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What's going to happen to Ukraine now?

Noahpinion • 30412 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Geopolitics Elections War Strategy Political narratives Public Opinion
  1. The current situation in Ukraine may lead to a Finland-like scenario, where Ukraine could lose some territory but still maintain its independence and democracy. This would be a strategic victory for Ukraine despite the tactical losses.
  2. Recent shifts in American political support mean that while direct aid from the U.S. might change, Ukraine is still capable of defending itself and building its own military resources. They are determined to fight against the invasion.
  3. Negotiations with Russia might focus on reaching a peace deal that allows for ongoing Ukrainian independence, despite the narrative that favors Russia. A balance may be struck where both sides can find a way to end the conflict without total defeat.

Weekend Update #116: One Day Until A New World: Case Study on Sanctions

Phillips’s Newsletter • 163 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Elections International relations War Strategy Sanctions
  1. Sanctions against Russia have toughened recently, making it harder for them to sell oil and damaging their economy. This could weaken their war efforts.
  2. Ukraine's attacks against Russia are increasing in frequency and coordination. They are successfully hitting key targets, which may give them an advantage.
  3. The war seems to be a race to see which side can keep fighting longer. While Ukraine fears running out of support, Russia is also showing signs of weakening, especially if Western aid continues.

Weekend Update #112: Ukraine Strikes a Senior Russian Officer (Again).

Phillips’s Newsletter • 183 implied HN points • 22 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Conflict International relations Military operations Geopolitics War Strategy
  1. Ukraine has launched a targeted strike against a senior Russian officer, showing the ongoing pattern of both sides aiming at each other's high-ranking military leaders during the conflict. Such attacks have been common throughout the war, not a surprising escalation.
  2. The fighting has shifted to smaller areas, particularly near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, indicating that key battle zones are becoming more condensed rather than expanding. This trend shows the difficulty both sides face in gaining significant ground.
  3. Russia is now relying on North Korean forces to bolster its efforts in Kursk due to significant losses. The North Koreans are struggling with the reality of modern warfare, suffering heavy casualties.

Commentator

Castalia • 339 implied HN points • 18 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Geopolitics War Strategy International relations Elections
  1. Israel and Iran are in a tense situation, but neither seems eager for a full-blown war. Both countries are more focused on saving face rather than escalating the conflict.
  2. The war in Ukraine is dragging on, with Ukrainian troops feeling exhausted and struggling for resources. The leaders need to rethink their strategies before it's too late.
  3. Trump's upcoming court trial could significantly impact the election season, as he will be tied up in the courtroom. It creates a unique situation that could shape the political landscape in America.

War Games and Nuclear Weapons: A Modest Proposal

Phillips’s Newsletter • 61 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics War Strategy Nuclear policy Political Commentary International relations
  1. War games involving nuclear weapons should reflect real-life consequences so players appreciate the seriousness of their actions. This means making it personal, such as considering how decisions could affect family and friends.
  2. Current war games often feel detached from reality, as players can drop bombs and then return to their normal lives without any real stakes. This disconnect makes players less aware of the real-world implications of their choices.
  3. Introducing more realistic scenarios in war games could lead to deeper understanding and conversation about the impact of nuclear warfare, making it a topic people take more seriously.
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Total Kievan Debellation

Big Serge Thought • 13 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Military conflict International relations Geopolitics War Strategy Global Security
  1. In 2024, Russia made significant gains in southern Donetsk, overcoming Ukrainian defenses and pushing the front closer to key areas like Pokrovsk. This was a crucial change after years of stalled fighting.
  2. Ukraine's attempts to expand its military efforts, particularly with the offensive into Kursk, did not succeed and left its defenses in Donbas weakened. Many resources were spent ineffectively, further straining Ukraine's situation.
  3. Ukraine is facing rising manpower issues, with mobilization efforts falling short and desertions increasing. Their ability to maintain sufficient fighting power is decreasing, making their future in the war very uncertain.

Are Sanctions Working?

Diane Francis • 579 implied HN points • 06 Mar 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Sanctions Economic Policy Foreign Relations International Law War Strategy
  1. Sanctions against Russia have hurt its economy but not enough to stop its war efforts. Russia's GDP might even be doing okay compared to countries that imposed the sanctions.
  2. Many Russian individuals and companies have found ways to dodge sanctions. While some assets are frozen, actual confiscations that would hurt the oligarchs have been limited.
  3. Energy sanctions are starting to take effect, with Russia's oil revenues dropping significantly. If these trends continue, it could weaken Russia's ability to sustain its war efforts.