The hottest Markets Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

[2025–2026] Week 12: The Money Game by 'Adam Smith'

Behavioral Value Investor • 44 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
💰 Finance Markets
  1. There are many different investing styles that can succeed, so focus on the approach that fits your natural strengths and find ways to cover or mitigate your weaknesses.
  2. Human psychology and behavioral biases strongly shape market decisions, so studying past market behavior helps you recognize recurring patterns and avoid common mistakes.
  3. Active learning and community engagement—doing assigned readings, answering questions, and discussing ideas respectfully—accelerate understanding and improve practical investing skills.

Regulatory capture is real

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Strong regulation tends to lower company valuations because it raises costs, limits growth, and shields stakeholders other than shareholders.
  2. When companies influence regulators or use the revolving door to place insiders in regulatory roles, they can turn regulation into a barrier to entry that boosts incumbents’ margins and valuations.
  3. Lack of regulation can spur rapid growth but also enables widespread fraud and abuse, highlighting the trade-off between fast innovation and consumer protection.

One Stock I'll Avoid Forever

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 30 Jan 26
💰 Finance Markets
  1. A specific S&P 500 stock is identified as one to avoid forever, with a firm stance against ever owning it.
  2. Recent developments this week made the negative view even stronger.
  3. The detailed explanation and reasons are behind a paywall and require a paid subscription to read.

Why pessimists make more money

Klement on Investing • 5 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
💰 Finance Markets
  1. People value stories more than raw data and will pay for explanations about the economy even when they already have the forecasts.
  2. Among buyers of narratives, pessimistic stories command a higher price, so pessimists can charge more for their outlooks.
  3. Different people prefer different narratives: overconfident buyers lean toward pessimistic views, motivated reasoners seek biased (optimistic or pessimistic) stories, and those focused on accuracy choose the consensus narrative.
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Top Links 757 Flipping correlations. Mapping credit scores. Saudi twitter & the secrets of the RG.

Chartbook • 472 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Treasury yields and the value of the dollar are acting differently now, where higher yields are linked to a weaker dollar.
  2. There are interesting tools that help map and understand credit scores, which could be helpful for managing finances.
  3. Saudi Twitter is revealing some hidden information about the region, suggesting social media plays a role in public discourse.

Major Signals are flashing Code Red in the Shadow Banking System

The Dollar Endgame • 718 implied HN points • 07 May 23
💰 Finance Markets
  1. The reverse repo figures reaching $2 trillion signal a serious issue in the market, showing strains on the entire banking system from massive liquidity injections.
  2. Reverse repos in the shadow banking system allow entities like MMFs to act like banks but without the same regulations, functioning in an opaque, complex, and risky world.
  3. The increased usage of the Fed's RRP facility and rising award rates indicate collateral shortages within the system, leading to concerns about the stability of MMFs and potential risks in the financial system.

The Art of Crypto Kayfabe

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 1076 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Markets
  1. The investment world can be likened to a wrestling league where different assets compete for your money. Each asset has its own story or gimmick to attract investors, just like wrestlers have unique personas.
  2. Bitcoin is often seen as a rebellious fighter trying to challenge the dominance of the US dollar, but it also plays a tricky game of pretending to be both a currency and an investment asset. This duality creates confusion about its true value and purpose.
  3. Like wrestling matches, the market can be influenced by emotions and narratives. The way assets are portrayed and the stories built around them affect how people perceive their worth and make investment decisions.

Top Links 754 Exxon's long plateau. Banana economics. Modal magic & the General of Physics.

Chartbook • 457 implied HN points • 30 May 25
💰 Finance Markets
  1. ExxonMobil is not rapidly expanding its fossil fuel production. This suggests a more stable or declining phase for the company rather than aggressive growth.
  2. The content focuses on varied topics like economics and physics, indicating a diverse range of interests and insights.
  3. The support of subscribers is essential for maintaining the platform, highlighting the importance of community in content creation.

Manchester United Finances Q1 2023/24

The Swiss Ramble • 373 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Manchester United announced financial results for Q1 2023/24, showing a pre-tax loss but increased revenue and profit on player sales.
  2. Revenue streams for Manchester United increased, particularly in match day, broadcasting, and commercial aspects.
  3. United's profit from player sales rose from £17m to £29m, attributed to the departure of certain players.

❄️🔮 +250 % pour cette action / Comment l'IA va bouleverser nos économies

Snowball • 314 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Sprouts Farmer Market, an American supermarket chain focusing on healthy products, saw its stock increase by over 250% in 3 years due to a new CEO's strategy.
  2. Artificial intelligence has the potential to disrupt consumer behavior and economies, as explored through a study by the investment fund a16z.
  3. Events like the Super Bowl can indicate economic trends and provide insights into the financial health of companies through their marketing spend.

Top Links 756 Tariff-sensitive inflation is on its way. The crisis in the diamond business. The Sound of Music and Caught by the Tides.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 01 Jun 25
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Tariff-sensitive inflation is expected to rise soon. This means that prices on certain goods may go up because of changes in tariffs.
  2. The diamond industry is facing a crisis. This could impact the availability and pricing of diamonds in the market.
  3. There are interesting discussions around cultural topics like 'The Sound of Music' and environmental issues like 'Caught by the Tides'. These may provide insights into how culture and nature intersect.

Clouded Judgement 2.6.26 - Software Is Dead...Again...For Real this Time...Maybe?

Clouded Judgement • 18 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
💼 Business Markets
  1. Public software valuations have collapsed — the median NTM revenue multiple is about 3.6x and roughly 39% of the index trades below 3x, as investors reprice the sector amid much higher uncertainty.
  2. AI agents are poised to capture much of the new incremental value on top of systems of record, effectively pushing legacy cloud software down the stack into lower-growth middleware; a small minority (maybe ~10%) of incumbents may successfully capture the agent-driven S-curve.
  3. The market reaction may be overdone in the short term because many companies still show solid results and enterprise cloud migrations continue, but real operational problems (heavy SBC, long CAC paybacks) plus greater terminal risk justify a lower, more cautious multiple environment.

26 Stocks I'm Watching For 2026: Part 1

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 53 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
💰 Finance Markets
  1. High-conviction thematic bets — especially nuclear energy, precious metals, rare earths, and junior miners — powered huge outperformance in 2025, showing the payoff from concentrated exposure to structural themes.
  2. Heading into 2026 there are five major risks to watch: a tapped-out American consumer and rising delinquencies, frothy AI-driven valuations, an erosion of the passive bid, crypto’s growing systemic ties, and geopolitical moves pushing investors into hard assets.
  3. Two market regimes are plausible next year — a liquidity-fueled bull where policymakers prop up nominal prices, or a reality-driven bear with deleveraging — so focus on relative performance, favoring international/EM and metals as hedges rather than long-duration or richly priced U.S. equities.

Software Is Fine

Software Snack Bites • 21 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26
💰 Finance Markets
  1. AI-native startups will be able to build and maintain custom software more cheaply and could disrupt incumbents, but real-world issues like trust, ongoing maintenance, and company adoption still limit immediate wholesale replacement.
  2. The recent drop in many software stocks is driven largely by market flows, hedging, and correlated selling with semiconductors and datacenter names, not a fundamental ‘end of software’ story.
  3. Top-quality software companies are relatively resilient, but founders of legacy or pre-AI products need to add clear AI-driven growth hooks to earn premium multiples as markets reprice.

Dry Powder

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Keep significant dry powder—cash or short-term investments—so you can act quickly on big opportunities or cover emergencies; if possible aim for millions, but at minimum have enough (e.g., $100k+) to avoid forced selling.
  2. US equities look richly priced by several measures (market-cap-to-GDP, Shiller PE, and heavy tech concentration), which raises the odds of low or negative returns in the years ahead.
  3. Investor complacency and low volatility mean now is a time to be defensive and plan to buy optionality during market stress (and consider writing optionality when volatility spikes), using cash to take advantage of forced-selling opportunities.

Quadrilemma

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 373 implied HN points • 06 Jan 24
💰 Finance Markets
  1. The market outlook suggests it's time to increase exposure to cyclical sectors.
  2. Understanding the market implied policy path, earnings expectations, and the Fed's reaction function is crucial for making strategic investment decisions.
  3. A healthy broadening out in the market may require certain economic conditions to be met, like unemployment rates and average hourly earnings.

Why Technocapitalism is Stronger than DEI

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 2487 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Markets
  1. Anti-woke sentiments can be divided into those focused on discrimination and those on government interference with markets.
  2. Market forces and incentives help maintain safety standards in industries like aviation, outweighing concerns over diversity initiatives.
  3. Regulations unrelated to diversity issues, like arbitrary training standards, can sometimes have more tangible and negative impacts on industries than DEI policies.

le secteur financier n'existe pas

Dan Davies - "Back of Mind" • 294 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
💰 Finance Markets
  1. The financial sector is part of the overall economic system, not a separate parasitical entity.
  2. Financial aspects are present at all levels of control and management in the market economy.
  3. Debt started as a solution but became a problem due to its signal-swamping effect.

7 Things You Should Do Before the Coming Bear Market

Behavioral Value Investor • 89 implied HN points • 17 Nov 25
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Write down your investment process so you can stick to it during a market crisis. It helps remind you of your strategies when emotions run high.
  2. Focus on long-term investments instead of short-term gains. This way, you can stay on track and not get swayed by temporary market changes.
  3. Be patient and only invest in solid companies at fair prices. This gives you room to make smart choices instead of panicking in a bear market.

Is this the Sudden Paralysis of The System?

System Change • 569 implied HN points • 26 Mar 23
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Financial tectonic plates are shifting with concerns over banks like Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse.
  2. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes and the potential consequences are under scrutiny.
  3. Geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, with signs of significant changes in the global financial system.

💥Bed Bath & Bagholders💥

PETITION • 569 implied HN points • 02 Apr 23
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Hudson Bay Capital and BBBY structured a deal involving convertible preferred stock, benefiting Hudson Bay financially.
  2. BBBY raised $225mm to address credit issues and pay vendors, but needed more liquidity for a turnaround.
  3. The deal with Hudson Bay also included warrants to buy $800mm of preferred stock, with conditions to protect Hudson Bay's downside.

Is Silver At $200 Possible?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 35 implied HN points • 05 Jan 26
💰 Finance Markets
  1. CME margin hikes can force leveraged longs to liquidate and cause sharp, temporary price drops, but that mainly transfers exposure from weak hands to deep pockets rather than fixing any physical metal shortage.
  2. Large COMEX deliveries and steady accumulation by well‑capitalized players indicate real physical demand is being removed from the tradable float, tightening supply and making large upside moves — including scenarios that point toward $100–$200 silver — plausible if those forces persist.
  3. Physical silver ownership is fundamentally different from trading paper because metal can’t be margin‑called, and geopolitical/policy trends plus valuation mean‑reversion arguments increase the odds that strategic hoarding could push silver into triple digits over time.

Top Links 772 Private equity polarizes. South Africa's growth chances dim & the Holy Alliance as "steampunk Terminator".

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Private equity is causing more division among investors. Some big firms are sticking to traditional methods, while others are trying out new strategies with insurance.
  2. South Africa's chance for economic growth is looking weaker. This raises concerns about the future for jobs and investments in the country.
  3. The topic of the 'Holy Alliance' compares it to a 'steampunk Terminator'. This likely reflects complex interactions between various powers in a rapidly changing world.

Is Dave Ramsey right?

Economic Forces • 18 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Simple rules and mental buckets exist because making perfect decisions about every dollar is costly. Heuristics cut cognitive effort and often produce good enough outcomes.
  2. Institutions like prices, brands, and cultural norms compress information and lower the mental cost of choices, letting people compare options quickly instead of doing detailed calculations.
  3. Competition and real budget constraints discipline behavior so many heuristics survive by being survivable, not perfect, but attention and memory limits can still create systematic, predictable mistakes in some contexts.

Reinventing Markets

Surfing the Future • 159 implied HN points • 05 Apr 24
💼 Business Markets
  1. The challenge is to change markets, not just corporations.
  2. Design tomorrow's markets to be humane, responsible, sustainable, and regenerative.
  3. While corporate work is important, there needs to be a shift towards influencing market dynamics for a better future.

Q&A

DeFi Education • 2318 implied HN points • 11 Jun 22
🔮 Crypto Markets
  1. Crypto is always changing, even in tough markets. It's important to stay updated on what's happening.
  2. Engaging in Q&A can help clarify doubts about DeFi and crypto. Don’t hesitate to ask questions if you're confused.
  3. Being part of a community helps share knowledge and gather different viewpoints about the markets. It's good to hear what others think.

Investing Update: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Spilled Coffee • 36 implied HN points • 03 Jan 26
💰 Finance Markets
  1. The market finished 2025 strong—S&P up about 16%, Nasdaq over 20%, and the Dow up 13%—continuing a multi‑year bull run while still seeing volatility, including a roughly 19% drawdown.
  2. Returns were concentrated and mixed across sectors and stocks. Only two mega‑cap techs beat the S&P, three sectors outperformed, and winners included communication services, semiconductors, gold miners, metals, clean energy, and silver.
  3. Active calls and stock picking paid off: a year‑end S&P forecast landed within 1% and an actively managed portfolio outperformed the S&P, showing active management can succeed but is hard to do consistently.

The Bear Cave #256

The Bear Cave • 653 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25
💰 Finance Markets
  1. There are serious concerns about AppLovin's business practices, including alleged money laundering and low-quality apps. Activist reports suggest their recent growth is questionable.
  2. TransMedics Group is facing backlash for alleged unethical practices in organ transportation. Reports indicate they may have refused life-saving procedures due to billing issues.
  3. A number of executives in various companies have resigned recently, showing instability in leadership roles. This includes multiple CFOs and the CEO of Hershey, which may impact company performance.

Stimulation Theory

Malt Liquidity • 24 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
💰 Finance Markets
  1. The public internet and algorithm-driven discourse are extremely volatile and risky, producing lots of low-signal, performative conversation that makes maintaining a public profile dangerous.
  2. A better approach is to stop publicly posting trades and performance and instead build a client-focused, scalable wealth management practice that protects proprietary thinking and relies on two-way feedback.
  3. Stimulation theory: aim for an optimal threshold of information so you can make informed decisions without getting fried by toxic constant flow, and build information pipelines that filter signal from noise.