The hottest Policy Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top U.S. Politics Topics

Caveat Emptor

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2318 implied HN points • 03 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Iran is strengthening its military capabilities and could soon have nuclear weapons, posing a threat to Israel and the Middle East.
  2. The strike by dockworkers during a hurricane highlights issues in leadership during crises, with politicians taking sides rather than focusing on helping people.
  3. There's concern about the growing power of the government and its impact on individual freedoms, with calls for a more conservative approach to governance.

Collective Psychosis in Vermont

Disaffected Newsletter • 2457 implied HN points • 06 Sep 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Oktoberfest in Burlington was canceled due to health concerns about Eastern Equine Encephalitis, which affects mosquitoes in the area.
  2. Despite the low number of cases, local officials advised residents to avoid outdoor activities during certain hours to prevent infections.
  3. The response reflects a larger trend of reacting emotionally to health risks, leading to broader community actions that some see as extreme or unnecessary.

Dr. Atlas and the Crucible of Open Dialogue

COVID Reason • 495 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🏥 Health Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Government lockdowns during the pandemic didn't work as intended and caused more harm than good, affecting people's mental health and education.
  2. Censorship stifled important discussions and alternative viewpoints, which are essential for scientific progress.
  3. Academic institutions didn't uphold free expression and debate, which is key for critical thinking and finding the truth.

Another PRO-MASK Study Debunked

COVID Reason • 733 implied HN points • 07 Oct 24
🏥 Health Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Recent studies show that school mask mandates may not significantly reduce COVID-19 transmission. It's important to look closely at how studies are conducted to understand their true effectiveness.
  2. Researchers highlight that using observational data can lead to misleading conclusions about mask mandates. Different methods could give us clearer answers about their impact.
  3. Future public health decisions about masks should rely on strong evidence from well-designed studies. This will help build trust and ensure that interventions are truly beneficial.

The Saturday Read: Ranks of the state

The Saturday Read • 379 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Keir Starmer's Labour government has faced challenges and criticism in its first 100 days. Many people feel disappointed and distrustful of politicians, leading to low voter turnout.
  2. Morgan McSweeney, the new chief of staff, is expected to bring fresh ideas and help create a clearer direction for the government, particularly after recent scandals.
  3. Rachel Reeves's upcoming Budget is expected to be crucial for Labour's future. It could reshape the party's political strategy and address economic issues facing the country.
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Moderation is good for its own sake

Noahpinion • 20706 implied HN points • 20 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Moderate candidates generally perform better in elections than extreme ones. This means that voters often prefer someone who is balanced rather than very left or right.
  2. Moderation in policy tends to yield better results for people because it involves less risk and more careful consideration. Big changes can lead to uncertainty that may harm citizens.
  3. While winning elections is crucial, it's also important for politicians to advocate for policies that genuinely benefit the people they represent, rather than just focusing on winning votes.

Awesome Weekend Reading

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 942 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. THB Insider is back with a new roundup that curates a wide range of recent policy and research items.
  2. Policymakers on both sides of the aisle publicly cited the newsletter’s coverage of a major Nature retraction, showing it has real influence in policy discussions.
  3. Full access is gated behind a subscription, though a free post is offered to let readers continue reading.

Everyone Is Wrong About the President's Economic Impact

Sumit's Investment Takes • 99 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. There isn't just one number that shows how good or bad the economy is. You can look at things like unemployment, inflation, and GDP, but they all tell different stories.
  2. The president's actions don’t usually have an immediate effect on the economy. Many factors that affect the economy are outside their control, like market trends and global events.
  3. To really understand a president's impact on the economy, you should look at long-term policies instead of short-term data. Also, things like immigration and international relations can play a big role.

The Evidence That A Million Americans Died Of COVID

Astral Codex Ten • 32210 implied HN points • 22 May 25
🏥 Health Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Many people are unsure if the 1.2 million COVID deaths are accurate, with some believing these deaths are linked to other causes rather than COVID itself.
  2. The data shows that total deaths during the pandemic were higher than usual, which supports the idea that many deaths were directly caused by COVID.
  3. Some argue that they don’t personally know anyone who died from COVID, but with a large population, it makes sense that not everyone would know someone affected.

The Other COVID Reckoning

Astral Codex Ten • 30214 implied HN points • 21 May 25
🏥 Health Politics Policy Analysis
  1. COVID-19 has caused an incredible number of deaths, but many people have stopped talking about them, even though the toll is higher than many major historical events.
  2. The reasons for this neglect may include that the deceased were often older people, and there aren't public stories shared by those who lost loved ones, making the impact feel less personal.
  3. While there were many debates about COVID responses, the focus should be on remembering those who lost their lives, as it can help us appreciate the seriousness of the situation.

Can a Transformer “Learn” Economic Relationships?

Arpitrage • 2194 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
🕹 Technology Policy Analysis
  1. Transformer-based models can learn the dynamics of a New Keynesian economy from simulated data and produce accurate out-of-sample forecasts, outperforming simple reduced-form benchmarks.
  2. They often predict the direction and rough magnitude of policy shock responses, but misestimate impulse-response dynamics and can exhibit overshooting, so they do not fully recover the true causal structure.
  3. These advances weaken the practical bite of the Lucas critique by improving prediction, but they do not eliminate the need for structural models for causal interpretation, welfare analysis, and interpretability; transformer methods are a promising complementary tool.

Progressives take their best shot at Abundance (but it falls short)

Noahpinion • 14588 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Critics of the book 'Abundance' often haven't read it and misunderstand its ideas. Instead of addressing the arguments, they focus on insulting the authors.
  2. The backlash against 'Abundance' seems to stem from its author Ezra Klein's influence rather than the book's actual content. Some progressives feel threatened by a shift in focus towards empowering the government.
  3. One critic, Sandeep Vaheesan, does engage with the book but misinterprets its core arguments. He points out that while 'Abundance' suggests empowering the government, it doesn't clearly outline the specific actions needed to achieve that.

The educated professional class is out of touch with America

Noahpinion • 28294 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. The educated professional class in America is growing more disconnected from the values and beliefs of the rest of the population. This split affects political views and voting patterns.
  2. Education levels in America have become polarized, with the non-college-educated voters increasingly leaning towards the Republican party. This creates challenges for Democrats, who mostly appeal to college-educated individuals.
  3. Many Americans are reconsidering the value of a college education due to rising costs and minimal benefits. If colleges want to improve enrollment, they need to make their programs more affordable and relevant.

How Good Are American Roads?

Construction Physics • 25889 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. US interstate roads are generally in good shape, with over 80% rated as good or very good. However, urban roads are often much worse, with many in poor condition.
  2. While American roads have decent quality, particularly interstates, there is limited data to compare them directly with roads in other countries, making it hard to draw firm conclusions.
  3. Roads in major US cities can be quite bad, especially in places like California, indicating a need for better maintenance and improvement in urban infrastructure.

Americans hate inflation more than they hate unemployment

Noahpinion • 21882 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Inflation annoys people more than unemployment. When prices go up, it feels like everyone's money is worth less, making people unhappy.
  2. Many voters care about how the economy is doing, especially inflation. This has been shown in surveys where people mention inflation as a big concern.
  3. Democratic strategies may need to change. Focusing too much on full employment without worrying about inflation could lead to big political losses.

The Bad Science and Bad Policy at the Heart of the Climate Movement

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 5172 implied HN points • 28 Jul 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Policy Analysis
  1. Climate change has different definitions in science and policy, leading to confusion and inconsistencies in understanding. Scientists define it broadly while policy focuses mainly on human-caused changes.
  2. Current climate policies often rely on temperature targets, assuming they directly relate to greenhouse gas emissions. However, recent research shows other factors also significantly affect global temperatures.
  3. Reducing air pollution, while beneficial, can lead to increased temperatures due to less cooling from aerosols. This creates a complex situation where good actions for health might clash with climate goals.

At least five interesting things: Red Tape edition (#57)

Noahpinion • 15706 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Environmental review laws like NEPA slow down development and can lead to unnecessary delays and high costs, affecting infrastructure projects.
  2. Jimmy Carter's legacy of deregulation is remembered as a way to navigate some current regulatory barriers and foster economic growth.
  3. Targeted tariffs are more effective than broad tariffs in managing imports and trade deficits, and there's new evidence that the Trump administration is shifting towards this approach.

Biden's tarnished industrial legacy

Noahpinion • 15529 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Biden's industrial policies, like the CHIPS Act, created a boom in U.S. manufacturing, which is good for the economy. These programs encouraged private companies to invest in factories and technology.
  2. Despite some successes, Biden's approach had major flaws, like listening too much to special interest groups and not fixing regulatory issues that slow down government action. These problems could hinder the future of manufacturing in America.
  3. Blocking Nippon Steel's attempt to buy U.S. Steel seemed like a protective move, but it upset an important ally, Japan, and could hurt the U.S. economy by stalling investments and modernization that the deal would have brought.

Four years of Noahpinion

Noahpinion • 16882 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. The return of Trump as president signals a big change in American politics. Progressivism seems to be struggling, and many Democrats need to rethink their strategies to reconnect with voters.
  2. Global liberalism is facing serious challenges as countries like China and Russia assert more power. The cooperation among democracies to combat authoritarianism seems to be fading.
  3. Advances in technology, especially in AI and industrial policy, hold promise for the future. While concerns about job loss due to AI exist, there are reasons to be optimistic about how technology can enhance human workers' capabilities.

Emissions Scenarios, CWG Fact Check 1

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 3699 implied HN points • 03 Aug 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Policy Analysis
  1. Recent projections of climate change are showing less severe outcomes than before. This means the future might not be as bad as some had predicted.
  2. Scientists have recently agreed that the world will probably warm less than previously thought. This is a positive development and could change how we approach climate policies.
  3. Regulations aimed at reducing emissions, like those from the EPA, might not have a big impact on global emissions. More effective methods to tackle climate change could be needed.

Woke Elvis Resigns

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 11425 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Justin Trudeau resigned as Canadian Prime Minister after his approval ratings dropped significantly during his time in office. It marks a big change for someone who was once very popular.
  2. His story serves as a reminder for men about the importance of maintaining respect and connection with the people they lead.
  3. Trudeau's decline in popularity and embarrassing fall from grace will likely be talked about for generations as a cautionary tale.

The "Deaths of Despair" narrative is wrong

Slow Boring • 7842 implied HN points • 10 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. The 'Deaths of Despair' narrative linking declining life expectancy to social and political trends like right-populist politics has fundamental statistical flaws.
  2. The increase in deaths of despair is mainly due to opioid overdoses and differences in pharmaceutical marketing laws between the US and Europe.
  3. Public health outcomes differing between states can be attributed to the implementation (or lack thereof) of paternalistic health policies.

Too Big to Fail

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 2581 implied HN points • 15 Aug 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Policy Analysis
  1. A recent climate study published in *Nature* predicted large economic losses due to climate change, but it has been found to be seriously flawed. This could potentially mislead policymakers and the public.
  2. Experts discovered that correcting some mistakes in the original study greatly reduced the predicted damages, showing they might not be significant at all. This raises questions about the reliability of the findings.
  3. The flawed study has been widely accepted in important policy discussions, which could create serious consequences for global economic strategies and confidence in climate science.

New Capitalism in America

Global Inequality and More 3.0 • 2400 implied HN points • 23 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. The richest people today often earn their wealth from both high salaries and investments. This means some of the top workers are also among the top capitalists.
  2. There's a growing group of very wealthy individuals who consistently benefit from both labor income and capital income, which is changing the traditional class structure.
  3. This new elite class feels they deserve their high incomes because of their education and hard work, but this also creates a division between them and the rest of society.

The Climate Beat Goes On

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1786 implied HN points • 12 Aug 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Policy Analysis
  1. The DOE and EPA reports reflect differing perspectives on climate change. The DOE report highlights some overlooked issues in climate science, while the EPA document focuses more on legal arguments.
  2. There are areas of agreement between the DOE and IPCC reports, but there are also differences in emphasis. Some scientists feel certain important topics are not given enough attention in mainstream assessments.
  3. The idea of 'mainstream' science can sometimes be used to dismiss valid scientific views. Healthy scientific discussions should involve debate and challenge instead of gatekeeping.

Thoughts on Trump Ending Affirmative Action in Contracting

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 4925 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. It's possible to change policy even if you aren't famous or super connected. By bringing important issues to people's attention and making a strong argument, you can influence the conversation around those policies.
  2. Timing is key in politics. Being vocal about an issue when it matters most can lead to real changes. If people are focused on something important, it's a good time to suggest new ideas.
  3. Conservatives have started realizing the need to fight against 'wokeness' and its influence in government and business. The recent action to end certain affirmative action policies shows a significant shift in their approach.

The Paris AI Anti-Safety Summit

Don't Worry About the Vase • 4390 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
🕹 Technology Policy Analysis
  1. The recent Paris AI Summit shifted focus away from safety and risk management, favoring economic opportunities instead. Many leaders downplayed potential dangers of advanced AI.
  2. International cooperation on AI safety has weakened, with past agreements being ignored. This leaves little room for developing effective safety regulations as AI technologies rapidly evolve.
  3. The emphasis on voluntary commitments from companies may not be enough to ensure safety. Experts believe a more structured regulatory framework is needed to address serious risks associated with AI.

Top Links 928 NEET. Greening Poland. Epstein and the Washington Consensus. "The form of life is only the present".

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 21 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. More young people are becoming NEET, which means they're not working or studying, creating concerns about their future and the economy.
  2. Poland is making efforts towards greener practices, indicating a shift in how countries approach environmental issues.
  3. The discussions around Epstein and the Washington Consensus highlight important conversations on ethics and economic policies in today's world.

How Baltimore Assessments Accidentally Subsidize Blight—And How We Can Fix It

Progress and Poverty • 1347 implied HN points • 06 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Baltimore's vacant lots are undervalued, leading to a loss of nearly half a billion dollars. This makes it cheaper for landowners to keep their property vacant, which encourages blight and hinders development.
  2. The current property assessment system is flawed, treating land value inconsistently. This means owners of vacant lots benefit financially while active developers face higher taxes.
  3. A better way to value land is needed, using recent sales data to create fair assessments. Improving data collection can help the city support development and make neighborhoods safer and more appealing.

Chartbook 388: Trump v. Musk - Alien v. Predator or "death march" into a political vacuum?

Chartbook • 1845 implied HN points • 06 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Trump and Musk are publicly clashing, which shows a deeper issue in Trump's grip on power and policy decisions. This indicates that even top supporters can disagree strongly about important legislation.
  2. Trump's Big Beautiful Bill faces challenges from within his own party, revealing a lack of clear support and coherent strategy around key policies like taxes and tariffs.
  3. Rising tensions and conflicts could push Trump’s party toward extreme views, such as using xenophobia as a unifying theme to manage internal disagreements.

Policy: An Early Career Guide REVISED!

ChinaTalk • 1230 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Writing online, like on Substack, is a great way to showcase your skills and stand out in policy jobs. It's important to develop a strong writing portfolio to get hired.
  2. Learning Chinese helps you understand China better, and nothing beats living there for gaining real language skills and cultural knowledge. It can really enrich your experience as a policy analyst.
  3. Networking on platforms like Twitter can open doors for you. You can connect with experts, learn how they think, and even find job opportunities through conversations.

Investigations into health care consolidation, profiteering lack necessary insurer angle

HEALTH CARE un-covered • 499 implied HN points • 20 May 24
🏥 Health Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Private equity firms are not the only problem in healthcare. Insurers, especially those owned by Wall Street, are also making big profits and taking over more doctor practices.
  2. A lot of attention is on private equity's role in healthcare, but insurance companies like UnitedHealth are also growing and may pose an even bigger issue. They have control over many doctors and healthcare facilities.
  3. There's a new effort from the DOJ to look into how much power insurers have in the healthcare market. This could bring more focus on the actions of insurance companies, not just private equity.

Chartbook 390 Beyond LA: Logics of escalation from Black Lives Matter (2020) to "No Kings" (June 14 2025)

Chartbook • 1630 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Protests are increasing in LA due to a heavy military response to immigration issues. This creates a tense environment that could escalate further.
  2. The Trump administration is focusing on a confrontational approach to gather support from his base. They aim to use fear and division to unify and rally their followers.
  3. Upcoming events, like the planned 'No Kings' protests on June 14, show a deep divide in America and indicate that tensions could spread beyond LA.

Where Does Medicare Go From Here: Profit-Driven Chaos or Patient-Centered Community?

HEALTH CARE un-covered • 679 implied HN points • 17 Apr 24
🏥 Health Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Medicare is facing serious issues due to privatization, which could harm millions of seniors and disabled people who rely on it for health care.
  2. Insurance companies are overcharging the government for Medicare Advantage plans, leading to higher costs for both the program and patients.
  3. There are two possible futures for Medicare: one that could focus on patient care without profit motives, or one that could worsen access and services for people who need care.

New study: State medical examiners wrongly excused homicides committed by Maryland police officers

The Watch • 1079 implied HN points • 21 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. The Maryland audit found that medical examiners incorrectly classified many police custody deaths. This means potential homicides weren't properly investigated or addressed.
  2. There was a noticeable racial bias; deaths of Black individuals were less likely to be labeled as homicides compared to other racial groups. This indicates a serious issue with how bias affects these important determinations.
  3. The study points to a need for better procedures in medical examinations, particularly to avoid bias. Changes in how autopsies are conducted can potentially save lives by preventing similar deaths in the future.

How To Push Back With a Smile

The Ruffian • 258 implied HN points • 26 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. It's important to express disagreement politely and with a smile. This can make conversations more civil and productive.
  2. Even in politics, you can learn valuable lessons about communication and connection with others.
  3. Charm and positivity can help navigate uncomfortable discussions, making it easier to share different viewpoints.

Climate Science Whiplash

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 2424 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Policy Analysis
  1. Climate science can seem confusing and contradictory, leading to what people call 'climate science whiplash.' Different studies can say opposite things, making it hard to know what to believe.
  2. When extreme weather happens, people easily find studies that support their views, often ignoring the bigger picture. This selective use of science is like picking only the pieces of a puzzle that fit into your view.
  3. It's important to trust rigorous assessments from credible sources like the IPCC. They provide a clearer picture of climate change effects, helping us understand what we should really worry about.

It’s official! Control of women's and girls' single-sex spaces in Christchurch, NZ, is no longer in the hands of women and girls.

A B’Old Woman • 599 implied HN points • 20 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. The new Equity and Inclusion Policy in Christchurch has removed the protection of single-sex spaces for women and girls. This means that these spaces are now open to people who identify as women, including men.
  2. By not including the term 'sex' in the policy, it's hard to enforce rights for single-sex areas. This change makes it unclear if women's rights in these spaces will be respected or considered at all.
  3. Women and girls can no longer directly ask a man to leave a female space. Instead, they must call a staff member to deal with the situation, which takes away their control and comfort in these spaces.

The Politicization of Intelligence

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1118 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Intelligence can be influenced by politics, which means the information gathered isn't always objective. This can lead to bad decisions based on flawed data.
  2. It's important for decision-makers to be open to different views and facts, even if they don't fit their hopes. Ignoring contrary evidence can lead to problems, like the difficulties faced in Iraq.
  3. Leaders in politics and intelligence need to focus on reality and not let political agendas shape the truth. Good outcomes come from honest assessments, not just from trying to win political arguments.