CalculatedRisk Newsletter

The CalculatedRisk Newsletter focuses on in-depth analysis and updates on the real estate market, including housing sales, mortgage rates, housing inventory, credit scores, market dynamics, policy proposals, and economic implications of events like the pandemic on housing. It combines data-driven insights with forecasts and trends.

Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Sales and Inventory Mortgage Rates and Debt Economic Trends Affecting Real Estate Policy and Regulatory Changes Market Forecasts and Predictions

The hottest Substack posts of CalculatedRisk Newsletter

And their main takeaways

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in April

86 implied HN points • 10 May 23
  1. The post discusses an analysis of local housing markets in April.
  2. The data covers closed sales in April, reflecting contracts from previous months.
  3. Readers can access more details by subscribing to the CalculatedRisk newsletter for a 7-day trial.

Lawler: Rent Trends at some Large Holders of Multifamily Properties

28 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Economics Finance Market Analysis Housing
  1. Rent growth has slowed sharply at large holders of multifamily properties like MAA, Equity Residential, and Avalon Bay Communities in the past year.
  2. Despite overall rent growth slowdown, year-over-year growth in rent renewals remained in the 4.5% - 5% range in January, showing a different trend.
  3. There is a lesson to be learned from the 1994-1995 Fed tightening episode where the Federal Reserve raised the policy rate significantly without triggering a recession, providing valuable insights for current monetary policymaking.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October

52 implied HN points • 10 Oct 23
  1. House prices have been increasing over the past months across different measures.
  2. Multiple sources show that house prices are expected to continue to rise in the coming months.
  3. The Case-Shiller National index is down 3.4% from its peak in real terms.

Asking Rent Growth Flat Year-over-year

71 implied HN points • 05 Jul 23
  1. Asking rent growth is flat year-over-year.
  2. Realtor.com reports the first year-over-year rent decline in their data.
  3. Tracking rents is important for understanding housing market dynamics.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October

52 implied HN points • 09 Oct 23
  1. New home listings were down by 9.1% year-over-year in September compared to the previous months, showing a smaller decline in comparison.
  2. Local housing markets that were tracked displayed smaller declines in new listings during August and September, signaling positive changes.
  3. The impact of higher mortgage rates led to a historically low level of new listings, influencing the active inventory in the housing market.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: "First-Time Homebuyers Make Up Record 47% of GSE Purchase Loans"

28 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
💰 Finance Mortgages Delinquencies
  1. First-time homebuyers constituted a significant portion of GSE purchase loans in 2023, reaching a record 47%, the highest in at least a decade.
  2. Mortgage originations in 2023 hit a 30-year low, with a heavy focus on purchase transactions, while refinance lending showed potential for growth if rates decrease.
  3. In January, mortgage delinquencies dropped to 3.38%, the lowest level since October, indicating a positive trend below pre-pandemic levels.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September

52 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
  1. Closed sales in September were impacted by higher mortgage rates compared to the previous year.
  2. Local housing markets such as Las Vegas experienced stable prices but significant changes in inventory levels.
  3. The rise in mortgage rates in August and September is expected to lead to a new cycle low in closed home sales in October and November.

Asking Rents Down 1.2% Year-over-year

47 implied HN points • 02 Nov 23
  1. Asking rents have decreased by 1.2% year-over-year.
  2. Household formation has slowed, leading to a decline in asking rents.
  3. There is a trend of declining rent prices nationally across various reports.

2023 Housing Forecasts

119 implied HN points • 08 Dec 22
  1. New home sales in 2022 expected around 640 thousand, down from 771 thousand in 2021.
  2. Total housing starts in 2022 estimated at 1.55 million, slightly lower than 2021's 1.60 million.
  3. Existing home sales in 2022 projected around 5.1 million.

New Home Sales increase to 763,000 Annual Rate in May

71 implied HN points • 27 Jun 23
  1. New Home Sales increased to a rate of 763,000 in May
  2. The Median New Home Price is down by 16.2% from its peak
  3. Consider subscribing to CalculatedRisk Newsletter for more insights

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May

81 implied HN points • 11 May 23
  1. The housing market shows a decrease in new listings for April compared to the previous year.
  2. The post offers a two-part overview of the housing market in mid-April.
  3. Readers can access the full post archives with a 7-day free trial of the CalculatedRisk newsletter.

Lawler: Single Family Rent Trends at AMH and Invitation Homes

57 implied HN points • 05 Sep 23
  1. The article discusses rent trends in single-family homes by AMH and Invitation Homes.
  2. Data from housing economist Tom Lawler is analyzed, adding to the discussion on rent trends.
  3. Readers can access the full article and archives with a 7-day free trial of the CalculatedRisk Newsletter.

Atlanta Fed: Home Ownership Affordability Monitor

62 implied HN points • 09 Aug 23
  1. House prices are impacted by low inventory and affordability concerns.
  2. The Atlanta Fed provides a Home Ownership Affordability Monitor for tracking changes in home ownership affordability.
  3. Readers can access the full post and archives with a 7-day free trial of the CalculatedRisk Newsletter.

Lawler: Update on Mortgage/Treasury Spreads

71 implied HN points • 15 Jun 23
  1. Update on Mortgage/Treasury Spreads provided by housing economist Tom Lawler.
  2. Information on the wider spread between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield.
  3. Access to full post archives with a 7-day free trial of the CalculatedRisk Newsletter.

NMHC: "Apartment Market Continues to Loosen"

47 implied HN points • 20 Oct 23
  1. The apartment market is experiencing continued weakening according to the NMHC Quarterly Survey
  2. Transactions in the apartment market are pulling back due to rising capital costs
  3. Consider subscribing to CalculatedRisk Newsletter for more insights on the current apartment market conditions

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.4% Below Peak

62 implied HN points • 28 Jul 23
  1. Inflation Adjusted House Prices are 4.4% below the peak.
  2. Price-to-rent index is 7.9% below the recent peak.
  3. It's important to consider prices in real terms, adjusted for inflation.

Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

90 implied HN points • 14 Mar 23
  1. REO refers to lender Real Estate Owned.
  2. There was an expectation of an increase in REOs in late 2022 and 2023.
  3. The increase in REOs was not anticipated to lead to a surge in foreclosures or significantly impact house prices.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September

47 implied HN points • 17 Oct 23
  1. Existing home sales in September were estimated at 4.00 million, down from August.
  2. The National Association of Realtors reported a 1.0% decrease in the sales pace.
  3. Sales were down 14.5% compared to the previous year.

"Home ATM" is Closing

90 implied HN points • 09 Mar 23
  1. During the housing bubble, many borrowed against home equity, known as \
  2. This practice contributed to the subsequent housing crisis
  3. Currently, very few homeowners have negative equity in their homes

Year-over-year Rent Growth Continues to Decelerate

71 implied HN points • 02 Jun 23
  1. Year-over-year rent growth is slowing down.
  2. Asking rents are likely to decrease in June or July.
  3. Tracking rents is crucial for understanding the housing market dynamics.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May

66 implied HN points • 23 Jun 23
  1. Listings in Texas and Florida are up more than in most other areas.
  2. The post tracks closed sales, new listings, and active inventory in over 40 local housing markets in the US.
  3. Subscribe to the CalculatedRisk Newsletter for a 7-day free trial to access full post archives.

Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March

86 implied HN points • 15 Mar 23
  1. Monthly payments for the same house have increased by 44% year-over-year.
  2. New listings in the housing market hit a record low for February.
  3. Consider subscribing to CalculatedRisk Newsletter for more insights on the housing market.

4th Look at Local Markets in April

71 implied HN points • 17 May 23
  1. The NAR is expected to report sales of around 4.33 million for April.
  2. Existing home sales are projected to be down 2.5% from March's pace.
  3. Housing economist Tom Lawler made a projection based on local realtor reports.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April

71 implied HN points • 16 May 23
  1. Existing home sales in April were estimated to run at a rate of 4.33 million, down from March.
  2. The existing home sales rate in April was 22.3% lower compared to the previous year.
  3. To continue reading the full post and access the archives, a 7-day free trial subscription is available.