The hottest Behavioral Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

This Next Market Crash Will Break Our Fragile Brains

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 67 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Theory Behavioral Finance Financial Risks
  1. The next market crash may have serious psychological effects on investors. Many people today haven't experienced a long-lasting downturn, which could be shocking for them.
  2. Current stock prices are very high compared to earnings, which might lead to a big correction. People are buying stocks without truly understanding their worth.
  3. The economy is facing challenges that could lead to stagflation. If that happens, it might hurt everyday people more than the wealthy, widening financial inequalities.

Walking In Memphis

Behavioral Value Investor • 148 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment Market Trends Personal Finance Behavioral Finance
  1. When people are in pain or facing difficulties, it's easy to think that things will never get better. It's important to remember that these tough times are usually temporary.
  2. Using past pains can help us grow and improve, especially in things like investing. Instead of giving up, we should learn from our experiences and stick to our tried-and-true methods.
  3. The future is often different from what we've recently experienced. Just like healing in life, financial markets also recover over time, so we should stay hopeful even when things seem bleak.

I Am Back: Exposing the Bullsh*t Market

Behavioral Value Investor • 282 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Behavioral Finance Cryptocurrency Economic Trends
  1. The author took a break from writing because it felt too scheduled and stressful, but now plans to write when inspired instead. This way, they can share better insights without pressure.
  2. There's a lot of strange behavior in today's markets, like people paying an outrageous amount for a banana or a company being valued more than its actual Bitcoin holdings. It shows how market psychology can be very irrational.
  3. Many financial indicators are warning signs of problems ahead, but people often ignore them because the current trends seem to last. It’s important to recognize these warnings to avoid repeating past mistakes in investing.

The Masters in Finance Arts Department

Malt Liquidity • 8 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investment Economics Market Analysis Financial Technology Behavioral Finance
  1. Writing often reflects personal experiences, but it can also be a form of storytelling that adds depth to facts. The best writing connects readers and creates an emotional response.
  2. Financial analysis is more about crafting a compelling narrative than it is about pure data. Understanding market trends and personal intuition can often be as important as mathematical models.
  3. In the future, traditional finance degrees may become less relevant, and skills like effective communication and critical thinking will be key. Learning how to sift through information and make sense of it is going to be very valuable.
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Longs For Shy Bears

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 11 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Analysis Economic Trends Short selling Behavioral Finance
  1. It's important to focus on short-term survival in investing, even if you have long-term goals. You need to manage risks carefully in the volatile market.
  2. There are signs of extreme behavior in trends like crypto and AI, but not acting rashly is key. Timing and proper planning are crucial to avoid losses.
  3. The investor expresses a desire to bet against market crazes but acknowledges that it requires careful strategy to be successful.

Overview of Portfolio Construction and Risk Management, Part 2

DeFi Education • 699 implied HN points • 03 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investing Risk management Behavioral Finance Market Trends
  1. Human emotions like greed and fear can affect investing decisions. People often buy high when they're greedy and ignore good opportunities when they're scared.
  2. Even experienced money managers can make mistakes by following trends instead of sticking to their strategies. They sometimes buy at the peak instead of the bottom.
  3. Understanding these emotional swings can help in better portfolio management. It's important to recognize how emotions can lead to poor financial choices.

A Watched Market Crash Pot Never Boils

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Economics Investing Market Trends Behavioral Finance
  1. Focusing too much on a potential market crash can make it less likely to happen. Sometimes, it's better to step back and not overthink things.
  2. Jerome Powell's comments suggest that the Fed won't rush to cut interest rates anytime soon, even if the economy shows some strength. This means we should pay attention to long-term trends.
  3. The stock market can be influenced by expectations, not just current conditions. People hope for lower rates, but that hope doesn't always match reality.

Hsieh, Moretti, Shiller, and the Rest: Part 2

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 252 implied HN points • 02 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Behavioral Finance
  1. High housing costs are mainly due to long term rise in rent inflation and decline in housing consumption.
  2. The bubble story contradicts the evidence of high housing costs being a result of economic rents, not productivity.
  3. Robert Shiller's analysis overlooks the importance of considering rent inflation in understanding housing market inefficiencies.

Walk Your Talk

do clouds feel vertigo? • 1 HN point • 31 Aug 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Economic Trends Investment Strategies Behavioral Finance Risk management
  1. Navigating emotions in finance is tough. Just like a story, the market has ups and downs, often driven by fear and greed.
  2. Understanding market patterns can help you make better choices. Key events, like earnings reports, can change how stocks perform quickly.
  3. It's smart to think about who benefits from market movements. Often, the loudest voices can mislead you, so keep a clear perspective.

What Are The Dangers And Rewards Of Doubling Down On Your Investments?

Behavioral Value Investor • 89 implied HN points • 30 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investments Risk management Behavioral Finance Value investing Financial Markets
  1. Doubling down on investments can be risky, make sure to assess potential downsides.
  2. Even successful investors can make mistakes and suffer losses by doubling down.
  3. Before doubling down on an investment, consider factors like financial leverage, funding requirements, and management strength.

What makes a market ‘look risky’?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Risk Assessment Market Analysis Behavioral Finance
  1. How股票价格表现过往的涨跌次数会影响投资者的风险感知。投资者会觉得涨得多的股票更安全。
  2. 如果股票的涨跌超过某个时间段集中在一起，投资者会觉得这支股票风险更高，因为可能面临连续的亏损。
  3. 最近的表现越好，股票看起来越吸引人，风险感知也会降低。人们倾向于基于最新的结果来做决策。

Remember, remember…

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investment Behavioral Finance Market Trends
  1. Our memories, especially specific experiences with the stock market, have a strong influence on how we decide to invest. Remembering good experiences can make us more willing to invest, while bad memories usually make us hold back.
  2. People who have personal memories about investing often ignore expert opinions because they trust their own experiences. In contrast, those without such memories are more likely to listen to experts and follow their advice.
  3. It’s important for investors to be aware of their biases from past experiences. Having a clear investment process can help avoid these mental shortcuts and lead to better decision-making.

Risk of Ruin

Net Interest • 24 implied HN points • 13 Oct 23
💰 Finance Risk management Investing Behavioral Finance Portfolio Management Cryptocurrency
  1. Participants in a study about managing financial risk did not fully exploit their edge in a coin-flipping game.
  2. Proper position sizing is crucial in gambling and financial markets to maximize returns and manage risk effectively.
  3. Understanding and applying formulas like Kelly's criterion can help in making optimal bets and improving performance in investing.

Only academics believe in efficient markets

Klement on Investing • 7 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Efficiency Academics Behavioral Finance
  1. Academics believe in efficient markets where past news does not affect investment decisions.
  2. Non-academics like financial professionals and retail investors do change forecasts in response to old news.
  3. Real markets are not as efficient as academics think, incorporating psychology and fundamentals is important for investing success.

Why quality stocks perform so well

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Market Analysis Risk Behavioral Finance
  1. Companies with higher profitability, known as 'quality stocks,' tend to outperform less profitable companies in the market.
  2. Highly profitable companies do not necessarily come with higher risks, as they have lower probability of share price crashes and tend to perform better in negative market conditions.
  3. The outperformance of highly profitable companies seems to be driven by systematic market mispricing rather than compensation for higher risks, making it a potentially persistent investment strategy.

Value Investing I: The Back Story

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 23 Oct 20
💰 Finance Investment Market Trends Behavioral Finance Valuation Methods Risk management
  1. Value investing does not have a single definition; different investors have their own ways of approaching it. Some focus only on low price-to-earnings or book value, while others consider management quality and market conditions.
  2. There are different styles of value investing like contrarian investing, where you buy stocks that have dropped in price, or activist investing, where you aim to change company management to unlock value. Each has its own strategy for finding value.
  3. The belief that value investing is the best way to achieve long-term success comes from both success stories and academic support. Many investors follow this philosophy because it combines strong principles and practical results.

Investing Whiplash: Looking for Closure with Apple and Amazon!

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 03 Dec 18
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Valuation Risk management Behavioral Finance
  1. When investing, it's smart to set rules to avoid emotional decisions, like using limit orders to fight against personal biases.
  2. Intrinsic value of stocks can change over time, influenced by both company performance and broader market conditions.
  3. Investors should be flexible in their strategies, being willing to sell sooner if prices align with their valuations, even if it means not holding forever.

The impossible quest for fair markets: Pokemon cards, HFT and Life lessons

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 25 Mar 14
💰 Finance Trading Investing Market Analysis Economics Behavioral Finance
  1. Markets are often unfair, just like my son's Pokemon trading experience. Some kids had advantages that made it hard for others to compete.
  2. In trading, you can either adapt your strategy or exit the game if you feel outmatched. Sometimes stepping back is the best choice.
  3. High-frequency trading has changed how the market works. Instead of trying to beat those with more technology, consider being an investor and focus on the actual value.

The Yankees' A Rod Problem: Sunk costs and investing

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 27 Oct 12
💼 Business Finance Investment Behavioral Finance Decision-making
  1. Sunk costs shouldn't affect current decisions. If you've already spent money, it shouldn't make you invest more if it's no longer worth it.
  2. Investors tend to hold on to losing stocks longer than they should. This can cause frustration and loss of potential gains.
  3. Regularly reviewing your investments can help you avoid emotional decision-making. Treating your portfolio like a new investment each year can keep it healthy.

Contrarian Value Investing - Going against the flow....

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 18 Jun 12
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Behavioral Finance Risk management
  1. Contrarian investing means buying stocks that other investors are selling off. This strategy bets that these stocks will bounce back after a market overreaction.
  2. It’s important to do your homework and consider why a stock price dropped. Some drops are temporary and can lead to big gains if the company is still strong.
  3. Watch out for risks and costs, especially with low-priced stocks. Timing your investments and understanding market reactions can make a big difference in returns.

Facebook: Sowing the wind, reaping the whirlwind

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 23 May 12
💰 Finance Investing Markets Valuation Behavioral Finance Economics
  1. Pricing is about what people are willing to pay, while valuation is about what an asset is truly worth. This difference is important in understanding investment decisions.
  2. Market momentum can be fragile and is often built on illusions. Investors may ignore signs of bubbles because they don't want to believe they are making bad choices.
  3. When momentum shifts, especially in social media stocks, investors might panic and sell, which can drive prices down even further than their true value. It's crucial for value investors to stay aware of these shifts.

Emotions, Intrinsic value and Dividend Clienteles: The Apple trade postscript

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 07 Apr 12
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Valuation Dividends Behavioral Finance
  1. Emotions can play a big role in investing decisions. Sometimes people buy or sell stocks based on how they feel, not just on facts.
  2. The value of a company can change based on its investors. If a company attracts the wrong kind of investors, it could hurt its overall value.
  3. Management's ability to handle pressure from different types of stockholders is important. If they respond poorly to investor demands, it could negatively impact the company's future.

How much diversification is too much?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 27 Nov 11
💰 Finance Investing Portfolio Management Risk Assessment Market Analysis Behavioral Finance
  1. Diversification helps reduce risk in investing. It's generally better to spread your money across various investments instead of putting it all in one stock.
  2. Some investors completely avoid diversification and focus on a few stocks because they believe they have a better understanding of the market. However, this can be risky if they are overconfident.
  3. Research shows that most individual investors are not well diversified and often miss out on better returns by being overly concentrated in fewer stocks. Diversifying can lead to more stable and higher returns overall.

Ruminations on Rogue Trading

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 23 Sep 11
💰 Finance Trading Risk management Behavioral Finance Regulation Investment Banking
  1. Rogue trading happens when a trader breaks their company's rules, which can lead to huge financial losses or gains. It's not just about losing money; making risky trades can also be considered rogue trading.
  2. There are several reasons why people engage in rogue trading, like feeling addicted to trading or wanting to hit a big payday. Many traders take bigger risks when using money that isn't theirs, especially after experiencing losses.
  3. To prevent rogue trading, companies need to have better risk management systems and only hire cautious traders. Monitoring must be improved and there should be clear consequences for traders who take reckless risks.

Decoding Expectations

inexactscience • 0 implied HN points • 20 Mar 23
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Behavioral Finance Expectations Economic Models Forecasting
  1. Expectations are key to economic models because they shape how people behave and react to changes in the economy. For example, if people expect prices to rise, they may ask for higher wages.
  2. There is confusion about whether expectations tend to overreact or underreact to information. Evidence shows that expectations can do both—people might overreact to recent events but underreact to larger economic trends.
  3. Bias in expectations is often studied, but noise—random fluctuations and errors—is just as important and can affect forecasts significantly. Understanding both can help improve how we predict economic outcomes.

DCF Myth 3: You cannot do a valuation, when there is too much uncertainty!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 02 May 16
💰 Finance Valuation Investment Market Trends Risk management Behavioral Finance
  1. You can still do valuations even when there's a lot of uncertainty. It's actually common to face unknowns in investing.
  2. Uncertainty can lead to bad decision-making like inaction or relying too much on others' opinions. Being aware of how uncertainty affects you is key.
  3. Having a clear story or narrative about a company helps during uncertain times. It can guide your decisions and make valuations feel more grounded.

hindsight bias

Thái | Hacker | Kỹ sư tin tặc • 0 implied HN points • 21 May 08
💰 Finance Behavioral Finance Investing Market Analysis Risk management Financial Institutions
  1. Hindsight bias is the tendency to believe that outcomes were predictable, even though they may not have been at the time.
  2. People often overestimate their ability to predict future events based on their perceived success in predicting past events.
  3. There are numerous factors that can influence stock market outcomes, making it difficult to accurately predict future market behavior.

Mean Reversion: Gravitational Super Force or Dangerous Delusion?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 31 Aug 16
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Statistics Data interpretation Behavioral Finance
  1. Mean reversion is the idea that extreme results will return to the average over time. This is seen in sports and investing, but it can lead us to make wrong assumptions about future performance.
  2. There are two types of mean reversion: time series mean reversion, which looks at past average values over time, and cross-sectional mean reversion, which compares values against the average of similar items. Both have their own risks and assumptions.
  3. Structural changes in the economy or companies can disrupt mean reversion, meaning trusting it too much could lead to poor investment decisions. It's important to stay aware of these changes and not just rely on historical data.

Myth 4.2: It's all about D in the DCF

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 04 Nov 16
💰 Finance Valuation Investment Risk management Market Analysis Behavioral Finance
  1. Many people focus too much on discount rates when valuing investments, often ignoring cash flows and growth rates, which are just as important.
  2. Getting the discount rate wrong can lead to big mistakes in valuation, but the range of costs of capital is often quite similar across different companies.
  3. Instead of stressing over discount rates, we should prioritize accurately estimating future cash flows and growth, especially for younger companies.

A Tale of Two Markets: Politics and Investing!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 06 Jun 17
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Risk management Economic Indicators Behavioral Finance
  1. There is a big divide among investors about the current market. Some think a crash is coming while others believe a new bull market is starting.
  2. People are showing different feelings about risk. For some, the market seems stable, but others see a lot of uncertainty in economic policies.
  3. Consumer confidence is up, but spending hasn't followed. Both consumers and businesses feel good about the future, but they aren't investing as much as expected.

An October Surprise? Making Sense of the Market Mayhem!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 29 Oct 18
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment strategy Behavioral Finance Economic Trends Risk management
  1. It's important to stay calm and avoid making hasty decisions during market drops. Taking a moment to breathe and disconnect from constant news can help keep your mind clear.
  2. Assessing the situation carefully is crucial. Look at the facts behind the market movements instead of jumping to conclusions about what's causing the drops.
  3. Sticking to your investment strategy is key. Don't let fear lead you to stray from your goals, and regularly evaluate your stocks to ensure they still fit your plan.

The Search for Investment Serenity: The Look Back Test!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 20 Apr 15
💰 Finance Investing Valuation Behavioral Finance Market Analysis Risk management
  1. Investors should regularly review their past investments to make better decisions. This means questioning whether to buy, hold, or sell based on current valuations.
  2. It's important to be open about mistakes and avoid emotional decision-making in investing. Being transparent can help you learn and improve your strategy.
  3. Having a balanced approach to investing is key. Too much faith can lead to ignoring potential issues, while too little can cause you to abandon good investments too soon.

Illusion, Perception and Reality: Stock Splits and Index Inclusions

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 01 Sep 20
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Valuation Market Trends Behavioral Finance
  1. Stock splits and index inclusions may seem unimportant, but they impact market behavior. They can cause prices to move even without changes in a company's real value.
  2. Value events, gap events, and pricing events are all different types of stock market occurrences. Each type changes prices in different ways, whether by affecting value, closing price gaps, or changing investor sentiment.
  3. Traders often react to stock splits and index changes to capitalize on market momentum. However, long-term investors should focus on fundamentals instead of getting swayed by these temporary market changes.