are extremely overvalued and both stocks and bonds are heavily over-owned, making prices fragile and prone to a large correction.
  2. Weak consumer demand, speculative AI capex, rising tariffs, and a Fed tolerant of higher inflation together threaten profit margins and could force P/E multiples significantly lower.
  3. If multiples revert to more normal levels (around 17x), the S&P could drop over 30% even without an earnings decline, and a falling 'E' would make the crash much worse.
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December 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. The housing market is in a long, slow recovery: construction, rents, and prices are gradually rising and a housing shortage makes a conventional recession hard to trigger.
  2. Measured inflation is roughly at the 2% target once shelter is excluded, but recent CPI gains are mainly driven by rent/shelter and a bit of tariff-driven noise.
  3. Policy and shocks matter: tariffs and looser Fed policy could lift inflation again, but without a major shock or chaotic policy change the slow recovery should keep chugging along as new homebuilding slowly raises capacity.

Why Can’t I Have My Own Money Printer?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 40 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. If an individual could print money, they'd likely stop producing and live off others because printing is easier than earning, which creates money without creating goods or services.
  2. If everyone printed money, production would collapse and the economy would be flooded with worthless bills, since there would be lots of money but few goods to buy.
  3. The government can also create money and temporarily boost demand, but that too can't substitute for real production, raising a hard question about why private money printing is illegal while institutional money creation is allowed.

Macroeconomics: Some Defects

In My Tribe • 486 implied HN points • 29 May 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Macroeconomics often treats the economy like a simple factory that can be controlled centrally, but the reality is much more complex with many different goods and services. It's not just about one measure like GDP.
  2. Many economics students learn about macro without understanding the important role banks play in the economy. Banks help manage risks and their crises can lead to major economic downturns.
  3. Macroeconomic theories are often presented as timeless, but they should consider historical changes and events that shape the economy. Each economic crisis is unique and influenced by different circumstances over time.

BEWARE of Occam's Razor

Insight Axis • 731 implied HN points • 08 Oct 23
đź“– Philosophy Macroeconomics
  1. Occam's razor is a tool for finding the best explanations, not a one-size-fits-all solution. It should only be used in specific situations where competing explanations are equally valid.
  2. Good explanations are deep, broad, and hard to vary - not necessarily simple. Choosing simplicity over accuracy can lead to wrong conclusions, like favoring Newton's theory over Einstein's theory of relativity.
  3. Occam's razor can transfer complexity from explanations to objects, but doesn't always eliminate complexity. It's important to apply it correctly by selecting the explanation that avoids unnecessary complexity.

Levelling up my MMT (Part 1)

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 99 implied HN points • 18 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. The piece emphasizes deepening practical and conceptual understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) to 'level up' how the idea is used.
  2. It reflects on the tension between technocratic, expert-driven knowledge and democratic, public-facing uses of knowledge, and why that difference matters for policy.
  3. The write-up is presented as the first part of a paid, subscriber-focused series, signalling an ongoing, deliberate exploration rather than a one-off note.

Top Links 779 Tariffs, trade and macro balances. Taking stock of shock & Frostbite: How Refrigeration Changed our Food

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Tariffs can really hurt low-income families the most. This is because they often rely on affordable imported goods that might get more expensive.
  2. Trade balances are important to understand how countries interact economically. Keeping track of imports and exports helps to see if a country is doing well.
  3. Refrigeration has significantly changed how we handle food. It allows us to store food longer and reduce waste, making it easier to feed more people.

The US Must Return To A Gold Standard

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. The dollar has been heavily debased over time because the government and the Fed keep creating money, which erodes purchasing power and risks a currency collapse.
  2. Reinstating a gold standard—by promising future redeemability of dollars for gold at the market price and never suspending that promise—would force strict monetary discipline.
  3. Without a hard money anchor like gold, politicians will keep hiding the real costs of spending and war through inflation, so only a gold-based system can deliver lasting monetary stability.

Repost: Armed conflict investor survival guide

Klement on Investing • 6 implied HN points • 19 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Don’t panic — most geopolitical shocks don’t hurt equity performance beyond a few weeks, so avoid rushing to sell and consider buying risky assets when they dip.
  2. Use a simple checklist before acting: ask whether infrastructure is damaged, whether inflation will stay high, and whether real interest rates will shift, since each outcome calls for different sector decisions.
  3. Only make major portfolio changes if the effects are persistent (more than a year) on inflation, earnings, or rates; short-term market fear is usually noise and a buying opportunity.

Survival - for now

Comment is Freed • 76 implied HN points • 27 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. The budget was a survival-first choice: ministers avoided big political risks and didn’t raise earned income tax, relying instead on smaller, targeted tax changes and fiscal creep.
  2. That approach buys short-term stability — a relatively kind OBR forecast and targeted moves (like ending the two-child benefit limit) should prevent market panic and help keep poll ratings steady.
  3. But it mostly defers hard problems: weaker productivity, higher welfare and debt costs, and postponed reforms mean bigger fiscal risks and tougher choices are likely to come back later.

C-Span Washington Journal

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. A guest discussed the 2026 housing market outlook on C-SPAN Washington Journal.
  2. The conversation covered basics about where the housing market is headed and the key factors that led us here.
  3. The roughly 45-minute segment included live caller questions and a link to watch the full discussion.

Bitcoin ETFs: winners and losers

Ecoinometrics • 255 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Bitcoin ETFs have winners like BlackRock and Fidelity, along with losers like Grayscale, showing the importance of scale in this market.
  2. Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing decreasing correlation, hinting at potential opportunities for more diverse trading options in the crypto market.
  3. Historically, US presidential election years do not necessarily prevent economic downturns, revealing the limitations politicians have in propping up the economy.

Lawler: Median Existing Home Sales Prices: Oops, They Did It Again

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. The NAR sharply revised up its November median existing-home prices—especially in the Northeast—so preliminary numbers understated recent price gains and further revisions are possible.
  2. Because the NAR released its report earlier than usual, local realtor/MLS data were limited and some sales and inventory figures (for example versus Realtor.com) look inconsistent or may reflect definitional changes.
  3. Most of the recent rise in 30‑year mortgage rates comes from a wider primary/secondary mortgage spread driven by higher GSE guarantee fees and increased servicing/origination and regulatory costs, while higher MBS yields account for only about 3 basis points of the roughly 57 bp increase.

No Fucking Idea: My Take On Markets Into 2026

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 50 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Markets are very uncertain for 2026: either a liquidity-fueled rally lifts prices regardless of weak fundamentals, or a slow-burn downturn hits as consumer debt and delinquencies worsen.
  2. Political pressure on the Fed could lead to premature rate cuts that damage policy credibility, raise inflation expectations, and push markets toward extreme steps like yield-curve control.
  3. Even with macro risk and noisy year-end forecasts, there will be overlooked pockets of opportunity where active hunting for underpriced assets can produce asymmetric upside.

A política monetária nos EUA se encontra em território restritivo?

O Observador de Corcyra • 412 implied HN points • 26 Feb 23
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. The US monetary policy has been restrictive with significant impact on the economy and financial conditions.
  2. There are debates on whether the current monetary policy pace is appropriate or if adjustments should be made.
  3. Models and projections show the complexity of predicting inflation and the impact on future monetary policy decisions.

Developing a New (Alan) Taylorism for the Remainder of the 21st Century

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 238 implied HN points • 31 May 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. We need to learn from past economic crises so we can prepare for future shocks. They often have long-lasting effects on our economy, making recovery much harder.
  2. Controlling inflation is key for political stability. When inflation is low and stable, people trust their leaders and feel secure about the economy.
  3. Even with challenges, like low interest rates, we have a great chance for investment in things like infrastructure and education. We should take advantage of these conditions to grow.

Lions and Lambs

Some Unpleasant Arithmetic • 11 implied HN points • 18 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Macroeconomics
  1. Milei’s shock-therapy disinflation has stalled and even reversed, forcing a shift to slower, reserve-building policies; now the government must juggle a painful tradeoff between lowering inflation, rebuilding reserves, and keeping growth.
  2. Sustainable reserve accumulation is the linchpin for stability — without reserves confidence collapses, capital flight resumes, and the country risks sudden funding stops; relying on foreign borrowing or a hoped-for export/FDI boom is risky given big upcoming dollar debt needs and large private dollar holdings.
  3. A major evangelical presidential surge looks unlikely in the short run because Milei’s economic project both competes for the same support and hasn’t produced the large-scale displacement that typically fuels pentecostal political power, though long-term economic dislocation could change that dynamic.

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Mortgage equity withdrawal was slightly positive in Q3, meaning homeowners overall pulled out a little equity but not anywhere near the bubble-era levels.
  2. Mortgage debt rose by $108 billion in Q3 (the same as Q2), though a good share of that borrowing is for buying homes rather than tapping existing equity.
  3. Mortgage debt as a share of GDP is down to about 43.9% from its bubble peak, so most homeowners now have large equity cushions and few are in negative equity, meaning the “home ATM” is mostly closed.

Economics Links, 6/2/2025

In My Tribe • 212 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Closing the FCC could be beneficial, as it often invents new reasons to exist. Some of its functions could be better managed by other government departments.
  2. Trump's idea to make Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae public while keeping government guarantees could lead to problems. This could mean private companies profit while taxpayers take on the risks.
  3. There's some hope in the economy as service costs are stabilizing, suggesting capitalism might be doing better than thought. This could mean a brighter future for the middle class.

Friday Macro Sitch Watching: The Grit from the Sandstorm Is Fierce!

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 207 implied HN points • 06 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. In uncertain times, it's wise to be cautious and build safety instead of taking big risks. Waiting and watching can help us avoid bad decisions when the future is unclear.
  2. The economy is facing challenges like stagflation, which means slow growth and high prices. It's hard to tell if we're headed for a recession or if things will get better soon.
  3. Some people still have hope for a positive change, similar to past economic recoveries. They believe that chaos could lead to new growth opportunities, but there's a lot of uncertainty about what will happen next.

Bitcoin Solves Triffin's Dilemma

The Dollar Endgame • 259 implied HN points • 12 Nov 23
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. The Bretton Woods system established the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency in 1944, benefiting the U.S. significantly.
  2. Triffin's dilemma addressed the fatal flaw in the Bretton Woods system, highlighting the challenges of a central issuer currency in a global monetary system.
  3. Bitcoin offers a solution to Triffin's dilemma by being a neutral reserve currency, avoiding the issues associated with central issuer currencies and promoting balance in the global economy.

Will AI Prove Piketty Right?

Economic Forces • 18 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Getting labor's income share down to near zero is a knife-edge that needs extreme assumptions: either machines must be perfect substitutes for all human tasks, or capital must forever earn returns above depreciation plus what savers require. Without those extreme conditions, capital's share can rise a lot but will still hit a finite steady state.
  2. Whether capital's share rises or goes to infinity depends on supply and demand for capital: easier substitution flattens demand and raises capital's share, but faster technological progress also increases obsolescence and depreciation, which raises the hurdle savers need and can stop unbounded accumulation. These opposing forces determine if capital simply grows a lot or truly outstrips labor forever.
  3. A global progressive tax on capital may backfire: if capital is mobile and supply is elastic, owners can avoid the tax and its burden falls on wages, shrinking output; even coordinated taxes can't force savers to invest if after-tax returns fall below their patience threshold.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 02 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Inflation-adjusted national house prices are about 2.7% below their recent 2022 peak, and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 is roughly 3.0% below.
  2. Nominal house prices are very close to record highs—about 0.3% under the February 2025 peak—and in real terms national prices remain about 9.7% above the 2006 bubble peak.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is down about 9.9% from its 2022 peak, and rising inventory plus higher inflation have pressured real prices, which fell roughly 2% in 2025.

Every Jobs Report In 2025 Has Been Revised Lower

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 10 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Every month of 2025 has been revised lower, often sharply, which undermines confidence in the official payroll numbers.
  2. Much of the reported job growth relies on the BLS birth/death adjustment rather than actual payroll gains, so headline positives look artificial once the baseline is considered.
  3. The household survey and broader indicators show mixed signals and structural weakness—lower labor force participation, sector softness, and shifts between full‑time and part‑time work—implying the economy is weaker than the headline jobs figures suggest.

Economics Links

In My Tribe • 394 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Cato's wish list includes ideas for government reform, like raising Social Security retirement ages. Some of these suggestions might not be politically popular, but they show a push for change from a libertarian angle.
  2. There's a big difference in how academics and policymakers view the impact of interest rates on consumption. Academics think higher rates could boost future consumption, while policymakers see them as a negative for the economy.
  3. Scott Sumner highlights the issues with measuring inflation. He argues that inflation numbers are often confusing and imprecise, which also affects how we understand productivity changes.

All growth isn't equal: Categorizing Africa's fastest-growing economies

Afridigest • 27 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Macroeconomics
  1. By 2026, eleven of the world’s fifteen fastest-growing economies are expected to be in Africa.
  2. That growth isn’t the same everywhere — some countries are booming from resources, others from policy changes or demographic trends.
  3. Saying many African economies are fast-growing makes a catchy headline, but it hides big differences in how sustainable and widely shared that growth really is.

Complementarities, Weak Links, AI, and Economic Growth

Economic Forces • 7 implied HN points • 05 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Macroeconomics
  1. Production relies on complementary tasks, so a few high-quality workers can boost output far more than many low-quality workers; quality isn’t a simple substitute for quantity, which leads skilled workers to cluster and earn much more.
  2. Intermediate goods create powerful multiplier effects across the economy—better inputs like electricity or transport raise productivity everywhere—but when these inputs are complements, the weakest link can cap overall output and help explain big rich–poor gaps.
  3. AI’s growth impact hinges on whether it substitutes for or complements other inputs; if many tasks remain hard to automate and are complementary, they become weak links that limit explosive growth and prevent the capital share from soaring to 100%.

China's Consumption Is Not Nearly as Low as It Appears: CF40 Policy Brief

Pekingnology • 147 implied HN points • 03 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. China's actual consumption levels are much higher than what many believe. When we look at how much is consumed, the gap between China and developed countries isn't as big as the spending numbers suggest.
  2. In many areas, like food and household items, China has either matched or exceeded consumption levels of developed nations. This shows that Chinese citizens are enjoying a similar standard of living in terms of basic needs.
  3. Even though there's room for improvement in quality and type of consumption, more attention should be given to boosting domestic demand. This can enhance living standards and create a balanced trade environment.

Why Silver is Outperforming Gold (Again)

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 12 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Macro forces like Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and ongoing inflation are lifting precious metals, and silver is riding the same tailwind that’s helped gold.
  2. Silver’s role as both a monetary metal and an industrial input—used in electronics, solar panels and EVs—is creating extra real-world demand that can push its price higher than gold’s.
  3. Silver’s lower per-ounce price and higher volatility make it more attractive to retail buyers and short-term traders (unit bias), which amplifies percentage gains and helps it outpace gold in bull markets.

Wealth Always Hits a Limit

European Straits • 10 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Macroeconomics
  1. Businesses based on software, finance, and intellectual property enjoy increasing returns and can escape price competition, letting a small owner class concentrate large amounts of wealth.
  2. Global reserve-currency dynamics (especially the dollar’s dominant role) break normal exchange-rate rebalancing, locking in advantages for southern-side digital and financial firms while hollowing out domestic manufacturing.
  3. Physical manufacturing remains constrained by currency and price competition, so overall wealth concentration will eventually hit limits via currency shifts, falling consumption, and political backlash.

Money Supply Growth Surges to Multi-Year High

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 08 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. The money supply has accelerated in recent months, with TMS at a multi-year high and M2 hitting record levels above $22 trillion.
  2. That surge is happening despite weak economic signs like rising layoffs, bankruptcies, and rising delinquencies, which makes the growth surprising.
  3. Fed easing (rate cuts and slower quantitative tightening) plus commercial bank lending are driving the increase, and a large share of today’s money stock was created since 2009 and especially since 2020.

The Unmaking of a Modern Economy: Brexit, Austerity, and Britain's Great Retraction

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 376 implied HN points • 23 Nov 24
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Britain's economy has struggled since 2008, missing out on a lot of potential growth. If things had gone differently, people would be much better off today.
  2. Policies like austerity and Brexit have hurt the economy, but they are not the only reasons for the decline. There have been many mistakes made over the years.
  3. The long-term effects of economic shocks, like the Great Recession, can have lasting impacts on growth. This shows how important it is to be careful with economic policies.

Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Housing inventory plunged during the pandemic and, although it rose through 2025, it still sits below pre‑pandemic levels.
  2. Past shifts in inventory have been useful signals for housing market turning points—big increases helped mark the 2006 top and big drops helped mark the 2012 bottom.
  3. Inventory is not seasonally adjusted so year‑over‑year changes are the best way to read it; for example, the NAR reported a 7.5% YoY inventory increase in November 2025, while months‑of‑supply uses seasonally adjusted sales.

Do Tariffs Reduce Trade Deficits?

In My Tribe • 288 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Understanding international economics is complicated and involves many factors. It's not just simple numbers, but a mix of many different elements.
  2. A country's trade surplus is linked to its ability to save more than it invests. Countries that save well will usually end up holding other countries' debt like U.S. Treasury bills.
  3. Imposing tariffs might not significantly reduce trade deficits. Instead, currency appreciation can offset any potential benefits from tariffs, so real change depends more on national savings rates.

November 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics
  1. Multiple inflation measures — shelter CPI (which is lagged), Zillow’s rent estimate, core CPI, goods, and services — are all converging toward about 2%.
  2. Rent inflation functions largely as a transfer rather than a production cost, so it probably shouldn’t drive monetary policy and could be excluded from policy price indexes.
  3. With shelter removed, inflation sits near 2%, but tariffs have pushed goods prices up, suggesting the true neutral target may be a bit higher and there’s room for slightly more stimulative policy.