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Concoda is a macro and geopolitical newsletter focusing on financial systems post-2007/08 crisis, the evolving role of central banks, and shifts in monetary policies. It discusses regulatory impacts, Treasury and Fed maneuvers, repo and Eurodollar markets, money market dynamics, and global finance's future amidst emerging market challenges.

Central Banking Monetary Policy Regulatory Standards Global Finance Market Dynamics Financial Stability Geopolitical Impacts

The hottest Substack posts of Concoda

And their main takeaways

Infographics: Centrally Cleared U.S. Treasury Market Flows

178 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Trading Investments Economy Monetary Policy
  1. The U.S. Treasury market uses a central counterparty to manage trades. This helps ensure that transactions are processed smoothly and securely.
  2. Understanding the flow of money in the U.S. Treasury market is important for seeing how the economy functions. It gives insights into larger financial trends.
  3. Infographics can help simplify complex information about the Treasury market, making it easier to understand for everyone. Visuals often make learning about finance more accessible.

Money Market Update

243 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Bond Market
  1. The money market is currently stable, with dealers holding more U.S. Treasuries. This might lead to more relaxed conditions in the market.
  2. Investors are not as worried about future issues with T-bills as they were during the previous debt ceiling crisis. This suggests a more confident market outlook.
  3. Upcoming auctions of longer-term bonds are expected to attract foreign investors, which could positively impact yields despite fears about rising rates.

Money Market Update

221 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investments Economic Trends Financial Policy Banking
  1. The money market is moving from a period of cash abundance to more careful funding conditions. This could affect how money flows in the next few months.
  2. A big change is expected once the debt limit is resolved, which could lead to a surge in bills. This might reduce the reserves banks have available.
  3. Foreign investors may be less interested in U.S. Treasury securities because other local bonds offer better returns. This could impact future U.S. debt sales.

Infographics: The Shadow Cash Market

313 implied HN points • 28 May 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Economic Policy Financial Instruments Cash Flow
  1. The shadow cash market involves various types of private transactions that are not easily tracked or regulated. This means that a lot of money moves around without official oversight.
  2. Overall, the liquidity in this market can act like bonds, providing a kind of security and stability for those involved. It’s an alternative way to manage and access funds.
  3. Understanding this market is important as it has impacts on the economy. It helps people see how money flows in ways that aren’t always visible.

Money Market Update

281 implied HN points • 20 May 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Monetary Policy Financial Education
  1. Cash is flowing back into the money markets, leading to calmer conditions. This means there's plenty of cash available, which is a good sign.
  2. The recent panel discussions revealed that issues in the market were influenced by trade tariffs and how they affected different types of financial trades. Understanding these factors can help make better investment decisions.
  3. Despite some panic over the Moody's downgrade, experts believe it's not a big deal and the U.S. Treasuries are still a safe bet. Overall, it's a stable time to consider investing in Treasuries.
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The Money Market Blindspot: Part I

508 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Monetary Policy Debt Management Economic Trends
  1. A funding squeeze is turning into a big increase in cash availability. This change is happening as market conditions ease, but new issues like the debt ceiling are causing uncertainty.
  2. The financial system has a lot less cash than it had in the past, partly because of changes in how money markets operate. There hasn't been serious funding stress recently, which is a good sign.
  3. Another cash surge is expected to hit the banking system soon. As the Treasury reduces its cash cushion, this could lead to more market volatility down the line.

Money Market Update

443 implied HN points • 01 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Monetary Policy Economic Trends Liquidity management
  1. The Federal Reserve is continuing its balance sheet reduction to avoid financial crises, with expectations of it ending by June.
  2. The U.S. Treasury might reduce its issuance of short-term bills to save costs, especially if the Fed maintains its current policies.
  3. Despite challenges like a strong dollar and global tensions, risk assets are anticipated to perform better than bonds in the near future.

The Money Market Blindspot: Part II

313 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Liquidity management Debt Management Federal Reserve Economic Policy
  1. A debt ceiling issue is causing uncertainty in money markets, which could lead to financial instability. This situation means the government is trying to work around limits, but it won't last long.
  2. With the government's checking account set to change drastically soon, we might see a mix of cash coming in from taxes and cash going out from spending. This could make the borrowing costs change a lot.
  3. As the Fed keeps trying to manage its balance, any unexpected spikes in interest rates could disrupt their plans. This means traders should be ready for some unexpected events in the money market.

Money Market Update

405 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Update Monetary Policy Debt Management Investment Strategies
  1. The upcoming U.S. presidential inauguration and a new Treasury Secretary may lead to changes in the money market. This could create opportunities for profits.
  2. The debt ceiling issue is affecting liquidity and will lead to market volatility. When resolved, it will change the flow of money in the markets.
  3. Foreign investors are becoming more interested in U.S. Treasuries due to better returns. This could impact how these markets operate in the near future.

Infographics: The TGA Drawdown

367 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Economics Policy Infographics
  1. The U.S. government is depleting its bank account during a debt limit issue. This means they have less money available to spend.
  2. There are flows and processes involved when the government runs out of money. Understanding these flows can help clarify the financial situation.
  3. The information is presented in both dark and light mode, which makes it easier for different people to read and understand.

Money Market Update

464 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Central Banking Liquidity management
  1. The Federal Reserve took steps to manage money market pressures around year-end, which helped stabilize the situation. They provided morning repo operations to encourage lower trading rates.
  2. Despite these efforts, many traders still chose not to use the Fed’s cheapest repo options, which showed a lingering fear about using those facilities. This meant that repurchase agreements still traded at higher rates.
  3. Looking ahead, the debt ceiling is expected to cause uncertainty in the money markets. As people prepare for this, interbank liquidity may increase, but it won't necessarily make funding any easier.

The Year-End Money Market Storm

464 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Monetary Policy Financial Instruments Risk management
  1. Demand for funding is very high right now, causing banks to struggle. This could lead to big changes in money markets by the end of the year.
  2. Many traders are looking for ways to finance their stock trades, leading to more activity in repo markets. This means borrowing money using stocks as collateral is becoming common.
  3. There's a big challenge with U.S. government debt right now. The banks need to buy up a lot of unwanted debt at a time when borrowing money is getting tougher.

Infographics: Intraday Repo Market Flows

286 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Financial Instruments Banking
  1. The intraday repo market shows how cash moves between banks and institutions. It's important because it helps maintain stability in the financial system.
  2. Visual infographics can help people understand complex market flows clearly. They make the data accessible and engaging for everyone.
  3. Tracking daily repo market timings is useful for understanding financial trends. It allows investors to make informed decisions based on current market conditions.

The Fed's Repo Defensive: Part I

508 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Market Analysis Economic Indicators Liquidity management
  1. The Fed's repo facility has been used for the first time by major market players during a tough financial period. This shows it can help keep rates in check, but there are still issues to address.
  2. Over the past few years, the Fed's approach to managing its balance sheet has led to unstable liquidity in money markets. This instability caused significant rate spikes and raised concerns about the overall health of the financial system.
  3. When money market rates soared unexpectedly, it prompted the Fed to step in as a major lender. This was a significant move to bring balance back to the financial markets and highlight the Fed's critical role in managing economic stability.

The Fed's Repo Defensive: Part II

367 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
💰 Finance Markets Monetary Policy Banking Economics Investments
  1. The Fed's Repo Facility helps provide emergency cash loans to banks when needed. This is crucial during times of financial stress to keep the market stable.
  2. Recently, there have been instances where dealers didn't fully utilize the available funds in the repo facility, indicating issues with how it's being accessed. This suggests that the process needs improvements to encourage more usage.
  3. The Fed is looking to make changes to the repo facility to fix its shortcomings and ensure dealers can quickly and efficiently obtain emergency funds when crises arise.

Money Market Update

318 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Monetary Policy Liquidity management Investment Strategies
  1. The Federal Reserve is not worried about the debt ceiling impacting its plans to reduce its balance sheet. They believe liquidity in money markets is still high.
  2. The U.S. Treasury has enough resources to manage until around mid-2025, but any delays in addressing the debt ceiling could create funding issues.
  3. Equity repos, which involve borrowing cash using stocks as collateral, are becoming more popular. This trend is linked to rising demand and values of equities.

Money Market Update

324 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Policy Central Banking Liquidity management Investment strategy
  1. The Federal Reserve plans to keep reducing its balance sheet until at least 2025. This is to normalize financial conditions rather than to tighten the economy.
  2. Recent changes in interest rates show that the Fed is trying to clear extra cash from its programs. This could help push down short-term borrowing rates and shake up financial markets.
  3. Despite a strong U.S. dollar, there's still good liquidity available in the markets. This offers potential support for riskier investments as banks might adjust their capital due to rising stock prices.

Money Market Update

308 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Federal Reserve Economic Indicators
  1. The money market faced a tough quarter-end, but there were no serious problems reported. Most banks didn't heavily rely on the Fed's emergency funding options this time.
  2. A new measure called reserve demand elasticity (RDE) suggests that the banks currently have enough reserves. This means the Fed can keep interest rates stable for now.
  3. Funding pressures are growing, but they haven't reached a critical point. This signals that while banks feel some strain, they are managing for the time being.

Infographics: The Fed's Standing Repo Facility In Action

216 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics Banking Investing Monetary Policy Markets
  1. The Federal Reserve has a special tool called a repo facility to manage money supply in the economy. It helps banks borrow money quickly when they need it.
  2. This repo facility can provide short-term loans to banks, which helps keep the financial system stable. It's like a safety net during times of financial stress.
  3. Understanding how this facility works is important for grasping the bigger picture of economic stability and the Fed's role in it. It helps us see how money flows in the economy.

The Fed's New Rescue Mechanism

513 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
💰 Finance Federal Reserve Banking System Monetary Policy Financial Stability
  1. The Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) is expiring after being used to address financial panic and market stimulation caused by banks' underwater assets.
  2. Following a series of bank failures in the aftermath of COVID-19's speculative boom, the Fed introduced the BTFP to provide a confidence boost and stabilize markets.
  3. The BTFP evolved into a risk-free arbitrage opportunity for banks, leading to its rapid increase in volumes before its sudden discontinuation in March 2024.

Money Market Update

367 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance
  1. Higher bank reserves and lower Fed RRPs indicate looser financial conditions continuing.
  2. Falling bond volatility suggests a stable market.
  3. Tighter cross-currency bases point to ongoing financial stability.

The Fed's Global Dilemma

794 implied HN points • 01 May 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Global Finance Financial Stability Central Banking
  1. The banking system has evolved significantly post the 2007/08 Great Financial Crisis, leading to changes in global monetary standards and U.S. central bank's mechanisms.
  2. Regulatory standards like LCR, NSFR, and SLR have transformed major financial institutions into stable entities, impacting their ability to engage in certain financial activities.
  3. The Federal Reserve introduced new mechanisms like Jaws of the Fed™ to control money market rates and ensure financial stability, but faces a dilemma with vulnerabilities in its global lower jaws.

New Post Format: Infographics

286 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
🎨 Art & Illustration Infographics
  1. Readers value infographics as much as articles; 90% of the time spent creating a Concoda article is on graphics
  2. Infographics will now be sent as separate posts for immediate access and subscriber interaction
  3. Light versions of infographics will be included for subscribers, and a merch store is in the works as well

The Treasury's Gambit

653 implied HN points • 27 May 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Financial Markets Central Banking
  1. Monetary leaders are implementing new tools to prevent instability in the bond market and stimulate risk assets without central bank assistance.
  2. Regulatory constraints have hindered major liquidity providers in the Treasury market, leading to the need for Treasury buyback programs to enhance liquidity.
  3. The U.S. Treasury is set to conduct buyback programs in 2024 to manage cash, boost liquidity, and potentially lower expenses and yields in the secondary Treasury market.

Money Market Update

286 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
💰 Finance Markets Investing Banking Economics Money
  1. Dollar liquidity remains high with low failures to deliver, stable bond volatility, tight dealer repo spreads, and tightening cross-currency bases
  2. Changes in the Fed's rescue mechanism are upcoming, as discussed in a recent post by Concoda
  3. Exploration of the transformation in the repo market and its potential impact on other dollar markets

The Repo Market Rewire

264 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Market structure Liquidity
  1. The Repo Market is undergoing significant changes, with a shift to a secured monetary standard and challenges in the system prompting new adaptations.
  2. The Repo Market has become more systemic and fragmented, with different regions defined by various participants, securities, and settlement methods.
  3. The presence of triparty and interdealer markets within the Repo Market highlights the importance of central clearing in reducing risks and enhancing liquidity among major financial players.

Demystifying the Repo Market: Part II

308 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
💰 Finance Banking Markets Investing
  1. The U.S. repo market is crucial for dollar funding but lacks transparency.
  2. The GCF repo serves as an interdealer market where traders compete for market-making spreads.
  3. Understanding the inner workings of the GCF repos unveils influential chains in global finance.

Demystifying the Eurodollar System

453 implied HN points • 15 Jul 23
💰 Finance Markets Currency Banking Global Finance
  1. The Eurodollar system emerged post-WWII to store dollars outside the US banking system.
  2. America's global security pact led major banks to set up branches worldwide, creating the global dollar funding complex.
  3. The Eurodollar system involves a complex network of trades in Eurodollar markets.

The Silent Monetary Revolution

594 implied HN points • 07 Feb 23
  1. The Federal Reserve has gained significant power in financial markets due to the transition to secured lending standards.
  2. The traditional benchmark rate LIBOR is being phased out in favor of risk-free rates like SOFR, ushering in a new era of financial stability.
  3. The reliance on U.S. government securities is increasing, leading to the Federal Reserve having growing control over global finance.

The Fed's Hidden Put

437 implied HN points • 18 Jun 23
💰 Finance Markets Liquidity Funding Monetary Policy Banking
  1. The repo market plays a crucial role in providing liquidity to the financial system globally.
  2. The repo market structure involves lenders like money market funds connecting with borrowers like hedge funds through various intermediaries.
  3. Recent changes in the repo market dynamics may lead to the Fed utilizing it as a tool for market stimulation.

The Battle for the Treasury Market

502 implied HN points • 21 Mar 23
💰 Finance Market Regulation Monetary Policy Market structure Financial Stability Transparency
  1. There is a hidden battle within America's sovereign debt market that is about to transform.
  2. The regulatory focus is shifting towards increasing transparency in the Treasury market to subdue systemic risk.
  3. Implementing all-to-all trading in the Treasury market could democratize the market, enhance liquidity, and improve market resilience.

The Death of the Interbank Market

356 implied HN points • 07 Aug 23
💰 Finance Monetary System Regulations
  1. The interbank market has changed significantly due to regulations like The Dodd-Frank Act and The Basel Framework.
  2. Banks are now less willing to lend to each other, with the shadow banking layer taking on their previous roles.
  3. The Federal Funds market, once vital for dollar funding, is in decline as a result of these shifts and regulations.