Astral Codex Ten • 25534 implied HN points • 18 Feb 26
- U.S. violent and property crime rates are at or near historic lows, with the murder rate possibly the lowest in 250 years and many crimes at multi-decade lows.
- The decline looks real rather than just underreporting, because independent victim surveys, consistently reported crimes like car theft, and murder counts all show similar downward trends.
- Improved medical care doesn’t explain the drop in murders—lethality per violent incident has stayed stable or injuries have grown worse—and researchers offer multiple plausible explanations (technology, policing, demographics, lead decline, etc.) without a single agreed cause.