Modern Value Investing

Modern Value Investing focuses on identifying and investing in exceptional companies with promising growth prospects trading at reasonable valuations. It offers analysis on global economic trends, monetary policy impacts, specific stock investment cases, and portfolio management strategies, emphasizing markets in China, the US, and emerging economies.

Investment Strategies Global Economic Trends Portfolio Management Stock Market Analysis Monetary Policy Emerging Markets Real Estate Investment Technology and AI Trends Banking System Stability Inflation and Interest Rates

The hottest Substack posts of Modern Value Investing

And their main takeaways

The Investment Case for Chinese Stocks

353 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Economic Growth
  1. Chinese stocks have underperformed global peers, but a potential reversal could be imminent due to recent policy changes and low valuations.
  2. The Chinese government has taken measures to support the stock market, including a significant rescue package and regulatory changes, indicating a shift in approach.
  3. Factors like global underweighting of Chinese stocks, a recovering Chinese economy, and potential monetary policy adjustments suggest a positive outlook for investing in Chinese stocks.

2024 Market Musing

255 implied HN points • 26 Dec 23
💰 Finance Investing Economy Markets Emerging Markets Stocks
  1. Consider tax avoidance strategies when anticipating near term stock returns.
  2. Be cautious about the US stock market due to concerns about monetary policy and inflated valuations.
  3. Explore investing in emerging markets like South East Asia and China for potential growth opportunities.

Once in a Lifetime Opportunity in German Residential Real Estate Stocks

294 implied HN points • 21 Apr 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Investing Stocks Market Analysis Interest Rates
  1. German residential real estate stocks offer 200% upside based on their NAV
  2. Potential for German residential real estate stocks to re-establish dividends at 3-4%, translating to a 200% near term upside
  3. Investing in German residential real estate offers a long-term opportunity with potential returns of 5-6x over 10 years
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2024: The Year the iPhone is Falling Behind

157 implied HN points • 09 Dec 23
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Smartphones Mobile technology
  1. Google is making significant advancements in AI with the introduction of Gemini models and targeting Apple's iPhone market.
  2. Apple, despite its strong market presence, may face challenges in the AI race as its lack of innovative AI products could impact its competitive position.
  3. The future of smartphones is being reshaped by advancements in AI technology, with companies like Google and OpenAI aiming to redefine user experiences.

Too High for Too Long?

98 implied HN points • 06 Aug 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Interest Rates Real Estate Economic outlook
  1. Inflation measures are flawed, leading to skepticism about high interest rates, causing uncertainty for the US economy.
  2. The current rate hike cycle is more aggressive than previous cycles, potentially risking a recession in 2024.
  3. Challenges in real estate, student loan debts, and credit card debts, along with aggressive hiring, may indicate shaky ground for the US economy.

The FED has left the US Banking System Destabilized after Unprecedented Interest Rate Cycle

98 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Interest Rates Economy Federal Reserve Monetary Policy
  1. US banks are facing increased risks of deposit outflows due to systemic vulnerabilities in the banking system.
  2. Unattractive interest rates on deposits compared to treasuries have left US banks trapped without sacrificing profitability.
  3. The FED must act quickly by reducing interest rates to stabilize the banking system and prevent further harm to the economy.

IWG: A Wonderful Company at a Wonderful Price

39 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Real Estate Marketplace Growth Profitability
  1. IWG has a solid legacy business model of providing flexible workspaces and is trading at a great price, making it an attractive investment option.
  2. IWG's Worka segment is a fast-growing and profitable marketplace business, showing solid growth and expected to generate significant revenue.
  3. IWG is transitioning to a capital-light model and aims to become a major player in managed and franchised office space, with significant growth potential in the untapped market of office real estate.

Opendoor Update

39 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Earnings Interest Rates
  1. Disappointing Q4 earnings and weak Q1 2023 guidance affect Opendoor's capital base in a tough market.
  2. Changing interest rates and inflation impact Opendoor's financial outlook, causing concern.
  3. Opendoor's shrinking capital base may pose challenges in potential borrowing power and financial stability in the future.

Investment Philosophy

58 implied HN points • 11 Aug 22
  1. Invest in great companies with long growth runways at reasonable prices
  2. Emphasize on profitability 'at scale' in 5-10 years rather than immediate profits
  3. Maintain a focused portfolio of 7-15 positions for better monitoring and tracking

Sea Limited

19 implied HN points • 19 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investing Valuation E-commerce
  1. Sea Limited operates in three main segments: Digital Entertainment (Garena), E-commerce (Shopee), and Digital Financial Services (SeaMoney).
  2. Using a sum of the parts valuation approach, Sea Limited is considered undervalued, offering significant upside for long-term investors.
  3. Shopee is a dominant player in Southeast Asia's e-commerce market with a strong localized approach, mobile-first strategy, and a potential future valuation of $91 billion by 2033.

Portfolio Q4 2022

39 implied HN points • 01 Oct 22
  1. The FED's hawkish policy could change in Q4 2022 due to observed price deflation.
  2. Adjusting portfolio, positioning more conservatively but still hopeful for upside.
  3. Increased positions in Meta Platforms and Kahoot, sold out of Carvana and Amazon.

Meta Platforms

1 HN point • 21 Aug 22
  1. Meta Platforms has a strong business with a growing moat and long-term potential for investors.
  2. Meta Platforms is expected to return to significant revenue growth next year, despite current challenges.
  3. Investing in Meta Platforms is viewed favorably for long-term growth, potential for multiple expansion, and resilience against market uncertainty.

Portfolio Q3 2022

0 implied HN points • 11 Aug 22
  1. Portfolio weights only changed based on individual company performance in Q3 2022.
  2. The author tweeted about a setup they really liked and so far it seems to be proving right.
  3. The portfolio breakdown on June 30 included companies like Opendoor, Upstart, Amazon, Facebook, Lemonade, Carvana, Auto1, and Kahoot.

Navigating Shifting Tides: Portfolio Strategy for an Anticipated Interest Rate Decline in 2024

0 implied HN points • 17 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Real Estate Biotechnology
  1. The author predicts a significant decrease in interest rates by the Fed in 2024.
  2. The author has made changes to their portfolio, re-entering growth stocks, adding new positions in biotechnology, and exploiting opportunities in payment stocks and US real estate.
  3. The author also diversified their portfolio with deep value stocks, exiting German residential real estate stocks and long term US treasuries.

Portfolio Change

0 implied HN points • 18 Aug 22
  1. The investor is reallocating 5% of their portfolio, increasing their position in Opendoor from 20% to 25% due to its attractive share price and potential resilience.
  2. Opendoor reported strong Q2 earnings, with a slowdown expected in Q3 but showing resilience amidst macroeconomic challenges.
  3. The investor believes the real estate market is stabilizing, with Opendoor well-positioned with cash reserves to weather further storms.

Coming soon

0 implied HN points • 15 Jul 22
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