The hottest Trade policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways

January 17, 2026

Letters from an American • 33 implied HN points • 18 Jan 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

The president announced tariffs on countries protecting Greenland to force a sale, using economic coercion rather than economic rationale and risking a trade war with U.S. allies.
European leaders and citizens pushed back hard, with emergency EU meetings, threats of countermeasures, and large protests in Copenhagen and Nuuk, while other countries like Canada are moving ahead with independent trade ties.
The administration’s broader authoritarian tactics — proposing a U.S.-led "Board of Peace," launching politicized investigations, and deploying agents against protesters — are drawing legal limits and eroding public support.

DeepSeek and the Future of AI Competition with Miles Brundage

ChinaTalk • 948 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25

🕹 Technology Trade policy

DeepSeek's R1 model shows that AI competition is heating up between the U.S. and China. It's similar to OpenAI's model but developed quickly, closing the gap.
The efficiency at which DeepSeek operates is driven by export controls, meaning limited access to advanced chips. More chips would better their AI capabilities.
Open-sourcing AI models has its benefits, but governments need to be careful. They should ensure the technology is not misused while still allowing some level of open collaboration.

🌐✨ Trade and AI uncertainty are not the same

Faster, Please! • 913 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

Trade policy changes can create a lot of uncertainty in the economy. Recently announced tariffs are causing confusion among markets and businesses.
The impact of these tariffs could disrupt established supply chains and lead to higher costs, which might hurt businesses more than expected.
While AI is also a source of uncertainty, current trade issues are having a more immediate and significant effect on the economy right now.

In which Trump makes the EU pay $1.35 trillion for the privilege of paying 15% unilateral tariffs on exports & lectures the Eurotards on the stupidity of wind turbines for good measure

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 326 implied HN points • 28 Jul 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

Donald Trump negotiated a deal with the EU that makes them pay $1.35 trillion while facing a 15% tariff on exports. This shows the EU's lack of strength in trade talks.
The agreement includes the EU investing $600 billion in the U.S. and purchasing $750 billion in energy. It seems like a one-sided deal that puts the EU at a disadvantage.
Trump criticized wind energy during a press conference, calling it expensive and harmful to the environment. He highlighted the challenges of using windmills, saying they hurt landscapes and wildlife.

Ninety Days for Zero Deals, & Zero Certainty for the Future

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 330 implied HN points • 08 Jul 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

Trump's trade deals created a lot of noise but little real action. Instead of actual agreements, there were just threats and vague promises.
Countries are struggling to manage the unpredictability of U.S. trade policies. They are trying to either appease or confront the U.S. while also finding ways to protect their own economies.
This situation leads to uncertainty in the global market, making it hard for businesses to plan. Investors are more worried about policy changes than about any inherent advantages in trade.

The Physiocratic Platform: Tariffs

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 1153 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

Tariffs can help raise money for government services, especially for defense and border security. By applying a uniform tariff on imported goods, it aims to make the tax system fairer for everyone involved.
Historically, high tariffs were essential for the growth of the U.S. economy and protecting local industries. Examples from the past show that many countries successfully used tariffs to develop their manufacturing sectors.
While tariffs might increase the cost of living, they can also boost domestic production and potentially lead to higher wages. The idea is that by protecting local jobs, the overall economy can become stronger.

Against America, Europe Can Become Europe

World Game • 19 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26

🌍 World Politics Trade policy

The United States has grown more openly hostile and willing to use economic and military pressure, treating Europe as weak and able to be coerced because of European dependence on American energy, technology and defence.
That pressure could force Europeans to finally unite and assert real sovereignty, driving a strategic break from the United States and the creation of a shared, civilisation-level European identity and state.
Europe must stop assuming values are universal and choose between the transatlantic alliance and an independent European project; preserving European ideals will require sovereignty, hard economic choices, and a clear political identity.

Why Did Trump Just Start a Trade War with Our Neighbors?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 746 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, causing concern for many. This decision appears sudden and lacks a clear reason.
The tariff could disrupt the economy and long-standing trade agreements. It might lead to increased costs for consumers and harm relations with neighboring countries.
While there's a limit on tariffs for Canadian energy imports to avoid spiking energy prices, the rules are inconsistent and confusing for trade with Mexico.

This Week in Canada: Trump Sparks a ‘Three-Alarm Fire’ for Canadian Manufacturers

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 296 implied HN points • 18 Jul 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

Canada's wildfire season is getting worse, with Manitoba experiencing its worst fires in nearly thirty years. Air quality is affected across the border in the U.S., causing some states to declare alerts.
Political tensions have risen because U.S. lawmakers are blaming Canada for the wildfires and the resulting smoke. They claim that poor forest management in Canada is affecting American communities.
Canadian fire departments are underfunded and lack adequate equipment to combat wildfires. This issue contributes to the spread and impact of wildfires, highlighting the need for better funding and resources.

Why the U.S. China Hawks are Hurting the U.S.

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 236 implied HN points • 04 Aug 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

Banning tech exports to China might seem like a smart move, but it actually helps them push their own technology forward.
China is making big strides in semiconductor technology, like creating graphene-based devices that are much faster and more efficient.
American companies are missing out on huge investment opportunities because of strict policies against collaborating with Chinese firms.

Trump's Tariffs and those Goddamned Freeloading Europeans

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 218 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

The United States acts like an imperial power, and it doesn't really do nice things for other countries for free. Its goal is to keep Europe dependent to maintain control.
European nations are more connected through the EU and military alliances to avoid conflict and promote cooperation, but this dependence means they struggle to develop their own independent foreign policies.
Trump's push for Europe to spend more on defense reflects a bigger shift where the U.S. might start pulling back from Europe, making the future relationship more complicated and possibly less favorable for Europe.

The O-Ring Theory of Economic Development

Something to Consider • 59 implied HN points • 15 Jun 24

💼 Business Trade policy

Production can be broken down into many steps, and a failure at any step can ruin the entire process. The skill level of workers, known as human capital, plays a key role in this.
Regions can be stuck in a bad place with low investment in education due to a lack of returns. Immigration can help individuals escape this situation, leading to better education and economic growth in both their new home and their original country.
Trade policies can significantly impact production. Quotas can be much more damaging than tariffs because they disrupt the entire production process, leading to larger losses than expected.

Tariffs, Chaos, & the G6: I Watch Adam Posen as an Eloquent Cassandra on the Economic Wages of Pluto-Populist Trade-Policy Folly

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 269 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

Tariffs can harm regular American families by increasing prices and creating uncertainty. They may seem like a good idea to support local industries, but they often backfire.
The U.S. is becoming more isolated in global trade because of unpredictable policies. Other countries will easily find new trade partners, leaving the U.S. at a disadvantage.
The chaos caused by tariffs leads to significant financial burdens on lower-income households. The overall economic impact will hurt many people, especially those with less money.

Trade: How Free is Too Free?

ChinaTalk • 533 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

US trade policy has evolved over 250 years, reflecting different political interests and economic conditions. This history shows that trade debates have always been intense and sometimes divisive.
Tariffs serve three main purposes: to raise revenue, restrict imports to protect local jobs, and enable reciprocal trade agreements. Each of these has played a significant role in shaping the US trade landscape.
Recent trade policies, especially under Trump, have likely created lasting changes in US-China relations. These changes may make it hard for future administrations to return to previous trade norms.

The Fuss Over Chips

Diane Francis • 559 implied HN points • 18 May 23

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

Semiconductor chips are extremely important today, like how steel was key during World War II. They're used in everything from smartphones to military systems, making them a vital part of the global economy.
The CHIPS Act in the U.S. aims to boost domestic production of chips and limit China’s access to advanced technology. This has created a significant economic and geopolitical tug-of-war between the two countries.
China is trying to gain leverage by controlling resources needed for technology, like lithium and cobalt, while the U.S. deals with the challenge of ensuring fair trading practices. Both countries need a balance to improve the global economy without conflicts.

The Battle to Shape Trump's China Policy

ChinaTalk • 622 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

Trump's China policy is uncertain and has many different viewpoints among his supporters. They all agree about China's importance but disagree on how to deal with it.
There are two main debates: one about economic issues and the other about military and geopolitical strategies. People might agree on economic solutions but have different ideas on military actions.
Some view the U.S. as strong and capable of taking on China, while others are more pessimistic and believe the U.S. needs to lower its ambitions. This difference shapes their ideas on how to approach U.S.-China relations.

NOTE TO SELF: TrumpChaos in a BREXIT Mirror

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 422 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

Brexit caused a lot of chaos and hurt the UK economy significantly, with estimates of GDP loss ranging from 4% to over 10%. This shows how disruptive trade politics can really be.
Trump's international trade policies seem to create similar pointless disruptions, slightly lessening the U.S. economy's ties with its trading partners but not helping in the long run.
There are questions about how the damage from Trump's trade policies compares to Brexit's impact, and it's important to analyze the economic integration and results for both the U.S. and UK.

Post APEC, Chinese scholars weigh limited easing in China–U.S. rivalry & Trump’s new G2 pitch

Pekingnology • 49 implied HN points • 25 Nov 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

Experts believe that the China-U.S. relationship is moving towards a phase of managed competition, where both sides are making small concessions to avoid major conflicts. This could help reduce tensions in the future.
The talks between China and the U.S. at the APEC Summit led to agreements on important issues like tariffs and trade, which showed a willingness to cooperate despite underlying tensions.
While some improvements in relations are noted, significant differences and challenges still exist. The relationship is seen as 'fragile stability,' meaning things could change quickly depending on political actions in both countries.

Calling Bill Buckley

A User's Guide to History • 176 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

There's a debate between common sense and expertise in decision-making.
Democracy often relies on elected officials to delegate to experts for specialized knowledge.
Lawmakers use expertise to navigate complex issues and provide political cover for tough decisions.

Saturday Commentary and Review #192

Fisted by Foucault • 145 implied HN points • 09 Aug 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

Europe is losing its economic independence due to heavy reliance on the USA. Recently, they signed a trade deal that favors American interests while diminishing their own.
There's a crisis in understanding what is true in our society nowadays, leading to distrust in media and institutions. This is causing confusion about facts and opinions.
The Yazidi people, a minority group in Iraq, have endured significant hardships but continue to survive despite ongoing threats. Their history highlights the challenges faced by vulnerable communities in conflict zones.

Amb. Burns Reflects from Beijing

ChinaTalk • 415 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25

🌍 World Politics Trade policy

Dialogue is crucial in maintaining relationships between superpowers. Talking helps address issues and avoid misunderstandings that could escalate into conflicts.
China faces a choice between aligning with disruptive nations like Russia or acting as a responsible global power. Their decisions now have significant implications for their international relationships.
Having strong alliances is essential for the U.S. in its competition with China. Allies amplify American power and help maintain global stability.

Optics vs Reality

Phillips’s Newsletter • 140 implied HN points • 31 Jul 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

Optics often take precedence over reality, especially in politics like Trump's approach to trade. It’s important to recognize that what looks good publicly might not be beneficial in practice.
The recent trade deal between the US and EU has created confusion about what was actually agreed upon. This lack of clarity makes it difficult to enforce any future agreements effectively.
The EU is trying to negotiate new deals with other countries, which could help them in the long run. If the US market becomes less accessible, they might focus more on strengthening their own economy.

Critical Mineral Export Restrictions

ChinaTalk • 459 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

China recently restricted exports of critical minerals like germanium and gallium in response to U.S. semiconductor controls. This shows how trade tensions can impact global supply chains.
Lessons from a past incident in 2010 highlight that China can use its control over rare earth exports as a political tool. This could lead to further supply vulnerabilities for countries reliant on these materials.
To avoid dependency on a single country for critical minerals, nations should work on diversifying their supply sources. Expanding production options is key to maintaining access to important technology.

December 5, 2025

Letters from an American • 30 implied HN points • 06 Dec 25

🌍 World Politics Trade policy

The new U.S. National Security Strategy breaks with the post–World War II rules-based order and favors a world divided into great-power spheres of influence instead of multilateral institutions like the UN and NATO.
The document centers a culturally nationalist agenda that rejects immigration and many climate policies while praising a return to “traditional” families, and observers noted its language and numbering echo white supremacist references.
It pivots U.S. focus to the Western Hemisphere with a self-styled “Trump Corollary” that uses tariffs and government-backed commercial diplomacy to promote American companies, signals willingness to use military force regionally, and steps back from European commitments while signaling a softer posture toward Russia.

The UK’s trade after Brexit…

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 17 Feb 26

🌐 International Trade policy

Tariffs and new paperwork between the UK and the EU sharply cut UK goods exports. Exports fell roughly 0.4% per month and about 40% cumulatively.
Other countries redirected imports away from the UK, so EU total imports stayed stable while UK importers faced higher prices and lower supply and UK exporters were stranded.
Even a large economy like the US can be bypassed, so broad US tariffs could similarly hurt American firms as trading partners find alternatives; services trade is much less affected by goods tariffs.

My Views of the Trump Administration

David Friedman’s Substack • 287 implied HN points • 04 Mar 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

The Trump administration has mixed reviews, with some seeing it as a disaster and others viewing it as a necessary change towards less government control and more individual choices.
Tariffs and immigration policies under Trump are seen as not beneficial, especially since tariffs may harm trade and the economy.
Foreign policy is a huge concern, especially with Trump's approach of potentially reducing support for Ukraine and NATO, which could risk European stability.

⤴⤵ Up Wing/Down Wing #20

Faster, Please! • 456 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

Free trade is good for the economy because it helps increase productivity and wages. Even if it disrupts some jobs, the overall benefits are greater.
Tech companies are starting to embrace nuclear energy to power their data centers. This move aims to cut carbon emissions and manage rising energy demands.
Despite economic challenges, the American system has shown resilience. The economy has adapted and grown stronger after tough times like the financial crises.

Retaliatory Tariffs

David Friedman’s Substack • 260 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

Retaliatory tariffs are taxes on imports that match the tariffs a country imposes on exports. They aim to make both countries reconsider their tariff policies.
If one country sets high tariffs, the other may respond with corresponding tariffs, which might lead to both countries lowering their tariffs for mutual benefit.
The idea of reciprocal tariffs can help simplify trade negotiations, but it can also create loopholes where countries find ways to keep protections in place without directly using tariffs.

& We Are Live Over at the "Milken Review", with: Chickens Coming Home to Roost?: The Perils of Deglobalization

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 276 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

Countries are starting to use their market power for political reasons, which can hurt globalization. This means that economic decisions are becoming more political.
The level of globalization has been changing a lot, and even though it dipped during the pandemic, it has started to recover. Still, many people are concerned about the risks of deglobalization.
Reducing global connections might lead to higher prices and less innovation. The goal now seems to be working with other countries while being careful about becoming too dependent.

December 8, 2025

Letters from an American • 22 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

The president is trying to expand executive power by using emergency laws to impose tariffs and by asserting the right to remove officials from independent agencies, a push toward a stronger "unitary executive."
The tariff campaign has badly hurt farmers, prompting a $12 billion one-time bailout, while the administration has delayed economic reports that could reveal more damage.
Courts and Congress are starting to push back: the Supreme Court may limit the administration's claims, and lawmakers are demanding oversight and even withholding funds to get unedited military strike videos and constrain officials.

Manifest Destiny Returns

Alex Danco's Newsletter • 252 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy

American Exceptionalism means the U.S. sees its values as universal and acts with a moral purpose in the world. This belief makes it different from other nations that focus mainly on national interests.
The idea of Manifest Destiny allowed America to expand its influence without feeling guilty about using power, framing it as if it were a domestic issue. This helps to justify aggressive policies while maintaining a sense of moral superiority.
Recent tariffs on neighboring countries are seen as a strategy to strengthen America's negotiation power and unify its goals domestically. It treats trade policies as matters of national authority, boosting support from Americans who want to see stronger actions taken.

The hottest Trade policy Substack posts right now

Letters from an American • 33 implied HN points • 18 Jan 26

ChinaTalk • 948 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25

Chartbook • 500 implied HN points • 26 May 25

Faster, Please! • 913 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 326 implied HN points • 28 Jul 25

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 330 implied HN points • 08 Jul 25

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 1153 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24

World Game • 19 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 746 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 296 implied HN points • 18 Jul 25

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 236 implied HN points • 04 Aug 25

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 218 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25

Chartbook • 300 implied HN points • 08 Jun 25

Something to Consider • 59 implied HN points • 15 Jun 24

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 269 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25

ChinaTalk • 533 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25

Chartbook • 472 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25

Diane Francis • 559 implied HN points • 18 May 23

ChinaTalk • 622 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 422 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25

Pekingnology • 49 implied HN points • 25 Nov 25

A User's Guide to History • 176 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24

Fisted by Foucault • 145 implied HN points • 09 Aug 25

ChinaTalk • 415 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25

Chartbook • 515 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24

Phillips’s Newsletter • 140 implied HN points • 31 Jul 25

ChinaTalk • 459 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24

Letters from an American • 30 implied HN points • 06 Dec 25

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 17 Feb 26

David Friedman’s Substack • 287 implied HN points • 04 Mar 25

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 08 Dec 24

Faster, Please! • 456 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24

David Friedman’s Substack • 260 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 276 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25

Letters from an American • 22 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25

Chartbook • 300 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24

Alex Danco's Newsletter • 252 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25