The hottest Public Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

“We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 505 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Public Finance
  1. Much of the $58 trillion in U.S. residential real estate value reflects higher prices on existing homes caused by constrained supply, so it is rent extraction rather than new wealth from better housing.
  2. New home construction has lagged, reversing the old "filtering down" process so older homes now "filter up," raising rents and lowering real incomes—especially for lower-income families.
  3. Official household net worth is overstated because future rent gains are counted as assets while the costs to tenants are not counted as liabilities, meaning measured wealth rose without improving living standards.

The Film Credit Fails In Nevada

Points And Figures • 639 implied HN points • 20 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Finance
  1. Government initiatives to support private industries, like film studios in Nevada, often fail because if there was real demand, businesses would have already built them.
  2. A diversified economy is crucial for Nevada, and it can be achieved through measures like encouraging logistics, energy innovations, and private ownership of land.
  3. Smart reforms in taxation and healthcare access, along with fostering school choice, can help improve Nevada’s economy and attract more residents.

Top Links 953 The fiscal politics of gambling. Sanctions are biting. Ubuntu and the "Table of Drops".

Chartbook • 357 implied HN points • 16 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Public Finance
  1. US states have dramatically increased revenue from sports betting, with takings roughly quintupled; that boom is reshaping state budgets and the politics around gambling.
  2. Economic sanctions are starting to have real, tangible effects; they are biting and changing the leverage and dynamics in international relations.
  3. Ubuntu and the "Table of Drops" are highlighted as notable topics, pointing to a focus on communal or procedural ideas worth closer attention.

Economics Links, 12/13/2025

In My Tribe • 318 implied HN points • 13 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Public Finance
  1. Defined-benefit pension plans share risk and promise steady payouts, but claims of higher returns often rely on risky investments and create incentives that lead to underfunding and bailouts. 401(k)s put responsibility on individuals to make good investment choices.
  2. Modern institutions keep creating more HR, compliance, DEI, and management roles to prevent mistakes and reduce risk, which explains much recent job growth in administrative positions. This expansion may be concentrated in nonprofits and health care, producing many paper-pushing jobs.
  3. Trade with China changes the mix of what gets produced but is not inherently zero-sum, since domestic productivity and policy can offset demand shifts. Meanwhile, zero-sum thinking strongly shapes political views—encouraging support for redistribution, identity-based policies, and restrictive immigration—and often reflects personal or ancestral experiences.

Zohran Mamdani's Budgetary Buffoonery

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 45 implied HN points • 18 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Finance
  1. A nearly 10% property tax increase runs against the mayor's affordability promises and shifts a big bill onto homeowners and landlords.
  2. Property taxes are a blunt tool that often lead owners to pass costs to renters or cut maintenance, which undermines housing affordability.
  3. Relying on repeated large tax hikes risks eroding political support and could drive wealthy residents and businesses away, shrinking the city's tax base.
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Gao Peiyong: boosting consumption requires profound redistribution reform

Pekingnology • 60 implied HN points • 14 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Public Finance
  1. Household consumption is weak mainly because people’s job prospects, incomes, and confidence are shaky, so restoring expectations and income security is central to reviving demand.
  2. Fixing this requires deep redistribution: shift fiscal spending away from large physical projects and fiscal assets toward public services and direct support for people, and make fiscal policy more equal between urban and rural areas.
  3. Pair short‑term policy measures to unlock immediate spending with long‑term institutional reform — especially a universal, non‑discriminatory social security and transfer system — and make expectations management a routine part of macroeconomic governance.

The 10 Most Popular Waste Investigations of 2025

OpenTheBooks Substack • 163 implied HN points • 01 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Finance
  1. They pushed for much greater federal transparency, including real-time visibility into Treasury payments and a public database of federal employees so taxpayers can see who’s paid and why.
  2. Investigations revealed widespread taxpayer waste, improper payments, and cozy contracts at federal, state, and local levels, showing systemic misspending and abuse across government.
  3. A large study found higher school payrolls were linked to worse student performance, suggesting more spending on staff and overhead doesn’t automatically improve outcomes and needs policy change.

New York Can’t Afford to Sideline Private Developers

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 21 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Finance
  1. New York needs to build many more homes where people want to live, and the private sector is essential because the city can’t afford to pay for all the new housing itself.
  2. Policies that sideline developers—like strict tenant controls, talk of expropriation, or big public housing plans—discourage investment and reduce the supply of rental housing, which tends to raise rents.
  3. Given tight city finances and the risk of people and firms leaving if taxes rise, the practical way to close the housing gap is to work with private builders and use market-driven solutions.

CROSSPOST: ADRIAN MONCK [NIE HUIHUA]: How to Get a Job in the Chinese Communist Party

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 115 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Public Finance
  1. To get ahead in the Chinese bureaucracy you mostly need political survival skills: spot who’s rising, keep secrets, run errands, write well, hide your feelings, and take the blame.
  2. China’s long meritocratic civil service built competence and stability, but exams teach the wrong signals for real jobs: promotions follow patrons not performance, so officials behave risk‑averse and avoid telling hard truths.
  3. Recent structural strains — collapsing land‑sale revenue, poor local investment incentives, and intensified central inspections — make discretion costly and squash local experimentation; without more transparency, longer tenures, accountable budgets, and permissioned risk, China will struggle to adapt.

It's not just Minnesota. Or just daycares. The deepest government honeypot is blue-state Medicaid.

Unreported Truths • 117 implied HN points • 29 Dec 25
🏥 Health Politics Public Finance
  1. Medicaid and other big government health programs have become massive targets for waste, fraud, and abuse, far exceeding smaller examples like daycare fraud. The sheer amount of money makes them especially vulnerable.
  2. New York is an extreme case, now spending roughly $120 billion on Medicaid and far more per person than decades ago. Federal backstops and political incentives have driven much of this growth.
  3. Growing Medicaid spending doesn’t clearly improve patient health and risks unsustainable costs for taxpayers, with absurd billing examples highlighting broken incentives. This dynamic can worsen care quality while expanding taxpayer burdens.

Where Did $100 Million in LA Fire Relief Money Go?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 690 implied HN points • 24 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Finance
  1. Many people in Southern California lost their homes due to wildfires and received limited financial support. Most didn't get enough help to rebuild their lives.
  2. A concert called 'FireAid' raised $100 million for fire relief, but victims report little sign of the promised assistance. They expected more direct help and resources.
  3. People like Quentin Fleming are still struggling to find proper relief, despite the large sums raised for victims. The lack of visible support is frustrating for those affected.

Liberty Eroding, Gold Rising: 30 Years of Warning

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 27 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Public Finance
  1. Gold’s rising dollar price reflects the dollar’s debasement and tracks an inverse relationship with economic freedom; as political and fiscal liberty fall, gold tends to rise.
  2. Since abandoning the gold-exchange standard, expanding welfare-warfare spending and central-bank debt monetization have eroded monetary integrity and long-term purchasing power.
  3. For investors, gold has often outperformed equities this century and acts as a hedge against unstable fiat money, even though a formal return to a gold standard looks politically unlikely.

Banfield on the Hyperbole of Urban Bankruptcy

Bet On It • 135 implied HN points • 28 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Finance
  1. Politicians often exaggerate city budget crises to gain credit or shift blame, rather than because the city is truly insolvent.
  2. When leaders claim a city "must" get state or federal aid, it usually means local taxpayers prefer not to pay or hope others will, not that paying would force people into poverty or be impossible.
  3. If people aren't willing to pay to fix a problem, it's probably not truly critical, and governments still have options like austerity or tapping unused tax bases (for example, taxing unimproved land) instead of declaring bankruptcy.

Cea Weaver vs. The Entire Field Of Economics

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 60 implied HN points • 11 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Finance
  1. Replacing market signals with collective ownership and a flat 30% rent destroys incentives. Builders stop building, maintenance declines, and allocation becomes political instead of efficient.
  2. Funding this by printing money fuels inflation and shifts purchasing power to asset holders and political insiders. That makes costs rise and hurts workers, renters, and savers.
  3. The combined effect is not more affordable housing but less housing and worse quality, plus expanding bureaucracy that benefits friends while everyone else waits. Shrinking private investment and political allocation create scarcity and decay.

Physiocratic Platform: Transaction Tax

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 1266 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Finance
  1. Transaction taxes are small fees added to all money exchanges, helping to fund government services. They can be applied to everything from buying groceries to trading stocks.
  2. A broad transaction tax could simplify the tax system by ensuring everyone contributes, especially from financial activities that often go untaxed. It aims to promote fairness among all economic participants.
  3. The proposed tax system would lower the overall tax burden for most people while ensuring that the rich and businesses pay their fair share, potentially reducing unfairness in current tax practices.

Survival - for now

Comment is Freed • 76 implied HN points • 27 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Public Finance
  1. The budget was a survival-first choice: ministers avoided big political risks and didn’t raise earned income tax, relying instead on smaller, targeted tax changes and fiscal creep.
  2. That approach buys short-term stability — a relatively kind OBR forecast and targeted moves (like ending the two-child benefit limit) should prevent market panic and help keep poll ratings steady.
  3. But it mostly defers hard problems: weaker productivity, higher welfare and debt costs, and postponed reforms mean bigger fiscal risks and tougher choices are likely to come back later.

Mini Exasperation #3

Exasperated Infrastructures • 16 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Finance
  1. You can just do stuff. Start small actions—write the blog, email the contact, fix the bike lane, or learn the skill—because action often matters more than overthinking.
  2. Reauthorizing federal transportation programs could focus on using grants better, improving environmental sustainability, and directing investments to communities that need them most. These are sensible goals but are often left vague and risk never being fully implemented without clearer plans.
  3. Many local policy moves are politically driven and miss the real problem or cost, like blanket e-bike registration schemes or long-term parking privatizations. Those choices can create big administrative headaches and long-term financial or practical harms without actually improving safety or service.

Trump Should Finish What He Started

Cremieux Recueil • 658 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Finance
  1. A Destination-Based Cash Flow Tax (DBCFT) can simplify the tax system by making it easier to track consumption rather than complicated income measurements. This means businesses won't need to navigate through complex deductions and depreciation rules.
  2. Switching to a consumption tax can help encourage saving and investment, making the economy grow better over time. It treats current and future consumption equally, which can make people want to invest more.
  3. Taxes influence how businesses choose to finance themselves, often making debt more attractive than equity. A neutral tax approach would allow businesses to pick the best financing method without extra costs from tax rules.

The Continental Bait-and-Switch

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Public Finance
  1. Continentals were accepted at first because people believed they could be redeemed for gold or silver, so the paper acted like a claim to real money.
  2. But leaders kept printing Continentals, broke the redemption promise, and used price controls and legal tender laws to force acceptance, which caused severe inflation and effectively cheated people in a bait-and-switch.
  3. This episode shows paper money’s value often rests on expectations of specie redemption, not just on taxes or legal coercion, so a government declaration alone may not create lasting monetary value.

Milton Friedman’s Weird Abolition List

Bet On It • 171 implied HN points • 03 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Finance
  1. Milton Friedman suggested abolishing certain government policies he viewed as unnecessary. Some of these policies include price supports for agriculture and minimum wage laws.
  2. He believed that many interventions weren't justified by their outcomes, indicating a need for less government control in various sectors.
  3. Friedman's focus was on promoting free-market principles, but his priorities differed from contemporary issues, revealing changes in the economy and regulation over time.

He Zohran, He Zohwon and Now We Must Fight

Exasperated Infrastructures • 21 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Finance
  1. Remake City Hall and diffuse power so decisions are collaborative and hard for capital interests to undo. Build participatory, block-level governance and align land use and transportation across the city.
  2. Treat the huge, tax-reliant budget honestly: publicly inventory revenues and spending, plan for possible austerity, and reallocate investments to drive affordability without hiding tradeoffs.
  3. Pursue practical, people-first tactics: deliver easy wins like bus and protected bike lanes, use data equitably instead of technocratically, and be willing to fight entrenched interests to protect working‑class outcomes.

New Orleans Police Superintendent has Collected $2.97M from Taxpayers since 2016

OpenTheBooks Substack • 248 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Finance
  1. The New Orleans Police Superintendent, Anne Kirkpatrick, has made $2.97 million from tax payers since 2016, including salary and legal settlements.
  2. After a tragic attack on New Year's Day, Kirkpatrick revealed she wasn't aware that the city owned anti-vehicle barriers meant to enhance safety, even though they had been in place since 2017.
  3. Despite a reported decrease in crime rates since she took office, New Orleans still experiences one of the highest homicide rates in the country.

GDP still wins

Economic Forces • 11 implied HN points • 15 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Public Finance
  1. GDP remains the best single-number summary of economic activity because no alternative captures the full picture of what an economy is doing.
  2. GDP correlates with many outcomes people care about — like lower infant mortality, better education, reduced extreme poverty, and higher self-reported happiness — because it measures the resources available to fund services and infrastructure.
  3. Despite its limitations, a well-measured GDP is practical and informative for policymaking and teaching, so attempts to outright replace it haven’t gained traction.

Everything you need to know about the Spending Review

Comment is Freed • 53 implied HN points • 12 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Finance
  1. The new budget allows more money for important projects like social housing and green energy, which is a good move.
  2. However, day-to-day spending is mostly staying the same, which means important issues might not get the attention they need.
  3. It's important to think about what each department really needs instead of just labeling them as winners or losers based on budget changes.

Tax Policy: Breaking the Impasse

Comment is Freed • 93 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Finance
  1. Tax reform in the UK is really hard because changes lead to public outrage, making it tough for politicians to make sensible decisions. Politicians often focus on how changes will be viewed rather than on what makes sense.
  2. The current tax system is too complicated and has become a way to solve a variety of issues, leading to confusion and resistance. There needs to be a clearer and simpler approach to tax policy that takes all aspects into account.
  3. Creating a separate office for tax policy could help develop better ideas and solutions without getting caught up in daily politics. This could support governments in making more informed decisions about tax reform.

Former Intel CEO Calls for a US Sovereign Wealth Fund

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 10 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Finance
  1. A US Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) is controversial because it could interfere with private markets instead of helping them. Many people think this could lead to problems rather than benefits.
  2. The idea is that an SWF could help the US compete in technology by investing strategically. However, there's a big question about whether the government can handle this responsibly without political influence.
  3. Funding an SWF might not be wise right now since the US is already facing huge budget deficits. Experts worry that adding another layer of government spending might make things worse.

Rebuilding Ukraine could be top European investment theme of 2026

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 07 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Public Finance
  1. If the war ends, a large reconstruction boom in Ukraine could start quickly and create big demand for rebuilding infrastructure and homes.
  2. Rebuilding Ukraine could become the top European investment theme in 2026, drawing capital into construction, materials, and related services.
  3. Political developments that lead to a truce will strongly influence the timing and scale of these investment opportunities, so policy moves will matter for investors.

It’s budget day in the UK

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 26 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Public Finance
  1. Changes in tax rates usually don’t alter long‑run economic growth and have little effect on equity market returns, so don’t buy or sell stocks just because taxes go up or down.
  2. Fiscal multipliers vary a lot: the OBR uses a tax multiplier of about 0.33 in year one, a capital investment multiplier of about 1.0, a regular (RDEL) multiplier of 0.34, and a welfare (AME) multiplier of about 0.6.
  3. What the government spends tax revenues on matters more than the tax increase itself — funding capital investment boosts GDP substantially, funding routine public services does little for growth, and cutting welfare to invest only yields a small net gain.

Is Eurozone debt sustainable?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 07 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Public Finance
  1. Eurozone countries have improved their debt situation since the last crisis, with many nations now reducing their deficits. This change indicates that they are handling their finances better.
  2. Germany is increasing its spending but can manage it, while France's high deficits look concerning. In contrast, the US is facing larger deficits and has become less fiscally responsible over time.
  3. The fiscal rules in the Eurozone help keep debt under control, and countries with higher debts tend to correct their spending more effectively after increasing their deficits.

Property Tax is horrifically inefficient.

PashaNomics • 0 implied HN points • 24 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Finance
  1. Property taxes can make it harder for people to buy homes and can lead to higher rents, which actually doesn't help affordability. Since buyers have to consider the extra tax costs, it may not really lower home prices as expected.
  2. Higher property taxes discourage builders from constructing new homes, which reduces the overall housing supply. If building a house becomes less appealing due to taxes, fewer homes are available, causing more competition and higher prices.
  3. Switching from property taxes to other forms of taxation, like sales taxes on homes, could be less disruptive. Using different taxes may help generate revenue without hurting both sellers and buyers as much as property taxes do.