The hottest Markets Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Daily Chartbook #267

Daily Chartbook • 1441 implied HN points • 26 Aug 23
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Pending home sales rose slightly in July, but still below pre-pandemic levels.
  2. Median home sale price increased in July due to limited housing supply.
  3. High mortgage rates are leading to a decrease in housing supply.

Daily Chartbook #248

Daily Chartbook • 1493 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Zillow expects U.S. home prices to rise 6.3% between June 2023 and June 2024.
  2. Zillow's rent index indicates a sharp decline in rent prices ahead.
  3. Resuming student loan payments in October will decrease consumer spending by about $9 billion per month.

Beating The S&P 500 Isn't As Easy As It Sounds

Spilled Coffee • 28 implied HN points • 10 Dec 25
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Consistently beating the S&P 500 is very hard; most active managers have underperformed their benchmarks in recent years.
  2. Many individual stocks and even big-tech names often trail the index — only about 37% of stocks outperformed in 2025 and only two of the Magnificent 7 beat it.
  3. It is possible for an active strategy to outperform over multiple years, but that kind of consistent outperformance is uncommon and not guaranteed.

Daily Chartbook #251

Daily Chartbook • 1441 implied HN points • 04 Aug 23
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Newly listed homes declined by 20.8% in July compared to the previous year.
  2. Active listings of homes decreased by 6.4% compared to last year.
  3. The U.S. homeowner vacancy rate dropped to 0.7% in the second quarter, the lowest since 1956.

Deal or No Deal

DeFi Education • 279 implied HN points • 02 Sep 23
🔮 Crypto Markets
  1. A new deal has been reached between DCG and Genesis, but it's not the first one; there was a similar agreement made earlier this year.
  2. The situation is complicated, with many details yet to be worked out between the parties involved.
  3. It's important to keep track of these developments, as they affect clients and the overall outcome.
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Daily Chartbook #243

Daily Chartbook • 1441 implied HN points • 25 Jul 23
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Fed balance sheet assets at lowest levels since 2021
  2. Global chip inventory at highest levels since 2001
  3. Earnings beats are underperforming misses for the first time since 2000

Top Links 607 Uncertainty in energy markets. Nike dashing for cash & the strange absence of the state.

Chartbook • 343 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💼 Business Markets
  1. Energy markets are facing a lot of uncertainty right now, making it hard to predict what will happen next. This can affect prices and availability for consumers.
  2. Nike is trying to gather cash quickly, signaling possible financial issues or a need for investment. This could impact their future decisions and strategies.
  3. The government seems to be less involved in addressing current economic challenges, leaving some questions about their role and support during these times.

Why Silver is Outperforming Gold (Again)

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 12 Dec 25
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Macro forces like Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and ongoing inflation are lifting precious metals, and silver is riding the same tailwind that’s helped gold.
  2. Silver’s role as both a monetary metal and an industrial input—used in electronics, solar panels and EVs—is creating extra real-world demand that can push its price higher than gold’s.
  3. Silver’s lower per-ounce price and higher volatility make it more attractive to retail buyers and short-term traders (unit bias), which amplifies percentage gains and helps it outpace gold in bull markets.

Daily Chartbook #170

Daily Chartbook • 1755 implied HN points • 29 Mar 23
💰 Finance Markets
  1. US home prices fell for the 7th straight month, lowest growth since Nov 2019
  2. Container traffic in US ports dropped compared to the same time last year
  3. February goods deficit increased with exports down by 3.8% and imports by 2.3%

Daily Chartbook #233

Daily Chartbook • 1441 implied HN points • 11 Jul 23
💰 Finance Markets
  1. US REITS hold $14 billion of maturing debt this year.
  2. Recession indicators like ISM new orders and yield curve spreads suggest a recession.
  3. Used-vehicle prices dropped 4.2% in June, the largest decline since the pandemic started.

Daily Chartbook #242

Daily Chartbook • 1388 implied HN points • 22 Jul 23
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Mortgage rates dropped to 6.78% from 6.96% last week.
  2. Recent growth in real average hourly earnings may lead to an increase in mortgage applications.
  3. U.S. auto loan rejections have significantly increased recently.

Inside the guts of Figma's S-1 Filing

Alex's Personal Blog • 131 implied HN points • 02 Jul 25
💼 Business Markets
  1. Figma is growing fast and has lots of international users. Most of its revenue comes from outside its home country, showing there's still room to grow.
  2. The company is profitable and has strong customer retention. Figma has improved its profits in recent years and continues to attract big accounts.
  3. Figma's IPO is important for the tech industry. A successful listing could encourage more companies to go public and bring new excitement to the market.

Interesting Take on the Figma IPO

startupdreams • 105 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
💼 Business Markets
  1. Figma's IPO was a big surprise because it opened at a much higher price than expected. The shares were initially priced at $33 but quickly jumped to over $120.
  2. Investors and the company lost a lot of potential money because the IPO was underpriced. This means they could have made billions more if they priced it correctly.
  3. There might be legal issues ahead because the underpricing upset many investors, especially big-name venture capitalists who feel they missed out on huge profits.

The Fed's Repo Defensive: Part II

Concoda • 367 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
💰 Finance Markets
  1. The Fed's Repo Facility helps provide emergency cash loans to banks when needed. This is crucial during times of financial stress to keep the market stable.
  2. Recently, there have been instances where dealers didn't fully utilize the available funds in the repo facility, indicating issues with how it's being accessed. This suggests that the process needs improvements to encourage more usage.
  3. The Fed is looking to make changes to the repo facility to fix its shortcomings and ensure dealers can quickly and efficiently obtain emergency funds when crises arise.

Top Links 549 Markets holding their breath. BBQ and shale productivity. Liberal academia & the Space Force.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Markets seem to be very tense right now. People are watching closely for changes and updates.
  2. BBQ and shale productivity are highlighted as important topics. These areas are crucial in economic discussions.
  3. There's a mention of the intersection between liberal academia and the Space Force. This could spark interesting debates and insights.

Top Links 628 Will IPOs recover? Worrying about France. The chances of a new pandemic & atomic spaghetti.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💰 Finance Markets
  1. IPOs have been quiet even though US stocks are doing well. This surprises some people.
  2. There's a concern about France and its current issues. People are paying attention to what could happen next.
  3. Discussions about new pandemics and food safety are becoming important. It's a reminder that we need to stay informed and be cautious.

Daily Chartbook #188

Daily Chartbook • 1519 implied HN points • 25 Apr 23
💰 Finance Markets
  1. US economic activity was below trend in March but recession risk is low
  2. Forecast predicts technical recession for Q3-Q4
  3. Dallas Fed manufacturing saw a significant plunge in the headline index, marking 12 consecutive months of contraction

Thinking Long-term

Splattern • 39 implied HN points • 24 May 24
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Thinking about the long-term can help you focus less on short-term numbers and more on overall growth.
  2. Investing combines both art and science, making it a unique approach to managing money.
  3. Experience in investment is valuable, and learning from seasoned investors can provide important insights.

Lowering inflation lifts all assets.

Philoinvestor • 137 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Lowering inflation can boost the value of all assets.
  2. Mixing technical analysis with other market strategies can lead to better decision-making.
  3. Watching for trends and events like Bitcoin ETF approvals can impact investment decisions.

Daily Chartbook #171

Daily Chartbook • 1572 implied HN points • 30 Mar 23
💰 Finance Markets
  1. US petroleum inventory in the past week had a significant draw.
  2. Mortgage demand is up with rates on 30Y fixed rate mortgages falling.
  3. The spread between mortgage rates and treasury yields is at a record wide gap.

Daily Chartbook #168

Daily Chartbook • 1572 implied HN points • 25 Mar 23
💰 Finance Markets
  1. The Biden administration planned to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserves at lower oil prices but hasn't yet.
  2. For-hire truck tonnage has been increasing consistently for the last three months.
  3. There is concern over a foreign central bank maxing out the FIMA repo, not covered by FX swap lines.

Down The Path(ways)

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 13 implied HN points • 07 Jan 26
💰 Finance Markets
  1. A favored sector is already making noticeable progress this year and appears to have real momentum.
  2. This piece is an early-January update, serving as an early-year check on how the sector is performing.
  3. The full write-up is behind a paywall, so you need to subscribe or sign in to read the complete analysis.

Credit Crash In AI Names

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 37 implied HN points • 08 Nov 25
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Credit markets are starting to reveal truths about companies that the stock market has been ignoring. This means that financial realities are becoming clearer.
  2. Companies like Nvidia, OpenAI, Microsoft, and CoreWeave are linked through investments and agreements. This creates a situation where they rely on each other too much.
  3. When companies have too many intertwined relationships, it can be risky. If one company struggles, it can create problems for the others in the network.

So Far, So Good

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 13 implied HN points • 05 Jan 26
💰 Finance Markets
  1. The nuclear industry is off to a decent start this year because of today’s news.
  2. Two favored nuclear names are showing good early performance after the news.
  3. The piece is behind a paywall but offers a free post and a subscription option.

Figma’s IPO range is a little light

Alex's Personal Blog • 98 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
💼 Business Markets
  1. Figma has set its IPO price range at $25 to $28 per share, which is lower than expected compared to its past valuation of $20 billion. This pricing may attract mixed reactions from investors.
  2. Anthropic and OpenAI are facing challenges in raising funds and scaling their AI efforts, showing that the competition in AI is intense and requires significant investment.
  3. Ambiq, another company preparing for an IPO, is noted for its low-power AI chips but faces uncertainties due to its exiting the Chinese market. Its pricing may be viewed as risky or promising, depending on future growth.

Investing Update: Hedge Fund Buys & Holdings

Spilled Coffee • 28 implied HN points • 22 Nov 25
💰 Finance Markets
  1. The stock market has recently seen a decline, with all major indices dropping for three weeks in a row. Even strong earnings from companies like Nvidia couldn't change the downward trend.
  2. Many popular tech stocks are significantly below their record highs, indicating market struggles. Investors are feeling cautious as market breadth has hit a two-year low.
  3. Despite the pullback, November is usually a strong month for stocks. Observing key stock levels and certain companies can provide insight into the market's next moves.

Investing Update: Where Are The IPOs?

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 13 Dec 25
💰 Finance Markets
  1. The S&P 500 hit new all-time highs and is tracking toward a 6,900 year-end target.
  2. The rally is broadening beyond AI and the Mag 7 — equal-weight S&P and sectors like small-caps, industrials, and financials are making new highs.
  3. Markets got volatile as the Nasdaq underperformed after tech earnings and rising yields, and IPO activity remains surprisingly quiet.

Older people consume differently

Klement on Investing • 4 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
💼 Business Markets
  1. People buy different things as they age: healthcare and housing spending tends to rise while education, leisure, clothing and transport fall.
  2. The pattern depends on national demographics. Similar population declines can lead to very different sector effects — Japan shows broad declines, China has healthcare holding up while leisure and transport fall sharply, and Singapore mixes increases and declines because it is ageing but still growing.
  3. This shifts the revenue outlook for companies: leisure and clothing retailers face structural declines while healthcare providers and food retailers look more resilient.

CPI 3.1%

Points And Figures • 666 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Inflation might be higher than reported due to isolated evidence like price increases in certain sectors.
  2. The government's policies are putting strong inflationary pressure on the economy, impacting various sectors and housing market.
  3. Business news sources may have biases and push narratives, so it's important to seek objective insights for informed decisions.

Investing Update: Has The Santa Rally Started?

Spilled Coffee • 16 implied HN points • 20 Dec 25
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Late-week strength in tech, especially AI-linked names, pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher while the Dow slipped but remains on a strong monthly streak.
  2. The S&P 500 is very close to the year-end target of 6,900 — it sits around 6,835 with only seven trading days left, so the target could be decided in the final week.
  3. Since November 21 there’s been a rotation into undervalued, cyclical and economically sensitive sectors, prompting speculation that the Magnificent 7 may underperform in 2026, though that shift may not be permanent.

Ultima Genomics, limited growth?

ASeq Newsletter • 7 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26
💼 Business Markets
  1. They said their installed base doubled in 2025. Since the UG100 launched in 2024, this could mean they shipped roughly the same number of instruments in 2024 and 2025.
  2. Half of the installed base is for research use and half is for clinical use, showing an even split in customer types. Their installations span North America, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific.
  3. The company did not disclose total unit counts, so it’s unclear whether placements are actually accelerating or plateauing. That lack of detail raises questions about their growth momentum and the size of their contracted revenue backlog.

Infographics: U.S. Repo Market Mechanics

Concoda • 237 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Markets
  1. The U.S. repo market is a place where banks and financial institutions borrow and lend money, often overnight.
  2. Understanding how the repo market works is important because it affects interest rates and overall market stability.
  3. Visual infographics can help simplify complex topics like the repo market, making it easier for everyone to understand.

Betting-Against-Beta is Over

Policy Tensor • 157 implied HN points • 04 Mar 23
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Betting-Against-Beta pattern has vanished and CAPM is working fine now
  2. Constraints on leverage post-GFC led to a return of risk premium
  3. Research shows revival of CAPM and the end of the betting-against-beta trade

Weird Markets = Warning Sign

Things I Didn't Learn in School • 157 implied HN points • 23 Mar 23
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Take a step back and gain perspective by reading old writings and revisiting past events.
  2. Weird market behaviors like falling bond yields during interest rate hikes and unconnected tech and bank stock movements can be warning signs.
  3. Investors are struggling to price assets amidst inflation, banking crisis, growth slowdown, global conflicts, and AI innovation.

The Outlook in Pictures

Things I Didn't Learn in School • 78 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Central banks are easing or planning to ease monetary policies, influenced by various economic factors worldwide.
  2. The rise of technology, particularly AI, is expected to boost productivity and impact asset markets, potentially leading to financial risks in the future.
  3. Inflation is under control due to labor-saving technology, weak growth in certain regions, and the US's ability to adjust energy production based on market conditions.

Payroll Preview & Return of the Policy Put

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 137 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
💰 Finance Markets
  1. The Federal Reserve may not raise rates if certain conditions are met, such as softening labor market data or 10-year Treasury rates staying near 5%.
  2. A sustainable rally in the Treasury and equity markets requires a rally in 2-year Treasuries to stabilize the banking system.
  3. To reduce damage to bank balance sheets and profitability, yield curve normalization with a starting point at 4.75% could be beneficial.

Investing in Energy

Doomberg • 267 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
💰 Finance Markets
  1. Energy markets are influenced by fundamental rules that help predict their behavior. Understanding these rules is key to making smart investments.
  2. The energy sector is currently undergoing significant changes. It's important to stay updated on these shifts to find good investment opportunities.
  3. There are four main ways to invest in energy. Each method has different risks and rewards, so it’s crucial to evaluate them carefully before deciding.