The hottest Macroeconomics Substack posts right now

In 2022, the US economy was expected to fall into a deep recession, but it didn't.
Despite doubts, the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes had a positive impact on the economy.
Forecasts for the US economy are challenging, and unexpected outcomes provide unique learning opportunities.

Bitcoin ETFs have winners like BlackRock and Fidelity, along with losers like Grayscale, showing the importance of scale in this market.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing decreasing correlation, hinting at potential opportunities for more diverse trading options in the crypto market.
Historically, US presidential election years do not necessarily prevent economic downturns, revealing the limitations politicians have in propping up the economy.

John Maynard Keynes transitioned from a cyclical investor to a long-term value investor.
Keynes introduced Keynesian economics for government stimulus during recessions.
Keynesian economics can lead to a cycle of government debt accumulation if not managed properly.

Occam's razor is a tool for finding the best explanations, not a one-size-fits-all solution. It should only be used in specific situations where competing explanations are equally valid.
Good explanations are deep, broad, and hard to vary - not necessarily simple. Choosing simplicity over accuracy can lead to wrong conclusions, like favoring Newton's theory over Einstein's theory of relativity.
Occam's razor can transfer complexity from explanations to objects, but doesn't always eliminate complexity. It's important to apply it correctly by selecting the explanation that avoids unnecessary complexity.

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The Bretton Woods system established the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency in 1944, benefiting the U.S. significantly.
Triffin's dilemma addressed the fatal flaw in the Bretton Woods system, highlighting the challenges of a central issuer currency in a global monetary system.
Bitcoin offers a solution to Triffin's dilemma by being a neutral reserve currency, avoiding the issues associated with central issuer currencies and promoting balance in the global economy.

The US monetary policy has been restrictive with significant impact on the economy and financial conditions.
There are debates on whether the current monetary policy pace is appropriate or if adjustments should be made.
Models and projections show the complexity of predicting inflation and the impact on future monetary policy decisions.

Financial crises are often triggered by events in ad hoc filings like 8Ks, not the usual 10Ks.
Analysis should consider how markets assess crises in real-time, not just post-facto Excel analysis.
The 2023 bank crisis started when Silicon Valley Bank suggested its business was less viable in an 8K filing.

Understand how neural networks work with an interesting explanation from Olah et. al
Learn about the history of scientific research and patronage from the rich
Gain insights on modern macroeconomics and what it gets wrong

Armen Alchian brought original and important ideas in economics like focusing on property rights, incentives, and information.
Alchian excelled at both economic theory and empirical work, showing expertise in using data and bridging theory with measurement.
Despite being known for microeconomics, Alchian made significant contributions to macroeconomics, especially in areas like transaction costs and macro unemployment.

Digital innovation is faster and more flexible than physical innovation, making digital iteration more efficient.
Translating between the physical and digital worlds is essential, requiring 'on-ramps' for data input and 'off-ramps' for implementation.
Information processing is crucial, with 'ramps' serving as gatekeepers between physical and digital realms in big tech and macroeconomics.