The hottest Alliances Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top World Politics Topics

The Logic of Catastrophe

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 12 implied HN points • 21 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. More nuclear-armed states sharply increase the chance of nuclear war because each new actor creates many more risky bilateral relationships, and new, small arsenals tend toward hair‑trigger postures and weak command‑and‑control.
  2. Keeping launch‑on‑warning postures and letting AI drive early‑warning and decision systems compresses decision time, breeds automation bias, and makes false alarms far more likely to trigger an irreversible nuclear launch.
  3. Democracies and their citizens must demand seriousness: restore credible, durable security guarantees, pursue de‑alerting and arms‑control measures, strengthen command‑and‑control and leader fitness standards, and reward restraint over spectacle.

Speaking of the Russian Navy

CDR Salamander • 1336 implied HN points • 23 May 23
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. High profile alliance units like SNMG2 are important for refining cooperation and professionalism among nations.
  2. The condition of warships like USS James E. Williams reflects on the nation's Navy and impacts perceptions of health, morale, and respect.
  3. Proper maintenance and stewardship of warships are crucial for representing the nation well and maintaining credibility with allies and competitors.

How to win a war

kamilkazani • 923 implied HN points • 02 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. Russia's military production could lead to victory in a war if not addressed
  2. Betting against US allies may alter global perceptions and US political influence
  3. Metalworking is crucial for weapon production and heavily reliant on Western imports

A Document For a New American Century (Part 1 of 2)

Fisted by Foucault • 81 implied HN points • 14 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. U.S. foreign policy has long been unpredictable, which makes it hard for other countries to plan and for alliances to be stable.
  2. The 2025 National Security Strategy signals a realist shift away from liberal globalism, stressing national sovereignty, bilateral deals, and an acceptance that U.S. global domination is limited.
  3. That shift contains a clear tension: the administration wants to avoid "forever wars" and not confront Russia and China simultaneously, yet still prevent rivals from dominating places like the Middle East, creating practical contradictions in policy.
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Burkina Faso's new president condemns imperialism, quotes Che Guevara, allies with Nicaragua, Venezuela, Cuba

Geopolitical Economy Report • 857 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. Burkina Faso's President Ibrahim Traoré takes a strong stand against imperialism and neocolonialism, inspired by revolutionary leaders like Thomas Sankara and Che Guevara.
  2. The new government in Burkina Faso has forged alliances with countries like Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba, aiming to break free from Western dominance and historical colonial ties.
  3. Prime Minister Tambèla's visits to Venezuela and Nicaragua showcase Burkina Faso's efforts to strengthen ties with Latin American revolutionary movements, building on historical solidarity and shared struggles.

Strategic Blindness

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 21 implied HN points • 25 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. Intelligence often exists but leaders fail to act because they expect certainty, stick to predecided plans, and worry more about political optics than reality.
  2. Institutions that rely on outdated models—the 'Maginot mindset'—become brittle and can’t adapt to new forms of attack or surprise, so material strength alone is not enough.
  3. Weakening alliances, the dollar’s long-term status, and sustained gray‑zone pressure show that hard power used transactionally backfires; democracies need to shift from top‑down control to enabling distributed, adaptive responses.

US blew up Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia to Germany, journalist Seymour Hersh reports

Geopolitical Economy Report • 558 implied HN points • 11 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. The US government, with the help of CIA, Navy divers, and NATO member Norway, reportedly destroyed the Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia to Germany.
  2. There were denial from the White House and CIA about the covert operation, illustrating how they can legally lie to the public about such actions.
  3. US's planning to destroy Nord Stream began before Russia invaded Ukraine, with the operation executed by US Navy divers placing explosives on the pipelines during NATO exercises.

Taiwan separatists lose key ally, Honduras recognizes China - just 12 small countries remain

Geopolitical Economy Report • 478 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. Honduras has shifted its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, leaving just 12 small countries supporting Taiwan separatists
  2. The majority of the global population resides in countries recognizing the People's Republic of China while Taiwan is acknowledged officially only by a handful of countries
  3. The decision by Honduras to break ties with Taiwan and embrace China is largely driven by economic factors, especially China's offered assistance in dealing with Honduras' significant economic challenges

It Profits a Nation Nothing to Give Its Soul for the Whole World . . . But for Greenland?

Gideon's Substack • 19 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Alliances
  1. The push to "own" Greenland revives a long-standing American interest, but openly threatening an allied country to get it is unprecedented and alarming.
  2. The United States already has broad military access to Greenland, so trying to acquire it outright looks unnecessary and risks seriously damaging ties with Denmark and other European allies.
  3. The president’s unpredictable theatrics could either spur Europe to rearm and become more strategically independent—which might be beneficial—or alienate allies and push them toward rivals like China, with dangerous long-term costs.

Russia-China-Islam: The New Superpower?

Kevin’s Newsletter • 432 implied HN points • 01 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. Huntington's prediction of civilizational wars has some truth as US-led attacks unite Russia, China, and Islam.
  2. US pursued a war against traditional civilizations to impose neoliberalism globally.
  3. Russia-China alliance resists US empire as China maneuvers for peace while Russia stands strong militarily.

Trump or Biden: Who is Best for China?

Sinification • 176 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. A second term for Biden may mean a more stable relationship with China, but also potential challenges like increased competition and pressure on Chinese scientific innovation.
  2. A second term for Trump could ease external strategic pressure faced by China, but it might lead to a tougher stance on China and increased complexity in economic and security rivalry.
  3. The Trump administration's policies might reduce some external strategic pressure on China, create more space for international alliances, and exert less pressure on China in the ideological field compared to the Democrats.

"Trump's Alarming Rhetoric: A Gift to Putin"

Unmasking Russia • 137 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. Trump's alarming rhetoric towards NATO raises concerns about the future of transatlantic security if he were to win the election.
  2. The need to address foreign interference in democratic institutions becomes urgent with Trump's willingness to align with Putin and seek assistance in the upcoming election.
  3. Trump's criticism of allies and questioning of NATO's value highlight the uncertainty of U.S. foreign policy and its implications for international stability.

The End of Empires

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 4 implied HN points • 08 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. Traditional US allies are striking independent deals with China, as seen in Canada’s new strategic partnership and tariff reductions.
  2. Past confrontations like tariffs and high‑profile arrests haven’t stopped rapprochement, showing countries often prioritize trade and economic benefit over political alignment.
  3. Those shifts weaken alliance cohesion and indicate that growing economic ties to China could challenge U.S. global leadership.

How Will The Ukraine War End?

John’s Substack • 6 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. Ukraine could collapse on the battlefield soon because Russia currently has the upper hand in forces, a favorable casualty-exchange ratio, and Western military support is dwindling.
  2. If Ukraine does not collapse, Russia may escalate massively to force an end to the war, and some Russian strategists are openly urging extreme measures.
  3. While the use of nuclear weapons is considered unlikely, desperate great powers can still take drastic risks — as shown by Japan's surprise attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941.

The Davos Donnybrook

John’s Substack • 8 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. Mark Carney warned of a growing rupture between the United States and its NATO allies, signaling rising transatlantic tensions.
  2. Trump used his Davos speech to push a radical shift in U.S. foreign policy, emphasizing tougher and unconventional approaches.
  3. His 'Board of Peace,' originally aimed at Gaza, has morphed into a proposal that could serve as an alternative to the United Nations.

Imran Khan: Pakistan should be non-aligned in cold war, neutral over Ukraine, applauds China

Geopolitical Economy Report • 219 implied HN points • 03 Jan 23
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. Imran Khan advocates for Pakistan to be non-aligned in cold wars, neutral in proxy conflicts, and have good relations with multiple nations like China, Russia, and the US.
  2. Khan emphasizes the importance of Pakistan maintaining neutrality in global conflicts to protect its own interests, citing the negative impacts of taking sides.
  3. Khan praises China's remarkable anti-poverty efforts and stresses the necessity of not engaging in nuclear warfare to prevent catastrophic consequences.

What if the US seizes Greenland?

Optimally Irrational • 6 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. Seizing Greenland by force would be a massive political and geopolitical blunder. It would gain little but risk damaging America’s alliances and long-term influence.
  2. International relations aren’t just a Hobbesian free-for-all; states sustain cooperation through norms and repeated interaction because it’s mutually beneficial. Breaking those conventions would undermine the rule-based order that helps preserve U.S. power.
  3. Even if a takeover were politically possible at home, the international costs and backlash would be severe and short-sighted, making the move strategically counterproductive.

NATO Was Inside All of Us the Whole Time

I Might Be Wrong • 6 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. NATO’s core promise of mutual defense is effectively dead because current U.S. leadership is unlikely to honor Article 5, leaving the alliance as a coordination club without real enforcement.
  2. International agreements only work when parties care about credibility and are willing to enforce commitments, so when a major player abandons those norms the rules become optional and lose power.
  3. Allies are already adjusting to that reality and NATO could be rebuilt under different leadership, so the pragmatic response is to accept the break and begin planning new or renewed security arrangements.

Allied Scale and the Future of the West

European Straits • 14 implied HN points • 16 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Alliances
  1. The West needs better coordination between the US and Europe to strengthen their combined power. It's not just about having resources; it's about how well they work together.
  2. The Russia-Ukraine war shows that winning wars relies on strong alliances and manufacturing capacity. Good partnerships can help endure longer conflicts more effectively.
  3. After World War II, NATO and the European project helped turn Europe's available resources into real power. They fostered cooperation and stability that made the region stronger.

Sino-Soviet Split 2.0

ChinaTalk • 370 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. The partnership between Russia and China may not be as strong as it seems, with a 75% chance of it collapsing due to differing views on separatism.
  2. China and Russia have different perspectives on separatism, with China focusing on maintaining territorial unity while Russia supports separatist movements in neighboring regions.
  3. The stability of the alliance between China and Russia is questionable, and smart diplomatic maneuvering by democracies can help exploit the ideological cracks between these two powerful autocracies.

Venezuela and Iran sign 20-year cooperation plan, Maduro pledges joint 'anti-imperialist struggle'

Geopolitical Economy Report • 259 implied HN points • 12 Jun 22
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. Venezuela and Iran signed a 20-year cooperation agreement focusing on energy, technology, and trade, emphasizing an 'anti-imperialist struggle.'
  2. The agreement covers various sectors like science, technology, agriculture, oil and gas, petrochemicals, tourism, and culture.
  3. This pact showcases a trend of South-South cooperation against Western imperialism, with Iran and Venezuela facing common challenges like unilateral US sanctions.

EU calls China and Russia ‘threats’ in ‘war for the future of the entire world’

Geopolitical Economy Report • 159 implied HN points • 14 Oct 22
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. European Union leader Ursula von der Leyen sees China and Russia as global threats to Western hegemony, and is working to weaken their influence and expand EU power.
  2. The EU is implementing a Global Gateway investment program to challenge China's Belt and Road Initiative and secure natural resources for renewable energy technologies.
  3. Von der Leyen highlights the strengthening of the transatlantic bond through increased US energy imports, emphasizing the reduction of European reliance on Russian fossil fuels.

Saturday Commentary and Review #151

Fisted by Foucault • 311 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. A crisis of competency is looming due to the erosion of meritocracy in decision-making processes, particularly in the US, impacting institutions like the FAA.
  2. The UK's subordinate role to the USA, known as 'Atlanticism' and the 'Special Relationship,' raises questions about the country's autonomy and benefits from the alliance.
  3. The case of Israel facing genocide allegations at The Hague highlights global divisions in support, with countries like the US and Germany rejecting the accusations while others, mainly from the Islamic world, show solidarity.

It is not Nicaragua that is 'isolated'; it's the US and EU

Geopolitical Economy Report • 239 implied HN points • 11 Jan 22
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. Nicaragua's Sandinista government is not isolated but has support from countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
  2. Western corporate media disregards the large allies of Nicaragua in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, focusing on the US and EU.
  3. The international influence is shifting as Asia progresses, Latin America and Africa develop, and South-South integration strengthens.

The paradox of power

Optimally Irrational • 50 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Alliances
  1. Powerful players often face the risk of others banding together against them. People see a strong player as a threat and may act to limit their power.
  2. Trust is essential for maintaining coalitions. If powerful players break promises or act unpredictably, they can lose their allies and influence.
  3. Strong alliances are built on historical trust and cooperation. Countries like the US have managed to stay influential by being reliable partners to others.

Britain admitted US/UK-backed Afghan Mujahideen were 'reactionary feudalists' driven primarily by class, not religion

Geopolitical Economy Report • 199 implied HN points • 04 Sep 21
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. British and US backed Afghan Mujahideen were motivated by class issues, not religion, as they resisted socialist reforms in Afghanistan.
  2. The US and UK orchestrated a strategy, starting in the 1970s, to draw the Soviet Union into the 'Afghan trap' by supporting far-right Islamist elements.
  3. Britain acknowledged in 1980 that Afghan Mujahideen fought against land reforms and wealth redistribution policies, revealing the conflict's class nature rather than purely religious.

Why Olaf Scholz is not a "peace Chancellor," why Ukraine still stands a good chance of getting their cruise missiles, and why the entire debate surrounding Taurus is such a riddle

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 109 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. Olaf Scholz is not a 'peace Chancellor' as some perceive, with significant military aid to Ukraine, despite opposing certain weapons shipments. His low approval ratings and party struggle reflect the challenge he faces.
  2. The Taurus missile scandal in Germany has not conclusively hindered Ukraine's chances of acquiring cruise missiles. The leak has, however, intensified international pressure on Scholz to reconsider his stance.
  3. The debate surrounding the Taurus missile's significance has been plagued by the leak scandal, revealing security breaches and political consequences. The missile's effectiveness and the intense focus on it remain questionable.

NATO ascendant

Model Thinking • 39 implied HN points • 22 Jan 23
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. NATO's support for Ukraine during the war against Russia is crucial for Ukrainian victory
  2. A model using Cobb-Douglas production function estimates Western support needed at maximum Russian mobilization to achieve objectives
  3. The model suggests Russian victory in Ukraine is highly unlikely, with NATO likely able to finance Ukrainian victory or stalemate at current front lines

The End of American Hegemony

America in Crisis • 19 implied HN points • 14 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. American hegemony is facing internal conflicts and challenges, with declining ability to deter global conflicts.
  2. The concept of a potential future Global War involving major powers suggests the US may surrender hegemony without a strong fight due to divergent interests among American elites.
  3. Considering the changing dynamics globally, it might be in the US's interest to strategically withdraw from certain regions and relinquish hegemonic power in a controlled manner.

Can Ukraine's Air Defence Systems Cope?

Comment is Freed • 86 implied HN points • 19 May 23
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. Ukraine is seeking more modern weaponry and air defense systems to cope with Russian air power.
  2. Russian attacks on Ukraine are causing real damage and stress, especially targeting critical infrastructure.
  3. Ukraine has shown improvement in its air defense capabilities, successfully intercepting Russian missiles and drones.

Axis of Frenemies

Gideon's Substack • 31 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. America's alliance system has evolved over time from wartime to containment of Soviet Union to unclear objectives post-Cold War.
  2. Many of America's alliances are maintained more for influence and strategic reasons rather than deep common interests.
  3. The US is brokering peace agreements between Saudi Arabia and Israel to maintain influence, despite unclear benefits for America.

March 14, 2024

Letters from an American • 9 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Alliances
  1. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer urged Israelis to call new elections to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu due to his prioritization of personal political survival over the best interests of Israel.
  2. The recent U.S. ambassador to Hungary criticized Prime Minister Viktor Orbán for embracing Russian President Putin, undermining support for Ukraine, and openly supporting the return of former U.S. President Trump, warning of the risks of damaging relationships with democracies.
  3. In both Israel and Hungary, there is growing discontent with current leadership, signaling a potential shift towards more moderate government choices and renewed focus on democratic values and global alliances.