Concoda

An actionable macro and geopolitical newsletter that helps you navigate the craziest environment of all time.

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Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Concoda 's top posts of the month

By hacker news affinity
day week month year all
Concoda 718 HN points 22 Jan 23
Even as market illiquidity and volatility rises to ominous levels, all threats to market stability have been thwarted, but not for long
Concoda 124 HN points 27 Jan 23
Next thread will drop over the weekend...
Concoda 113 HN points 17 Jan 23
Credit spreads narrowing? Emerging market implied vol collapsing? VIX compression prompting systematic buying? Concoda must question the bear thesis. Leading indicators, however, are coming in soft...
Concoda 97 HN points 05 Jan 23
This week, as bank reserves declined towards the $3 trillion mark, we witnessed a huge spike in the Fed's RRP due to regulatory arbitrage. With RRP paying less then SOFR, RRP rate could fall further..
Concoda 97 HN points 23 Jan 23
In case you missed it… One of the Fed’s governors has suggested the Fed-implied point of instability when it comes to reserve balances ($2-$2.5 billion) has a lot more wiggle room. Governor Waller suggests two significant changes to the Fed’s QT framework that effectively
Concoda 86 HN points 09 Jan 23
As we've broken through the coveted 3750-3890 range, our SM shows it's a coinflip for major U.S. indices. But we're macro bears, and options imply high vol and more downside (before CPI and Powell!)
Concoda 86 HN points 30 Jan 23
Sneak peek of our next piece (which was delayed due to personal reasons, sorry!)
Concoda 75 HN points 25 Jan 23
SOFR fails to climb above the ON/RRP rate, which likely won't tempt leveraged bond financiers. Yet, the RRP's level has reached short-term lows. Other players are drawing liquidity...
Concoda 75 HN points 11 Jan 23
Risk is to the downside on equities, but expect buying from vol strategies after implied was crushed yesterday. Vol will likely rally into the most crucial day of our lives, until next month's CPI!
Concoda 70 HN points 13 Jan 23
As the transitory goldilocks economy emerges, there's little tightening in money markets. Reserves up by almost 9% and TGA down by 10%. Meanwhile, bond liquidity and trading volumes remain ample...
Concoda 59 HN points 19 Jan 23
After awful economic fundamentals coincide with decent liquidity fundamentals, we remain short. Our growth model keeps falling while our SM is approaching max bullishness. Onwards and... downwards
Concoda 59 HN points 03 Feb 23
Concoda is reluctant to chase and still thinks the rally has been driven by liquidity and structural forces over fundamentals. We're sticking with interest-yielding cash for now