CalculatedRisk Newsletter

The CalculatedRisk Newsletter focuses on in-depth analysis and updates on the real estate market, including housing sales, mortgage rates, housing inventory, credit scores, market dynamics, policy proposals, and economic implications of events like the pandemic on housing. It combines data-driven insights with forecasts and trends.

Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Sales and Inventory Mortgage Rates and Debt Economic Trends Affecting Real Estate Policy and Regulatory Changes Market Forecasts and Predictions

The hottest Substack posts of CalculatedRisk Newsletter

And their main takeaways

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December

43 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
  1. Existing home sales hit a new cycle low in December.
  2. New listings were up year-over-year for the 3rd month in a row.
  3. Sales in December were down 8%, showing a significant decline compared to 2019.
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3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

33 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Market Mortgage Rates
  1. The closed sales in February were mostly for contracts signed when mortgage rates were lower than in the previous months. This signifies a trend of lower mortgage rates impacting sales.
  2. Active inventory in February showed mixed trends with some areas experiencing significant year-over-year increases in inventory while others saw decreases compared to 2019.
  3. New listings in February were up year-over-year, but still remained at historically low levels. Most areas reported lower new listings compared to January 2019.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in June

86 implied HN points • 11 Jul 23
  1. The second look at local housing markets in June shows existing home sales may be at or below May rates.
  2. Data is being tracked from a sample of 40 local housing markets in the US, including states and metropolitan areas.
  3. Closed sales in June largely reflect contracts signed in April and May.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November

57 implied HN points • 09 Nov 23
  1. New home listings have shown a year-over-year decline, but the decrease is slowing down due to collapsed listings from the previous year.
  2. Local housing markets have seen a significant decrease in new listings year-over-year, attributed to homeowners staying in their current homes with low mortgage rates.
  3. Active inventory has been impacted by the decrease in new listings in the housing market.

Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

33 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Equity Rates
  1. Most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes, which helps prevent a surge in foreclosures that could impact house prices.
  2. The distribution of interest rates on mortgages shows that a large percentage are under 4%, making it easier for homeowners to manage financially.
  3. Understanding key housing terms like forbearance, delinquency, foreclosure, and REO (Real Estate Owned) can help navigate discussions about property ownership.

NMHC: "Apartment Market Continues to Loosen"

81 implied HN points • 18 Jul 23
  1. The apartment market is weakening according to the NMHC report.
  2. There is a decline in transactions due to the rising cost of capital.
  3. Consider subscribing to CalculatedRisk Newsletter for more insights.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November

47 implied HN points • 19 Dec 23
  1. California Home Sales Down 6% YoY in October
  2. NAR to release November existing home sales data soon
  3. Consider subscribing to CalculatedRisk Newsletter for more housing market insights

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in June

81 implied HN points • 14 Jul 23
  1. This post looks at local housing markets in June using data from about 40 markets in the US.
  2. Closed sales in June mostly reflect contracts signed in April and May.
  3. Readers can access the full post archives with a 7-day free trial subscription to the CalculatedRisk Newsletter.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in August

66 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
  1. Tracking local housing markets in August to compare to national data
  2. Closed sales in August were influenced by mortgage rate trends
  3. Active inventory in August showed a slight year-over-year decline

New Home Sales increase to 714,000 Annual Rate in July

71 implied HN points • 23 Aug 23
  1. New Home Sales increased to 714,000 Annual Rate in July.
  2. Median New Home Price is Down 12% from the Peak.
  3. The Census Bureau reports that the previous three months were revised down for New Home Sales.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September

66 implied HN points • 13 Sep 23
  1. New listings in the housing market were down about 7.5% year-over-year in August, an improvement from the 20.8% decline in July.
  2. The decline in new listings in August for some local markets was smaller compared to previous months.
  3. Consider subscribing to CalculatedRisk Newsletter for more insights on the housing market trends.

Some More Good News for Homebuilders

86 implied HN points • 19 Jun 23
  1. This housing cycle is different from the past, showing a unique recovery pattern.
  2. New home sales are represented in a comparison graph from different periods.
  3. Potential underestimation of current new home sales due to decreasing cancellation rates.

Asking Rents Down 1.2% Year-over-year

62 implied HN points • 28 Sep 23
  1. Asking rents have decreased by 1.2% year-over-year, indicating a significant drop from previous growth rates.
  2. Multiple rental market sources show a trend of declining rents, with the steepest drop in September.
  3. Various reports confirm a consistent decline in rent growth over consecutive months, pointing to a potential shift in the rental market.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.4% Below Peak

62 implied HN points • 27 Sep 23
  1. Inflation adjusted house prices are currently 3.4% below their peak.
  2. The price-to-rent index is 7.4% below its recent peak.
  3. It's important to consider real prices and factors like affordability when analyzing housing market data.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in August

62 implied HN points • 25 Sep 23
  1. Monthly tracking of housing market data in over 40 local markets around the US for insights on market changes.
  2. Importance of analyzing regional differences in housing market trends.
  3. Offering a 7-day free trial to the CalculatedRisk Newsletter for access to full post archives.

Preliminary 2024 Housing Forecasts

57 implied HN points • 16 Oct 23
  1. Preliminary 2024 housing forecasts include 6%+ mortgage rates and sharp declines in multi-family starts
  2. New home sales in 2023 expected to be around 675 thousand, up from 641 thousand in 2022
  3. Total housing starts expected to be around 1.38 million

The "Home ATM" was Closed in Q1

86 implied HN points • 08 Jun 23
  1. During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity.
  2. This borrowing was often referred to as using the "Home ATM."
  3. Negative equity in homes contributed to the housing bust when prices declined.

Asking Rents Down 1.2% Year-over-year

66 implied HN points • 31 Aug 23
  1. Asking rents have decreased by 1.2% year-over-year.
  2. Tracking rents is crucial for understanding the housing market dynamics.
  3. Surge in household formations, especially due to work-from-home situations.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November

43 implied HN points • 22 Dec 23
  1. New listings increased year-over-year in November.
  2. The post provides a final look at local housing markets in November.
  3. The author compares active listings, new listings, and closings to the same month in 2019.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.1% Below Peak

52 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
  1. Inflation adjusted house prices are currently 3.1% below their peak.
  2. The price-to-rent index is 7.0% below its recent peak.
  3. It's important to consider real prices and the price-to-rent ratio when analyzing the housing market.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Declines for 7th Consecutive Month in December

114 implied HN points • 07 Feb 23
  1. Freddie Mac House Price Index decreased for 7 consecutive months in December.
  2. 36 states have observed price declines when seasonally adjusted.
  3. The index is a repeat sales index focusing on Fannie and Freddie loans, with data available for all states and many cities.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November with Comparison to 2019

43 implied HN points • 15 Dec 23
  1. The post provides a comparison of local housing markets in November 2019 and November 2023.
  2. Closed sales in November were impacted by fluctuating mortgage rates.
  3. Regional differences in inventory levels are notable, with some markets experiencing increases while others are seeing decreases.

Mortgage Rate Update

95 implied HN points • 06 Apr 23
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. The most prevalent 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now at 6.18% for top tier scenarios.
  2. There is usually a steady spread between the ten-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rates.
  3. The spread between Treasury yields and mortgage rates has widened recently.