The hottest Economics Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Business Topics

🎭✨ Ben Affleck’s wise words on AI

Faster, Please! • 731 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. New technology, like AI, can help reduce costs. This can make it easier for more people to access entertainment and creative content.
  2. There's a common fear that robots will take over jobs, but it's important to understand how technology can create new opportunities instead.
  3. Adapting to new technologies can lead to a demand for different skills. Learning and evolving with technology is key to staying relevant in the job market.

Should We Care About Replication?

Economic Forces • 6 implied HN points • 19 Feb 26
🔬 Science Economics
  1. Replication matters because it helps catch fraud and honest mistakes, but it doesn't have to be literal — redoing analyses with different data, larger samples, or better measures can serve the same purpose.
  2. A fall in published comments doesn't mean debate stopped; many critiques now happen in peer review and long appendices, and academic hierarchies and publication norms also shape what gets publicly challenged.
  3. Frontier empirical work is noisy and many surprising results won't generalize, so basic price theory and simple models are essential for asking better questions, judging results, and prioritizing what to replicate.

Russia's Suicide

Diane Francis • 1518 implied HN points • 04 Aug 22
🌍 World Politics Economics
  1. Putin underestimated Europe's ability to find new energy sources after his invasion of Ukraine. He thought Europe would rely on Russia, but they quickly adapted and diversified their energy supply.
  2. Russia's economic future looks bleak as it can't easily replace the European market for its oil and gas. Without strong customers, the country faces economic isolation and declines.
  3. Putin's strategies have alienated Europe and lost trust globally. His flawed plans only strengthened NATO and made the world more united against his aggressive actions.

Visualize Protectionist Luxembourg

Bet On It • 241 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Luxembourg's economy relies heavily on international trade. A big part of what it buys and sells comes from other countries, which is very important for its success.
  2. If Luxembourg raised its tariffs significantly, residents would face high prices and a worse quality of life because they depend on imports for most goods.
  3. Luxembourg serves as a great example showing that trade is not a threat but an opportunity. The country demonstrates the importance of both imports and exports in keeping the economy strong.
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Bonds are the Ultimate Shitcoin

The Dollar Endgame • 399 implied HN points • 17 Oct 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Bonds are facing significant challenges with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and inflation, causing a major downturn in the bond market.
  2. Bonds are crucial in the financial system and act as a form of money, affecting various sectors like banking and exposing risks in durations and interest rate movements.
  3. The bond market's current struggles are indicative of larger economic issues, with potential consequences for inflation, debt, and decisions by the Federal Reserve.

Hostility to Money

David Friedman’s Substack • 224 implied HN points • 08 Jul 25
🎭️ Culture Economics
  1. People often prefer non-monetary forms of payment in social situations, like inviting someone to dinner instead of giving them cash. This shows a belief that relationships should feel personal, not transactional.
  2. Adoption and surrogacy reveal the oddity of payment norms. While it's acceptable to pay for services related to these processes, directly paying a mother for consent is often seen as wrong.
  3. Money can change how we view relationships. When money is involved, it can make things feel unequal, as if one person is superior to the other, which is why some avoid payments in certain social interactions.

Superhuman AI would bring the permanent problem front and center

The Permanent Problem • 7 implied HN points • 18 Feb 26
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. Rapid advances toward superhuman AI could create enormous wealth while also accelerating the marginalization of ordinary workers, bringing the existing crisis of inclusion into sharp focus.
  2. The deepest fear is not just job loss but being rendered irrelevant and losing the social status and meaning tied to cognitive work, which could spark serious political and social unrest.
  3. If society plans well, AI could free people to pursue more fulfilling lives—caring for others, exploring, and creating—but that will require new social arrangements and a shift toward valuing intrinsic purpose and human relationships.

A Tale of Three Housing Bubbles

Taipology • 185 implied HN points • 21 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Japan's housing bubble in the 1980s showed how quickly prices can soar, but when it burst, the country faced decades of economic struggles. The banks kept rolling over bad debts, making it hard for healthy businesses to get loans.
  2. In the United States, the housing bubble led to a crisis, but aggressive monetary policies helped stabilize the economy. This also created long-term debt issues, as easy money became a habit, allowing reckless spending.
  3. China is trying to manage its housing bubble differently by avoiding bailouts and redirecting credit to productive industries. While many feel the current pain, this proactive approach aims to prevent a financial crisis like those seen in Japan and the U.S.

Chartbook 257: Santa's workshop economy and the question of unfree elvish labour.

Chartbook • 1716 implied HN points • 24 Dec 23
🎭️ Culture Economics
  1. The economics of Santa's workshop involves serious questions about sovereignty over the North Pole.
  2. There is debate about whether elvish labor in Santa's workshop can be considered as unfree or 'slave' labor.
  3. Reindeer play a crucial role in Santa's workshop economy, with an interesting fact being that all of Santa's reindeer with antlers are female.

Chartbook 339 Uneven and combined development of what? How do we relate global dollars and global cocoa?

Chartbook • 600 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Global dollars and cocoa are connected within the system of capitalism, but they operate under very different political economies. Money is managed through global financial institutions, while cocoa production involves many poor farmers and large corporations.
  2. The relationship between cocoa and global dollars can be explored through the idea of 'sectors' in the economy, like the agro-industrial sector for cocoa and the financial sector for dollars. Each sector functions under its own rules and crises.
  3. Understanding how these sectors combine and differ helps to illustrate the complex dynamics of global capitalism. It’s important to consider how different sectors impact each other and society as a whole.

Lessons on birth rates: Japan and South Korea

Faster, Please! • 456 implied HN points • 27 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. South Korea's birth rate has slightly increased, from 0.72 to 0.75. This small rise gives some hope to policymakers about slowing the country's declining population.
  2. Japan faces a significant demographic challenge with low birth rates, which impacts its economy and society. This situation highlights the importance of addressing demographic decline.
  3. Both countries show that while it’s tough, there can be small improvements in birth rates. Understanding what works in one country may help others tackle similar issues.

Top Links 645 Trump's assault on the North American division of labour continued. How the eurdollar system works. North Korea's aerial trash bombardment & FDR on the Arsenal of Democracy.

Chartbook • 472 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Trump is pushing for tariffs on aluminium and steel imports, which could affect the US economy. It's important to know that the US relies a lot on imported aluminium.
  2. The eurdollar system is explained, which is key for understanding international finance. It plays a significant role in global trade and economics.
  3. North Korea is using aerial trash bombardment as a tactic, highlighting serious issues of conflict. This kind of action reflects the ongoing tensions in the region.

Purpose Disruptors needs disrupting

Thoughts on Writing • 319 implied HN points • 22 Nov 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. The ad industry and climate movement should aim for better collaborations and campaigns that actually make a positive impact.
  2. It's important to critically evaluate the claims and research behind advertising campaigns related to climate change to ensure credibility and effectiveness.
  3. Narratives around climate action in advertising should be aspirational, inclusive, and focus on tangible positive changes rather than guilt or deprivation.

Americans' Incomes Are Rising Too Fast for 2% Inflation

The Overshoot • 393 implied HN points • 25 Feb 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Americans' incomes have been rising rapidly, with a 10% increase in disposable income since last summer.
  2. This rise in income is leading to concerns about potential inflation, as increased spending may outpace production.
  3. The surge in employment income is a key factor in driving consumer spending and could impact inflation rates.

Top Links 635 The rebalancing of global industrial production. A hog-cycle in containers. Czech reserves & Korean coups (in 1979)

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Global industrial production is shifting. This means how and where things are made around the world is changing.
  2. There is a trend called a 'hog-cycle' in container shipping. This affects how goods are transported and the availability of containers.
  3. Historical events, like the Czech reserves and Korean coups in 1979, can help us understand current global shifts and economic patterns.

L.E. Memo | The End of Thrift

Lewis Enterprises • 393 implied HN points • 07 May 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Public markets offer an egalitarian opportunity for individuals to invest in top companies.
  2. Private capital is dominating the economy post-2000, offering advantages like less governance and disclosure.
  3. The growth of private equity has led to a decline in public market assets, impacting savers and increasing challenges for individual investors.

Celebrating the great life

System Change • 393 implied HN points • 27 Apr 23
🎭️ Culture Economics
  1. Professor Victoria Chick was a leading economist who fought against mainstream economic orthodoxy.
  2. She emphasized the importance of Keynes's monetary theory and policies in her academic work.
  3. Her legacy continues to inspire and inform future generations in the field of economics.

Markets Do the Good Things That Sound Bad

Bet On It • 246 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Markets often get criticized for being cost-conscious and risk-aware, but these qualities can actually lead to better outcomes for society. It's important to remember that ignoring costs can create bad decisions.
  2. People think businesses focusing on profits are bad, but profit-seeking can sometimes lead to positive results. It's about balancing risks for larger gains rather than taking reckless risks.
  3. Many popular arguments against markets don't see the bigger picture. When looking at overall success and safety, richer countries with fewer regulations often fare better than poorer, heavily regulated ones.

Geoengineering Now!

Maximum Progress • 334 implied HN points • 08 Nov 23
🔬 Science Economics
  1. Solar geoengineering can offset temperature rise relatively inexpensively.
  2. Geoengineering could help delay and mitigate damages of climate change.
  3. Arguments against geoengineering include concerns about unintended effects and moral hazard.

LECTURE: Roots of How Ownership & Trade Have Made Us Truly Weird: "Property" & "Exchange" as a Coördination Mechanism at Societal Scale

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 192 implied HN points • 13 Jul 25
📖 Philosophy Economics
  1. The idea of ownership is really strange. We believe we can own things even when we're not present, which is a unique concept for humans.
  2. Trade and exchange are important for how societies work. They help people specialize in tasks and improve efficiency, leading to greater productivity.
  3. Markets and property rights help coordinate action in society. They distribute resources but don't guarantee fairness, so the rules around them shape who benefits and how much.

Markets as Error Correction Processes

Knowledge Problem • 196 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Markets are error correction processes that help us adapt to changing conditions and create value.
  2. Individual adjustments in response to price signals lead to error correction in markets.
  3. Through adaptation, decentralized coordination, knowledge ecosystems, and error correction, markets enable us to achieve more and flourish compared to other social institutional frameworks.

Starting a trade war as the global reserve currency

Deep Pulusani - Risk • 333 implied HN points • 16 Apr 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Having a reserve currency gives a country special advantages, like easier borrowing and more power in international trade. This can make things cheaper for its citizens and boost their purchasing power.
  2. However, relying too much on being the reserve currency can hurt domestic industries, leading to job losses and higher inequality. This often pushes the country to adopt protectionist policies to revive local production.
  3. Countries that want to move away from the reserve currency face risks like financial instability. It's hard to balance the benefits of being a reserve nation while fixing domestic economic problems.

What Happened to You?

Remarkable People • 4 HN points • 11 Sep 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Innovation was originally about making the world better, not just making money. It’s important to create things that have a positive impact on people's lives.
  2. The focus has shifted from creating meaningful products to purely making profits. This change can lead to losing the original vision behind a project or business.
  3. Entrepreneurs today should aim for a balance between doing well financially and doing good for society. There are examples like Salesforce that show you can be successful while also helping others.

The Value of Foreign Diplomas

Cremieux Recueil • 483 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. People often assume that a degree from a prestigious school means a candidate is more qualified, but the same should apply to comparing U.S. natives with immigrants. Many immigrants may not have the same skills or education levels as U.S. natives who have degrees.
  2. Research shows that immigrants with foreign degrees often perform worse than U.S. natives with degrees in tests of literacy, numeracy, and problem-solving. This suggests a gap in skills that may not be recognized.
  3. Reforming immigration by focusing on skill-based assessments rather than just degrees could lead to better outcomes for the U.S. It would allow for hiring more skilled immigrants while still benefiting the native population.

Top Links 653 How US asset managers are muscling into Europe. Japan restarts its reactors. Who buys guns? Mexico's energy revolution.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. US asset managers are starting to play a bigger role in Europe, which could change the market dynamics there.
  2. Japan is bringing its nuclear reactors back online, impacting energy policies and production.
  3. There's a growing discussion about who is buying guns, which raises questions about safety and regulations.

New Home Sales at 737,000 Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
💼 Business Economics
  1. New single-family home sales ran at a 737,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in October, essentially unchanged from September and about 18.7% higher than a year earlier.
  2. Supply is elevated: months of supply stayed at 7.9 months (above the normal 4–6 month range), with completed homes, units under construction, and 'not started' inventories all high and 'not started' at an all-time high.
  3. The median new home price is roughly 15% below its peak, mainly because the mix of homes sold shifted toward lower-priced units.

Gymshark part 2: co-founder exits, billionaire tax planning, securing the bag, and cash crunches

Net Income • 373 implied HN points • 13 Jul 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Co-founder disagreements in growing businesses are common and it might be necessary to part ways if visions differ.
  2. Smart tax planning strategies can help wealthy individuals protect assets and leave a financial legacy for future generations.
  3. Managing cash flow in a rapidly growing business, especially with inventory-based models, is crucial for long-term success.

STIR Crazy

Pinecone Weekly Brief • 216 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Last week's cut pricing madness is an opportunity
  2. Check out Chase Taylor's post on pineconemacroresearch
  3. Subscribe to Pinecone Weekly Brief for a 7-day free trial

⤴↗📈 Has the Great Upshift arrived?

Faster, Please! • 1462 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. US productivity growth has been on the rise, showing positive signs
  2. The current productivity upturn could be sustained and lead to significant economic benefits
  3. Advances in artificial intelligence and strong productivity numbers are contributing to potential long-term economic dynamism

Migration, Housing, and Beyond

Bet On It • 155 implied HN points • 07 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Combining strict housing rules with high immigration leads to higher housing prices. Instead of seeing this as a problem, it should be viewed as a chance to build more housing.
  2. High demand for housing, whether from immigrants or tourists, is a good thing. It creates opportunities for everyone involved, benefiting both new arrivals and local residents.
  3. There are many positive effects of building more housing, such as increased job opportunities and social interactions. These benefits often outweigh any negative impacts.

Top Links 608 American exceptionalism. An Orwellian turn in Chinese economic commentary & can we save Hawker Centers and Axolotl from progress?

Chartbook • 500 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. American exceptionalism refers to the belief that the United States has a unique role in the world. It's important to think about why this idea persists and what it means.
  2. Chinese economic commentary has taken a turn towards being more controlled and less transparent. This shift can impact how we understand China's economy and its global role.
  3. Hawker centers and the axolotl are examples of cultural and biological entities at risk from modernization. It's crucial to find ways to preserve these unique aspects of our world.

What’s Deadweight Loss?

Something to Consider • 19 implied HN points • 31 Jul 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Deadweight loss happens when goods that could have been produced and sold efficiently are not. It means losing out on potential benefits to both sellers and buyers.
  2. This loss can occur in situations like monopolies where one seller controls the market and prices goods higher than in a competitive market.
  3. Taxes can also create deadweight loss by making some products too expensive to produce, which leads to fewer goods being available for consumers.

What if bigger models, like bigger stars, fail faster?

Breaking Smart • 34 implied HN points • 07 Dec 25
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. Larger AI models can become less reliable over time because they learn from static data that quickly becomes outdated. This means models can fail faster as they can't adapt to changes in the world.
  2. The current push for bigger models might not be sustainable if they aren't supported by enough quality training data. If companies keep investing in these models without the right data, they may end up with expensive resources that don't deliver good results.
  3. To keep AI models useful for longer, we should focus on creating new types of data, like 4D video, which can help models learn from real-world changes rather than just past cultural snapshots.

Endgame #1

The Dollar Endgame • 359 implied HN points • 26 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Argentina is facing a severe economic crisis with massive currency devaluation and high inflation, but there is hope for stabilization with proposed governmental changes and monetary reforms.
  2. China's property market is experiencing significant challenges, with key real estate firms facing default, worker payment issues, and the country slipping into deflation, raising concerns for a possible global recession.
  3. The BRICS alliance, particularly China and Russia, is strategizing to lessen dollar dominance by expanding membership and discussing possible alternatives, like involving major oil exporters and establishing a new reserve currency, amidst complexities and challenges in implementing such changes.

Bitcoin Tech Talk #378

jimmysong • 216 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
🔮 Crypto Economics
  1. Jordan Bush explains the deeper meaning of rendering onto Caesar in the Bible, shedding light on the issue of taxes and statism in the church.
  2. The story of a successful mathlete from Stanford reveals the costs of engaging in a fiat system and the debt that comes with it.
  3. Scott's reflections on having children, particularly twins, offer insights on parenthood and the impacts of a fiat mentality on framing life experiences.