The hottest Economics Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Business Topics

Best of March in Asia-Pacific

kalanis • 216 implied HN points • 05 Apr 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Don't get trapped in chasing productivity without focusing on the right problems.
  2. Vietnam's coffee culture has survived despite a low number of Starbucks locations.
  3. China's aging population may lead to economic challenges similar to Japan's lost decade.

Economics Links, 2/15/2025

In My Tribe • 243 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The European Union may have created a big, slow government that doesn't serve its people well. Some believe smaller countries manage their affairs better.
  2. Importing goods doesn't always harm jobs; a trade deficit can actually mean a strong economy. More spending and demand can lead to more jobs, not fewer.
  3. Becoming successful on platforms like Substack is tough. It often takes a large existing following or writing about popular subjects to grow your audience.

Earnings Season

Human Capitalist • 39 implied HN points • 13 Jun 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Companies that grow their sales teams tend to see their stock prices rise. This shows that a bigger sales team can mean better future earnings.
  2. On the other hand, companies that cut their sales teams often experience a drop in market value. This suggests they may be less confident in selling their products.
  3. There may be other human capital factors that also relate to stock performance, and it's worth exploring these connections further. There could be more signs that predict how well a company will do financially.

The Berlin Wall has fallen, but Germany remains divided

Back To Sifar • 59 implied HN points • 14 Apr 24
🌍 World Politics Economics
  1. Western and Eastern Germany remain vastly different today due to historical events like the Cold War and post-World War 2 division.
  2. Significant disparities exist between Western and Eastern Germany in areas like religion, GDP per capita, and political tendencies, reflecting the lasting impact of past economic and political decisions.
  3. Investments in developing the Eastern part of Germany are ongoing, aiming to bridge the gap and achieve true unity in the country.

The return of the press release

Alex's Personal Blog • 98 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Press releases are becoming more important again because companies want to share news, and AI tools are hungry for information. This makes companies release more press releases to get noticed in AI searches.
  2. With the rise of AI, press releases may start to be longer and more focused on providing a lot of information instead of being catchy for humans. This could change the way companies communicate important updates.
  3. As press releases grow more valuable, companies may make bolder claims without the usual human skepticism. This means PR work will become even busier and might lean more on AI tools.
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Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 13 Apr 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Market corrections can happen quickly, but historically, the S&P 500 often recovers most losses in just a few months. It's usually better for long-term investors to hold on rather than sell during downturns.
  2. Apple is working to integrate AI into its products, aiming to boost sales, especially in its Mac line. However, the overall impact might not be enough to offset current weaknesses in iPhone sales.
  3. Several tech companies are expected to see significant sales growth in the coming years. Nvidia, Micron, and Shopify are leading the way, showing that tech is still a strong sector for investment.

💥💥 Two takes on America’s emerging (maybe) productivity boom

Faster, Please! • 822 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. There are signs of a significant economic transformation with productivity growth outpacing historical averages.
  2. The American economy may be experiencing a new productivity boom, setting it apart from other advanced economies.
  3. The recent productivity upshift is likely a response to a tight hiring environment, prompting firms to boost efficiency and automation.

Most Human Wins

Not Boring by Packy McCormick • 270 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. As technology advances, many skills we thought were unique to humans are becoming easier for machines to do. However, this doesn't mean that humans are being made irrelevant; rather, we need to find what makes us unique.
  2. The process of commoditization means that things that were once rare and valuable are now easier and cheaper to access. This opens up new opportunities for what skills can be considered valuable in a changing economy.
  3. It’s important to adapt and use the tools at our disposal creatively. As machines take over more tasks, we should focus on our human strengths and experiences, making them central to our endeavors.

The Knowledge Problem and Institutions

Knowledge Problem • 196 implied HN points • 25 Oct 23
🚌 Education Economics
  1. The knowledge problem is pervasive among individuals and socially, impacting coordination and decision-making among agents.
  2. Different types of knowledge problems exist, such as complexity and contextual knowledge problems, affecting decision-making and outcomes.
  3. Institutional design should consider the knowledge problem, as institutions interact with preferences and the environment to shape individual actions and interactions.

Top Links 558 Lending against chips. Cuba's oil collapse. India's financial revolution & Unger on our counterrevolutionary interlude.

Chartbook • 357 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. There's a growing trend of lending money using chips as collateral, which shows a new way to finance activities. It's like using your poker chips to get cash when you need it!
  2. Cuba's oil industry is facing major challenges, leading to significant changes in the economy there. This might affect everyday life for many Cubans.
  3. India is undergoing a financial revolution that is reshaping how its economy works. This could create more opportunities for people and businesses in the country.

Back of the envelope estimate of mortgage crackdown

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The number of mortgages has decreased significantly since the housing crisis. This drop is around 15 million more than normal due to stricter lending practices.
  2. Even with the growing adult population, fewer households are being formed, resulting in a shortfall of around 13 million mortgages that would have typically been expected.
  3. Long-term trends show fewer people per household and more unmarried adults, which contribute to the reduced demand for mortgages and homes.

Top Links 548 A productivity surge in the US oil industry. Taiwan's AI exports. The price of data and Joan Didion putting the boot in.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. The US oil industry is experiencing a big boost in productivity, which is likely affecting the overall economy.
  2. Taiwan is making significant strides in AI exports, indicating growth in tech and innovation in the region.
  3. There are rising concerns about the value of data in today's world, reflecting how important and expensive information has become.

Thesis Drift

MD&A • 118 implied HN points • 29 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Investing can be a fun and intellectually stimulating puzzle, similar to solving crosswords or watching movies. If you enjoy it, picking stocks can be a rewarding hobby even if it's not always financially beneficial.
  2. Thesis drift is when investors create new reasons to hold onto a stock after their original reasons have failed. Instead of admitting they were wrong and moving on, they keep justifying their position and often end up losing more money.
  3. In both investing and life, it's important to recognize when a strategy isn't working. Instead of sticking to failed ideas, we should be willing to change course and learn from our mistakes to find better paths.

Top Links 610 China's procyclical fiscal. Whole Foods v. Trader Joe's. Pakistan's surprise rally & chess dominance.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. China's fiscal policy has become procyclical, which means it is tightening when the economy needs support. This could actively hinder economic recovery in challenging times.
  2. Whole Foods and Trader Joe's represent contrasting business models, with Whole Foods focusing on premium offerings and Trader Joe's emphasizing value and unique products. This highlights different consumer preferences in grocery shopping.
  3. Pakistan experienced an unexpected rally, demonstrating resilience in its economy, alongside notable achievements in chess. This showcases the potential for growth and excellence in different fields, even in difficult circumstances.

Putin's Recession

Diane Francis • 499 implied HN points • 05 Jan 23
🌍 World Politics Economics
  1. The war between Russia and Ukraine is causing major economic problems worldwide, including inflation and slow growth. It's clear that the conflict is not ending soon and will have lasting effects.
  2. Economic forecasts for 2023 are not looking good, with many experts predicting recessions in Europe and slow growth globally. Despite this, some polls show that many people are still hopeful for improvement compared to last year.
  3. There are rising tensions worldwide, with countries like the US and NATO increasing military spending. Meanwhile, there's a chance for stronger unity in Europe against threats, particularly from Russia.

What is the Democrats' problem?

America in Crisis • 79 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Good economic statistics and better messaging won't solve Democrats' problems
  2. Democratic voters often prioritize noneconomic reasons over economic issues when voting
  3. The loss of the economic message by Democrats since the 1970s has contributed to challenges in gaining electoral support

The invisible hand screws up your regression

Economic Forces • 19 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Because prices link firms, workers, and markets, difference-in-differences estimates pick up relative changes across units (the slope) but miss common, economy-wide level shifts that get absorbed by fixed effects — the “missing intercept.”
  2. Treatment spillovers mean control groups are almost never untouched, so naively scaling a micro DiD coefficient up to an aggregate shock can be very misleading; the true aggregate effect could be much smaller or much larger than the naive calculation.
  3. To learn the aggregate or policy-relevant effect you need economic structure or extra identifying assumptions; techniques like synthetic DiD fix pre-trends but cannot recover common, market-wide shocks without a structural model.

Lessons learned from Ford's assembly line

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Ford's assembly line made car production much faster, cutting down assembly time from 12 hours to just 90 minutes. This allowed Ford to produce cars more efficiently.
  2. By dropping the price of the Model T from $850 to under $300, Ford made cars affordable for many more people. This helped him sell over 15 million Model Ts by 1927.
  3. Henry Ford also raised workers' wages to $5 a day, which was double the average wage. This not only reduced turnover but also allowed workers to buy the cars they made.

Top Links 593 How tariffs on imports from Mexico would hurt the US. Chinese v. Indian education. The rare whiskey bubble bursts & the danger of melting permafrost.

Chartbook • 300 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Tariffs on imports from Mexico could lead to negative effects for the US economy, as they might raise prices and reduce access to goods.
  2. There is an ongoing comparison between the education systems of China and India, highlighting their differences and impacts on global development.
  3. The rare whiskey market is experiencing a decline, which shows the risks of investment in specialized products, along with concerns about climate change affecting permafrost.

Links - 10/18/2023

Value Investing World • 196 implied HN points • 18 Oct 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Berkshire Hathaway doesn't have a set strategy, they react to opportunities
  2. Read articles by Paul Graham, James Montier, and Ben Thompson
  3. Subscribe to Value Investing World for access to full post archives and a 7-day free trial

How to Imbue the Basic Models of Biology With a Positive Vision of the Future

Maximum Progress • 196 implied HN points • 18 Oct 23
🔬 Science Economics
  1. Basic biological models suggest a narrative of exponential growth followed by collapse.
  2. Biology offers a positive vision of the future through sustainable population growth without new resources, like Rubisco enzyme evolution.
  3. Evolutionary innovations, such as the human brain, enable sustainable growth and prosperity, creating a bridge between ecological and economic perspectives.

Top Links 539 Peru's blueberry boom. El Salvador's $1 billion US-backed loan & the legacy of migrant jails.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Peru is seeing a big increase in blueberry production, which is good for its economy. Blueberries are becoming a popular export from the country.
  2. El Salvador has received a $1 billion loan from the US, which is aimed at improving economic conditions. This is part of a larger effort to support the country's development.
  3. There is ongoing discussion about the long-lasting effects of migrant jails. These facilities have complex legacies that affect many communities.

Platform Papers 2023 Year in Review

Platform Papers • 139 implied HN points • 19 Dec 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. 2023 had a record number of articles on platform competition research, with a 16% increase from the previous year.
  2. Marketing articles in platform competition research saw significant growth, accounting for 27% of published articles in 2023.
  3. The main themes in platform competition research covered network effects, platform pricing, winner-takes-all dynamics, and ecosystem governance, highlighting the impact of platforms on their ecosystems.

Unbundling the Job

State of the Future • 91 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Jobs used to provide more than just income; they offered stability and social security. Now, this connection is breaking down, and we need to rethink how people can find support.
  2. With AI changing how work is done, many entry-level jobs are becoming less structured. Tasks that used to teach skills are being automated, making it harder for new workers to learn and grow.
  3. As traditional job structures weaken, we need new systems to support people. This means finding ways to provide benefits like health care and security without needing a full-time job.

If AI Is So Great, Someone Should Tell GDP

The Algorithmic Bridge • 222 implied HN points • 05 Mar 25
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. AI investments have been rising, but there's not much difference in overall economic growth or productivity. This makes us question if spending so much on AI is really worthwhile.
  2. Companies are unsure whether it's better to invest heavily in new AI technology or to optimize what they already have. It’s a tricky balance to strike.
  3. Despite the hype around AI, it hasn't significantly improved things like GDP or human well-being. It's clear that AI is still looking for its true role in boosting our economy.

Short Takes #1

Am I Stronger Yet? • 125 implied HN points • 16 Jun 25
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. AI is changing cybersecurity, but it’s hard to predict how it will affect us. Experts are discussing the right questions to understand its impact.
  2. Meta AI is possibly having a bigger influence than we think, especially in emerging economies. Many people are using it regularly in their daily apps.
  3. AI models are evolving, and their new skills might bring both benefits and risks. There’s a growing concern that they could share harmful information as they get smarter.

Aura of Success: The First Years of Japan's Privatized National Railways

S(ubstack)-Bahn • 341 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. Japan's privatized national railways, known as JR, started with a big public celebration but hid serious financial issues. The debt from the old national rail system was moved to a new agency, allowing JR to look profitable right from the start.
  2. To make the railways seem successful, the government cut jobs and weakened labor unions, which helped JR reduce costs and shift focus to customer service, making it appear more efficient.
  3. While JR showed initial profitability and ridership growth, the reality is that public funding and clever accounting masked ongoing financial struggles, leading to a significant government bailout years later.

Luxuries Making Us Miserable

Inland Nobody • 80 implied HN points • 07 Aug 25
🎭️ Culture Economics
  1. We have a lot of choices and luxuries today, which can be overwhelming. Sometimes, having too many options makes it hard to decide what to spend on.
  2. It's important to think about how much joy each purchase brings us. Not everything we buy will make us happy, so we should focus on what truly matters.
  3. Learning to limit our spending and find balance is a helpful skill. We should spend less on things we don't care about to enjoy the things we love more.

Figma’s IPO range is a little light

Alex's Personal Blog • 98 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Figma has set its IPO price range at $25 to $28 per share, which is lower than expected compared to its past valuation of $20 billion. This pricing may attract mixed reactions from investors.
  2. Anthropic and OpenAI are facing challenges in raising funds and scaling their AI efforts, showing that the competition in AI is intense and requires significant investment.
  3. Ambiq, another company preparing for an IPO, is noted for its low-power AI chips but faces uncertainties due to its exiting the Chinese market. Its pricing may be viewed as risky or promising, depending on future growth.

LIVE AT DEMOCRACY JOURNAL: Reviewing John Cassidy's "Capitalism & Its Critics"

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 107 implied HN points • 02 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Capitalism has a strong ability to adapt and change, even in tough times. It constantly finds new ways to survive and reinvent itself.
  2. Critics of capitalism present many ideas, but they often lack a clear, unified plan. Their concerns are important and reflect deep societal issues.
  3. The main way capitalism communicates is through pricing, but this system can fail. It doesn't always provide the information needed for effective decision-making.

#10: Why do cruise ships keep getting bigger? And will it ever stop?

Bureau of Adventure • 99 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
🏝 Travel Economics
  1. Cruise ships are getting bigger mainly because larger ships can serve more passengers at a lower cost per person. This helps cruise companies make more money but also leads to some criticism.
  2. Sustainability is another big reason for bigger ships. As companies aim for net-zero emissions by 2050, larger and more efficient ships help them meet those environmental goals.
  3. Despite the trend of bigger ships, there are limits. Some destinations can't handle large ships due to physical restrictions and tourism infrastructure, which may keep smaller ships in demand.

Links - 02/05/2024

Value Investing World • 98 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Understanding businesses is crucial for investment decisions.
  2. Learning from successful investors like Warren Buffett is valuable.
  3. Accessing relevant and insightful resources is essential for making informed investment choices.

American Economic History: Introduction

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 253 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
🚌 Education Economics
  1. The course will focus on American economic history without trying to create a single, simple story. Instead, it will look at different themes and questions week by week.
  2. An important question will be whether America is exceptional and in what ways. This can help us better understand history and economics.
  3. Students will not only learn about historical events but also get a taste of data science to analyze economic models and improve their analytical skills.

How Tariffs Are Breaking US Trade

Apricitas Economics • 123 implied HN points • 15 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Tariffs are causing a big rise in costs for American consumers, with the government collecting record amounts from tariffs, which is hitting wallets hard.
  2. There has been a major drop in trade with China, with imports like electronics and vehicles seeing huge declines, making it harder for American businesses to get supplies.
  3. The ongoing trade war has created a lot of uncertainty, leading to unstable trade patterns and affecting exports to important partners like Canada and Mexico.

Economics Links, 2/10/2025

In My Tribe • 227 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Phil Gramm and Larry Summers believe that tariffs harm economic growth and could lead to trade wars. They recommend against implementing broad tariffs.
  2. Aswath Damodaran discusses how the entry of DeepSeek could change the AI landscape, creating both low-cost alternatives and maintaining a premium market for AI.
  3. Magatte Wade argues that Africa's poverty is largely due to over-regulation and difficult business conditions, making it hard to trade and grow economically.

Election Links

In My Tribe • 364 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Elections are needed for people to give up power, but they often lead to fear and anger, making them tough to navigate. It can feel like a necessary evil.
  2. Mainstream economists are worried that neither candidate is addressing serious economic issues, like the future of Social Security and Medicare. It's frustrating when major problems aren't talked about honestly.
  3. Critics say some proposals, like expanding Medicare or helping first-time homebuyers, could actually lead to higher costs for everyone. Policies might sound good but can have unexpected negative effects in the long run.

Network Effects (part 1)

The Odin Times • 196 implied HN points • 04 Jul 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Network effects occur when a product or service becomes more valuable as more people use it.
  2. Standard Oil leveraged network effects to dominate the oil industry by controlling the entire supply chain.
  3. Modern economy relies on network effects, with companies like Google and Apple benefiting from data and platform network effects.

The Macro Story of SVB Isn't Just About the Fed

Without Warning • 196 implied HN points • 05 Jul 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. SVB's business model relies heavily on uninsured deposits to support the innovation sector.
  2. The narrative around SVB's challenges involves blaming the Fed for its interest rate policies and the impact on bank assets and liabilities.
  3. The uniqueness of SVB's model in banking the Silicon Valley innovation economy raises questions about regulatory changes and potential consequences for American innovation.

The case for a weirder economy

Known Unknowns • 196 implied HN points • 22 May 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Monetary policy is at a historic inflection point, requiring expertise in financial markets.
  2. Inheritance taxes should be increased for wealth redistribution and better tax enforcement.
  3. Maintaining weirdness and innovation is vital in a world that favors conformity.