The hottest Investment Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Business Topics

Hidden Clauses In The Term Sheet that Every Founder Should Know | 2008 Venture Capital Market Recovery | How To Convince Investors? | VC Remote Jobs & Internships and More

Venture Curator • 219 implied HN points • 08 Sep 23
💼 Business Investment
  1. Understanding hidden clauses in term sheets is crucial for founders to avoid disputes and confusion in the future.
  2. Knowing the economic aspects of term sheets, such as valuation, investment amount, and anti-dilution, can help founders negotiate effectively with VCs.
  3. Founders and investors should remember that a term sheet is a tool for communication and does not guarantee success; a strong business does.

Credit Crash In AI Names

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 37 implied HN points • 08 Nov 25
💰 Finance Investment
  1. Credit markets are starting to reveal truths about companies that the stock market has been ignoring. This means that financial realities are becoming clearer.
  2. Companies like Nvidia, OpenAI, Microsoft, and CoreWeave are linked through investments and agreements. This creates a situation where they rely on each other too much.
  3. When companies have too many intertwined relationships, it can be risky. If one company struggles, it can create problems for the others in the network.

5M

Sriram Krishnan’s Newsletter • 216 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
💼 Business Investment
  1. Investors use frameworks like the 5M framework to categorize and assess startups.
  2. Having frameworks in place upstream makes it easier to make investment decisions downstream.
  3. Different Ms in the 5M framework are applied as startups progress from idea to product to traction.

Reaping the Whirlwind: A September 2022 Inflation Update

Musings on Markets • 699 implied HN points • 27 Sep 22
💰 Finance Investment
  1. Inflation has returned strongly in 2022 after a long period of stability. Many businesses and investors were caught off guard as they hadn't adjusted their strategies for high inflation.
  2. Rising inflation is leading to higher interest rates, which can impact the economy and market investments. This has caused a shift in investor behavior, making them more cautious.
  3. Higher inflation also makes the future of economic growth uncertain. Investors are nervous, and their outlook on the economy has worsened, affecting their investment decisions.

Getting Paid To Wait

Things I Didn't Learn in School • 117 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Investment
  1. The podcast shares a story of dealing with loss and adversity.
  2. Viewing politics through a trader's lens can offer unique insights, like considering political risks and their impact on markets.
  3. The idea of 'getting paid to wait' in relation to the Federal Reserve and potential investment implications is an interesting concept to explore further.
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Datadog, Inc. Investment Thesis

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 459 implied HN points • 14 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investment
  1. Datadog is a leading company in cloud-based monitoring, with a diverse customer base and a focus on R&D for innovation and growth.
  2. The cloud monitoring industry is dynamic, with risks like disruption from new technologies and increased competition, but Datadog's market leadership positions it well to benefit from industry growth.
  3. Datadog utilizes a 'Land and Expand' strategy, showing potential for growth as businesses continue to adopt cloud computing technology, offering opportunities for revenue expansion and market share increase.

Missionaries vs. Mercenaries

Teaching computers how to talk • 110 implied HN points • 10 Jul 25
🕹 Technology Investment
  1. OpenAI has a huge ambition to grow like Meta, needing to hit a target of $125 billion in revenue by 2029. This is a really tough goal and they have to compete aggressively.
  2. Sam Altman believes that teams driven by passion and purpose (missionaries) will outperform those just focused on making money (mercenaries). He wants to create an inspiring work culture at OpenAI.
  3. OpenAI has taken on a lot of investment, which means they need to deliver high returns quickly. This pushes them to make bold moves in the AI market.

Deep Tech Spin-Offs: Selecting the One That Could Make You a 50x Return

Space Ambition • 99 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💼 Business Investment
  1. Deep Tech startups often come from universities and focus on serious scientific advancements. These companies can tackle big problems like climate change and health issues.
  2. Investing in Deep Tech can take longer but might lead to much higher returns. While these ventures are riskier, they often attract government support, which can boost their chances of success.
  3. Successful Deep Tech spin-offs usually have solid partnerships with skilled entrepreneurs. Scientists need business co-founders to help them navigate the commercial side of their innovations.

If AI Is So Great, Someone Should Tell GDP

The Algorithmic Bridge • 222 implied HN points • 05 Mar 25
🕹 Technology Investment
  1. AI investments have been rising, but there's not much difference in overall economic growth or productivity. This makes us question if spending so much on AI is really worthwhile.
  2. Companies are unsure whether it's better to invest heavily in new AI technology or to optimize what they already have. It’s a tricky balance to strike.
  3. Despite the hype around AI, it hasn't significantly improved things like GDP or human well-being. It's clear that AI is still looking for its true role in boosting our economy.

How VCs Make High-Quality Investment Decisions? | Why Top 1% Of Founders Quit Their Startup? | Best Traits That Investors Look In Founders | VC Remote Jobs and More

Venture Curator • 199 implied HN points • 11 Sep 23
💼 Business Investment
  1. Understanding the Venture Capital Method can help founders grasp how investors evaluate startups and make high-quality investment decisions.
  2. Top 1% of founders often quit due to factors like loss of control, pressure for results, and personal finance realities, emphasizing the importance of mental health in entrepreneurship.
  3. Investors look for specific traits in founders, such as resilience, integrity, and adaptability, when deciding to fund startups, underscoring the significance of founder characteristics.

What's Holding DeFi Back From Mass Adoption

DeFi Education • 939 implied HN points • 10 May 22
🔮 Crypto Investment
  1. DeFi is too complicated for many people. Setting up wallets and understanding terms like 'yield farming' can be overwhelming.
  2. There’s a perception problem with DeFi, as some see it as risky and full of scams. Building trustworthy and useful projects can help improve this image.
  3. Many institutions are hesitant to adopt DeFi without clear regulations. They want to know how regulators will treat their activities in this space.

Down but not out

Warden Capital • 196 implied HN points • 15 May 23
💰 Finance Investment
  1. Office REITs in NYC are currently undervalued due to fears of continued impact from work from home, but the market may be overestimating the potential decline in income.
  2. Historically, NYC office space has been a strong performer, particularly in top tier buildings near major transit centers.
  3. The current market is pricing in significant income declines for NYC office REITs, but factors like reduced supply growth and potential for office to residential conversions could help stabilize the market.

Mexican Housing Crunch

Mindset Value • 196 implied HN points • 02 Aug 23
💼 Business Investment
  1. Mexico is not building enough homes, with production expected to be 50% lower than in 2013.
  2. Record home price appreciation in Mexico due to the housing shortage.
  3. Investing in Mexican homebuilders like Consorcio Ara can present opportunities for growth and capital returns.

Goodness Growth Goes Rogue

Mindset Value • 196 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
💼 Business Investment
  1. Goodness Growth partnership with Grown Rogue is improving quality and may result in over $1 million in royalty income.
  2. Grown Rogue is expanding into new states and experiencing price increases in Oregon and Michigan.
  3. Consumers are noticing improved quality of Goodness Growth products in Minnesota, signaling positive changes.

Projects don't pencil.

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 231 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💼 Business Investment
  1. When projects don't pencil, it can relate to high costs or other factors, but it doesn't always explain the larger market trends clearly. Builders often focus too narrowly on costs without considering broader economic influences.
  2. There's a constant shift in the number of projects that pencil versus those that don't, depending on market conditions. Just because many projects aren't penciling doesn't mean that new projects won't be started; it can often indicate changing circumstances.
  3. Understanding why projects aren't penciling is complex. Costs, demand, and other factors all play a role, but it's important to avoid oversimplifying the reasons behind these changes.

Weekly Wrap

Syncretica • 157 implied HN points • 21 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investment
  1. Phosphorus is a new concern due to lithium battery materials collapsing.
  2. Consider managing economic and financial entanglements with China.
  3. Energy modeling needs to focus on distribution and geopolitical shocks.

Stock Talk

Jon’s Newsletter • 79 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investment
  1. Stocks are on the rise, and analysts are adjusting their forecasts upward for the S&P 500. Staying invested long-term is advised, as it seems there’s still room for growth.
  2. If the S&P 500 performs well in January and February, historical data shows it usually continues to do well for the rest of the year. This makes the start of 2024 look promising.
  3. Amazon’s clothing sales are expected to grow significantly, potentially reaching $100 billion. This shows Amazon is successfully expanding in the fashion market, which usually has higher profit margins.

7 Thoughts About Substack's $100M Series C

Alex's Personal Blog • 98 implied HN points • 17 Jul 25
💼 Business Investment
  1. Substack has shown resilience by not giving up when venture funds didn't favor it. They managed to cut costs and eventually raised more funds, which helped them grow.
  2. The new valuation of Substack indicates high expectations for growth. However, they might struggle to maintain such growth without additional support beyond just subscription increases.
  3. Substack's move into advertising could help them grow revenue but might also change the overall user experience. It’s a balance between making money and keeping the platform enjoyable for users.

Top Links 554 Defending the Fed. Betting on investment. China in Peru & Pakistan's counterinsurgency campaign.

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investment
  1. The Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in managing the economy, and there are discussions about its actions and decisions. Understanding how the Fed works can help people make sense of economic changes.
  2. Investing is a key topic, indicating that people are looking for ways to grow their money even in uncertain times. Betting on good investments can lead to financial gain in the future.
  3. China's involvement in countries like Peru shows its global influence. Additionally, Pakistan's counterinsurgency efforts highlight ongoing challenges in maintaining security and stability.

Exchange Risk: Coinbase

DeFi Education • 859 implied HN points • 19 May 22
🔮 Crypto Investment
  1. Coinbase is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S. and was the first to go public here. This means it's a big player in the crypto market.
  2. It was founded in 2012 by Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam, who is still involved with the company as a board member.
  3. Exchange risk is something to think about with Coinbase, especially as new information comes out that could impact its operations. Staying informed is key.

The Governance Gap

DeFi Education • 299 implied HN points • 02 Jun 23
🔮 Crypto Investment
  1. In DeFi, there can be big differences between what token holders think and what really happens in a project. This disconnect is called the Governance Gap.
  2. Business disputes in DeFi can be tricky because the anonymity of participants and access to important tech can change the game. It's not like regular business where there's a clear chain of accountability.
  3. Legal issues in DeFi are complicated and often unclear. It's essential to work with lawyers who understand blockchain and decentralized organizations to navigate these challenges.

Crypto: Providing for Your Safety and Security in Emergencies

DeFi Education • 1019 implied HN points • 18 Feb 22
🔮 Crypto Investment
  1. Crypto can help you feel safer during emergencies. It’s designed to protect your money when things get tough.
  2. Recent events show that having access to your funds is really important. We should pay attention to how DeFi can help in crises.
  3. Understanding the value of DeFi is essential for the long term. It’s not just about making money, but also about security and safety.

Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
💼 Business Investment
  1. Residential investment is likely to be down year‑over‑year in 2026.
  2. Total housing starts are expected to fall slightly as multi‑family starts decline while single‑family starts remain mostly unchanged.
  3. New home sales are likely to be largely unchanged year‑over‑year, though forecasts are uncertain because three months of data are missing and units under construction remain above pre‑pandemic levels.

The Thiel-Andreessen Axis

From the New World • 102 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
💼 Business Investment
  1. Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen have different views on how businesses succeed in competitive markets. Thiel sees a winner-takes-all approach, while Andreessen focuses on timing in fast-changing tech environments.
  2. The AI industry is shifting. The idea that large companies will dominate is evolving, with new technology making it easier for startups to collect data and compete.
  3. Instead of competing against each other, Thiel and Andreessen's ideas complement each other. It's important to explore both approaches to find the best strategy for any business or industry.

Spotlight: Raffaele Mauro – GP @ Primo Space

Space Ambition • 319 implied HN points • 31 Mar 23
💼 Business Investment
  1. Investing in space technology is exciting because it combines finance, innovation, and many different industries like hardware and software. There's a lot of potential to create solutions that can improve our world.
  2. Italy is a great place for space tech startups due to its talented engineers and strong support from the government. Recent investments are creating a vibrant ecosystem that nurtures innovation in the space sector.
  3. Space tech startups face challenges in adapting to the changing market and managing cash flow. Founders need to be flexible, resourceful, and ready to work with investors who can take on risks to succeed.

The robotics company working with OpenAI to eat every warehouse worker's lunch

All-Source Intelligence Fusion • 651 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Investment
  1. Brett Adcock's humanoid robot company aims to replace human workers in warehouses with subscription-based robots that can work 20 hours a day, 7 days a week.
  2. Figure AI collaborates with OpenAI to combine robotics and AI, aiming to create 'embodied AI' by leveraging OpenAI's strengths in language models and Figure's expertise in robotics.
  3. Adcock positions Figure AI to compete with Elon Musk's humanoid robotics effort 'Optimus' and dismisses other competitors due to limitations in hardware or software capabilities.

How to Navigate Your First 21 Days in DeFi

DeFi Education • 959 implied HN points • 08 Mar 22
🔮 Crypto Investment
  1. The first step in DeFi is setting up your accounts and wallets. Make sure to use a secure wallet like Metamask and protect your privacy with a VPN.
  2. You can start using DeFi by making simple transactions like lending tokens for interest or swapping them. Using networks with lower fees, like Fantom, can help you learn without risking too much.
  3. Participating in DeFi communities can lead to surprises, like airdrops or early access to token sales. Being active and helpful in these communities can reward you with tokens and good investment opportunities.

STORIES WE TELL OURSELVES - PART II – THE MISSISSIPPI SCHEME 1716-1721 (A TALE IN FIVE CHAPTERS)

Reflections on "Going Down Tobacco Road" and Investing • 176 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
💾 History Investment
  1. The story is about the Mississippi Scheme in 1716-1721 and the madness of crowds.
  2. John Law, an economist, proposed paper money and a bank that led to a speculative frenzy.
  3. The frenzy resulted in a booming stock market, with individuals from all social classes participating in the speculation.

NYC office market part II

Warden Capital • 176 implied HN points • 05 Jun 23
💼 Business Investment
  1. Converting office spaces to residential in NYC is costly but beneficial for the market.
  2. Challenges in office conversions include high costs and zoning regulations.
  3. NYC's office market history shows past success of office to residential conversions in reducing vacancy rates.

Nebius Part 2: Cash, Optionalities, Challenges

Interconnected • 200 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💼 Business Investment
  1. Nebius has a strong cash position with around $3 billion and no debt, which helps it stand out in the competitive AI market. This cash allows the company to potentially grow without heavy financial pressure.
  2. The company's various assets, like Toloka and Avride, provide unique opportunities that could enhance Nebius's offerings and market position. Keeping some of these assets might lead to greater strategic advantages.
  3. Nebius faces challenges in a crowded market, especially in understanding how to best utilize its subsidiaries and in competing against larger cloud service providers. Its future success will depend on careful geographic and strategic planning.

The Game-Changing Clause Every Entrepreneur Should Add to Their Convertible Notes

Venture Curator • 219 implied HN points • 12 May 23
💼 Business Investment
  1. Convertible notes with caps can have hidden risks for entrepreneurs, especially when the conversion price exceeds the cap.
  2. Adding a specific clause to convertible notes can protect entrepreneurs from potential unfavorable outcomes when converting to equity.
  3. Including a clause stating a non-participating liquidation preference in a convertible note can level the playing field and provide essential protection for entrepreneurs.

Economic Calendar for the Week of June 29th

Alex's Personal Blog • 98 implied HN points • 29 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investment
  1. This week has many important economic events scheduled, like the Chicago PMI and speeches from Fed officials. These could affect how the market moves.
  2. Globally, countries like Japan and Germany are also releasing key data such as housing starts and import prices. This shows how interconnected economies are.
  3. Friday celebrates July 4th in the U.S., but there are still notable earnings and economic events happening. It's a good reminder to keep an eye on the market even during holidays.

How VCs Evaluate & Make High-Quality Investment Decisions?

Venture Curator • 179 implied HN points • 23 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investment
  1. To understand VC investment decisions, consider the Venture Capital Method, where earnings and market support determine the firm's future value.
  2. Investors aim for successful exits with specific returns and use metrics like ROI and IRR to evaluate startup potential.
  3. Negotiations between VC firms and founders often involve ownership percentages based on future valuations and return expectations.

The Art of Keiretsu

Equal Ventures • 79 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💼 Business Investment
  1. Industry transformation requires collaboration: Changing an industry's value chain involves a collective effort of like-minded visionaries and companies working together.
  2. Leveraging partnerships is key: Founders should focus on building strong partnerships within the value chain to dominate their category and create 'lines' of influence.
  3. Creating a village in the industry: Coalescing companies in a value chain can lead to achieving remarkable things collectively and surpassing individual efforts.

Economists and Price/Rent Ratios

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investment
  1. Most economists think that price/rent ratios should stay the same over time. But actually, changes in rents are what mostly drive these ratios.
  2. A big reason the housing market is often misunderstood is because economists don’t factor in how much access to mortgages has changed since 2008.
  3. Rents have been rising faster than other costs, which affects home prices. This key point is often overlooked, meaning many people are missing out on important trading opportunities.

The influencer holy grail

Simon Owens's Media Newsletter • 249 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💼 Business Investment
  1. Influencers want to create content that mixes cooking, fashion, and home decor. This mix attracts sponsors and gives a chance to sell lots of different products to followers.
  2. Local news is struggling, and a small yearly investment could help fix it. Just a bit of money could ensure every county in the US has a local news journalist.
  3. A newsletter called Sunday Long Read became popular by curating long-form articles. It shows how a focused idea can attract a loyal audience and even expand into new areas like podcasts.