The hottest Policy Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

The "Deaths of Despair" narrative is wrong

Slow Boring • 7842 implied HN points • 10 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Health Social Trends Policy Analysis Political implications
  1. The 'Deaths of Despair' narrative linking declining life expectancy to social and political trends like right-populist politics has fundamental statistical flaws.
  2. The increase in deaths of despair is mainly due to opioid overdoses and differences in pharmaceutical marketing laws between the US and Europe.
  3. Public health outcomes differing between states can be attributed to the implementation (or lack thereof) of paternalistic health policies.

Election Countdown, 240 Days to Go: The General Election Campaign Has Begun.

Breaking the News • 564 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Foreign Policy Policy Analysis
  1. The speech by Joe Biden at the State of the Union address effectively shifted audience focus and message from previous years.
  2. The speech avoided the typical laundry-list approach, presenting a more cohesive thematic structure to deliver key points.
  3. Biden's speech reflected a strong stance against Putin and Trump, aiming to motivate and connect with his own base rather than attempting to win over Trump's supporters.

"It's just so very, very small"

Letters from Fiddler's Greene • 982 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Social Issues Progressivism Identity politics Policy Analysis
  1. The article discusses the dismissal of concerns about transgender issues by emphasizing the insignificance of certain anatomical aspects.
  2. There is a critique of progressive attitudes that avoid addressing serious issues by downplaying their significance.
  3. The text highlights the importance of taking responsibility for one's beliefs and decisions, even if they may seem small or insignificant at first glance.

HWFO Reading List, February 2024

Handwaving Freakoutery • 237 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Conspiracy Theories Policy Analysis Media influence Political Commentary
  1. The foundation of SETI uses the Drake Equation to estimate the existence of extraterrestrial life, similar to how an estimate could be made for the likelihood of someone shooting Trump.
  2. James Hankins' anti-diversity statement may signal shifts in ideologies and academic environments.
  3. Studies on topics such as car seat laws affecting fertility rates and brain structures defining self-perception shed light on various intriguing scientific findings.
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Policy analysis in the wild

Hypertext • 19 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Open societies are complex due to layers of values, norms, and rules, leading to challenges in predicting policy effects
  2. Unpredictability in open societies arises from complexity and reflexivity, showcasing the need for adaptive policy approaches
  3. Policy analysts can navigate complexity by focusing on the adjacent possible, hindering hindrances, and designing rules to address social challenges

Eating out, helping out

Logging the World • 239 implied HN points • 07 Jun 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Public Health COVID-19 Government Response Policy Analysis Preventive measures
  1. The UK's Eat Out to Help Out scheme of August 2020 is under scrutiny in connection with the COVID public inquiry.
  2. Data suggests that admissions were shrinking during the Eat Out to Help Out period, and growth started after the scheme ended.
  3. It's crucial for inquiries to consider instances when warnings were ignored but outcomes weren't catastrophic, to avoid future overreactions.

Was the Race to Replace George Santos a Bellwether?

Political Currents by Ross Barkan • 6 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Democratic Party Joe Biden Policy Analysis
  1. Democrat Tom Suozzi won the race to replace George Santos comfortably, surprising some with the margin of victory.
  2. The outcome of one special election in February may not accurately predict broader political trends or implications.
  3. The analysis and speculation surrounding Suozzi's victory in the House race should be approached with caution due to the unique circumstances of the election.

Tsunami invariant

Model Thinking • 39 implied HN points • 18 Dec 22
🔬 Science Research Economics Immigration Policy Analysis
  1. This post explores how factors like remittances, capital stocks, and immigrant effects on productivity impact the population trajectory under open borders.
  2. The analysis shows that the case for open borders remains robust even with substantial negative impacts on productivity, suggesting significant population growth under various scenarios.
  3. Limitations of the model include the lack of consideration for certain effects on total factor productivity in origin countries and the absence of estimates on global welfare and utility changes due to migration.

Term time

Model Thinking • 39 implied HN points • 20 Nov 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Elections Government spending Accountability
  1. Politicians prioritize short-term gains for re-election over long-term investments due to the nature of regular elections.
  2. The optimal rate of investment for politicians is influenced by factors like capital elasticity and depreciation rates.
  3. Increasing political term lengths from 5 to 7 years could potentially boost real incomes significantly over a long timeframe, showing the impact of term lengths on economic outcomes.

A benefit greater yet

Model Thinking • 39 implied HN points • 06 Nov 22
💰 Finance Economics Population Government spending Healthcare Policy Analysis
  1. Optimal population subsidies can differ greatly based on the discount rate assumption, with the model showing notable variations between a 5% and a 7% discount rate.
  2. There's evidence of a non-linear relationship between fertility rates and income, with high-income groups having more children in some cases, impacting population growth predictions.
  3. The marginal benefit of a birth is suggested to increase rapidly with population growth and discounts rates, leading to implications concerning government spending priorities and possible optimization opportunities.

#15 - Altman, Jinping, Biden, and O

Navigating AI Risks • 0 implied HN points • 22 Nov 23
🕹 Technology AI Governance Government regulations Policy Analysis Global Cooperation
  1. OpenAI faced turmoil with CEO Sam Altman's firing, highlighting governance challenges and lack of transparency
  2. China is already regulating AI with new laws, ethics reviews, and safety measures to manage AI risks
  3. The White House tightened AI oversight with an executive order requiring companies to share safety test results with the government

Democracy of evidence

Hypertext • 0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🚌 Education Policy Analysis Econometrics Social Sciences Public Policy
  1. Econometrics helps to reveal truths in small-scale matters, but applying them to large societal issues requires many assumptions. Democratizing knowledge generation can be a social game-changer by putting economic tools in the hands of more people.
  2. Academics often focus on big questions about human nature, but the implementation of policies by governmental and social organizations could benefit from more hands-on and practical application of econometric tools to measure the impact of these policies.
  3. Government and social institutions should embrace a more incremental approach, like carpenters, making gradual improvements as opposed to sweeping changes. There's potential for significant social change when institutions start questioning and measuring the effectiveness of their own operations.