The hottest Policy Analysis Substack posts right now

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Top U.S. Politics Topics

What's Behind Trump's War on Science?

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 731 implied HN points • 12 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Political Commentary Populism
  1. The Trump administration cut science funding significantly, with research funding dropping drastically in many fields. This has created a crisis for the National Science Foundation.
  2. The slow distribution of research funds is linked to both incompetence and a focus on politically favored themes. This shows a lack of value for basic research.
  3. Overall, this issue reflects broader problems with populism, where anger can lead to harm without clear targets, often causing more chaos than resolution.

The Evidence That A Million Americans Died Of COVID

Astral Codex Ten • 32210 implied HN points • 22 May 25
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Pandemic response Statistics Healthcare Policy Analysis
  1. Many people are unsure if the 1.2 million COVID deaths are accurate, with some believing these deaths are linked to other causes rather than COVID itself.
  2. The data shows that total deaths during the pandemic were higher than usual, which supports the idea that many deaths were directly caused by COVID.
  3. Some argue that they don’t personally know anyone who died from COVID, but with a large population, it makes sense that not everyone would know someone affected.

The Other COVID Reckoning

Astral Codex Ten • 30214 implied HN points • 21 May 25
🏥 Health Politics Public Health COVID-19 Mortality Policy Analysis Social Impact
  1. COVID-19 has caused an incredible number of deaths, but many people have stopped talking about them, even though the toll is higher than many major historical events.
  2. The reasons for this neglect may include that the deceased were often older people, and there aren't public stories shared by those who lost loved ones, making the impact feel less personal.
  3. While there were many debates about COVID responses, the focus should be on remembering those who lost their lives, as it can help us appreciate the seriousness of the situation.

The Paris AI Anti-Safety Summit

Don't Worry About the Vase • 4390 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
🕹 Technology AI safety International relations Policy Analysis Regulation Public Perception
  1. The recent Paris AI Summit shifted focus away from safety and risk management, favoring economic opportunities instead. Many leaders downplayed potential dangers of advanced AI.
  2. International cooperation on AI safety has weakened, with past agreements being ignored. This leaves little room for developing effective safety regulations as AI technologies rapidly evolve.
  3. The emphasis on voluntary commitments from companies may not be enough to ensure safety. Experts believe a more structured regulatory framework is needed to address serious risks associated with AI.

At least five interesting things: Red Tape edition (#57)

Noahpinion • 15706 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Regulation Tariffs Policy Analysis Economic issues
  1. Environmental review laws like NEPA slow down development and can lead to unnecessary delays and high costs, affecting infrastructure projects.
  2. Jimmy Carter's legacy of deregulation is remembered as a way to navigate some current regulatory barriers and foster economic growth.
  3. Targeted tariffs are more effective than broad tariffs in managing imports and trade deficits, and there's new evidence that the Trump administration is shifting towards this approach.
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Francis Collins retires from the NIH

Vinay Prasad's Observations and Thoughts • 128 implied HN points • 03 Mar 25
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Biotechnology Policy Analysis Epidemiology Research Ethics
  1. Francis Collins helped find the cystic fibrosis gene, which saved many lives. However, his support for gain of function research and certain policies during the pandemic raised concerns.
  2. Many believe that the impact of Collins' leadership during the pandemic was negative, leading to loss of trust in science and vaccination. His actions may have contributed to millions of deaths and economic losses.
  3. Collins did not explore if the way the NIH gives out grant money was effective. Despite advancements in genetics, many common health issues remain largely unresolved.

Biden's tarnished industrial legacy

Noahpinion • 15529 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Industrial Policy Political Legacy
  1. Biden's industrial policies, like the CHIPS Act, created a boom in U.S. manufacturing, which is good for the economy. These programs encouraged private companies to invest in factories and technology.
  2. Despite some successes, Biden's approach had major flaws, like listening too much to special interest groups and not fixing regulatory issues that slow down government action. These problems could hinder the future of manufacturing in America.
  3. Blocking Nippon Steel's attempt to buy U.S. Steel seemed like a protective move, but it upset an important ally, Japan, and could hurt the U.S. economy by stalling investments and modernization that the deal would have brought.

Woke Elvis Resigns

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 11425 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Events Government Policy Analysis Leadership Public Opinion
  1. Justin Trudeau resigned as Canadian Prime Minister after his approval ratings dropped significantly during his time in office. It marks a big change for someone who was once very popular.
  2. His story serves as a reminder for men about the importance of maintaining respect and connection with the people they lead.
  3. Trudeau's decline in popularity and embarrassing fall from grace will likely be talked about for generations as a cautionary tale.

DOGE Mismanagement Principles

Can We Still Govern? • 569 implied HN points • 16 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Efficiency Policy Analysis Employee Rights
  1. Firing key employees can hurt government functions. Specialists who handle vital tasks, like managing nuclear arsenals, should not be let go without careful thought.
  2. Treating employees poorly leads to distrust and resentment. If workers feel insecure or undervalued, they won’t be motivated to return if hired back.
  3. Cutting agencies that collect taxes can weaken government. Reducing the IRS staff, for example, may benefit wealthy individuals while harming the government's ability to function effectively.

How Good Are American Roads?

Construction Physics • 25889 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Infrastructure Transportation Policy Analysis Urban Development Public Spending
  1. US interstate roads are generally in good shape, with over 80% rated as good or very good. However, urban roads are often much worse, with many in poor condition.
  2. While American roads have decent quality, particularly interstates, there is limited data to compare them directly with roads in other countries, making it hard to draw firm conclusions.
  3. Roads in major US cities can be quite bad, especially in places like California, indicating a need for better maintenance and improvement in urban infrastructure.

Why Trump killed congestion pricing

Silver Bulletin • 386 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Transportation Political Economy Urban planning Public Opinion
  1. Congestion pricing in New York has made commuting faster for many people, saving them time despite the added fees. Some drivers find it worth paying extra to avoid long traffic delays.
  2. Not everyone benefits equally from congestion pricing; it can be a burden for lower-income commuters who rely on personal vehicles. Still, it helps reduce traffic and pollution in the city.
  3. The policy has mixed effects on local businesses. While it may deter some visitors, faster travel within the city could encourage local spending from commuters using public transit.

Top Links 642 Debunking US exceptionalism. The global relationship recession. Game engines & Adorno's precarious happiness.

Chartbook • 658 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Historical context Media Relations Public Opinion
  1. The idea of American exceptionalism is being questioned and challenged more than ever. Many are beginning to see that America's issues are similar to those faced by other countries.
  2. There is a current global relationship recession, meaning that countries and nations are struggling to connect and cooperate like before. This can lead to more isolation and tension worldwide.
  3. Game engines are being discussed in the context of philosophical ideas, particularly about happiness. It's interesting to see how technology and deeper thoughts about life can intersect.

The educated professional class is out of touch with America

Noahpinion • 28294 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Voter Demographics Policy Analysis
  1. The educated professional class in America is growing more disconnected from the values and beliefs of the rest of the population. This split affects political views and voting patterns.
  2. Education levels in America have become polarized, with the non-college-educated voters increasingly leaning towards the Republican party. This creates challenges for Democrats, who mostly appeal to college-educated individuals.
  3. Many Americans are reconsidering the value of a college education due to rising costs and minimal benefits. If colleges want to improve enrollment, they need to make their programs more affordable and relevant.

What research tells us about politicization and state capacity

Can We Still Govern? • 181 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Civil Service Policy Analysis
  1. Politicization in government can lead to lower performance and higher corruption. When hiring focuses on political loyalty rather than skills, it results in less competent people in key roles.
  2. State capacity, or the government's ability to perform effectively, can be weakened by politicization. This makes it harder for governments to achieve their policy goals and respond effectively to public needs.
  3. Investing in state capacity takes time and is often not rewarded by voters. People tend to support immediate relief efforts rather than long-term improvements that strengthen government functions.

Caveat Emptor

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2318 implied HN points • 03 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Foreign Policy Political parties Policy Analysis
  1. Iran is strengthening its military capabilities and could soon have nuclear weapons, posing a threat to Israel and the Middle East.
  2. The strike by dockworkers during a hurricane highlights issues in leadership during crises, with politicians taking sides rather than focusing on helping people.
  3. There's concern about the growing power of the government and its impact on individual freedoms, with calls for a more conservative approach to governance.

Final Tally for Biden-Era Improper Payments? $925 BILLION

OpenTheBooks Substack • 405 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government spending Policy Analysis Fraud prevention Economic Impact Bureaucracy
  1. The total amount of improper payments during Biden's presidency is reported to be $925 billion. This means a lot of money was incorrectly sent out by the government.
  2. In just one year, federal agencies noted almost $162 billion in improper payments. This issue has been growing and was particularly bad during the COVID pandemic.
  3. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services had the highest amount of waste, totaling $87 billion. Also, many payments were sent to people who have died, showing problems with tracking who should receive money.

Four years of Noahpinion

Noahpinion • 16882 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Policy Analysis International relations Social Issues
  1. The return of Trump as president signals a big change in American politics. Progressivism seems to be struggling, and many Democrats need to rethink their strategies to reconnect with voters.
  2. Global liberalism is facing serious challenges as countries like China and Russia assert more power. The cooperation among democracies to combat authoritarianism seems to be fading.
  3. Advances in technology, especially in AI and industrial policy, hold promise for the future. While concerns about job loss due to AI exist, there are reasons to be optimistic about how technology can enhance human workers' capabilities.

Americans hate inflation more than they hate unemployment

Noahpinion • 21882 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Economics Public Opinion Policy Analysis Political strategy
  1. Inflation annoys people more than unemployment. When prices go up, it feels like everyone's money is worth less, making people unhappy.
  2. Many voters care about how the economy is doing, especially inflation. This has been shown in surveys where people mention inflation as a big concern.
  3. Democratic strategies may need to change. Focusing too much on full employment without worrying about inflation could lead to big political losses.

Collective Psychosis in Vermont

Disaffected Newsletter • 2457 implied HN points • 06 Sep 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Health Policy Analysis Social Issues Cultural Commentary Local news
  1. Oktoberfest in Burlington was canceled due to health concerns about Eastern Equine Encephalitis, which affects mosquitoes in the area.
  2. Despite the low number of cases, local officials advised residents to avoid outdoor activities during certain hours to prevent infections.
  3. The response reflects a larger trend of reacting emotionally to health risks, leading to broader community actions that some see as extreme or unnecessary.

Climate Science Whiplash

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 2424 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate change Weather Patterns Environmental Science Policy Analysis Media influence
  1. Climate science can seem confusing and contradictory, leading to what people call 'climate science whiplash.' Different studies can say opposite things, making it hard to know what to believe.
  2. When extreme weather happens, people easily find studies that support their views, often ignoring the bigger picture. This selective use of science is like picking only the pieces of a puzzle that fit into your view.
  3. It's important to trust rigorous assessments from credible sources like the IPCC. They provide a clearer picture of climate change effects, helping us understand what we should really worry about.

Welcome To The Fauci/Pfizer Matrix: COVID Vaccines Directly Cause Long-Lasting Side Effects, Per New Study

Unmasked • 92 implied HN points • 27 Feb 25
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Vaccination Misinformation Policy Analysis COVID-19
  1. There was a lot of misinformation about COVID vaccines when they came out. Experts made claims that were not supported by facts, leading to confusion about their effectiveness.
  2. Key figures like Dr. Fauci and Rochelle Walensky made statements that turned out to be incorrect, which worsened public trust and guided harmful policies.
  3. Recent research suggests that the long-term side effects of vaccines are more significant than previously acknowledged, highlighting ongoing issues around vaccine communication and transparency.

Dr. Atlas and the Crucible of Open Dialogue

COVID Reason • 495 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🏥 Health Politics Censorship Public Health Policy Analysis Academic Freedom Pandemic response
  1. Government lockdowns during the pandemic didn't work as intended and caused more harm than good, affecting people's mental health and education.
  2. Censorship stifled important discussions and alternative viewpoints, which are essential for scientific progress.
  3. Academic institutions didn't uphold free expression and debate, which is key for critical thinking and finding the truth.

Another PRO-MASK Study Debunked

COVID Reason • 733 implied HN points • 07 Oct 24
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Medical Research Policy Analysis Epidemiology Health Education
  1. Recent studies show that school mask mandates may not significantly reduce COVID-19 transmission. It's important to look closely at how studies are conducted to understand their true effectiveness.
  2. Researchers highlight that using observational data can lead to misleading conclusions about mask mandates. Different methods could give us clearer answers about their impact.
  3. Future public health decisions about masks should rely on strong evidence from well-designed studies. This will help build trust and ensure that interventions are truly beneficial.

Why Policy Causality Matters

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1442 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Disaster Management Climate Policy Risk Assessment
  1. Understanding policy causality is crucial for making effective decisions, especially in contexts like disaster risk reduction. It's important to know how actions lead to specific outcomes.
  2. Distinguishing between different types of causality, like proximal and distal, helps identify what actions can prevent future disasters. Not all causes can be controlled, but some can be influenced through policy.
  3. Communicating about causality can be tricky because narratives and models may mislead people. It's key to ground discussions in solid evidence to avoid bad policy choices.

Are we entering a Conservative Golden Age?

Silver Bulletin • 1202 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political trends Voting Patterns Public Opinion Policy Analysis Cultural Shifts
  1. A Conservative Golden Age might be emerging, as recent policies and leadership are leaning strongly to the right. This could mean significant changes in areas like immigration and social rights.
  2. Public opinion often reacts against a government seen as too conservative or too liberal. If Trump’s policies are perceived as overreaching, it may lead to a shift back to more liberal governance in future elections.
  3. Historically, American politics swings between conservative and liberal eras, influenced by major crises. This suggests uncertainty about whether we're starting a new conservative era or if the current situation is temporary.

The Saturday Read: Ranks of the state

The Saturday Read • 379 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Governance Political parties Public Opinion Policy Analysis
  1. Keir Starmer's Labour government has faced challenges and criticism in its first 100 days. Many people feel disappointed and distrustful of politicians, leading to low voter turnout.
  2. Morgan McSweeney, the new chief of staff, is expected to bring fresh ideas and help create a clearer direction for the government, particularly after recent scandals.
  3. Rachel Reeves's upcoming Budget is expected to be crucial for Labour's future. It could reshape the party's political strategy and address economic issues facing the country.

Indirect Costs at NIH . . .

The Good Science Project • 297 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Government regulations Research Funding
  1. The NIH has announced a big change, lowering the indirect cost rate for all grants to 15%. This move has raised many eyebrows because it seems to go against some existing laws.
  2. Congress had previously banned the NIH from changing how indirect costs are calculated. This makes the new policy potentially illegal and could lead to court challenges.
  3. To really address indirect costs properly, there needs to be a focus on reducing the red tape and regulations that universities face. This could help create more efficient funding and research processes.

Everyone Is Wrong About the President's Economic Impact

Sumit's Investment Takes • 99 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Inflation Unemployment Policy Analysis
  1. There isn't just one number that shows how good or bad the economy is. You can look at things like unemployment, inflation, and GDP, but they all tell different stories.
  2. The president's actions don’t usually have an immediate effect on the economy. Many factors that affect the economy are outside their control, like market trends and global events.
  3. To really understand a president's impact on the economy, you should look at long-term policies instead of short-term data. Also, things like immigration and international relations can play a big role.

Dingus of the week: Gavin Newsom

Men Yell at Me • 408 implied HN points • 16 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Commentary Elections Policy Analysis Public Opinion Political Figures
  1. Gavin Newsom is a politician who started as a Democrat but is now acting more like a Republican. He seems focused on his own ambitions rather than the needs of the people.
  2. His podcast is trying to attract younger voters, but his methods might not resonate, especially with marginalized groups. Just changing his talking points won’t change his actions.
  3. People are tired of politicians who follow trends instead of standing firm on important issues. Newsom's shift towards right-wing ideas has led some to feel betrayed by his leadership.

Fixing Universities

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1413 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🚌 Education Higher education Policy Analysis Public Trust Academic Freedom
  1. Universities need to focus more on their main jobs: teaching and research. It's important for them to prioritize these roles over sports and other activities.
  2. They should take institutional neutrality seriously, meaning universities shouldn't push political views. Instead, they should let students and faculty discuss and debate these issues freely.
  3. Expanding access to education for all kinds of students is crucial. Universities should aim to serve everyone in society and help improve American democracy.

National IQs Are Valid

Cremieux Recueil • 809 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Social Issues
  1. National IQ estimates can be reliable and realistic even if they seem low, as they reflect a range of factors, including cultural and environmental influences.
  2. It's important to understand that an IQ score does not solely define someone’s abilities, especially in different cultural contexts where adaptive functioning matters more.
  3. Critics of national IQ data often misunderstand how mental retardation is defined and how IQ tests measure intelligence, leading to flawed arguments against the use of national IQ data.

Thoughts on Trump Ending Affirmative Action in Contracting

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 4925 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Political theory Civil Rights Political Activism Government regulations
  1. It's possible to change policy even if you aren't famous or super connected. By bringing important issues to people's attention and making a strong argument, you can influence the conversation around those policies.
  2. Timing is key in politics. Being vocal about an issue when it matters most can lead to real changes. If people are focused on something important, it's a good time to suggest new ideas.
  3. Conservatives have started realizing the need to fight against 'wokeness' and its influence in government and business. The recent action to end certain affirmative action policies shows a significant shift in their approach.

'You're not the boss of me'

The Crucial Years • 2252 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Climate Climate Policy Public Opinion Elections Environmental Activism Policy Analysis
  1. The rejection of climate change by influential leaders is alarming. It shows a lack of understanding of the scientific evidence that clearly indicates global warming and its disastrous effects.
  2. The fossil fuel industry is a powerful force against climate action. Many politicians are siding with their interests, making it tough to push for renewable energy solutions.
  3. We need to appeal to people's self-interest in promoting clean energy. Highlighting that solar and wind power are cheaper and more reliable can help shift public opinion towards adopting these technologies.

Measuring Political Preferences in AI Systems – An Integrative Approach

Rozado’s Visual Analytics • 183 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Bias AI Ethics Language Models Policy Analysis
  1. Large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT may show political biases, but measuring these biases can be complicated. The biases could be more visible in detailed AI-generated text rather than in straightforward responses.
  2. Different types of LLMs exist, like base models that work from scratch and conversational models that are fine-tuned to respond well to users. These models often lean towards left-leaning language when generating text.
  3. By using a combination of methods to check for political bias in AI systems, researchers found that most conversational LLMs lean left, but some models are less biased. Understanding AI biases is essential for improving these systems.

Top Links 597 Costless disinflation. The world's undersea cable system. South Sudan's calvary & Jarmush takes us on a permanent vacation.

Chartbook • 715 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics Market Trends Investment Global Trade Policy Analysis
  1. Costless disinflation is interesting because it suggests ways to reduce inflation without any financial costs. This idea could really impact how economies manage price stability.
  2. Undersea cables are crucial for global internet connections, showing just how interconnected we all are. These cables help transmit information across the world quickly.
  3. South Sudan's cavalry highlights unique aspects of its culture and history. It also points to how different lifestyles and traditions exist around the globe.

Some basic math about cutting government

Can We Still Govern? • 1377 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Public Sentiment
  1. Cutting federal employees won't save as much money as some politicians claim. Even a big cut might only save a small portion of overall government spending.
  2. There's a belief that the government has too many workers, but in fact, the current number of federal employees is low compared to the overall population and their skills are often outdated.
  3. Many government programs are popular and provide valuable services. Cutting them could lead to public backlash, as people generally support these services even if they say they want smaller government.

ONE VIDEO: Donald Trump & the Very Large Faucet on the U.S.-Canadian Border

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 345 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Commentary Elections Policy Analysis Media Critique Political Satire
  1. Donald Trump's comments show he has a unique view on how water resources work, particularly regarding water flowing from Canada to California. Many people around him seem to lack the willingness to correct his misunderstandings.
  2. He claimed that turning a 'faucet' could solve California's water issues and that this would cause the state to thrive, ignoring the complexities of water management and environmental concerns.
  3. Trump's statements indicate he believes he could improve the agricultural situation in California significantly, but his ideas seem unrealistic and overlook important facts about irrigation and ecology.

Take the Under

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1334 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate change Population Growth Economic projections Policy Analysis Sustainability
  1. Recent projections show that the global population could peak earlier and lower than previously thought, which could lead to reduced carbon emissions.
  2. Using more realistic estimates for population and economic growth can suggest that climate change might be less severe than some models predict.
  3. Climate policies should be based on updated data and current realities, not outdated assumptions, to effectively address climate change.

The Indian-American century

Wrong Side of History • 246 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics International relations Policy Analysis Cultural impact Legal issues
  1. Ultrasound technology was first used in the 1950s for checking fetal health, but it led to sex-selective abortions in countries like India and China. This happened because many families preferred sons over daughters, which affected the natural balance of genders.
  2. The sex ratio at birth has been heavily skewed in India, with a notable rise in male births compared to females, reaching an alarming peak of 111 males for every 100 females in 2010. Despite legal bans and public campaigns against it, the issue persisted for years.
  3. Although recent years have shown some improvement in the gender ratio at birth, there are still millions more men than women in younger generations. For example, among Indian-born Sikhs, the ratio is shockingly high at 130 males for every 100 females.