The hottest Investing Substack posts right now

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2022 Fairfax Letter Highlights

Tidefall Notes • 314 implied HN points • 11 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Fairfax has undergone a significant transformation and is gaining more attention from investors.
  2. Fairfax's bond portfolio strategy has helped maintain its book value amidst market challenges.
  3. Prem Watsa's positive outlook for Fairfax's cash generation and potential growth in earnings is highlighted.

Your feedback

Asian Century Stocks • 314 implied HN points • 03 Sep 23
💼 Business Investing
  1. Subscribers prefer deep-dive reports and portfolio discussions over other content types.
  2. Among deep dives, stocks from Hong Kong, the US, Australia, and Japan are preferred over Southeast Asian stocks.
  3. Thematic reports on 'Hidden Champions' and other industry-related topics are well-received by readers.

Don’t Be Stupid

The Better Letter • 314 implied HN points • 30 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Not being stupid matters more than being smart in investing.
  2. Avoiding errors is more important than making good choices.
  3. In loser's games like investing, not being stupid matters more than being smart.

Funding Landscape

Sriram Krishnan’s Newsletter • 314 implied HN points • 12 Jun 23
💼 Business Investing
  1. Different types of seed rounds have varying funding amounts and valuation ranges.
  2. Understanding your funding needs and managing expectations is crucial for securing follow-on financing.
  3. Research and identify the investors who typically participate in each seed round to target the right ones for your funding.
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Overview of Portfolio Construction and Risk Management, Part 2

DeFi Education • 699 implied HN points • 03 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Human emotions like greed and fear can affect investing decisions. People often buy high when they're greedy and ignore good opportunities when they're scared.
  2. Even experienced money managers can make mistakes by following trends instead of sticking to their strategies. They sometimes buy at the peak instead of the bottom.
  3. Understanding these emotional swings can help in better portfolio management. It's important to recognize how emotions can lead to poor financial choices.

How to Judge if a Stock is Overvalued or Undervalued

Shivansh • 79 implied HN points • 23 Apr 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Stock valuation involves analyzing metrics like Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, comparing with others in the sector to identify overvalued stocks.
  2. Price-to-Book Value ratio is crucial for asset-heavy sectors like Adani Ports to make informed investment decisions.
  3. Understanding stock valuation methods can help investors save and grow their money effectively.

What is worth holding on to?

Fund Marketer • 3 implied HN points • 26 Feb 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Active asset managers are under heavy pressure from passive funds and ETFs, which is driving consolidation and buyouts. Cherry-picking a few old-economy winners doesn’t change the broader trend of active underperformance.
  2. Financial firms are repurposing legacy assets and structures—like art-backed lending and debt-for-nature swaps—to create new revenue streams and support future needs. These moves won’t solve big problems alone, but they are pragmatic ways to finance innovation and conservation.
  3. A long-running project about a Sputnik-era plan to teach advanced mathematics has been completed and will be released next summer. Finishing and sharing such work shows how historical ideas can be reexamined and made relevant today.

Daily Chartbook #295

Daily Chartbook • 1572 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Typical mortgage rates fluctuate around the average rate.
  2. Median monthly mortgage payment has increased by 10.2% YoY.
  3. Homebuyers with a $3,000 budget have lost $40,000 in purchasing power since last year due to rising mortgage rates.

TradFi to DeFi: Personal Update

DeFi Education • 1638 implied HN points • 17 Mar 22
🔮 Crypto Investing
  1. The journey from traditional finance (TradFi) to decentralized finance (DeFi) can be exciting and transformative. Many people are exploring new financial systems and opportunities.
  2. Having a strong interest in markets and businesses can spark a desire to learn more about finance. This curiosity often begins early, like during high school.
  3. Engaging with DeFi offers a chance to be part of a growing and innovative financial landscape. It's important to stay updated and informed as this area rapidly evolves.

Is the Tao smarter than the Dow?

What's Important? • 32 implied HN points • 14 Dec 25
💼 Business Investing
  1. Companies that treat employees like family by investing in their welfare and communities build loyalty and long-term resilience, which fuels innovation and survival.
  2. Authentic leaders who stay open and 'receive'—drawing on mature love, contribution, and an external intelligence—unlock far more creativity, growth, and win-win outcomes than ego-driven or purely market-driven leaders.
  3. Wealth can create isolation, but putting even a small portion of resources into personal transformation and community connection can reintegrate capital and lead to outsized, positive returns where money follows the right contribution.

Daily Chartbook #300

Daily Chartbook • 1545 implied HN points • 13 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The share of for-sale homes with price drops is at its highest level in a year.
  2. Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index has dropped to its lowest level in a year.
  3. Jobless claims remained unchanged at 209k, but continuing claims rose more than expected for the 3rd week in a row.

The Bear Cave #257

The Bear Cave • 396 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Activist reports are highlighting possible financial issues with several companies, suggesting they may not be as strong as they claim.
  2. Recent executive resignations at various companies indicate instability and potential challenges within their leadership.
  3. The U.S. Department of Transportation is taking action against Southwest Airlines for their ongoing delays, showing the importance of accountability in the travel industry.

Earnings: Hyperscalers, AMD, ALAB, ANET

Mule’s Musings • 122 implied HN points • 11 Aug 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Hyperscalers are large tech companies that significantly impact the market. They are key players in the tech industry.
  2. AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) is a prominent company in semiconductor technology. They create powerful processors and graphics cards.
  3. Companies like ALAB and ANET are also notable in the tech space, focusing on different innovations and solutions.

Stock Talk - A Newsletter About Investing

Jon’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 29 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. After a strong first quarter, stock market gains often slow down or even decline in the second quarter. History shows the market can be vulnerable after big early gains.
  2. Slow and steady rate cuts from the Federal Reserve can be good for stocks. A gradual approach usually leads to bigger gains compared to quick cuts.
  3. Asset-light businesses, like franchises or companies with good credit terms, can grow without needing heavy investments. These businesses can be valuable for long-term investors.

OpenAI: Altman Returns

Don't Worry About the Vase • 1388 implied HN points • 30 Nov 23
💼 Business Investing
  1. The new board at OpenAI is officially back to its previous state.
  2. An investigation and the actions of the new board will gradually reveal the future of OpenAI.
  3. Having a strong board that can hold the CEO accountable is crucial for organizations like OpenAI.

Portfolio review January 2024

Asian Century Stocks • 157 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Portfolio dropped -1.3% in January 2024 but has seen a +26.6% increase since inception in October 2021.
  2. Hong Kong equities faced a setback in January, leading to drops in share prices of various companies.
  3. Chinese oil exploration and production company CNOOC experienced a rise in share prices due to government evaluations.

Why do people invest in expensive stocks?

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 19 Feb 26
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Many investors treat very expensive stocks like lottery tickets, hoping for a rare big payoff instead of focusing on realistic expected returns.
  2. Surveys and analyst reports find the majority (about 60% overall and 81% of retail investors) hold high-valuation stocks because they expect high future returns, while far fewer cite superior fundamentals (~15%) or safer past performance (<10%).
  3. These beliefs contradict finance theory and empirical evidence, yet investors remain convinced and continue to hold expensive stocks despite knowing their high valuations.

DeFi Education Q&A (October 2023)

DeFi Education • 299 implied HN points • 15 Oct 23
🔮 Crypto Investing
  1. Monthly Q&A sessions help provide answers to questions about DeFi topics. It's a great way to get insights and learn more each month.
  2. The community is encouraged to suggest deep dive topics for future discussions. This gives everyone a chance to focus on what they find most interesting.
  3. Participation in these sessions is for paid subscribers, highlighting the value of exclusive content in this education space. Subscribers can access more detailed information and learning opportunities.

Modern Meditations: Rebecca Kaden

The Generalist • 1601 implied HN points • 14 Sep 23
💼 Business Investing
  1. Rebecca Kaden emphasizes the power of stories in both venture capital and publishing.
  2. She highlights the importance of technology taking accountability for its negative impacts.
  3. Rebecca values the slow and thoughtful approach to building iconic structures, contrasting it with the fast pace of tech entrepreneurship.

Living Legends: Finance & Investing

Olshansky's Newsletter • 22 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. A small group of investors created the major investing styles we use today—value, macro, quantitative, activist, and systematic risk approaches.
  2. Each legend contributed a distinct mental model or tool that changed how markets are understood: durable-business investing and capital allocation, reflexivity and macro bets, math- and data-driven trading, activist pressure tactics, and formal frameworks for debt cycles and risk.
  3. Their books, letters, trades, and firms turned bold ideas into standard practice, providing the foundational zero-to-one lessons that modern finance now refines and builds upon.

Did Oracle Just Pop The AI Bubble?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 11 Dec 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Oracle’s stock has plunged about 40% over the last three months, signaling a big shift in investor sentiment.
  2. A recent earnings miss acted like a warning shot, suggesting the company isn’t meeting high expectations tied to AI performance.
  3. Traders are watching Oracle closely today for signs that this could mark a broader cooling of the AI-driven market rally.

Real Clarity

Venture Prose • 299 implied HN points • 23 Apr 23
💼 Business Investing
  1. Finding equilibrium in startups involves balancing sales, tech, and product investments.
  2. Clarity in startups means aligning narrative with reality, managing expectations vs. realizations.
  3. Startups face challenges in maintaining clarity and facing the unpredictability of change.

Stocks Surge as Investors Take Victory Lap Around a Sinkhole

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 42 implied HN points • 21 Nov 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The stock market is showing signs of a bear market rally rather than a strong recovery. Some quick rises in stocks do not fix deeper economic issues.
  2. Current economic problems like high auto loan delinquencies and softening profit margins are not going away. They're happening right now and need immediate attention.
  3. Lower interest rates may take a long time to affect the economy, and the financial challenges we're facing will not be resolved by optimistic headlines or temporary stock gains.

The Dark Art of Short Selling (+ how to find shorts)

DeFi Education • 619 implied HN points • 22 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Short selling lets you profit from a decrease in asset prices, but it comes with high risks. If prices rise instead of fall, you could lose a lot of money.
  2. You can short sell through different platforms and strategies, including centralized exchanges, which might be safer but also have their own risks. It's important to manage your risk and not invest more than you can afford to lose.
  3. Knowing how short selling works can help you make better decisions in the market, even if you don't plan to short yourself. It can guide you in recognizing when to hold or sell your investments.

Thai Beverage update (THBEV SP)

Asian Century Stocks • 294 implied HN points • 17 Sep 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Thai Beverage is a dominant player in Thailand's spirits market, but faces new competition in the beer sector.
  2. The company has shown a strong recovery post-COVID with benefits in both the beer and food segments.
  3. Thai Beverage's stock trades at a lower P/E compared to global peers and carries a significant amount of debt.

Value Investors: How To "Buy & Hold" Forever Despite ST Volatility

Value Investing Substack • 294 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Value investors can create a low-volatility portfolio by combining Factor Investing with Value Investing
  2. Implementing a diversified portfolio of 20 stocks with >1:3 risk:reward can provide a 15% CAGR while minimizing downside volatility
  3. Staying disciplined, identifying stocks with high risk:reward ratio, and staying in cash until finding suitable opportunities are key strategies for value investors

Coking Coal: Its Over

Syncretica • 294 implied HN points • 14 May 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Predicted drop in coking coal prices due to Mongolia's coal imports displacing seaborne market imports.
  2. Issues with volume response from Australian, Canadian, and US coal producers to record high prices.
  3. Significant increase in Mongolian coking coal exports impacting market prices negatively.

I'll Be Bullish On Stocks Again...Someday

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 46 implied HN points • 14 Nov 25
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The stock market is currently overvalued, and many investors ignore real issues like high P/E ratios. It's essential to be cautious and think critically about investments.
  2. Gold and silver assets are rising, which suggests bigger economic problems might be happening. There's a chance the U.S. economy is shifting in a way that could affect markets severely.
  3. While there may be opportunities in specific stocks, the overall market needs to become cheaper before it's worth being bullish again. Patience and careful analysis are key.

Daily Chartbook #280

Daily Chartbook • 1545 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The median asking price for newly listed homes rose 4.3% YoY.
  2. The median monthly mortgage payment hit an all-time high of $2,632.
  3. Initial jobless claims were 220k, continuing claims at 1,688k.

What is a dividend?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 279 implied HN points • 20 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Dividends are payments companies make to shareholders from their profits. If you own shares in a company that pays dividends, you can earn money regularly just for holding those shares.
  2. Companies pay dividends for various reasons, such as rewarding shareholders, attracting long-term investors, and boosting their stock value. A steady dividend can show that a company is financially healthy.
  3. Investing in dividends can provide income, but the returns can be limited unless you own a lot of stock. It's important to choose companies wisely and consider whether you prioritizing dividends or stock performance.

Problems at an ARK Invest Favorite

The Bear Cave • 1026 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The Bear Cave raises concerns about an ARK Invest favorite, suggesting it may not live up to the hype and bold promises of innovation.
  2. The company in question has been spending on questionable celebrity partnerships, leading to doubts about its true potential.
  3. Despite predictions of high growth, The Bear Cave predicts a potential crash for this company, signaling a caution for investors.

Daily Chartbook #293

Daily Chartbook • 1467 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Logistics Managers Index expanded at fastest rate since February.
  2. Economic Optimism Index dropped in October for 26th consecutive pessimistic reading.
  3. Financial conditions tightened due to various factors like higher Treasury yield and lower equity prices.

Daily Chartbook #290

Daily Chartbook • 1467 implied HN points • 29 Sep 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Pending home sales fell 7.1% in August, hitting Covid lows.
  2. Median monthly new homebuyer payments are at a record $2,666.
  3. Average interest rate on a 30 year mortgage is now 7.83%, the highest since October 2000.