The hottest State Capacity Substack posts right now

Procurement shapes whether the state can carry out core functions. Heavy reliance on contractors can weaken government control and citizens' sense of sovereignty.
Dependence on private and foreign vendors for military and digital systems creates security and supply-chain vulnerabilities. Those dependencies push allies to seek autonomy and reduce trust.
Some contractors pursue ideological or political agendas and can become entrenched and hard to replace. Governments must weigh political alignment and rebuild in-house capacity, not just chase short-term efficiency, when deciding to outsource.

Reforms in Nigeria's petroleum sector can have a significant impact on the regional economy.
African countries face challenges in navigating the political economy of energy and climate change, impacting their energy future.
Increased Gulf cash and influence in Africa poses both investment opportunities and risks for African economies.

To get ahead in the Chinese bureaucracy you mostly need political survival skills: spot who’s rising, keep secrets, run errands, write well, hide your feelings, and take the blame.
China’s long meritocratic civil service built competence and stability, but exams teach the wrong signals for real jobs: promotions follow patrons not performance, so officials behave risk‑averse and avoid telling hard truths.
Recent structural strains — collapsing land‑sale revenue, poor local investment incentives, and intensified central inspections — make discretion costly and squash local experimentation; without more transparency, longer tenures, accountable budgets, and permissioned risk, China will struggle to adapt.

The high cost of low state capacity in Liberia impacts public services and infrastructure, highlighting the need for economic growth over only focusing on governance and corruption.
Poverty in Liberia severely limits the government's fiscal capacity, affecting its ability to provide public goods and services. The country's annual budget per capita is significantly lower than other regions, making it challenging to maintain essential services.
The US Ambassador to Liberia pointed out significant mismanagement of funds in critical sectors like healthcare and education. This points to a need for better spending of allocated funds and an improvement in service delivery to benefit the citizens.

Abundance means creating more opportunities and resources for everyone, especially those who struggle. It's about understanding that some systems create artificial scarcity, making life harder for people in need.
State and local governments can improve by focusing on their internal processes to deliver better services. Leaders should prioritize building their capacity from the ground up to meet the community's needs.
The civic tech community should be bold and proactive in improving government services. Instead of just reacting to changes, they should aim to innovate and create solutions that genuinely help people.

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A country needs a professional, independent administrative service and experienced advisers to turn leaders' decisions into reality; without that backbone, even capable leaders fail.
Modern politics tends to select for ambitious, careerist, and sycophantic actors rather than people with real managerial or policy skills, which produces poor judgement, delay, and short-term thinking.
The rise of TV, the internet, social media, and personalised political staffs has weakened institutions and pushed governments back toward rule by favourites and amateurs, making states less capable and more erratic.

In Vietnam War, US officials complained about fighting with restrictions on bombing.
Endemic violence in the Arab Middle East leads to lack of 'solutions' and need for strong state institutions.
Proposed options for dealing with Iran, unpacking the idea of going big or going home.

Politicization in government can lead to lower performance and higher corruption. When hiring focuses on political loyalty rather than skills, it results in less competent people in key roles.
State capacity, or the government's ability to perform effectively, can be weakened by politicization. This makes it harder for governments to achieve their policy goals and respond effectively to public needs.
Investing in state capacity takes time and is often not rewarded by voters. People tend to support immediate relief efforts rather than long-term improvements that strengthen government functions.