The hottest Trade policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top U.S. Politics Topics

Caveman Brains and International Markets

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1219 implied HN points • 18 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Many people believe in protecting manufacturing jobs, but studies show these jobs are only a small part of the economy now. Most workers are in other types of jobs, and the focus on manufacturing isn't realistic.
  2. Protectionist policies can do more harm than good. For example, tariffs that protect a few jobs can lead to massive job losses in other industries.
  3. The desire for more manufacturing jobs often comes from outdated ideas and emotions rather than solid arguments. We need to move forward rather than cling to past job types that don't fit today's economy.

Public Choice links, 11/13/2025

In My Tribe • 318 implied HN points • 13 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Trade protectionism in America is seen as central planning dressed up as economic nationalism. While manufacturing output has grown, employment in factories has declined.
  2. There’s a push for better state capacity in government, but some argue it needs to focus on doing fewer things well rather than expanding into more areas.
  3. Voters often make poor choices about policies. Scholars understand what's inefficient, but there’s a challenge in communicating that knowledge to the public.

America still needs Canadian oil. Here's why

Material World • 2899 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The US relies heavily on Canadian oil, with Canada providing around 61% of its oil imports. This shows that even though the US produces a lot of oil, it still needs oil from other countries like Canada.
  2. American refineries are designed to process heavy oil, which is mostly sourced from Canada. This creates a unique situation where even though the US is an oil producer, it still heavily imports due to refinery needs.
  3. If tariffs on Canadian oil increase, the US might have to look for heavy oil from countries like Venezuela or Russia, which could lead to more complicated geopolitical issues.

Repeal the Jones Act of 1920

Don't Worry About the Vase • 3494 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The Jones Act, enacted in 1920, restricts shipping between U.S. ports to American-built and operated ships, but it has led to a decline in U.S. shipbuilding and maritime trade. After a century, the country ships very little between its own ports, resulting in higher prices for consumers.
  2. Repealing the Jones Act could significantly reduce shipping costs, increase trade, and boost the economy. It would create more jobs and provide essential supplies more efficiently during emergencies, which often cannot be met due to current shipping constraints.
  3. Opponents of the Jones Act argue that it protects a limited number of jobs at the expense of overall economic growth. They believe that allowing competition from foreign ships would enhance the maritime industry and lead to better outcomes for consumers and the economy as a whole.

Tinned Soup and Tariffs

Material World • 1280 implied HN points • 20 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Making tin cans is more complex than it seems. The steel used in cans needs to be very high quality and made in a specific way to ensure it is safe and effective.
  2. Trade wars and tariffs can affect everyday products like Campbell's Soup. Higher tariffs can lead to increased prices for consumers, especially if companies have to pay more for imported materials.
  3. Changes in steel production, like moving from blast furnaces to electric arc furnaces, can have big impacts on industries and trade deals. This can make it hard for companies to get the materials they need without higher costs.
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More Lies About Trade Tariffs From the Chaos Monkeys

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 253 implied HN points • 22 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Supporters of chaotic tariff policies are making internally contradictory claims—saying tariffs don’t raise prices while also arguing that removing them will lower prices—and they push for immediate Fed rate cuts despite inflation risks.
  2. Tariffs act like taxes that raise prices and reduce output and jobs, and models that assume steady tariffs understate the real damage because unpredictable, rolling tariffs and the resulting uncertainty amplify economic harm.
  3. The political tactic is not coherent argument but domination: rapid misinformation, media capture, and enforced doublethink are used to flummox opponents and shape public opinion rather than engage on facts.

Just What Do Trump's "Trade Deals" Consist of? Nothing

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 261 implied HN points • 19 Nov 25
🌍 World Politics Trade policy
  1. These so‑called trade "deals" are mostly PR and consultation clauses without independent dispute resolution, so they don’t create binding commitments or stop arbitrary unilateral actions.
  2. Countries like Malaysia sign to protect market access and get advance warning, but they simultaneously diversify and derisk by keeping ties with China and other partners instead of fully aligning with the U.S.
  3. Because these agreements don’t provide long‑term certainty, they erode foreign confidence in the U.S. and risk hurting American strategic and economic interests unless replaced by stable institutions and enforceable mechanisms.

CFR's Mike Froman on Détente 2.0 and Running a Think Tank

ChinaTalk • 163 implied HN points • 15 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Détente strategies, aimed at changing adversary behavior through engagement, have often failed. Instead of driving cooperation, they sometimes lead to misunderstandings and conflicts.
  2. The U.S.-China relationship is complex due to economic interdependence, which requires careful balancing of cooperation and competition in areas like technology and national security.
  3. Current tensions can lead to a stalemate where both sides avoid costly escalations. Finding rules for coexisting without conflict is essential for future stability.

What the Right Kind of Nationalism Sounds Like.

Breaking the News • 2206 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Leadership requires addressing national interests clearly and passionately. Trudeau spoke strongly about the importance of Canada and the negative effects of trade wars.
  2. Effective communication is about explaining complex issues without being rude. Trudeau made sure his American audience understood the consequences of tariffs without sounding threatening.
  3. National pride can be expressed in a respectful way. Trudeau delivered a firm message about Canada’s values and partnerships while emphasizing that the country would stand up for itself.

EMERGENCY POD: H20 Drama

ChinaTalk • 711 implied HN points • 13 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. There are strong arguments for and against selling AI chips to China. Some believe it helps China's technology, while others think it keeps them dependent on U.S. tech.
  2. The H20 chip, designed by NVIDIA, is still competitive despite being banned in the U.S. It has high bandwidth memory that no Chinese chip can match, giving it a unique edge.
  3. Selling these chips can complicate U.S.-China relations. The situation is tricky because technology sales can benefit businesses, but they may also strengthen China's military and technological abilities.

Davos, The Dollar, and Donald

JoeWrote • 79 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Trump’s confrontational foreign moves are eroding the rules-based international order and straining alliances, shifting geopolitics toward power politics instead of agreed rules.
  2. Global investors are losing faith in the U.S. as a safe haven, driving down the dollar and U.S. assets while pushing money into gold and non‑US investments.
  3. Attempts to politicize the Federal Reserve and pressure its leadership risk destroying central bank independence, prompting financial leaders to diversify away from U.S. assets and weakening America’s financial dominance.

Trump Promised Voters Lower Prices: He Lied—& People Are Angry

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 184 implied HN points • 02 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Affordability is mostly people’s anger at high nominal prices after a one‑time inflation jump, with tariffs and housing costs making the pain worse; political debate should call out broken promises to cut prices and focus on raising incomes and reducing monopoly-driven rents instead of promising magic price drops.
  2. The labor market looks frozen at the margin — hiring is paused even though unemployment is low — because tariff uncertainty and AI-driven investment make firms reluctant to hire; policy should reduce trade uncertainty and incentivize hiring, apprenticeships, and retraining.
  3. The current AI boom is propping up demand and investment but is uneven, uncertain, and may be misallocated; smaller, cheaper models and more deployment-focused investment across many firms could deliver broader benefits than a hyperscaler datacenter arms race.

Secretary Marco Rubio remarks - Munich Security Conference

Who is Robert Malone • 27 implied HN points • 14 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The West must renew its economy and technology by re-industrializing, securing supply chains, and competing strongly in AI, commercial space, and other critical industries.
  2. Strong border control and immigration limits are presented as necessary expressions of national sovereignty to protect social cohesion and cultural continuity.
  3. The transatlantic alliance should be reinvigorated around shared Western heritage and reciprocity, with Europe taking more responsibility for defense, international institutions reformed, and hard power used when diplomacy fails.

Just So We're Clear on the 2024 Election....

Drezner’s World • 963 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The author has issues with both Biden and Trump, but views Trump's economic policies as far worse.
  2. The author emphasizes the difference between the economic policies of Biden and Trump, particularly in relation to inflation.
  3. The author highlights the authoritarian tendencies and disastrous economic policies of Donald Trump, leading to a preference for Biden in the 2024 election.

Trade War? Tariffs? How A Trump Election Would Change Tech

Big Technology • 2752 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Global trade is super important for tech companies like Apple and those in semiconductors. If trade gets disrupted, it could lead to higher prices and inflation.
  2. Donald Trump's potential election could lead to drastic changes in global trade, including high tariffs on imports. This could reshape the landscape for many tech businesses.
  3. With Trump's focus on tariffs, global trade issues might become the main concern for the tech industry instead of social media or other topics that dominated past elections.

🐼 😲 Bracing for China Shock 2.0

Faster, Please! • 731 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The U.S. is facing a new challenge from China as it becomes a leader in many advanced technologies, something that could have lasting impacts on the economy.
  2. Instead of relying on tariffs and outdated policies, the U.S. should work on building stronger collaborations and focus on innovation to compete effectively.
  3. A successful strategy for the U.S. should focus on its strengths—like decentralized innovation and competition—rather than trying to mimic China's state-driven model.

Keeping Up

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1668 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. There is ongoing discussion about U.S. energy policy, with various viewpoints providing insights into how it could be improved. An analysis from Colorado highlights broader implications that can be relevant to other states too.
  2. The debate surrounding the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) continues, focusing on whether the president can dissolve or change it through executive order. This raises important questions about the agency's role and effectiveness.
  3. Concerns about protectionism and trade wars are being critically evaluated, showing that both major political parties are engaged in this issue. Recent tariff proposals also raise questions about their economic and fiscal impacts.

This Entire Piece Is Wrong on Trade

Points And Figures • 719 implied HN points • 09 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Free trade generally benefits everyone by allowing countries to use their resources more efficiently. This helps spur innovation because companies can access materials and knowledge globally.
  2. While free trade has many advantages, there are limits, especially when it comes to national security. Some products might be better produced domestically to ensure safety and reliability.
  3. The trade deficit is often misunderstood. It's not always a sign of failure but can indicate that a country is reallocating resources for higher-value production and investments.

The Smearing of a Health Hero. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 593 implied HN points • 31 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Dr. Vinay Prasad faced a smear campaign that led to his resignation from the FDA, causing concern about the impact on public trust in health authorities.
  2. Sydney Sweeney stirred controversy with an ad, highlighting societal reactions towards attractiveness and body image in today's culture.
  3. Donald Trump's recently announced trade deals, including high tariffs, are being criticized as embarrassing, impacting U.S. trade relationships with countries like the EU and India.

Trump’s Trade War Is On. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1604 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Trump is imposing high tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, which has sparked a strong response from these countries. Canada is retaliating with its own tariffs, indicating that this trade conflict could escalate quickly.
  2. RFK Jr. is gaining attention in politics, especially among a group called MAHA that aims to change the healthcare system. There are varying opinions about him, with some supporting his ideas and others critiquing them.
  3. A new conservative calendar featuring bikini models has been released, showing a trend among some on the right to embrace a more provocative image. However, its artistic quality is being questioned by critics.

Trump's AI Action Plan: Observations

ChinaTalk • 592 implied HN points • 23 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The AI Action Plan includes a lot of creative ideas, but it feels like it's from a different universe, making it somewhat confusing. It raises questions about whether it's truly effective or just idealistic.
  2. There's a strong concern about the U.S. losing its competitive edge in AI to China. The plan highlights the need for the government to support American tech firms so they can compete effectively with well-funded Chinese companies.
  3. The importance of addressing immigration policy and talent attraction for AI innovation is missing. Without new policies, it may be hard to grow talent within the U.S. tech industry.

It's Funny How Trump Doesn't Bother Articulating Goals Anymore

I Might Be Wrong • 12 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Trump doesn’t lay out clear goals, so people don’t know what he’s trying to achieve with tariffs or actions in Iran. That lack of clarity leaves policymakers and the public guessing.
  2. His supporters and friendly media mostly wait for him to act and then rationalize his moves instead of debating or holding him to a plan. So normal democratic discussion about goals and tradeoffs doesn’t happen.
  3. The result is ad‑hoc, idiosyncratic policymaking driven by personal whims or grudges, which can produce risky outcomes like big military buildups or ineffective tariffs. That makes government unpredictable and harder to manage.

This Week in Canada: Don’t Take an Israeli Flag to a Pride Parade

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 486 implied HN points • 05 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Canada didn't manage to strike a trade deal with the U.S. by the deadline, resulting in a rise in tariffs. This affects less than 10% of Canada's trade, so it's not as big of a deal as it sounds.
  2. Despite the tariff increase, some Canadian leaders are still pushing for a stronger deal with the U.S. They want to ensure Canada gets a fair trade arrangement.
  3. There's ongoing tension around inclusivity at events like Pride, with some groups feeling excluded over different political views, which raises debates on what it means to be inclusive.

Contours of a US-China Tech Grand Bargain

Interconnected • 709 implied HN points • 08 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The US and China are working on a tech agreement that could change the way they trade technology and materials. This could lead to better cooperation on key tech issues like semiconductors and rare earth materials.
  2. China has advantages in supplying critical materials, while the US holds the edge in semiconductor technologies. Both sides will have to negotiate carefully to balance their needs and strengths.
  3. Access to the consumer tech market is crucial for both countries. A deal involving TikTok might help set guidelines for how Chinese companies can operate in the US, which could shape future technology negotiations between the two nations.

Macroeconomy Now Below "Stall Speed"?

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 484 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
💰 Finance Trade policy
  1. Job creation in the U.S. is slowing down, with only about 35,000 new jobs added each month lately. This is not enough to keep unemployment from rising.
  2. Inflation risks are still increasing, mainly due to trade issues and supply chain problems. These factors could lead to economic issues like stagflation, where both inflation and unemployment rise.
  3. There's a major boom in data-center construction, driven by AI investments. This is impacting prices and inflation, showing that certain sectors can create upward pressure on costs even when overall consumer demand isn't high.

Trumpxit & the Likely Undoing of American Exceptionalism

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 584 implied HN points • 05 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The U.S. economy is facing serious challenges due to unpredictable trade policies, which could weaken its global leadership. If companies can't trust the rules, they might look for safer markets to invest in.
  2. America's true strength comes from its ability to share ideas and talent globally. By reducing that openness, it risks losing innovation and competitiveness over time.
  3. History shows that nations that close themselves off not only harm their economies but also lose influence in the world. It's essential to stay integrated and foster connections with others.

Top Links 810 The shape of globalization. MAGA's parallel economy. Balochistan and thinking about 危机。

Chartbook • 500 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Trade uncertainty has increased a lot, making it harder to predict economic trends. This uncertainty can affect businesses and investors worldwide.
  2. Global imports are holding steady and not falling, but they aren't getting larger compared to the overall economy either. This means that trade is stable, but not growing as it used to.
  3. The map of globalization shows changing patterns and connections between countries. This can help us understand how economies interact today.

Behavioural Geopolitics: What it means for the coming years

Klement on Investing • 7 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Very powerful countries tend to feel more threatened and become more hawkish, which leads them to intervene militarily and economically even against weaker rivals.
  2. When checks on government power are weak, leaders can use state actions to benefit allies and big companies, increasing corruption and privileging private interests over the public good.
  3. Encouraging allies to rearm can make them more independent and confident, which may create new rivalries and strain old alliances, and could prompt deals or conflicts over strategic assets like semiconductors and Taiwan.

The Big Experiement

Points And Figures • 479 implied HN points • 04 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The new trade deal with the EU has increased tariffs on imports from Europe, which could lead to higher prices for American consumers.
  2. Some European manufacturers will invest heavily in the U.S., which might create jobs here but could cost jobs in Europe.
  3. While the deal may benefit European consumers by reducing their tariffs, it's uncertain how it will impact American jobs or consumer prices in the long run.

The Supreme Court's Holding Action Against Autocracy

Gideon's Substack • 11 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. The Supreme Court ruled that the president cannot unilaterally impose or remove tariffs by declaring an emergency, and tariff power properly belongs to Congress so courts will read broad delegations narrowly.
  2. The Roberts Court pairs strong presidential control inside the executive with a strict approach to congressional delegations on major questions, forcing the executive to get clear authorization from Congress for big policy moves.
  3. In practice, partisan Congresses may refuse to reassert their authority, leaving the Court only able to veto and causing paralysis or temporary executive actions that businesses treat as law until voters and lawmakers fix it.

This Week in Canada: Join ISIS, Spend One Day in Jail

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 454 implied HN points • 29 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Canada has finally started exporting its natural gas, which could boost its economy. It has the fifth-largest natural gas reserves in the world but faced years of delays.
  2. Political issues and regulatory hurdles slowed down Canada's energy independence. Now, with LNG exports to Asia, it’s making a significant shift.
  3. The first major LNG shipment from Canada has reached South Korea, marking a new chapter for the country in global energy markets. This could help Canada diversify its trade and strengthen its economy.

Trump Is Losing All His Trade Wars, Badly

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 353 implied HN points • 21 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Trump's trade wars aren't helping America. The costs of these tariffs are mostly falling on American consumers and businesses, while the claimed benefits are not materializing.
  2. The tariffs are causing confusion and chaos in the market, making it harder for businesses to plan and invest. This uncertainty is hurting the economy more than the direct costs of the tariffs.
  3. Other countries are finding ways to adapt and strengthen their economies despite U.S. tariffs. The U.S. risks losing its place in global trade as businesses look for alternatives beyond the American market.

Japan and Trump

ChinaTalk • 459 implied HN points • 18 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Japan and Trump have a complicated relationship shaped by past trade issues. Japan needs to impress Trump with big surprises to maintain good ties.
  2. Shinzo Abe was skilled at building a personal friendship with Trump, which made interactions smoother. Their relationship was based on mutual respect and understanding.
  3. Japanese public opinion is very cautious towards China, driven by history and recent events. Political leadership needs to address both national security and public concerns.

Losing Friends, Hobbling Manufacturing Businesses & Workers, & Sabotaging Growth with One Inept Chaos-Monkey Tariff Trick

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 438 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Trump's tariffs have hurt U.S. manufacturing workers by making their products less competitive compared to foreign goods. This has led to frustration among both workers and company managers.
  2. The uncertainty caused by Trump's chaotic trade policies has made it hard for businesses to plan and has created a hostile environment for international trade. This unpredictability can lead to increased costs for consumers.
  3. Many experts believe that Trump's trade deals not only fail to reduce the trade deficit but also risk slowing U.S. economic growth. The long-term effects may include lower wages and a weaker economy for American households.

What's Going on with Trump's Trade Wars? An Update

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 476 implied HN points • 13 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Trump's trade policy is very unpredictable. Instead of solid agreements, it focuses on entertainment and headlines, which causes confusion among allies and markets.
  2. There are no real trade deals happening; just vague announcements without any legal commitment. This lack of credibility makes other countries hesitant to cooperate with the U.S.
  3. Decoupling from the U.S. is becoming a trend as other countries seek reliable partners. This shift could weaken America's economic power in the long run.

Chartbook 337 The stakes in the struggle over Trump's trade strategy.

Chartbook • 1473 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Trump's new trade strategy might lead to higher tariffs, which could raise prices for consumers. It’s planned to increase average tariffs from 2.6% to around 8% by 2026.
  2. Certain industries, especially car companies and food importers, could be hit hard by these tariffs. This could lead to increased car prices and food shortages.
  3. The success of Trump’s trade policy depends on balancing the interests of trade and public opinion. If people react negatively, it could limit how far he can go with these new tariffs.

Top Links 833 How tariffs hit Japanese cars. Why wifi on European trains sucks. Meloni builds a bridge and Saddam's romance novels.

Chartbook • 314 implied HN points • 18 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Tariffs can really hurt Japanese car manufacturers, as they affect how many cars they can sell in markets like the U.S.
  2. European trains often have poor wifi, making it frustrating for travelers who want to stay connected.
  3. There's an interesting cultural angle to politics, as seen with Meloni's bridge project and Saddam Hussein's unconventional romantic novels.

The game theory of Trump's tariff threats

Silver Bulletin • 978 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy
  1. Trump's tariff threats focus on Canada and Mexico, two neighbors that depend heavily on the U.S. for trade. This puts the U.S. in a position of power, even if such threats can backfire.
  2. The economics suggest that while tariffs might hurt all involved, Canada and Mexico would suffer significantly more than the U.S. This creates a dangerous imbalance in trade negotiations.
  3. Trump's approach may work as a short-term tactic, but it risks future relations with Canada and Mexico, leading to resentment and potential retaliation if pressured too much.