America in Crisis

The Substack 'America in Crisis' evaluates American economic and political situations through cultural evolutionary theory. It discusses radicalization, inflation, economic policies, cultural impacts on intelligence, and historical economic cycles, emphasizing the persistent influence of shareholder primacy on socio-economic structures and political dynamics.

Radicalization Cycles Inflation and Economic Policies Group Differences and Intelligence Cultural Evolution Historical Economic Cycles Shareholder vs. Stakeholder Capitalism American Political Dynamics Climate and Energy Policies American Foreign Policy Financial Crises Military and Hegemony

The hottest Substack posts of America in Crisis

And their main takeaways

The current crisis era

99 implied HN points • 19 Jun 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elite influence Fascism
  1. Pessimism surrounds the state of the American nation and the West, with concerns about civil strife, economic inequality, and extreme political ideologies on the rise.
  2. Secular cycle theory proposes that the current crisis period, marked by high political stress, is driven by rising inequality and elite competition.
  3. We are also experiencing a creedal passion period, involving cultural instability and radical ideologies, which may impact future political resolutions.

The Curse of the Dispensation

99 implied HN points • 04 Jun 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics History Politics Economy Society Foreign Policy
  1. Democrats shifted focus from the working class in favor of other constituencies like women and college students after a 1968 defeat
  2. The decline of Democratic dominance in 1968 was attributed to poor foreign policy choices like excessive military spending during peacetime
  3. Over time, holding onto a dominant party status can lead to complacency and eventual downfall, as seen in the transitions from the Roosevelt to Reagan dispensations

Thoughts on Inflation

139 implied HN points • 01 May 24
💰 Finance Inflation Interest Rates Government Policy Economic History
  1. The reduced-price model shows how cycles in prices correspond to inflation, especially during wartime when inflation tends to be higher due to deficit spending.
  2. The quantity theory of money explains the relationship between economic activity, money supply, and inflation, showcasing the importance of monetary factors in historical economic events.
  3. Analyzing the current inflation outlook using the money balance model highlights the potential for continued inflationary pressures and the challenges the Federal Reserve faces in managing inflation through interest rate adjustments.

How SP culture produces financial crisis

59 implied HN points • 01 Jul 24
💰 Finance Financial Crisis Economic Growth Corporate Profits Capitalism Taxation
  1. Financial crisis can stem from a shift in profit usage from investment to financial market growth, impacting economic growth.
  2. SP culture, focusing on shareholder returns through stock buybacks and dividends, can lead to financial instability and economic downturns.
  3. Minsky's financial instability hypothesis outlines how capitalist economies can transition from safe to risky financial structures, culminating in financial crises.

Why I don’t think neoliberalism is over

79 implied HN points • 10 Jun 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Neoliberalism Regulation Taxation Inequality Economy
  1. Neoliberalism post-1980 may not be defined by changes in regulation, but rather by tax policy, specifically tax cuts on high income individuals.
  2. The focus on shareholder primacy in economic culture has led to high executive compensation, stock buybacks, and low enterprise premium since Reaganomics, shaping the kind of capital growth favored in the economy.
  3. The decline in worker power, rise of inequality, and other neoliberal characteristics are tied to tax policies and economic culture, indicating that neoliberalism is still ongoing despite claims of its end.
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Nixon, Gore, the paths not taken

99 implied HN points • 24 May 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Presidential elections Fiscal Responsibility Political theory Government actions
  1. The end of the postwar economy was marked by stagflation due to the end of the gold standard in 1971 and fiscal deficits, impacting inflation and unemployment.
  2. The 1960 election acknowledged the risk of deficits on gold reserves, foreseen by Nixon, while Gore in 2000 aimed to maintain fiscal responsibility and pay down debt from surpluses.
  3. Political decisions from the 1960s to the 2000s reveal a shift in economic policies, with the consequences of deficit spending, tax cuts, and financial instability influencing different presidencies and shaping economic outcomes.

The Beveridge curve and cultural evolution

99 implied HN points • 16 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Labor Market Inflation Taxation Government spending
  1. Beveridge curves show the relationship between job vacancies and unemployment rates, highlighting changes in the labor market over time.
  2. Economic policies, such as tax laws and deficit spending, can impact factors like wages and inflation, influencing the overall economic environment.
  3. Cultural evolution in business practices is influenced by economic conditions and government policies, shaping the economy and labor market dynamics.

Cycles in Hegemony

99 implied HN points • 06 Apr 24
🌍 World Politics Hegemony
  1. Historically, shifts in world leadership have been linked to naval and economic power, with key nations projecting military and economic dominance as world leaders.
  2. The transition between world leaders often involves periods of Global War, where challenges are made to the existing world order, ultimately leading to a new world leader emerging.
  3. The Leadership Cycle theory suggests a pattern of phases including Global War, World Power, Delegitimation, and Deconcentration, following a cyclical pattern of rising and falling hegemons.

Shareholder Primacy Culture and American Decline

59 implied HN points • 23 Apr 24
💼 Business Economics Finance Culture Politics History
  1. The current economic system in the US, based on shareholder primacy culture, is facing challenges due to extreme asset valuations and one-sided interventions by the Federal Reserve.
  2. The decline of American civilization is attributed to a shift towards monumental financial architecture under shareholder value pursuit, leading to a lack of capacity for real production.
  3. Under shareholder primacy culture, America may struggle to compete with rising global powers like Russia and China due to a focus on financial gains over tangible achievements.

Two visions of America: Bedford Falls and Pottersville

99 implied HN points • 23 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Social Impact Political Ideology Government intervention Income Inequality
  1. The movie 'It’s a Wonderful Life' showcases two visions of America through Bedford Falls and Pottersville, illustrating the impact of individual actions on the community.
  2. The film emphasizes the importance of economic stimulus and the difference in societal outcomes between stakeholder capitalism (Bedford Falls) and shareholder primacy (Pottersville).
  3. There is a social contrast between SC (Bedford Falls) and SP (Pottersville) economic cultures, impacting birth rates, marriage rates, and family formation trends in America.

Cycles of Radicalization

219 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
🎭️ Culture Ideologies Social Trends Historical Analysis
  1. Wokeness and sociopolitical instability are part of larger cycles of radicalization and cultural instability in American society.
  2. The analysis suggests that the social and cultural turmoil of the present time is likely to be temporary, with some new ideas becoming integral to the nation's fabric.
  3. Historical patterns show that previous radical ideologies that did not stand the test of time, while others, like the ideologies of the Abolitionists, became significant parts of American culture.

A novel take on group differences in test scores. Part I

119 implied HN points • 31 Aug 23
🔬 Science Intelligence Evolution Genetics Culture Societies
  1. Culture plays a crucial role in group differences in test scores and IQ measurements, alongside genetics and environment.
  2. IQ scores are influenced by both genetic and cultural components, with culturally-loaded tests showing higher heritability.
  3. Over time, group differences in IQ can be attributed more to the cultural component rather than the genetic one, with national IQ averages possibly rising with economic growth.

War Cycles

39 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Military Spending
  1. Historian Quincy Wright proposed the existence of fifty-year cycles in great power wars, showing periodic fluctuations in war deaths.
  2. Psychological factors and social mood alternations may contribute to cycles of war fever and peace phases.
  3. American foreign policy moods, economic cycles, and social contagion theory may help explain war phases, as seen in the Vietnam War and beyond.

Not all political violence has the same implications

79 implied HN points • 27 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political violence Polarization
  1. Not all political violence has the same implications - January 6 violence poses a more serious threat than typical riots
  2. Violence caused by social contagion-promulgated radicalization is different from violence motivated by personal enmity - BLM protests and Mullins' threat are illustrative examples
  3. Understanding the categories of political violence, such as those influenced by social contagion or elite faction dynamics, can shed light on the underlying causes and potential implications

The problem with American foreign policy

99 implied HN points • 03 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Democracy Autocracy
  1. The concept of a coherent national interest in American foreign policy doesn't really apply to democracies.
  2. The shift in America's foreign policy approach over time reflects the influence of domestic politics and party dynamics.
  3. The lack of a unified American foreign policy strategy based on a consistent national interest poses challenges in global affairs and alliances.

An overview of my thesis in response to an incisive comment

99 implied HN points • 21 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Economy Culture Inequality History
  1. Leftists were not happy with President Obama's performance, believing he should have done more to oppose Republican-influenced policies.
  2. The shift in economic culture from stakeholder capitalism to shareholder primacy after 1981 has led to prioritizing shareholder interests over other stakeholders, resulting in growing income inequality.
  3. The discussion around economic policy typically focuses on job creation over wages and income, reflecting a shareholder primacy culture, which has implications for economic outcomes and equality.

A different way to look at solar

59 implied HN points • 30 Dec 23
🔬 Science Solar Power Energy Sources Climate change Infrastructure
  1. Solar power, despite being intermittent, can be made more efficient with government assistance and innovative solutions like storing excess electricity as hydrogen.
  2. Creating a widespread network of solar-powered hydrogen wells could lead to a cost-effective production of green aviation fuel, potentially revolutionizing the energy industry.
  3. Investing in infrastructure for renewable energy, like hydrogen wells, can serve as a stimulus project, offering economic growth opportunities and addressing critical environmental concerns.

Generational Cycles

19 implied HN points • 10 May 24
🚌 Education History Societal Trends
  1. Generations influence world views and behaviors, shaping and being shaped by the times they live in.
  2. Generations have peer personalities based on the historical location relative to social moments, impacting civic engagement and values orientation.
  3. Generations go through phases like youth, rising adulthood, mature adulthood, and elderhood, each influenced by the social moments they experience, contributing to cyclical historical patterns.

The Irrelevance of Today’s Left

79 implied HN points • 31 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Progressives Democrats Republicans
  1. Populists in the late 19th century were concerned with economic harm on small farmers, forming political alliances to combat big corporations and finance.
  2. Socialist-Labor parties focused on working class issues and sought rights like collective bargaining, influenced by the works of Marx and Engels.
  3. Progressives aimed to reform the system, implement economic and regulatory changes, eventually transforming into liberals and embracing neoliberal economics.

Rise of Civilization, Part I

59 implied HN points • 21 Dec 23
💾 History Civilization Cultural Evolution Religion Institutions Economic Development
  1. Humans scaled society to manage larger groups through cultural evolution, harnessing collective brain power.
  2. Living under the 'gossip trap' limited social organization, fostering a focus on reputation management over innovation.
  3. The rise of Western civilization was influenced by factors like Church initiatives, shifting societal foundations towards commerce, education, and meritocracy.

America is unlikely to defeat a peer opponent

59 implied HN points • 07 Dec 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Military Economy Election Policy Parties
  1. America is struggling to maintain hegemony due to shifts in military production potential favoring autocratic powers.
  2. Building up military power would strain government finances, potentially leading to higher deficits and inflation.
  3. To revive capabilities like the Arsenal of Democracy, a political dispensation supporting non-financial production needs to replace the current focus on shareholder wealth under the Reagan dispensation.

Cultural evolution and testing (Part II)

79 implied HN points • 05 Sep 23
📖 Philosophy Cultural Evolution
  1. Successful groups have pre-existing cultural structures that help them acquire useful information for success, leading to higher levels of cultural growth.
  2. Cultural beliefs and norms underlying group success are a result of cultural evolution, with some groups having more CG-enhancing cultural structures than others.
  3. Historical events like colonization and slavery have influenced different groups' cultural evolution and levels of cultural growth, impacting their success and development.

Effects of business cultural evolution on the stock market

39 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
💼 Business Stock Market Investors Financial Strategies
  1. Different business cultures like stakeholder theory and shareholder capitalism lead to distinct stock market behaviors and attract different types of investors.
  2. The strategy of using share buybacks to boost earnings per share and stock prices can lead to acquisitions and positive market movements for growth stocks.
  3. The transition from stakeholder theory to shareholder primacy in business cultures can impact stakeholders like employees, customers, and the community, as seen in examples like Boeing's safety concerns.

The abstract versus the real in left politics

59 implied HN points • 16 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Democratic Party Civil Rights Movement Identity politics
  1. The Left has become disconnected from tangible reforms and needs to focus on addressing real issues to regain popular support.
  2. Historically, movements that blended real-world goals with abstract ideologies have been more successful in effecting change.
  3. Modern progressive ideologies often lack concrete applications and are detached from addressing real-world problems, limiting their impact.

Review of Michael Muthukrisha's new book A Theory of Everyone

39 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
🎭️ Culture Book review Cultural Evolution Human Evolution Energy Sources
  1. A Theory of Everyone by Michael Muthukrisha discusses the laws of life - Energy, Innovation, Cooperation, and Evolution - and how they shape the development of all life on Earth.
  2. The book explores the significance of cultural evolution in human intelligence, cooperation, and innovation, emphasizing education as a key factor in increasing intelligence.
  3. Muthukrisha's book addresses the future challenges and opportunities humanity faces, proposing solutions like immigrant assimilation models, governance changes, and promoting innovation through free speech and educational reform.

A proposal for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

59 implied HN points • 23 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Conflict resolution Middle East Diplomacy Foreign Policy
  1. US could strategically withdraw from parts of the world where its involvement is no longer needed, like Europe and the Middle East, and focus resources on other priorities.
  2. Separating Palestinians and Israelis could be a potential solution to the conflict, with options for Palestinians to emigrate in exchange for compensation.
  3. Involving Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in the solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could be achieved through leveraging American hegemonic power.

Some thoughts on industrial policy and green energy

59 implied HN points • 26 Aug 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Economy Climate Industrial Tax
  1. Shifting to green energy entails new products, manufacturing processes, and economic shifts.
  2. Industrial policy includes a range of government actions, such as subsidies, export support, and tariffs to promote specific industries.
  3. A carbon tax could drive a transition to green energy by making fossil fuels cost-prohibitive and encouraging the development of alternative energy sources like hydrogen and solar power.

Can a new Democratic order address the American Crisis?

59 implied HN points • 19 Aug 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Elections Economy Political parties Taxation
  1. The distribution of wealth between political parties impacts addressing issues like inequality, politics, and climate change.
  2. Historical patterns indicate a potential shift towards a new Democratic dispensation in the US political landscape.
  3. Economic factors, like job creation and inflation control, play crucial roles in shaping future electoral outcomes and party dynamics.

Rise of civilization Part 2

39 implied HN points • 21 Dec 23
💾 History Capitalism Industrial Revolution
  1. Capitalism involves the accumulation of capital through entrepreneurial growth ethic to increase labor productivity.
  2. Capitalism allowed a release from Malthusian limits to economic growth, enabling the rise in GDP per capita seen through history.
  3. The development of capitalism involved utilizing surplus population in profitable activities, leading to economic conditions for industrial revolution and modern Western-centric world.

Why Progress Seems Stalled

4 HN points • 12 Jul 24
💼 Business Innovation Economy Corporations Investment Culture
  1. Faith in progress has declined due to recent advancements not meeting expectations, leading to public pessimism about the future.
  2. In the past, innovation created new categories of demand, opening up new economic sectors and creating jobs.
  3. Shareholder primacy business culture since 2000 has shifted focus from real productivity-enhancing investments to financial returns, hindering true progress.

Why are mass shootings becoming more common?

39 implied HN points • 19 Sep 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Second Amendment Mass Shootings
  1. The rise in mass shootings may be linked to changes in gun laws and the interpretation of the Second Amendment, creating an environment that could fuel mass shooters.
  2. There has been a shift in social instability in America, with mass shootings becoming more frequent and deadly compared to riots. Mass shootings are now the most common form of violent protest.
  3. The ease of becoming a mass shooter has increased, evident from cases where gunmen with firearms cause casualties before being stopped, in contrast to past restrictions on public firearm carrying.

My Political Beliefs

39 implied HN points • 28 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Beliefs Human nature Moral Values
  1. Humans have a unique ability to accumulate cultural knowledge which sets them apart from animals evolving biologically for survival.
  2. Personal background and experience shape moral values, influencing views on contentious issues like abortion and societal responsibilities.
  3. Advocacy for stakeholder capitalism over shareholder primacy, driven by a belief in social responsibility and a preference for economic systems that benefit the common good.

Why the postwar prosperity was not atypical

19 implied HN points • 03 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Labor Market Taxation Income Inequality Cultural Evolution
  1. Real wages for working class people grew slower after the 1970s due to economic policies, like tax cuts, since the Reagan administration.
  2. The post-war US economic success wasn't solely due to lack of foreign competition; trade only increased after mid-1960s tariff reductions.
  3. Shift away from high-productivity manufacturing jobs doesn't explain wage stagnation; the decrease in share of income going to working class started around 1980.

Looking at the stock market in terms of money flows

59 implied HN points • 14 Feb 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Technical Analysis
  1. In the stock market, changes in market cap can be disproportionate to the actual money traded, leading to wealth creation or destruction.
  2. Over time, market changes can cancel each other out, and short-term price fluctuations in a single stock might not reflect actual money flows.
  3. Using money flow analysis can provide insights into stock market valuation and understanding trends over longer periods, accounting for factors like stock buybacks and QE.

The Capitalist Crisis

59 implied HN points • 31 Jan 23
💰 Finance Economy Inequality Financialization Stock Market Economic Policy
  1. The capitalist crisis is linked to a drop in capital productivity, which can indicate an unhealthy capitalist system due to factors like inequality affecting demand and economic output.
  2. High levels of inequality can lead to a shortage of demand, causing a decline in capital productivity and contributing to a capitalist crisis.
  3. Financialization of the economy and the shift from stakeholder capitalism to shareholder primacy culture can impact business investment decisions, distribution of profits, and even wage disparities in the financial sector.

How cultural evolution works

39 implied HN points • 09 May 23
🎭️ Culture Evolution Capitalism Cultural transmission
  1. Cultural evolution is faster than biological evolution and is driven by innovation, competition, and replication.
  2. Cultural transmission involves biases like direct bias, indirect bias, and prestige bias that influence the spread of cultural information.
  3. Capitalism emerged from a cultural evolution driven by the accumulation of capital, prestige, and cultural transmission, leading to economic growth and societal changes.