The hottest Real Estate Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top World Politics Topics

Can Vingroup Upgrade Vietnam’s Auto Industry?

The Asianometry Newsletter • 1269 implied HN points • 17 May 23
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Vingroup started as an instant noodle company and quickly diversified into real estate, healthcare, education, and more.
  2. Vingroup's venture into electric vehicles with VinFast faces big challenges in the global EV market and technical expertise.
  3. Vingroup's diversification strategy into multiple industries like electronics mirrors other successful conglomerates but comes with risks and challenges.

Down but not out

Warden Capital • 196 implied HN points • 15 May 23
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Office REITs in NYC are currently undervalued due to fears of continued impact from work from home, but the market may be overestimating the potential decline in income.
  2. Historically, NYC office space has been a strong performer, particularly in top tier buildings near major transit centers.
  3. The current market is pricing in significant income declines for NYC office REITs, but factors like reduced supply growth and potential for office to residential conversions could help stabilize the market.

Projects don't pencil.

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 231 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. When projects don't pencil, it can relate to high costs or other factors, but it doesn't always explain the larger market trends clearly. Builders often focus too narrowly on costs without considering broader economic influences.
  2. There's a constant shift in the number of projects that pencil versus those that don't, depending on market conditions. Just because many projects aren't penciling doesn't mean that new projects won't be started; it can often indicate changing circumstances.
  3. Understanding why projects aren't penciling is complex. Costs, demand, and other factors all play a role, but it's important to avoid oversimplifying the reasons behind these changes.

Wall Street Investors Enter Single Family Rentals

Arpitrage • 339 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Large institutional investors are entering the single-family rental market, which affects housing affordability. They often buy homes in high-demand areas, leading to concerns about rising house prices.
  2. These big investors have cost advantages over small landlords. They can charge lower rents due to better management and bargaining power, which can help some renters find affordable housing.
  3. The overall impact of these investors on home prices is mixed. While they might push prices up in certain markets, their presence can also increase rental availability, benefiting some renters despite potential price hikes.

Risk of Ruin Podcast

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
🎙 Podcasts Real Estate
  1. The episode breaks down what's been messing up the housing market and the reforms aimed at fixing it.
  2. Two very different homebuilders are already putting recent west-coast reforms into practice, showing policy changes are leading to real activity on the ground.
  3. A home's right is attached to the lot, and because that right is currently scarce, turning lots from single-home to multi-home rights is extremely valuable. Small design details matter, but mechanisms that multiply homes per lot act like a money printer.
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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 01 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Real house prices, after adjusting for inflation, are currently about 3% lower than their peak in 2022. This shows that while house prices have gone up nominally, they aren't as high when you consider inflation.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is significantly lower than its peak in 2022, indicating that renting may be more affordable compared to buying in some areas right now.
  3. National house prices are still higher than they were during the housing bubble, but the recent downward trend suggests it may take time for prices to recover fully or hit new highs.

In Praise of Slow Motion

Kneeling Bus • 224 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
đź•ą Technology Real Estate
  1. People are using rental cars for more than just driving, like napping or storing things. This shows a strange need for flexible space that traditional buildings don't meet.
  2. Many people spend a lot of time in parked cars, which might be surprising. It highlights a mismatch between what people need and what's available.
  3. Cheap money in the past allowed tech products to be offered at low prices, but it made basic needs like housing more expensive. This creates a gap between luxuries and essential needs.

Follow Up: Market Segmentation in Housing

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 03 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Real Estate
  1. Texas and Maine are pushing for new housing reforms that support urban development. This aims to make housing more accessible and tackle current shortages.
  2. California is making big changes to its housing laws that could allow for more building near public transit. This might help lower housing costs and increase availability.
  3. While recent laws in California are hopeful, they also introduce fees that could make building new homes more expensive. This could complicate efforts to increase affordable housing.

Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Residential investment is likely to be down year‑over‑year in 2026.
  2. Total housing starts are expected to fall slightly as multi‑family starts decline while single‑family starts remain mostly unchanged.
  3. New home sales are likely to be largely unchanged year‑over‑year, though forecasts are uncertain because three months of data are missing and units under construction remain above pre‑pandemic levels.

December ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 08 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Falling mortgage rates triggered a surge in refinances, lifting servicer refinance retention to a 3.5‑year high and making rate‑and‑term refinances the dominant activity; non‑bank servicers retained far more borrowers than banks.
  2. Mortgage performance strengthened as national delinquencies fell to about 3.34%, well below pre‑pandemic levels, although FHA loans remain an outlier with higher non‑current rates.
  3. Home prices firmed modestly with the ICE Home Price Index up 0.8% year‑over‑year in November, but gains are uneven — the Northeast and Midwest lead, the South and West lag, and single‑family homes are outperforming condos.

Expensive Cities Aren't Attractive Cities: Follow Up

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 273 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Real Estate
  1. Expensive cities are usually not as desirable as people think. They often have high rents and limited growth due to strict building rules.
  2. Increasing the number of homes over time can help lower housing costs, but this process takes years and won't cause quick drops in prices.
  3. Arguments against the YIMBY (Yes In My Backyard) movement often rely on unproven claims. In reality, cities that allow more development can remain affordable and vibrant.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 26 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index showed a small increase of 1.0% year-over-year in October, which is lower than previous months. This trend suggests that house price growth is slowing down.
  2. Many states, including Florida and Texas, have seen significant declines in house prices from their recent peaks. Punta Gorda, for example, is now one of the worst-performing cities in terms of house prices.
  3. Overall, the housing market may face further challenges, with prices possibly turning negative by the end of 2025 due to increased inventory and low sales.

NYC office market part II

Warden Capital • 176 implied HN points • 05 Jun 23
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Converting office spaces to residential in NYC is costly but beneficial for the market.
  2. Challenges in office conversions include high costs and zoning regulations.
  3. NYC's office market history shows past success of office to residential conversions in reducing vacancy rates.

Farmland & Ranching in Argentina

BowTiedMara - Geoarbitrage & Mobility Assets • 176 implied HN points • 08 May 23
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Farmland in Argentina varies in price based on region and quality, offering opportunities for investment.
  2. Argentina's agricultural landscape is diverse, with regions specializing in different crops like soy, wheat, and corn.
  3. Ranching in Argentina is significant, with a large number of farms dedicated to bovine production and potential for increased meat exports.

Real Estate, Business, & Life... Where do I find Inspiration?

PropTech Future • 176 implied HN points • 05 Sep 23
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Engage with thought leaders and content creators from various industries to find inspiration and insights.
  2. Follow key figures and newsletters in the Real Estate industry to stay updated on trends and analysis.
  3. Explore resources in areas like Venture Capital, RevOps, Business Strategy, and Product/Growth to learn and grow in your professional journey.

Rental Market Preview 2024

The Sunday Morning Post • 98 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Rents have been increasing but are expected to flatten and possibly decline in 2024 due to a surge in new rental units hitting the market.
  2. Vacancy rates are starting to increase, indicating an evolving rental market tied to new inventory.
  3. Investors should be cautious as margins are expected to get tighter with declining rents, a tough borrowing environment, and tighter lending standards.

Economists and Price/Rent Ratios

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Most economists think that price/rent ratios should stay the same over time. But actually, changes in rents are what mostly drive these ratios.
  2. A big reason the housing market is often misunderstood is because economists don’t factor in how much access to mortgages has changed since 2008.
  3. Rents have been rising faster than other costs, which affects home prices. This key point is often overlooked, meaning many people are missing out on important trading opportunities.

Economics and Business Links, 1/15

In My Tribe • 212 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have had complicated financial dealings with the Treasury. Their situation raises questions about privatization and how the accounting around their debts is handled.
  2. Eugene Fama argues that bubbles in market prices are hard to prove, suggesting that price swings are unpredictable and don't meet the classic idea of a bubble.
  3. Experts like Bill McBride believe there's concern about a housing bubble due to rising house prices, but he notes that lending standards are better now than during previous bubbles.

Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. A national report showed very small year‑over‑year gains in median existing home prices, with the Northeast barely rising, which contradicts state realtor and MLS data.
  2. This pattern mirrors a prior instance when preliminary estimates were later revised much higher, so a substantial upward revision—especially for the Northeast—seems likely in a future release.
  3. The discrepancy implies preliminary regional median price estimates can be unreliable, so local MLS/state data or later revised reports are safer for assessing true price trends.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Existing-home sales rose 0.5% in November to a 4.13 million SAAR but are about 1.0% lower than a year ago and have roughly hovered around a 4 million annual pace for the past three years.
  2. Inventory fell seasonally to 1.43 million and months-of-supply dropped to 4.2 months, yet inventory is up 7.5% year-over-year and is higher on a months-of-supply basis than before the pandemic.
  3. Median existing-home prices increased modestly, up 1.2% year-over-year to $409,200, indicating slight price gains despite flat sales and mixed supply signals.

Endgame #3

The Dollar Endgame • 119 implied HN points • 29 Nov 23
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Japan adjusted its bond yield control policy in an effort to curb interest rates, showing the delicate balance between stimulating the economy and managing debt.
  2. The United States is experiencing increases in national debt and a housing market slowdown due to rising interest rates impacting new home and car sales.
  3. Gold prices have been rising as a safe haven investment, influenced by a weakening dollar and central banks acquiring significant amounts of gold, serving as a potential indicator of future monetary debasement.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. California sales reached their highest pace since September 2022, up about 2.6% year‑over‑year on a seasonally adjusted basis, but statewide sales still sit below the 300,000‑unit benchmark and the median price fell month‑to‑month while remaining roughly flat year‑over‑year.
  2. In the local markets sampled, closed sales were down about 7.1% year‑over‑year on a not‑seasonally‑adjusted basis, and early data suggest national November existing‑home sales may be unchanged or down slightly year‑over‑year.
  3. Supply is building unevenly: active inventory was up roughly 9.8% year‑over‑year while new listings fell about 4.6%, with wide regional differences and a slowing pace of inventory growth (California’s unsold inventory index near 3.6 months).

Lawsuits Rock Realtors and What it Means for Home Sales

The Sunday Morning Post • 78 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. A series of lawsuits have shaken up the National Association of Realtors and real estate brokerage firms, potentially leading to changes in how homes are bought and sold.
  2. The lawsuits focus on inflated commissions in real estate transactions, aiming to decouple commissions between buyers' and sellers' agents, and could lead to different compensation structures in the industry.
  3. A new organization, the American Real Estate Association, has emerged to challenge the NAR's hold on the real estate market by offering more flexible commission fees and membership dues.

October 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 22 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Rents and prices are slowly increasing, but only a little. For example, national rent is up around 2.5% from last year.
  2. Home prices are expected to remain stable, with flat growth projected for 2025. This aligns with some predictions, but there are still uncertainties beneath the surface.
  3. Overall, the housing market is in a long, boring expansion phase. However, there are small fluctuations that make it hard to predict exactly what's happening.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 13 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Home sales are down this year, leading to increased inventory and pressure on prices. It means buyers have more options but might see lower prices.
  2. House prices are generally trending down, even though there's been a slight increase this year. This could be affected by changing mortgage rates and rising unemployment.
  3. Recent data shows a mix of increases in house prices, but these are lagging indicators, meaning the numbers might not reflect current market conditions.

MREIT Stocking Stuffers

Lewis Enterprises • 98 implied HN points • 22 Dec 23
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. A few Mortgage REIT Fixed-to-Float preferreds offer short-term yields
  2. Mortgage REITs mitigate credit risks through hedging but face other risks like funding costs and market volatility
  3. Preferred series of three mortgage REITs will start floating in the first half of 2024

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 25 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. National house prices have gone up by 1.3% over the past year, showing some growth but still not strong compared to the past.
  2. Different areas are seeing big differences in house prices, with some regions like the Middle Atlantic doing well while others like the Pacific are struggling.
  3. Overall, many areas are facing slower price appreciation, and high mortgage rates are making homes less affordable for buyers.

More ResiDay 2025

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 20 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Amherst's Sean Dobson believes that many good credit risks are being denied mortgages due to strict lending rules set after the 2008 crisis. He wants to see these rules loosened so that his renting customers can become homeowners.
  2. Parkland Communities is focusing on building modern, attached homes like townhomes, which can offer a good living experience while minimizing land costs and navigating zoning challenges. They aim to provide more affordable housing options in urban areas.
  3. The growth of single-family rentals is rising again, with many investors showing interest in this market. However, builders are facing challenges in meeting demand due to past economic and regulatory pressures.

May 2025 Residential Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Residential home sales are showing a slow and steady recovery. It means that the market isn't booming, but it's getting better bit by bit.
  2. The data reflects a consistent trend, suggesting a stable housing market in May 2025. This stability can be good for buyers and sellers.
  3. Overall, the housing market's current state is described as 'boring.' While it lacks excitement, a boring market can also mean less volatility.

Peak Office

Workforce Futurist by Andy Spence • 537 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Office utilization in the US is only at 21%, half the level before the pandemic, showing a significant shift towards remote and hybrid work.
  2. Despite worker demand for remote jobs, there is a notable shortage of such positions compared to on-site and hybrid roles, potentially leading to workforce dissatisfaction.
  3. The return-to-office mandates are largely driven by the need for US-based employers to optimize investments in commercial property and uphold control over employees, rather than being solely productivity-driven.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 12 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Home sales in the sampled local markets cooled in November, down about 5.7% year‑over‑year and still well below November 2019 levels; seasonally adjusted national sales look to be flat or slightly down.
  2. New listings fell about 6.1% year‑over‑year in November after rising the prior month, and remain roughly 16% below October 2019 activity.
  3. Active inventory was up about 9.8% year‑over‑year, but the change is uneven across regions — much higher in places like Denver and Phoenix and lower in areas such as Grand Rapids and San Diego.

Homeownership isn't that risky

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Homeownership is often seen as risky, but this idea is misunderstood. Many homes don't actually lose value significantly over time, and the risks are often overstated.
  2. Lower-priced homes can be a good investment, especially for families with lower incomes. The rental income from these homes can outweigh the risks involved.
  3. The financial difficulties in the post-2008 housing market were largely driven by government policies, not the inherent risks of owning a home. For many, owning a home can still be a stable investment over time.

New York City Hits the AirBNB Kill Switch

The Sunday Morning Post • 137 implied HN points • 10 Sep 23
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. New York City enforced strict restrictions on AirBNB and short-term rentals due to rising rents and limited housing supply.
  2. AirBNB, fighting against the regulations, faced lawsuits and ultimately a decline in listings in New York City.
  3. The recent enforcement of regulations in New York City marked a significant shift, with few approved permits for short-term rentals and a decrease in available AirBNBs.

Elevating Client Experience in the Commercial Real Estate Industry Requires More than Just Technology

PropTech Future • 137 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Technology is important, but not the only solution to elevate client experience in commercial real estate.
  2. Real estate owners and managers need to focus on creating a compelling reason for employees to return to offices.
  3. Investing in human-oriented initiatives and hospitality training can set new industry standards for client experience.

Commercial Real Estate is in Crisis... Where do We Go From Here?

PropTech Future • 137 implied HN points • 17 Apr 23
đź’Ľ Business Real Estate
  1. Commercial Real Estate industry is facing a crisis with low occupancy and leasing activity due to various factors like skyrocketing interest rates.
  2. Adapting to the changing needs of customers is crucial for the Commercial Real Estate industry to thrive and grow amidst challenges.
  3. The future of Commercial Real Estate may involve networks of workspaces tailored to different company needs, facilitated by technologies like booking apps and access control solutions.

Waiting for Home Prices to Fall? Don't Hold Your Breath

Home Economics • 137 implied HN points • 30 May 23
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Measuring changes in 'real' terms, accounting for inflation, makes more sense when talking about home prices.
  2. National indices may show home prices higher than a year ago, but adjusting for inflation reveals lower prices in real terms.
  3. The article emphasizes the importance of considering inflation when discussing changes in home prices.

Currency Arbitrage for Real Estate in Argentina

BowTiedMara - Geoarbitrage & Mobility Assets • 137 implied HN points • 21 Jul 23
đź’° Finance Real Estate
  1. Currency arbitrage can be utilized when buying real estate in Argentina through payment plans in USD or pesos.
  2. Investing in new construction projects in Argentina requires due diligence on the construction company's track record and the payment structures, such as Fideicomiso or SA/SRL.
  3. Non-residents can access payment plans for real estate in Argentina, leading to opportunities for profitable investments and potential currency arbitrage.