Yet Another Value Blog

Mark Zuckerberg once called Twitter the clown car that fell into a gold mine. I’ve been laughing internally at that description recently, because Twitter’s deal with Elon Musk has moved them fully from a gold mine into a complete circus. I covered the

There’s a lot of opportunity out there right now. That’s shouldn’t come as a crazy surprise. Markets are down ~25% over the past six months (and, honestly, it feels a lot more brutal than that!), and it feels like everyone is bear-ish and prepping for a crash (count me out of that camp! I’m very bullish). With a drawdown that heavy generally comes a decent bit of opportunity.

The market is fearful right now. I don’t say that lightly. I am saying that based on the very scientific approach of going to CNN’s “Fear & Greed Index” and seeing an “extreme fear” reading. I’m just kidding about taking the CNN Index scientifically, but that fear reading matches up with my conversations with other investors. I feel like people are tripping over themselves to be bearish. Pessimism rules the day; I’ve had multiple conversations with very sharp fundamental focused value investors that have included the phrase “I just feel like we’re set up for a crash.”

Markets have certainly been brutal this year (unless you were invested in energy stocks, then they’ve been a picnic!). Obviously, markets are forward looking; they look past current results to what’s gong to happen in the future. And with energy prices soaring, high inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty caused by Russia, the markets are looking at the future and saying “Yikes!”

I’ve mentioned a few times (most recently here) that I’m a little confused by the price of commodity and cyclical companies. The basics of this confusion are simple: commodity prices have absolutely ripped higher, and while many of the commodity stocks have seen their stocks go up, their stocks have not gone up even close to as much as the underlying input’s increase would imply.

This morning, Elon Musk tweeted his Twitter deal was “temporarily on hold” pending details about fake accounts. The news sent Twitter plummeting to ~$38/share, an enormous spread versus the deal price of $54.20. I’m still processing the news (it’s been less than two hours!), and I’ve got a little egg on my face here, as I’ve been

Evan Tindell, CIO of Bireme Capital, discusses the circus that is the Elon Musk and Twitter merger agreement and explains why he thinks Delaware law and precedent suggest Elon would lose in court and be forced to close the merger on terms. You can find

This is the third entry in my deep dives sponsored by Tegus series. The goal of these are simple: every month, Tegus is going to give me a few expert interviews and I’m going to use those to dive into an investing topic. Some months, it could just be a dive into a specific company; other months, it might be a dive into an industry. You can find the

Phew, what a month it’s been. I’m always happy to talk offline about any ideas you’re interested in / thinking through, but given the huge market volatility I wanted to quickly provide an update on three premium ideas that reported results recently and have seen their shares (unfairly, IMO) dragged down in the current drawdown despite solid catalysts an…

Some random thoughts on articles that caught my attention in the last month. Note that I try to write notes on articles immediately after reading them, so there can be a little overlap in themes if an article grabs my attention early in the month and is similar to an article that I like later in the month.

Michael Fritzell, founder of Asian Century Stocks, goes through his thesis on T. Hasegawa. T. Hasegawa trades at a huge discount to its domestic peers like IFF despite similar or better growth and margins, and Michael thinks some recent changes and shareholder pressure could set the company up to rerate.

Alex Morris, founder of The Science of Hitting, returns to the podcast to discuss all things media, including his investment in Disney and Netflix (you can find his first appearance on SPOT here). Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or most other podcast players, as well as on

Bill Chen returns to the podcast to discuss his thesis on CLPR and the ongoing boom in NYC apartment rentals. You can find my notes on CLPR here, a summary of Bill’s CLPR thesis here, and Bill’s first podcast on FRPH here. Please follow the podcast on

Luis Sanchez, founder of LVS Advisory, discusses his bull case for Endor AG, including why competitors can't recreate their product and how they benefit from the current boom in motor sports like F1 and NASCAR. You can find my notes on Endor here and

Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in May 2022. Please follow the podcast on Spotify, iTunes, or most other podcast players, as well as on YouTube if you prefer video! And please be sure to rate / review the podcast if you enjoy it, or share it with someone else who would enjoy it (more listeners is a critical part of the flywheel that keeps this Substack and podcast going!).

Hi all, I’ve had a lot of conversations on premium names over the past two weeks, and I wanted to put out two quick notes on particular areas of interest. Those two stocks are SIGA and FYBR. I’ll start with the easier one: SIGA. SIGA paid out a nice special dividend earlier this month