The hottest Public Policy Substack posts right now

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‘Listen to the Science’: A 75-Year-Old Warning About the Phrase

The Take (by Jon Miltimore) • 138 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. When people say 'listen to the science,' they often mean 'listen to our plans.' Science can inform us, but it doesn't dictate what we should do.
  2. The economist Ludwig von Mises pointed out that science can't tell us what actions to take; it can only explain what is happening.
  3. Many debates around issues like climate change and COVID-19 are less about science and more about ethical choices, showing that not every problem has a simple scientific solution.

THE SHOW NOTES: Stenographers Revolt, Kamala's Employment Data Problem, & What Is Happening at CNN?

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 879 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Job growth in the U.S. has slowed down a lot, with only 12,000 new jobs added in October. This is a big drop from what experts expected, which could hurt the Harris campaign's message about the economy.
  2. The White House changed a transcript to remove comments made by President Biden that insulted Trump supporters. This has caused a disagreement with the federal stenographers' office over transcript accuracy.
  3. CNN faced backlash for allowing a guest to mock JD Vance's family struggles during a discussion. This was seen as disrespectful, given the serious background of addiction in his family.

VINDICATED! (sadly). The govt can no longer hide the decline in jobs

COVID Reason • 812 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Job losses in the private sector are alarming, with 28,000 jobs lost, especially in manufacturing and retail. This shows a real problem in the economy.
  2. Government jobs increased by 40,000, which may cover up serious issues in other job sectors. This is a sign the economy isn't as strong as it looks.
  3. The labor force is shrinking, with many not participating anymore and unemployment rising. This trend is not sustainable and needs urgent attention.

Support Your Local Collaborator

Astral Codex Ten • 30421 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Trusted cross‑ideological collaborators who can credibly influence a hostile government are rare and often the only ones who can stop truly harmful policies, so avoid publicly shaming or driving them away.
  2. Policy writing and advocacy meant to reach officials will sometimes need pragmatic, respectful framing rather than denunciations; demanding public condemnations or purity signals can destroy practical influence.
  3. Keep ideological minorities inside movements instead of purging them, because they provide access and can win real improvements, and respect individuals’ ethical choices to engage rather than socially pressuring them to quit.

SEIU Delenda Est

Astral Codex Ten • 41984 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. SEIU repeatedly uses ballot initiatives as leverage, proposing attractive-sounding measures designed to wreck targeted industries and then demanding money or union access in exchange for withdrawing them.
  2. The proposed California Billionaire Tax is poorly written—taxing unrealized gains, valuing stakes by voting rights, and applying retroactively—and could drive billionaires and tech founders out of the state, possibly reducing revenue and harming Silicon Valley.
  3. The ballot proposition system creates a perverse incentive for interest groups to design destructive but popular measures as bargaining chips, effectively turning direct democracy into a tool for political extortion.
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America and Public Disorder

Chris Arnade Walks the World • 17162 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
🎭️ Culture Public Policy
  1. Public spaces across the U.S. are increasingly filled with visible mental illness, addiction, and antisocial behavior, making streets and transit feel dirty, unsafe, and chaotic.
  2. That disorder prevents the kind of dense, vibrant public life seen elsewhere, so cities build austere, ‘asshole‑proof’ infrastructure and people retreat to isolated suburbs.
  3. The humane and practical solution proposed is mandatory treatment and stricter enforcement for the severely ill or addicted, redirecting existing resources into involuntary care, detox, and secure programs to protect both individuals and the public.

February 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 147 implied HN points • 24 Mar 26
💰 Finance Public Policy
  1. Inflation excluding rent has tracked very closely to a 2% trend for nearly four years.
  2. Rent inflation is starting to moderate, and if building more new homes remains legal it should continue easing, which would reduce pressure on the Fed.
  3. Past housing supply constraints pushed policy toward being too tight, and continued rent moderation could flip that bias toward being too loose; a congressional ban on new single-family rentals would be far more damaging to housing supply.

Why America's extremes will both fail

Noahpinion • 34882 implied HN points • 07 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Modern politics is dominated by highly engaged online extremists while moderates withdraw, and unelected, internet‑savvy staffers and activists push parties toward more extreme positions.
  2. The MAGA movement keeps shrinking its potential coalition by attacking or alienating minority and immigrant groups, which makes it unsustainable for winning broad majorities.
  3. Progressive extremism often erodes the liberal institutions it relies on. Soft‑on‑crime policies and governance failures make public services and cities less functional, undermining long‑term support.

Where does a liberal go from here?

Noahpinion • 95001 implied HN points • 04 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Liberal ideals like freedom, equality, economic security, tolerance, and democratic inclusion have produced real, lasting gains and are still worth defending.
  2. Recent progressive overreach in culture, governance, and policy eroded public trust and helped fuel a conservative backlash.
  3. The way forward is to try again: learn from mistakes, recommit to practical, principle-driven liberalism, and rebuild steadily instead of abandoning the project.

Record Low Crime Rates Are Real, Not Just Reporting Bias Or Improved Medical Care

Astral Codex Ten • 25534 implied HN points • 18 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. U.S. violent and property crime rates are at or near historic lows, with the murder rate possibly the lowest in 250 years and many crimes at multi-decade lows.
  2. The decline looks real rather than just underreporting, because independent victim surveys, consistently reported crimes like car theft, and murder counts all show similar downward trends.
  3. Improved medical care doesn’t explain the drop in murders—lethality per violent incident has stayed stable or injuries have grown worse—and researchers offer multiple plausible explanations (technology, policing, demographics, lead decline, etc.) without a single agreed cause.

Paul Ehrlich Was Wrong—but He Still Changed the World

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 746 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
🎭️ Culture Public Policy
  1. Paul Ehrlich predicted mass starvation and collapsing life expectancy that never happened; instead global population and life expectancy rose.
  2. He promoted extreme measures like forced sterilization to curb population growth and remained convinced of his views until his death.
  3. Despite being wrong about the outcomes, his alarmist arguments helped spark and shape the modern environmental movement and public policy, leaving a lasting impact.

Public Choice Links, 3/10/2026

In My Tribe • 288 implied HN points • 10 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Governments and regulators often perform poorly at both delivering services and directing others, because they lack the local knowledge and incentives needed to design effective policies.
  2. Making buses free or heavily subsidized can raise overall welfare by shifting people out of cars and reducing congestion, though congestion pricing or higher taxes on drivers can be an equally efficient way to address those externalities.
  3. Erosion of constitutional norms and more arbitrary policymaking make government control less predictable, creating space for powerful interest groups, including large public-sector unions, to capture policy outcomes.

✨🍼 Artificial intelligence faces a fertility test

Faster, Please! • 1096 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26
🕹 Technology Public Policy
  1. Collective optimism drives fertility. When people feel the future is brighter, birth rates tend to rise, and that optimism can spread across countries through social connections.
  2. AI can push fertility either way. If AI clearly raises prosperity and security it may encourage more births, but if it fuels job fear and uncertainty it can depress fertility even before incomes change.
  3. Policy should focus on confidence, not just cash. Beyond subsidies and childcare, stable jobs, housing, safety nets, and credible public communication that reduce uncertainty are key to restoring people’s willingness to make long-term bets like having children.

Roundup #77: The Fix-Everything Button

Noahpinion • 16294 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
💼 Business Public Policy
  1. Targeted fixes like fare gates can quickly and cheaply restore order in public spaces, cutting crime and cleanup costs so transit becomes usable again for most riders.
  2. The claim that AI is already displacing young college graduates is unclear; differences between unemployment and employment measures and sensitivity to broader economic swings make the evidence ambiguous right now.
  3. Trade and policy changes are reshaping supply chains: tariffs have reduced bilateral dependence on China without reviving U.S. manufacturing, and tighter skilled-visa rules are pushing companies to hire and expand operations abroad.

Zero-sum economics keeps failing

Noahpinion • 37530 implied HN points • 18 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. The economy isn’t a fixed lump of resources to be simply divided; growing the pie matters more than slicing it.
  2. Policies based on zero-sum thinking—like mass deportations, protectionist tariffs, or seizing resources—often fail to deliver the promised jobs or wealth and can hurt domestic workers and industries.
  3. Sustained prosperity comes from production, innovation, and turning resources into useful goods and services, while redistribution or seizure without creating value can make places poorer.

Let's save the human species!

Noahpinion • 30176 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Public Policy
  1. Fertility rates are collapsing across many countries, creating shrinking and rapidly aging populations that threaten economic productivity, public finances, and the upkeep of infrastructure.
  2. Common reassurances—higher productivity, automation, immigration, or baby‑bonus payments—are uncertain or insufficient and won’t reliably reverse the trend without huge cost or social disruption.
  3. We urgently need a large, well‑funded research effort (observational studies, RCTs, technological and public‑health trials) supported by governments and major donors to find practical, scalable ways to stabilize fertility near replacement.

The Greatest Tension Within 21st Century Progressivism Remains Unresolved

Freddie deBoer • 12066 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Many progressives oppose police power and mass incarceration in general, but also demand tougher prosecutions and punishments in high-profile sexual violence and discrimination cases.
  2. Pushing for harsher criminal responses in those specific cases tends to expand prosecutorial and sentencing power and predictably increases racial disparities and overpunishment for marginalized people.
  3. The left rarely confronts this contradiction openly, and must choose whether to build non-carceral supports and protect due process or to accept expanding the carceral state with its attendant harms.

Want To See What a Blue State Looks Like

Points And Figures • 612 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Illinois is used as an example of a deeply blue state where Democrats dominate elections, leading to left-leaning officials, higher taxes, and people moving away.
  2. To avoid a similar outcome, Republicans and conservatives are urged to fund and back viable candidates in purple states like Nevada and, above all, turn out to vote.
  3. A candidate stresses decades of financial experience and is seeking donations and national backing to win the Nevada state treasurer race and counter heavy Democratic spending.

How Generative AI is destroying society

Marcus on AI • 27191 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
🕹 Technology Public Policy
  1. Current generative and predictive AI systems tend to hollow out and degrade civic institutions like government, courts, education, healthcare, and journalism.
  2. Because these systems are opaque and optimized for efficiency rather than openness, they undermine cooperation, transparency, accountability, and adaptability, which makes institutions ossify and lose legitimacy.
  3. Even without bad actors, widespread deployment of these AI designs will progressively enfeeble institutions, so the danger is urgent and calls for immediate structural repair.

BREAKING: Crime Actually Did Go Up in 2022

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2218 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Crime went up in 2022, contrary to some reports. This means that the fears about rising crime were not unfounded.
  2. The FBI quietly changed its crime statistics without much public notice. This raises questions about how transparent they are with the data.
  3. Corrections to important data usually receive less attention than the original shocking stories. This could mislead people about the true situation.

Lessons From Michigan's DEI Failure

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1099 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. The University of Michigan spent a lot of money and time on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) efforts, but many people felt frustrated and saw it as a failure.
  2. Students from different backgrounds thought that the DEI programs were well-intentioned but didn't achieve their goals.
  3. Research suggests that people who are religious report being happier compared to those heavily focused on DEI principles.

Slightly Against The "Other People's Money" Argument Against Aid

Astral Codex Ten • 13145 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. The “other people’s money” critique misses key facts: voters also pay the taxes they support and supporters often hold most of the wealth, so backing foreign aid isn’t just a way to avoid personal sacrifice.
  2. Psychological and coordination issues better explain why people vote for aid but don’t donate: virtue signaling, the desire for clean ‘problem solved’ stories, assurance-contract transaction costs, and time-inconsistent preferences push people toward collective solutions.
  3. Government can legitimately reduce coordination and self-control problems, but that creates fairness questions; one practical compromise is default funding with a clear opt-out on tax forms so long-term preferences are honored without coercing everyone.

Part 3: Who can suffer the most “for the greater good.”

COVID Reason • 614 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. People have started to believe that their safety relies on how strictly they isolate themselves, sometimes even turning against one another for not following the rules.
  2. Many individuals are competing to show how much they can sacrifice for others, feeling proud of their suffering for the supposed 'greater good.'
  3. There are some who are questioning the restrictions and looking for balance in life, but they are often faced with pressure to conform and are labeled as selfish.

Thoughts on Elite Versus Populist Libertarianism

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 4998 implied HN points • 16 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Libertarianism splits into two tribes: elite libertarians who are idea-driven, socially liberal, and pro-democracy, and populist libertarians who seek mass support through culture-war, conspiratorial, and sometimes authoritarian tactics.
  2. Many people wear libertarianism as a form of vice signaling rather than from a sober understanding of economics, which lets grifters, conspiracy theorists, and hardline cultural agitators dominate the movement.
  3. Being part of the conservative coalition once helped libertarians advance pro-market policies, but the recent populist takeover has broken that bargain, so lasting success now requires persuading intellectual elites and idea-focused audiences.

THE SHOW NOTES: Yahya Sinwar, The Interview, & Canceling Student Loans

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 839 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader, may have been killed in an Israeli military operation, but this hasn't been officially confirmed yet.
  2. Kamala Harris's recent interview didn't resonate with Republican voters, as she struggled to connect and was late to the taping.
  3. The Biden administration has canceled an additional $4.5 billion in student loan debt, continuing their efforts to ease the financial burden on borrowers.

Ireland's ONE WEIRD TRICK To End Colonization & Win Every Political Campaign

JoeWrote • 318 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Successful politics focuses on everyday material needs like wages, housing, and healthcare, not just lofty ideas. People support movements that make their lives better now.
  2. Campaigns should offer clear, specific policies that voters can imagine improving their daily lives. Concrete promises (rent relief, childcare, healthcare) win more support than abstract rhetoric.
  3. Long-term goals like social change or national unity depend on steady organizing around workers' material interests. Symbolic appeals alone don’t sustain popular support.

No, buses should not be "free"

Machine Learning Everything • 1379 implied HN points • 19 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Fares are more than revenue — they’re information that reveals demand and cost so transit agencies can decide where to add, trim, or change service.
  2. Making buses free changes behavior: zero price pulls in marginal riders who value trips less, which can crowd, slow, and degrade service for others.
  3. A small fare acts as a behavioral gate and preserves competition; instead of blanket free service, targeted subsidies, income‑based fares, and enforcement are better tools to help riders and keep the system functioning.

When Reality Hits You Over the Head

Life Since the Baby Boom • 1152 implied HN points • 27 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Experts who favor elegant theory over messy reality can be wrong when policies ignore actual outcomes, so evidence should steer decisions.
  2. Legalizing and taxing drugs does not automatically eliminate black markets or crime, because tax incentives, regulatory burdens, and cross‑jurisdictional demand keep illegal supply alive.
  3. Basing budgets and policy on optimistic models or drug tax revenue can backfire, since oversupply and falling prices can collapse revenues and undermine promised services.

Judicial Notice (10.20.24): Blast Off

Original Jurisdiction • 399 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Mike Davis is gaining attention as a key figure in the Republican party, especially concerning Trump's potential future judicial nominations. He emphasizes the need for bolder and more conservative nominees.
  2. Judge Frederic Block recently granted compassionate release to a man who had been serving multiple life sentences since 1997. This decision came after a reconsideration of the harshness of the original sentence and the defendant's rehabilitation.
  3. A recent ruling upheld a curfew implemented during the protests following a controversial police shooting. The court decided the curfew was valid as it aimed to protect public safety while respecting First Amendment rights.

The Markets' AI Guessing Game, Moltbook Explained, AI-Induced Layoffs?

Big Technology • 3377 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
🕹 Technology Public Policy
  1. The market doesn’t know who will win the AI race, so small earnings details or capex moves spark huge stock swings and sustained volatility.
  2. Moltbook shows what an agent-driven social layer could look like, but most posts aren’t truly autonomous and the platform raises real moderation, impersonation, and security worries.
  3. Layoffs branded as ‘AI-induced’ often reflect firms acting on AI’s anticipated future impact rather than current performance, so AI is a factor but not always the direct cause.

Privatizing the Airwaves

David Friedman’s Substack • 188 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Print media thrive on private ownership, so anyone willing to pay can publish niche or offensive views, while broadcasters self-censor because they rely on government-owned airwaves and licenses.
  2. Because the airwaves are scarce public property, regulators must ration access and enforce a vague "public interest" standard, which pushes broadcasters to avoid controversial content.
  3. Turning frequencies into private property through auctions would let owners decide what to air, likely increasing diversity and allowing more controversial or niche speech on the airwaves.

The One Ring

Disaffected Newsletter • 699 implied HN points • 23 Sep 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. There was a discussion about a disturbing summer camp related to child abuse that was almost near a school. The focus was on the serious implications of this situation.
  2. The media and political figures are reacting strongly, blaming Donald Trump for the violence he's faced, which raises questions about accountability.
  3. The conversation highlighted perceived social biases, specifically how racism is directed towards white people in today's society.

Sporting Clays With Keystone

Points And Figures • 426 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. The state treasurer’s office should be depoliticized and run by skilled professionals who prioritize investment returns and fiduciary duty instead of political virtue signaling about industries like guns.
  2. A Keystone sporting clays shoot showed that shooting can be fun but challenging in windy conditions, prompted thoughts of switching to a semi-automatic, and reflected a family tradition of hunting and careful gun handling.
  3. We should be cautious about restricting the right to bear arms while also making gun safety, maintenance, and proper storage central to responsible ownership.

Universal Primary Care: The Antidote to Health Reform Paralysis?

HEALTH CARE un-covered • 559 implied HN points • 24 Sep 24
🏥 Health Politics Public Policy
  1. Universal primary care is important because everyone needs it, even healthy people. It helps with routine illnesses and preventive care.
  2. Primary care is cost-effective, making up a small part of total healthcare spending but providing great health benefits. Investing in primary care can save money in the long run.
  3. Starting with universal primary care could be a smart first step toward broader healthcare reform. It might gain more political support and lead to better health outcomes for everyone.

So You Want to Learn Geoengineering?

Popular Rationalism • 1069 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Public Policy
  1. Geoengineering is a real science aimed at fighting climate change. It includes methods like cloud seeding and solar reflection, but it needs full public transparency since it could affect everyone.
  2. There’s a long history of weather manipulation efforts, like Project Cirrus and Project Stormfury. Many of these projects had mixed results, leading to both discoveries and unexpected consequences.
  3. Public engagement is key for geoengineering to be used responsibly. People need to stay informed and participate in discussions about these technologies to ensure decisions are made ethically and transparently.

Speed Trap

Cloud Irregular • 1330 implied HN points • 19 Feb 26
🕹 Technology Public Policy
  1. Self-driving cars cut down on human speeding, which can wreck towns that rely on traffic fines for most of their income.
  2. Attempts to block or confuse autonomous vehicles usually fail as the tech and laws adapt, so towns have to scramble to find other ways to fund themselves.
  3. Passengers often don’t know how fast an autonomous car was going, and that uncertainty can be used by police or municipalities to keep generating enforcement revenue.

It's time to abolish Natural England

Odds and Ends of History • 1675 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
🌞 Climate & Environment Public Policy
  1. Politicians often pass politically risky decisions to arm's-length bodies to avoid blame, but that can prevent the government from actually delivering its strategy.
  2. Natural England’s statutory role in planning acts like a de facto veto—through SSSIs, nutrient rules and SANG requirements—causing delays and blocking housing projects even when the environmental case is weak.
  3. Abolishing or substantially reforming Natural England would put environmental trade-offs back with elected ministers so politicians must own the consequences, while keeping technical enforcement and data roles separate.

Stop Subsidizing Rural America

American Dreaming • 1557 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Rural America has been heavily subsidized for generations through programs like electrification, New Deal projects, Medicaid expansion, and broadband, yet those investments have not reversed its economic decline or political drift to the right.
  2. Many rural communities now face entrenched problems—low education, drug addiction and overdose, declining labor participation, housing stress, failing hospitals, and population loss—that are as much cultural and institutional as they are economic.
  3. The argument is that Democrats should stop trying to rescue rural voters with continuous subsidies and instead let those communities bear the consequences of their political choices while reallocating resources to places more likely to support progressive policies.

Government for Dummies

News from Uncibal • 934 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Modern politicians often lack deep understanding and experience, leading to a government focused on following simple recipes instead of thoughtful decision-making.
  2. There's a difference between technical knowledge and practical knowledge; good governance requires wisdom that comes from real experience, not just following rules.
  3. If the electorate grows frustrated with inadequate leaders, they might take matters into their own hands, which could lead to serious political unrest.

Highlights From The Comments On Boomers

Astral Codex Ten • 9085 implied HN points • 06 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Policy
  1. Anti-Boomer anger actually bundles three different claims — that boomers had it easier, that the system favors them politically, and that they’re uniquely selfish — and those claims should be argued about separately.
  2. Housing and tax policy are a core fight: proposals like repealing protected property tax rules, higher taxes payable on death or sale, or simply building more homes can redistribute housing access, but forced moves would hurt elders with deep place attachments.
  3. A lot of the tension is structural — a large, long-lived boomer cohort stuck in institutions creates real redistribution and entitlement pressures — so the problem isn’t just moral blame but demographic and political power dynamics.