Big Serge Thought

Big Serge Thought is centered around in-depth analysis and commentary on the Russo-Ukrainian War, with emphasis on strategic, operational, and geopolitical aspects. It provides historical comparisons to WW2, examines military tactics and innovations, and explores political dimensions of warfare, including the effects of leadership decisions and international dynamics.

Russo-Ukrainian War Analysis Military Strategy and Tactics Geopolitical Dynamics Historical Military Comparisons Leadership in Warfare International Relations and Politics

The hottest Substack posts of Big Serge Thought

And their main takeaways

Russo-Ukrainian War: The Deluge

12 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. The Russo-Ukrainian War has shifted to an attritional-positional nature, with industrial war becoming prevalent over rapid maneuvers.
  2. The Russian capture of strategic locations like Avdiivka demonstrates effective tactics and material support, challenging misconceptions of military losses.
  3. Ukraine faces challenges in artillery shell shortages and drone capabilities, while Russia demonstrates a significant advantage in force generation and resource availability.

The Age of Zugzwang

14 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Geostrategy Conflict International relations Military Diplomacy
  1. In the chess of geopolitics, actors often find themselves in situations where they are forced to act without good solutions, similar to 'Zugzwang' in chess where no good moves are available.
  2. Israel's unique state identity as an Eschatological Garrison and a Settler-Colonial state shapes its strategic logic, creating a sense of asymmetric vulnerability and influencing its actions in conflicts like the Israeli-Arab conflict.
  3. The United States faces a challenging situation in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East, where traditional deterrence tools may no longer be effective, leading to a strategic choice between full commitment or strategic retreat.

Russo-Ukrainian War: The Reckoning

16 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics War Conflict Strategy Defense Negotiation
  1. The Russo-Ukrainian War in the age of social media and cameras revealed the complexities of modern warfare.
  2. Footage from Ukraine offers valuable insight into tactics and weapon systems in near-real-time.
  3. American entertainment elements in war coverage may not reflect the reality of conflict outcomes and the challenges faced by both sides.

Downfall: The Conquest of Germany

4 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
💾 History Warfare Battles Victory Strategy Military
  1. Historic images at the end of World War II show contrasting emotions of victory and devastation.
  2. The war's end involved the destruction of powerful empires through military actions.
  3. The capture of the Ludendorff Bridge marked a significant turning point in the war, highlighting strategic mistakes and operational progress.
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Russo-Ukrainian War: The Wagner Uprising

14 implied HN points • 26 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics War Crisis Management Mercenaries Government Security
  1. The events surrounding the Wagner Uprising were dramatic but did not pose a significant threat to the stability of the Russian state.
  2. Different ideological perspectives led to varying interpretations of the event, but it was mainly driven by Prigozhin's attempt to protect the independence of his PMC, Wagner.
  3. Despite the challenges posed by the uprising, the Russian government managed the crisis competently, showcasing overall stability and control.

The Battle of Bakhmut: Postmortem

12 implied HN points • 02 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics War Military Strategy Tactics
  1. The Battle of Bakhmut was a prolonged and bloody conflict, with slow progress and extensive destruction due to intense urban combat.
  2. Both Ukrainian and Russian sides debated the strategic importance of Bakhmut, with theories of it being used as a trap or a vital defensive anchor.
  3. The battle resulted in high casualties, with estimations of around 45,000 losses for Ukraine, 17,000 for Wagner, and a strategic advantage for Russia in terms of preserving its regular forces.

Russo-Ukrainian War: Leak Biopsy

10 implied HN points • 10 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Ukraine Russia NATO
  1. The leaked documents reveal significant weaknesses in Ukraine's combat power and military intelligence framework.
  2. Ukraine's force generation is degraded, with under-equipped and undertrained brigades for the spring offensive.
  3. The Pentagon lacks independent intelligence on Ukrainian forces, relying on propaganda and open source projects.

Russo-Ukrainian War: Dam!

8 implied HN points • 07 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics War Conflict Infrastructure Geography
  1. A dam destruction in the Russo-Ukrainian War has significant implications for civilians and agriculture.
  2. The destruction of the dam impacts civilians on a large scale and poses risks to agriculture.
  3. The dam breach creates a humanitarian, ecological disaster impacting civilians and causing disruption of Russian defenses.

Russo-Ukrainian War: The World Blood Pump

12 implied HN points • 20 Jan 23
  1. The Russo-Ukrainian War is characterized by Russia's patient attritional strategy and Ukraine's exhausting defense.
  2. The battle in Bakhmut is crucial despite being misrepresented in Western media, and a stronghold for Russian forces in Ukraine to exploit.
  3. Ukraine's military capabilities are significantly degraded, with artillery losses and reliance on Western support, indicating a potential unfavorable outcome in the conflict.

The Last Effort: Germany's Final Battle in the West

3 implied HN points • 26 Oct 23
💾 History World Politics Military Strategy Tactics
  1. Wars are not over until the last shot is fired, and every strategic and operational decision matters.
  2. German Field Marshal Walther Model played a crucial role in restoring cohesion to the German forces and leading brutal fights during the final stages of World War Two.
  3. Operation Market Garden was a complex plan that faced challenges, led to heavy casualties, and ultimately froze up the western front rather than marking a swift victory for the allies.

Russo-Ukrainian War: Schrodinger’s Offensive

10 implied HN points • 01 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics War Ukraine Russian military
  1. The current Russo-Ukrainian war situation is uncertain, with various opinions on the potential for a major Russian offensive.
  2. Russia is focusing on attrition warfare and denying Ukraine the chance to regain operational initiative by targeting shaping objectives.
  3. Organizational challenges in the Russian armed forces are causing delays in launching a large-scale offensive, giving Russia the initiative in driving attrition of the Ukrainian army.

Apex Predator: The American Army in Normandy

3 implied HN points • 26 Sep 23
💾 History World War II Military Allies
  1. The American Army's success in Normandy marked a significant shift in their military tactics and effectiveness.
  2. The US Army's operational conduct against Germany evolved from relying on firepower to developing superior maneuvering techniques.
  3. Operation Cobra led by General Omar Bradley showcased the American version of Soviet Deep Battle, combining overwhelming firepower with concentrated attacks for success.

Götterdämmerung in the East

4 implied HN points • 16 Aug 23
💾 History World Politics Military Strategies Battles Leadership
  1. Adolf Hitler's strategy in 1944 involved attacking the Anglo-American forces in the west and defending against the Soviets in the east.
  2. The Wehrmacht shifted forces to France to prepare for the anticipated invasion, leaving the eastern front vulnerable.
  3. Germany faced a strategic crisis in spring 1944 with dwindling resources and an impending Anglo-American invasion, while also still battling the Soviets.

Red Army Rising: Kursk and Beyond

4 implied HN points • 11 Jul 23
💾 History Military History World War II Propaganda
  1. Surrendering in war can be seen as a sign of shame and betrayal.
  2. Choosing to fight a losing battle can lead to strategic paralysis and ineffective decision-making.
  3. The famous tank battle at Prokhorovka during the Battle of Kursk, was more of a Soviet tactical blunder rather than a significant engagement.

Surovikin’s Difficult Choice

9 implied HN points • 12 Nov 22
  1. The Russian withdrawal from Kherson is a significant humiliation politically.
  2. The withdrawal is likely a well-planned military decision rather than a trap or defeat.
  3. The decision to withdraw shows a focus on rational military choices over political pressures.

Politics By Other Means

10 implied HN points • 05 Oct 22
  1. War is a continuation of politics by other means, always tied to a political goal.
  2. Putin's approach to war is bureaucratic and legalistic, focused on annexation processes.
  3. Military mobilization is also political mobilization, reflecting the societal and political consensus for higher intensity warfare.

The War Has Just Begun

10 implied HN points • 29 Sep 22
  1. We are entering a transitional period in the war with higher Russian force deployment and greater intensity looming.
  2. Annexation of certain regions by Russia signifies their existential importance and readiness to defend them with full force.
  3. Russian force generation is surging while Ukraine's operational window is closing, setting the stage for a potential winter offensive.

The Eagle Has Landed: America Meets the Wehrmacht

3 implied HN points • 02 Aug 23
💾 History World Politics Military History Warfare Tactics Military technology
  1. America's war experience in World War Two provided unmatched confidence and a sense of reassured power, contributing to postwar confidence and strength.
  2. The American military entered the war with doctrinal uncertainty, having to learn quickly how to fight a continental- scale ground war.
  3. The early American armored force and doctrine was underdeveloped due to historical factors, leading to challenges in combat against German panzers in World War Two.

The End of Cabinet War

1 HN point • 01 Dec 23
💾 History Military Strategy Warfare Nationalism Conflict
  1. The Prussian military establishment in the 19th century won many battles, establishing military supremacy, but the approach led to hubris and challenges in the 20th century wars.
  2. Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke's success in the Franco-Prussian War encapsulated the ideal warfare of encirclement but also highlighted the shift from limited Cabinet Wars to total People's Wars.
  3. The debate between Moltke and Bismarck on limited versus total war strategies in the 1870s mirrors modern conflicts, like Russia's actions in Ukraine, showcasing the consequences of strategic decisions on long-term outcomes.

Death Trap on the Volga: Stalingrad

4 implied HN points • 09 May 23
💾 History Warfare Operations Strategy Tactics
  1. Stalingrad marked a pivotal shift in the momentum of World War II, leading to the irreversible loss of strategic initiative for the Germans.
  2. The German operations in 1942 faced strategic challenges due to the emerging global conflict with Anglo-American powers and a continental land war with the Soviet Union.
  3. The German failure during Case Blue was driven by inadequate forces, lack of fuel, and a flawed operational plan, culminating in the decision to assault Stalingrad.

Special Military Operation, Season 2

8 implied HN points • 12 Sep 22
  1. The Kharkov counteroffensive and the complexities of evaluating military operations
  2. Ukraine's struggle to maintain momentum after advances in Kharkov
  3. Russian escalations in attacking Ukrainian infrastructure without full mobilization

Death Tango: The Race to the Dnieper

3 implied HN points • 23 Jun 23
💾 History World War II Military Strategy
  1. The Red Army's use of sequential operations was a smashing success, shattering the German front and pushing deep into enemy territory.
  2. Despite initial setbacks, German Field Marshal Manstein was tasked with saving Army Group South and had to strategically maneuver his forces to prevent further collapse.
  3. The Anglo-American Joint Intelligence's warning about the potential collapse of German forces in Russia highlighted the critical situation facing the Wehrmacht at the hands of the Red Army.

Ukraine Counterattacks!

8 implied HN points • 09 Sep 22
  1. Ukraine's counteroffensive in the Kharkov region is facing challenges in reaching meaningful operational objectives due to geographical and strategic barriers.
  2. The concept of operational depth in military theory refers to attacking the enemy's ability to sustain itself in combat, rather than just attacking the frontline forces.
  3. The counteroffensive by Ukraine is likely to result in significant losses as Russian reserves flood into the area, highlighting the need for Russia to modify force deployment strategies.

The Russo-Ukrainian War

8 implied HN points • 31 Aug 22
  1. The Russo-Ukrainian War has entered its seventh month, and Russia's military strategy focuses on disrupting Ukrainian deployment and achieving key objectives.
  2. Russia is engaging in attritional, positional warfare in the Donbas region, leveraging infantry sparingly and employing overwhelming artillery firepower.
  3. Economically, Russia's strategy in the war is burdening the West with the high costs of supporting Ukraine, while Russia remains resilient through its own energy resources.

Soviet Operational Art: Troubled Beginnings

3 implied HN points • 27 Apr 23
💾 History World Politics Military Doctrine
  1. The Red Army's transformation from a clumsy force to a sophisticated battle machine was a painful process but led to immense power by the end of WWII.
  2. Soviet Operational Art focused on 'Deep Battle', emphasizing sequenced operations to maintain the attack tempo and deny the enemy initiative.
  3. The Battle of Kharkov in 1942 highlighted the importance of decisiveness, aggression, and adaptability on the battlefield beyond just strategic planning.

Sound and Fury

4 implied HN points • 28 Oct 22
  1. Putin's recent statements about nuclear weapons reflect Russia's existing nuclear use doctrine, which allows for nuclear response only if state's existence is threatened in a conventional war.
  2. The concept of tactical nuclear weapons can be misunderstood - they are still highly destructive and their use would conflict with Russia's current objectives in the Ukraine war.
  3. The Battle of Kadesh, fought over 3,000 years ago, provides valuable insights into ancient warfare tactics and challenges, showcasing the intricacies of battlefield decision-making and operational creativity.

Three Regimes in Russia

4 implied HN points • 16 Sep 22
  1. Successful political revolutions can happen quietly and gradually.
  2. Russian history has seen shifts from Praetorian Rule to Bureaucratic Monarchy to the Party-State structure.
  3. The current Russian government is reminiscent of Praetorian Rule with its association with 'Siloviki', but it does not fit the single party state model.

German Rebirth: Blitzkrieg

2 implied HN points • 17 Feb 23
💾 History Military
  1. Blitzkrieg was a mobile and aggressive warfare strategy used by the German Wehrmacht with an emphasis on rapid movement and overwhelming firepower.
  2. The Panzer Division was a crucial military innovation combining tanks with motorized infantry and artillery, creating a versatile and powerful combat force.
  3. The German military tradition of aggressive field commanders, combined with technological advancements like radios and mechanization, allowed for the successful execution of Blitzkrieg tactics in campaigns like Poland in 1939 and France in 1940.

The History of Battle: Maneuver, Part 1

3 implied HN points • 04 Nov 22
  1. Maneuver warfare aims to quickly destroy the enemy's fighting power by exploiting battlefield asymmetries.
  2. Successful maneuver warfare involves concentrated force, disrupting the enemy's decision making, and exploiting unexpected situations on the battlefield.
  3. Encircling the enemy with a single massed strike package can lead to successful annihilation battles.

The Great War: Groping for a Solution

2 implied HN points • 02 Feb 23
  1. The history of warfare is full of strategic and tactical innovations, such as dispersal of forces and using artillery in a suppressive role
  2. General Brusilov's offensive during WWI showed that carefully planned tactical maneuvers could break through fortified defenses, but lack of clear strategic vision hindered full success
  3. Germany's Operation Michael in 1918 introduced innovative Stormtroopers with advanced infantry tactics like fire and movement, showcasing a shift towards modern warfare tactics

The Failure of Maneuver: The Great War

2 implied HN points • 17 Jan 23
  1. The Great War was a catastrophic event for Europe, leaving millions dead or wounded, and leading to the collapse of major empires.
  2. The military strategies in the Great War were not aberrations but the result of a flawed system of warfighting that had been developing over decades.
  3. The failure of maneuver and decisive victories in both the Western and Eastern Fronts led to the prolonged trench warfare characteristic of World War I.

The Moltke Mirage

2 implied HN points • 31 Dec 22
  1. Prussia, under Moltke, dominated warfare in the 19th century with successful wars against powerful neighbors like Austria and France.
  2. Moltke balanced planning and aggression in warfare, using vague plans to adapt to rapidly changing situations on the battlefield.
  3. In the Franco-Prussian War, the Prussian Army's aggressive attacking spirit faced challenges from French Chassepot rifles, but still achieved victory by trapping the French Army in Metz.

The Failure of Battle in the American Civil War

1 implied HN point • 16 Dec 22
  1. The Napoleonic Wars in Europe brought unprecedented devastation and transformed military affairs
  2. Antoine-Henri Jomini's military theories heavily influenced American military strategy
  3. The Battle of Chancellorsville during the American Civil War showcased Lee's bold and decisive leadership

The History of Battle: Maneuver Part 4

1 implied HN point • 28 Nov 22
  1. The introduction of standardized firearms like muskets and cannons revolutionized warfare, shifting society and changing the nature of the warrior into a part of a centralized state army.
  2. The Battle of Breitenfeld during the Thirty Years War highlighted the importance of maneuver on the battlefield, showing the impact of transitioning from dense squares to linear formations of musketeers.
  3. Frederick the Great's military strategy involved swift, aggressive attacks to confront and defeat enemies in a series of wars, focusing on timely and decisive battlefield engagement.

The History of Battle: Maneuver, Part 3

1 implied HN point • 22 Nov 22
  1. Battle victory can come from different strategies that both concentrate and disperse fighting power.
  2. Maneuvering in battle is unpredictable, dependent on army qualities and enemy reactions.
  3. An idealized form of battle is annihilation, where the enemy is completely destroyed as a cohesive unit.

The History of Battle: Maneuver, Part 2

1 implied HN point • 10 Nov 22
  1. Maintaining operational ambiguity in warfare is crucial to keep the enemy in the dark about your intentions.
  2. Dispersion of forces can help create strategic ambiguity and confuse the enemy, leading to successful maneuvering on the battlefield.
  3. Napoleon's innovative use of the corps system in organizing his army allowed for rapid movement, independence of units, and swift concentration of forces during battles.

The Soul of Battle

1 implied HN point • 01 Nov 22
  1. War is a complex and paradoxical human experience with both horrors and allure.
  2. Battles in wartime are intense and reveal the purest form of contest between will, courage, and competence.
  3. Battle presents an existential singularity where the ultimate truth of life and death is faced without mediation.