The hottest Investing Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

MMTLP: Valuing the non-cash distribution

Keubiko’s Musings • 452 implied HN points • 12 May 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Valuation of non-cash distributions can be complex and may not align with investor expectations.
  2. Understanding the underlying value of assets like NBH is crucial in evaluating stock worth.
  3. Tax implications can significantly impact the final returns for investors in non-cash distributions.

3 Fund Portfolio

Market Sentiment • 452 implied HN points • 19 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Successful investing comes down to diversification, low costs, and discipline.
  2. The 3-fund portfolio includes U.S. stocks, international stocks, and bonds to ensure balance and minimize risks.
  3. International diversification balances home country bias, while bonds provide stability during stock market downturns.
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25 Things I've Learned In 25

Spilled Coffee • 44 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. Prioritize time and relationships over possessions. Spend money to buy time, create experiences, and celebrate loved ones while you still can.
  2. Invest with discipline and block the noise: have a watchlist, cut losses quickly, let winners run, and favor low-cost indexing if you can’t consistently outperform. Avoid loud social media opinions and fear-driven decisions.
  3. Act now and enjoy life instead of waiting for perfect timing: call people, ask questions, help others, and build small surprises and rituals that create lasting joy.

Venture in Public Markets

Parth's Playground • 51 implied HN points • 25 Nov 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. Investing in both early-stage and mature public companies involves similar processes. Both require assessing key milestones, or 'card flips', that can significantly change a business's trajectory.
  2. There's a gap in funding for medium-term investments. Most capital is either short-term focused or tied up in long-term index funds, leaving opportunities for those willing to invest in companies making meaningful changes over 18 months to 4 years.
  3. Investing in public companies is different from private investments. It allows for more patient buying, but it also requires managing the temptation to react to market fluctuations constantly.

Lessons From Ed Thorp’s Interview With Tim Ferriss

moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids • 216 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Long-term investors should consider buying and holding equities, especially in the US, as they tend to outperform most other forms of investing.
  2. Minimize risks in investments to avoid significant losses that could take you out of the game altogether.
  3. Encourage independent thinking and questioning of information, rather than blindly following popular opinion, for better decision-making and personal growth.

Infographics: Shadow Cash Trades & Flows

Concoda • 189 implied HN points • 27 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The infographic shows how 'shadow cash' trades and flows are organized. This helps to understand hidden financial movements.
  2. Mapping these trades can reveal patterns similar to bonds, which is important for investors to know.
  3. Understanding shadow cash can help people make informed decisions about their investments and see the bigger picture in finance.

DeFi: In Simple Photos and How to Make Your First Transaction!

DeFi Education • 3636 implied HN points • 24 Jun 21
🔮 Crypto Investing
  1. Decentralized Finance (DeFi) offers better returns than traditional banking. You can earn more on your investments compared to the low interest rates from banks.
  2. Using decentralized exchanges allows you to trade assets directly with others, cutting out the middlemen like banks. This means you can have more control over your money.
  3. While there are great opportunities in DeFi, be careful as there are many scams. Always research projects and use established protocols to protect your investment.

Spotlight: Daniel Kleinmann, Daniel Wallman, and Phil Scully - Partners @ Balerion Space Ventures

Space Ambition • 359 implied HN points • 17 Nov 23
💼 Business Investing
  1. The space industry is quickly growing, with many new companies starting up. This offers a great chance for investment in exciting projects that can help us explore and use space.
  2. Investors like Balerion VC focus on specific areas within space tech, such as satellites and space tourism. They want a mix of investments to cover all important sectors of the space economy.
  3. For anyone looking to invest in space, building a strong network is key. It's important to make helpful connections and relationships in the space community.

What Is To Be Done? Investing Where It Matters.

Breaking the News • 654 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💼 Business Investing
  1. Investing in advanced technology manufacturing is gaining momentum in the US. This is a positive sign for the economy, showing growth and innovation.
  2. It's important to focus on what truly matters when making investments. This could mean supporting industries or ideas that have the potential to make a significant impact.
  3. Documenting progress and sharing stories of innovation can inspire others to get involved and contribute to meaningful change. It helps to keep the momentum going.

Cracking the consumer investing code: High-risk, high-reward 

Next Big Teng • 216 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
💼 Business Investing
  1. Consumer investing is high-risk, high-reward, with potential for astonishingly large upside.
  2. There has been a shift over the past decade with consumer companies now accounting for less unicorn club value.
  3. In consumer investing, the top companies dominate the market, making little room for error but offering potential for significant returns.

Just one word: Dividends

Lewis Enterprises • 353 implied HN points • 19 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Dividends are a natural outcome of business ownership and distinct from share repurchases.
  2. The shift towards buybacks over dividends may have a significant impact in the real economy.
  3. A new paradigm of higher interest rates will prioritize cash returns and challenge the reliance on buybacks for funding consumption.

Curve Exploited! DeFi in Danger from Bad Debt?

DeFi Education • 559 implied HN points • 31 Jul 23
🔮 Crypto Investing
  1. Curve's founder borrowed a large amount of money secured by a significant percentage of CRV tokens. This means a lot of the circulating tokens are tied up in loans.
  2. The recent exploits have raised concerns about the health of decentralized finance (DeFi). Many people worry about 'bad debt' affecting the entire system.
  3. The specific loan at Frax finance has reached a full utilization rate, indicating that all available credit is in use and shows the strain on this lending platform.

All Weather Portfolio

Market Sentiment • 432 implied HN points • 16 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Sticking to a long-term investment strategy is key for great returns.
  2. Stock-heavy portfolios can carry more risk than expected, especially during market downturns.
  3. Diversifying investments to balance across economic conditions can lead to stable returns.

Daily Chartbook #279

Daily Chartbook • 2279 implied HN points • 14 Sep 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Mortgage demand at its lowest since 1996.
  2. Home prices near 1970 and 2008 levels, signaling a potential price normalization.
  3. National Financial Conditions Index suggests loosening financial conditions.

Portfolio Update

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. A top investment conviction for 2026 is being doubled down.
  2. The move specifically involves one of the 'Mag 7' stocks, meaning a major tech position is being adjusted.
  3. The full portfolio update is behind a paywall and available only to paid subscribers.

Clouded Judgement 1.30.26 - Software is Dead...Again!

Clouded Judgement • 15 implied HN points • 30 Jan 26
💼 Business Investing
  1. SaaS valuations are at decade lows — the median NTM revenue multiple is about 4.1x and FCF multiples have fallen sharply while growth rates are also weak (median NTM growth ~12%).
  2. Investor confidence in the SaaS business model has been shaken because AI and the much lower marginal cost to build software increase competition, threaten retention, and raise the chance that some companies have little or no terminal value.
  3. Markets will likely only recover if companies show stable retention and resilient cash flows despite AI challengers over multiple quarters, and early reports (e.g., ServiceNow) haven’t yet shown widespread retention declines.

A Mean Reversion Strategy with 2.11 Sharpe

Quant Trading Rules • 79 implied HN points • 20 May 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. A mean reversion strategy was tested with rules involving computing rolling means and using the IBS indicator, focusing on bouncing back from market drops.
  2. Implementing a market regime filter significantly reduced drawdowns and exposure time, improving the Sharpe ratio and reducing drawdown durations.
  3. By incorporating a long & short strategy, trading QQQ in bull markets and PSQ in bear markets, a good balance of Sharpe ratio, annual returns, and maximum drawdown was achieved.

This Time is Different

DeFi Education • 639 implied HN points • 24 Jun 23
🔮 Crypto Investing
  1. Bitcoin's value is over $30,000 again and is growing, showing strong interest in crypto.
  2. Although the crypto market is buzzing with energy and institutional support, social media activity seems quiet, possibly due to summer vacations.
  3. It's important to stay informed and engaged with the crypto world, even if there are quiet periods.

The Bear Cave #259

The Bear Cave • 513 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. New reports from activist investors reveal concerns about companies like Mercury General and FTAI Aviation. These reports suggest significant financial issues and mismanagement that could affect stock prices.
  2. There's a new tool called FOIAsearch.com that makes it easier to find information about SEC investigations and FOIA requests. This can help investors spot potential problems in companies earlier.
  3. Recent executive resignations in companies like Compass Minerals and NextEra Energy indicate instability. Frequent leadership changes can create uncertainty about the company's future.

Hyper Complacent

Venture Prose • 359 implied HN points • 12 Nov 23
💼 Business Investing
  1. Being hyper-complacent can harm relationships and erode trust, despite initial short-term benefits of being pleasing.
  2. Seek tough love and honest feedback rather than blind support, especially in entrepreneurial ventures.
  3. To succeed, surround yourself with believers, cultivate a driving force, and courageously face challenges and risks.

The Bear Cave #244

The Bear Cave • 769 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
💼 Business Investing
  1. Fuzzy Panda Research raised concerns about Stride Inc, suggesting it might face serious challenges after benefiting from COVID-related funding. They believe the company is going to struggle with competition and internal issues.
  2. Recent executive resignations from companies like CVS Health and The Joint Corp signal potential instability, as these leaders leave amid significant financial downturns for their companies.
  3. A new FTC rule will make it easier for consumers to cancel subscriptions. This change aims to prevent businesses from making it too hard for people to stop payments for services they no longer want.

How Not To Be A Bitcoin Asshole

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 52 implied HN points • 30 Nov 25
🔮 Crypto Investing
  1. You can invest in Bitcoin and still be careful about its risks. It's important to have a realistic view and not get too caught up in the hype.
  2. While Bitcoin is an interesting idea with potential, it doesn't have the same proven value as gold. Gold has been around for thousands of years, while Bitcoin is still relatively new and uncertain.
  3. Being critical and skeptical about Bitcoin doesn't mean you hate it. It’s okay to recognize both the potential and the dangers that come with investing in it.

The Bear Cave #260

The Bear Cave • 489 implied HN points • 09 Feb 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. New activist reports have revealed serious allegations against several companies, including Applied Optoelectronics and GeneDx Holdings, suggesting they may be involved in fraud and misleading practices.
  2. There were significant executive resignations this week from companies like Match Group and Digital Turbine, indicating possible instability within these businesses.
  3. The SEC is changing how it conducts investigations, which may slow down enforcement actions, showing a shift in regulatory approach.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 28 Apr 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Tesla's stock is mainly for those who believe in its future of self-driving cars, rather than just traditional vehicles. If you don't think cars will be autonomous in the future, you might want to skip investing in Tesla.
  2. Tech companies are expected to see significant earnings growth over the next five years. Some of the highest expected growth comes from companies like Micron and AMD, which currently have low earnings but high potential.
  3. Alphabet recently introduced a dividend, which is new for a company that typically reinvests its profits. This may attract more investors looking for immediate returns, similar to what Apple and Meta have done.

What to Buy: Seasoned Coins vs. Fresh Launches

DeFi Education • 799 implied HN points • 16 Apr 23
🔮 Crypto Investing
  1. There are many coins available, but creating a successful one is tough. It needs to be used and well-liked for it to last.
  2. Older coins often struggle to survive, but some can still thrive years later. You have time to research and pick the right ones now.
  3. Investing in new coins can be risky. You need to be ready to hold on for a while, even if the value drops before it might rise again.

What To Do When Banks Stop Fiat Withdrawals

DeFi Education • 1039 implied HN points • 23 Jan 23
🔮 Crypto Investing
  1. Banks are becoming stricter about crypto transactions, making it hard for users to withdraw USD or deposit new money to buy crypto.
  2. It's smart to use a separate bank account for crypto-related transactions to avoid issues with your main bank account.
  3. Using a decentralized exchange (DEX) like Bisq can help you trade crypto and fiat more safely and securely, even during limited banking access.

Crypto Bankruptcy Update, Curve Wars, And More...

DeFi Education • 519 implied HN points • 06 Aug 23
🔮 Crypto Investing
  1. Curve's founder is selling his CRV tokens to pay back loans, which shows some financial strain in the DeFi space.
  2. DeFi organizations that offered loans are becoming stricter with their lending rules now.
  3. New findings about BlockFi are raising serious concerns, potentially affecting trust in crypto lending platforms.

Bonds are the Ultimate Shitcoin

The Dollar Endgame • 399 implied HN points • 17 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Bonds are facing significant challenges with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and inflation, causing a major downturn in the bond market.
  2. Bonds are crucial in the financial system and act as a form of money, affecting various sectors like banking and exposing risks in durations and interest rate movements.
  3. The bond market's current struggles are indicative of larger economic issues, with potential consequences for inflation, debt, and decisions by the Federal Reserve.

Can you front-run markets?

Market Sentiment • 412 implied HN points • 30 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Arbitrage opportunities exist due to global market interconnectedness
  2. Limited correlation between U.S. and other markets for front-running
  3. Market movements are mainly influenced by local factors rather than cross-market correlations

Momentum

Market Sentiment • 412 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Momentum investing is based on the idea that winners will keep winning and losers will keep losing.
  2. In a story about finding a lost submarine, leveraging the collective wisdom of diverse individuals led to success.
  3. A simple momentum investing strategy has shown consistent, outperforming results over years and different market conditions.

All In

Market Sentiment • 412 implied HN points • 18 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Survival in investing means being prepared for bad days.
  2. Diversifying investments can help minimize future regret and balance risk.
  3. Conservative investing can be more important than chasing high returns.

Show Me The Money

Genuine Impact - Charting Finance, Investing & Tech • 412 implied HN points • 21 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The total estimated money on earth is $633.88 trillion, including various forms like physical currency, digital money, stock market, real estate, and commodities.
  2. The wealth distribution is highly skewed, with 69% of the world's wealth being held by just seven countries, showing a significant wealth gap globally.
  3. Top 26 billionaires own more wealth than the poorest 3.8 billion people combined, highlighting the extreme wealth inequality in today's world.

Realistic Retirement Planning

The Better Letter • 412 implied HN points • 07 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Realistic retirement planning is crucial, especially considering the impact of debt and the average 401(k) balance.
  2. Advice on saving more and saving earlier is important, but should be realistic and consider individual circumstances.
  3. Retirement planning should acknowledge competing priorities and be approached with creativity and understanding, without judgment.