The hottest Economics Substack posts right now

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May 2025 Updates

New Things Under the Sun • 160 implied HN points • 27 May 25
🔬 Science Economics
  1. Recent studies show that government funding for research and development (R&D) yields high returns. Estimates suggest that every dollar spent on non-defense government R&D could generate benefits worth up to 210%.
  2. The composition of R&D funding has changed over the years. While support for applied research has dropped, funding for basic research has remained stable as a fraction of GDP.
  3. A significant research paper claiming that AI boosts innovation was retracted due to issues with the data and its credibility. This highlights the need for careful evaluation of research, especially when it could have major implications.

Top Links 550 Buffett's cash pile. China's copper push. IKEA and GDR prison labor & the UK as "Butler to the World"

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Warren Buffett has a huge amount of cash saved up. This shows he is waiting for the right investment opportunities to come along.
  2. China is putting a lot of effort into boosting its copper industry. This could have big effects on global markets and trade.
  3. There are serious concerns about IKEA's involvement with past prison labor. This raises questions about ethical practices in big companies.

Supply AND Demand

Knowledge Problem • 235 implied HN points • 05 May 23
🔬 Science Economics
  1. Market value is determined by the interaction of supply and demand, allowing for price discovery.
  2. The traditional assumption in the electricity industry of fixed supply catering to demand is becoming obsolete due to digital technologies enabling flexible demand.
  3. Digital technologies and dynamic pricing are empowering consumers to have more control over their electricity bills and contribute to a greener future.
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stuck in the moat

Dan Davies - "Back of Mind" • 235 implied HN points • 12 May 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. The concept of a 'moat' in business, popularized by Warren Buffet, has been misunderstood and misapplied by many.
  2. The original idea behind a 'moat' was to protect a business's unique advantage, not simply to create barriers through legal means.
  3. The focus on 'moats' led to a shift in management attention towards maintaining profits through artificial means rather than product improvement.

Shareholder Primacy Culture and American Decline

America in Crisis • 59 implied HN points • 23 Apr 24
💼 Business Economics
  1. The current economic system in the US, based on shareholder primacy culture, is facing challenges due to extreme asset valuations and one-sided interventions by the Federal Reserve.
  2. The decline of American civilization is attributed to a shift towards monumental financial architecture under shareholder value pursuit, leading to a lack of capacity for real production.
  3. Under shareholder primacy culture, America may struggle to compete with rising global powers like Russia and China due to a focus on financial gains over tangible achievements.

What's Holding Up Progress?

In My Tribe • 410 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. Self-driving taxis could change the way we think about car ownership. They might make owning a personal car feel less safe over time.
  2. Many great ideas from the past are still unused because of rules and culture blocking them. There's a huge potential in reviving these old ideas in new ways.
  3. Regulations are slowing down progress, especially in Europe. The rules are making it harder for economies to grow, even though they should be benefiting from things like a big market.

🗽🧠 Pro-immigration policy and mutual brain gain: A Quick Q&A with … economist Gaurav Khanna

Faster, Please! • 365 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Immigration benefits workers in both the US and India. It leads to better job opportunities and innovation in both countries.
  2. Indian students often pursue IT skills to try for jobs in the US. Even those who don't make it can help grow India's own tech sector.
  3. The US gains when foreign students study there, even if they return home. Their presence supports local schools and boosts the economy.

What Does “exploit” Mean?

David Friedman’s Substack • 287 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
📖 Philosophy Economics
  1. The term 'exploit' can mean two different things: benefiting from an interaction or causing one party to lose while the other gains. It's important to differentiate these meanings to understand whether exploitation is actually happening.
  2. In some cases, people feel that exploitation occurs when there is a big difference in gains between two parties, like in the example of trading cards or water in the desert. However, the fairness of a transaction can depend on additional context.
  3. People may have strong feelings about what is fair or unfair in transactions based on their moral intuitions. These feelings can guide opinions about exploitation, even when the actual economic circumstances suggest a different view.

Slack and Capacity in Housing

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 07 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Housing construction is limited by supply issues, not just high interest rates. This means more homes can still be built despite financial challenges.
  2. Data and analysis can help understand the constraints in each housing market. Tracking these factors shows the real obstacles to construction.
  3. It's important to recognize the various factors causing delays or difficulties in housing development. Understanding these can help address the housing shortage problem.

The Fed's Repo Defensive: Part II

Concoda • 367 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The Fed's Repo Facility helps provide emergency cash loans to banks when needed. This is crucial during times of financial stress to keep the market stable.
  2. Recently, there have been instances where dealers didn't fully utilize the available funds in the repo facility, indicating issues with how it's being accessed. This suggests that the process needs improvements to encourage more usage.
  3. The Fed is looking to make changes to the repo facility to fix its shortcomings and ensure dealers can quickly and efficiently obtain emergency funds when crises arise.

🧪⚛🧬 Broken promises: CHIPS Act funding for science research falls short

Faster, Please! • 822 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. Despite promises made in the CHIPS and Science Act, Congress significantly underfunded key agencies and programs for scientific research, hindering progress in fields like artificial intelligence.
  2. Investment in basic scientific research, often a public good with long-term benefits beyond immediate financial gains, is essential for innovation and societal advancement.
  3. Government-funded R&D has historically played a crucial role in business sector productivity growth, supporting the argument for increased federal spending on research and development.

Top Links 621 The eclipse of the primary dealers. Trading real for bitcoin. A nightmare underground & the unconquered.

Chartbook • 300 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Primary dealers in finance are facing tough times managing a huge amount of government debt, which is pushing $50 trillion. This could change how they operate and their importance on Wall Street.
  2. There is a growing trend of people trading traditional currency for Bitcoin, indicating a shift in how we think about money. This could lead to big changes in the financial landscape.
  3. The concept of a 'nightmare underground' suggests that there are hidden issues or challenges in the financial world that need to be addressed. Recognizing these problems is essential for understanding the bigger picture.

Dirty Work: The Return of Blue Collar

State of the Future • 144 implied HN points • 04 Jun 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. AI is taking over many white-collar jobs, especially those that are routine and easily automated. Many of these roles aren't as valuable as we once thought.
  2. There are plenty of blue-collar jobs available that can provide real satisfaction and meaning. These jobs often require skills that AI cannot replicate.
  3. Blue-collar jobs are likely to gain more respect and higher status in the future. We should encourage young people to consider these careers now.

Top Links 620 Sanewashing & Starmaggedon. Congress really is at an impasse & would Lenin really have approved of the IMF?

Chartbook • 300 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Congress is currently stuck and unable to make decisions effectively. This shows how divided and complicated politics can be.
  2. There's talk about Britain's bond yields reaching concerning levels, but it's important to consider the larger global context. U.S. bond yields are also very high right now.
  3. The discussion around whether Lenin would approve of the IMF brings up interesting questions about economics and political ideology. It encourages us to think about how different philosophies view financial institutions.

Natural Capitalism is a Fallacy

JoeWrote • 104 implied HN points • 02 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Many people confuse capitalism with markets. Markets can exist in different systems, but capitalism is specifically about private ownership of production.
  2. Capitalism isn't a natural part of human existence; it was created and is maintained by those who benefit from it. This is an important distinction in discussions about economic systems.
  3. A big reason people defend capitalism is that it's easier to say it's natural than to argue why the private ownership of companies should stay as it is. This simplification can mislead discussions about alternatives.

Top Links 549 Markets holding their breath. BBQ and shale productivity. Liberal academia & the Space Force.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Markets seem to be very tense right now. People are watching closely for changes and updates.
  2. BBQ and shale productivity are highlighted as important topics. These areas are crucial in economic discussions.
  3. There's a mention of the intersection between liberal academia and the Space Force. This could spark interesting debates and insights.

Top Links 557 Inflation worries and the US bond market. Russian oil mega merger. Van Gogh & the art of dying.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Inflation concerns are becoming a big issue again for the US bond market. This can affect interest rates and borrowing costs for everyone.
  2. There is a significant merger happening in the Russian oil sector. This might change the landscape of oil supply and prices globally.
  3. Van Gogh's life and art are being explored in a new way, touching on themes of mortality and creativity. His work continues to inspire deep reflections on life and death.

Scaling Laws Meet Economics, but Adoption is still Accelerating

Mule’s Musings • 333 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. Economics are very important when it comes to scaling tech, and while costs are rising, tools like ChatGPT are still becoming more popular. Understanding the balance of cost and usage is crucial.
  2. Scaling laws are changing, and relying solely on large pre-trained models may not be the best strategy anymore. Businesses might need to explore smaller models or alternative methods to improve efficiency and reduce costs.
  3. Adoption of AI technologies is still growing rapidly, which shows that despite challenges, many people are eager to use and integrate these tools into their lives.

Top Links 628 Will IPOs recover? Worrying about France. The chances of a new pandemic & atomic spaghetti.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. IPOs have been quiet even though US stocks are doing well. This surprises some people.
  2. There's a concern about France and its current issues. People are paying attention to what could happen next.
  3. Discussions about new pandemics and food safety are becoming important. It's a reminder that we need to stay informed and be cautious.

Doofuses That Write About Economics

Points And Figures • 852 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. The author criticizes mainstream media for lacking understanding in economic analysis, particularly in their coverage of immigration and its impact.
  2. The author argues against the notion that illegal immigrants bring economic benefits, highlighting the importance of considering opportunity costs and the true impact on wages.
  3. The author suggests a solution to the issue of illegal immigration by advocating for securing borders and deporting all illegal immigrants, emphasizing the potential cost savings in comparison to housing them.

Recommended Reading, Part III: Economics

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 791 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
🚌 Education Economics
  1. The physiocratic curriculum delves deep into economics, highlighting a long reading list and raising unanswered questions.
  2. Classical economics is explored starting with Richard Cantillon, followed by influential figures like Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and Henry George.
  3. Alternative economic theories include Austrian economics, Austro-Classical synthesis, and American School, offering unique perspectives on trade, tariffs, and government intervention.

Utilizing Cosmic Expansion: Innovative Solutions to Earth's Challenges

Space Ambition • 239 implied HN points • 28 Jul 23
🔬 Science Economics
  1. Space exploration could help solve major problems on Earth, including politics, economics, and ecology. By looking to colonize other planets, we can innovate and create better technologies.
  2. Trade between Earth and colonies on Mars could lead to peaceful relationships. Instead of fighting over resources, countries might cooperate to improve their economies.
  3. Moving some industries to space can benefit the Earth's environment. This shift could create new jobs and help us manage resources better, supporting sustainability goals.

Thinking Long-term

Splattern • 39 implied HN points • 24 May 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Thinking about the long-term can help you focus less on short-term numbers and more on overall growth.
  2. Investing combines both art and science, making it a unique approach to managing money.
  3. Experience in investment is valuable, and learning from seasoned investors can provide important insights.

Why Housing Vouchers Need a YIMBY Movement

The New Urban Order • 139 implied HN points • 02 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. YIMBY movement has had significant successes in housing reforms, but the impact on housing supply and affordability is uncertain.
  2. While YIMBYism appeals to various political ideologies, it may not address the need for subsidized housing for the growing number of Americans in poverty.
  3. Advocating for the expansion of project-based vouchers, which offer federally guaranteed rent and simplify affordable housing development, could be a more pragmatic and cross-over approach embraced by developers and policymakers.

ASML 2024 Q4 Financials

More Than Moore • 280 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. ASML had a great Q4 in 2024, with revenue hitting €9.3 billion, which is a 28% increase from the previous year. This makes it their highest earning quarter ever.
  2. The company shipped a total of 132 lithography machines in Q4, marking a strong demand for their products. They even sold their first High-NA EUV systems during this time.
  3. For 2025, ASML expects to continue growing with projected revenue between €30 billion and €35 billion. They are optimistic about increased sales in the AI chip market.

AI is yet another platform shift

Generating Conversation • 280 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. AI is a big change in technology, similar to how the printing press changed information sharing. It will automate some jobs but also create many new opportunities.
  2. As AI makes tasks cheaper and easier, more people will want to use these services. This means new demands and markets will open up that we didn't see before.
  3. For AI to be successful, it needs to work well with what businesses are already doing, and building trust with customers is very important.

Top Links 559 Will there be dollar-renminbi dramas in garbage time? Central bank independence in SE Asia & Sartre, Anderson, Jameson.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. There could be important developments regarding the dollar and renminbi exchange rates in the near future. This might affect global economics significantly.
  2. The independence of central banks in Southeast Asia is a key topic worth watching. Their decisions can impact regional economies and policies.
  3. The work and ideas of philosophers like Sartre, Anderson, and Jameson are still relevant today. They offer interesting perspectives that connect to current issues.

Defusing the Depopulation Bomb

The Future, Now and Then • 103 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. The birth rate is decreasing globally, and if it stays below 2.0 babies per couple, the world population will eventually shrink. This is a significant trend we should pay attention to.
  2. The book discusses the idea of boosting population numbers but doesn't fully address arguments against excessive population growth or the refusal to consider people's personal choices in having children.
  3. The authors miss the chance to suggest positive family policies that would help people today, instead of framing the issue as an urgent crisis for the future.

NUMERI ASTRONOMICI

ANDREA CECCHI Newsletter • 216 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Debt levels in America are rapidly increasing, with the first trillion taking 185 years and next trillion completed in just 6 months.
  2. Inflation can silently grow over time, culminating in a sudden and severe loss when it's too late, as seen in the case of Zimbabwe.
  3. The USA is dealing with unbelievably large numbers, including trillions and quadrillions, due to factors like derivatives.

Credit Crash In AI Names

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 37 implied HN points • 08 Nov 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Credit markets are starting to reveal truths about companies that the stock market has been ignoring. This means that financial realities are becoming clearer.
  2. Companies like Nvidia, OpenAI, Microsoft, and CoreWeave are linked through investments and agreements. This creates a situation where they rely on each other too much.
  3. When companies have too many intertwined relationships, it can be risky. If one company struggles, it can create problems for the others in the network.

Capitalism put an end to systematic warfare

Wood From Eden • 960 implied HN points • 11 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics Economics
  1. Capitalism led to the decline of systematic warfare as the main way for producers to compete.
  2. Human evolution has been a struggle between individual and group selection, where societies with best productivity survived wars.
  3. The shift to the market economy allowed producers to compete directly, promoting productivity without the need for destructive warfare.

What is Your Life Worth?

Economic Forces • 9 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
💼 Business Economics
  1. People reveal how much they value life through choices like buying insurance, spending on health, and taking risky jobs, and economists use those choices to compute a "statistical value of life" (e.g., via wage premia).
  2. Empirical estimates place the statistical value of life in the millions of dollars and show it rising over time; as incomes and life expectancy rise, people tend to demand and pay more for safety.
  3. Price theory lets us put dollar values on non-market goods, so up-to-date value-of-life estimates are essential for sensible policy and cost–benefit decisions about safety and regulation.

Index funds: everything you need to know

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 199 implied HN points • 27 Oct 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Index funds are a way to invest in a group of stocks without having to pick individual ones. They are designed to follow a certain market index, making them a good choice for beginners.
  2. Investing in index funds usually costs less than actively managed funds, and they are less volatile over time. This means they can offer a safer investment option with decent returns.
  3. Index funds can be bought easily through brokerage accounts, and they often have low barriers to entry. This makes them accessible for everyday investors looking to grow their money.

Anti-Communism and 20th-century Economics

In My Tribe • 865 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
🚌 Education Economics
  1. Great economists of the 20th century were motivated by the conflict between capitalism and communism.
  2. There was a trade-off between freedom and economic pain, with differing views on how to handle it.
  3. The focus of 21st century intellectuals has shifted to issues like climate change and terrorism, moving away from the economic debates of the past.

The Sun Shines Through Glass House

Mindset Value • 216 implied HN points • 15 May 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Glass House had a strong first quarter with impressive sales and cost management
  2. The company's greenhouse has significant cost and quality advantages over competitors
  3. Glass House has potential for exponential growth in the long term

Towards a new Golden Generation

Japan Optimist • 216 implied HN points • 24 Jul 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Japan's young generation is set to be economically better off than their parents due to demographic changes.
  2. As labor supply decreases, wages and job quality are increasing in Japan, leading to a rise in full-time job creation.
  3. There is a shift in Japan towards valuing and investing in human capital as the country moves towards a new golden age for its young generation.

Best of April in Asia-Pacific

kalanis • 216 implied HN points • 12 May 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. The rise of hardtech corporate VCs in China signals a shift in the tech unicorn landscape.
  2. China's potential to surpass Japan in auto exports showcases the country's rapid economic growth.
  3. India's emergence as a major economic power signifies a shift in global wealth and influence.