The hottest Economics Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Business Topics

The Middle Path for AI

Future History • 260 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. AI is already affecting our lives in many ways, like helping with healthcare and driving. It's important to realize that while it can do good things, it can also have negative outcomes.
  2. Instead of seeing the future as only good or bad, we should focus on a balanced view. Many things in life are grey, and understanding the middle ground helps us prepare better for what AI can and will do.
  3. Governments using AI for control and surveillance can be dangerous. While AI can help detect problems like health issues quickly, it can also invade privacy and create a society where people are constantly monitored.

"Who is Robert Malone?" - Four Years Later

Who is Robert Malone • 20 implied HN points • 26 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Robert Malone started his Substack to share a mix of his thoughts on science, health, and personal life. It became a community for sharing experiences and supporting each other through tough times.
  2. He observed significant changes during Biden's presidency, like increased censorship and economic challenges due to COVID-19 policies. These issues affected many aspects of daily life.
  3. Malone also discussed the Omicron variant, emphasizing that it was less harmful but more contagious. He criticized misleading statements about its dangers coming from leaders during that time.

Payroll Preview & Return of the Policy Put

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 137 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The Federal Reserve may not raise rates if certain conditions are met, such as softening labor market data or 10-year Treasury rates staying near 5%.
  2. A sustainable rally in the Treasury and equity markets requires a rally in 2-year Treasuries to stabilize the banking system.
  3. To reduce damage to bank balance sheets and profitability, yield curve normalization with a starting point at 4.75% could be beneficial.

To Russia With Malice

Diane Francis • 579 implied HN points • 18 Jul 22
🌍 World Politics Economics
  1. McDonald's entry into Russia in 1990 symbolized a major shift, but its recent exit shows how far Russia has fallen. Many other companies are leaving too, leading to economic turmoil.
  2. Russia is experiencing serious economic problems due to sanctions and loss of educated citizens. As a result, the economy is shrinking, and many people are struggling with inflation and job losses.
  3. Despite short-term gains from energy exports, the long-term outlook for Russia is bleak. Many foreign investments are leaving, and the country is not well-equipped to handle these changes.

Universal Basic Income is the First Great Lie

PashaNomics • 2 implied HN points • 13 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Universal Basic Income is often the wrong response to automation and usually ignores where money actually comes from, making its economics incoherent. Large-scale UBI would amount to wealth redistribution and can create fiscal and demographic instability that makes it unsustainable.
  2. Funding UBI by heavily taxing AI firms is flawed because of the circular flow of money: taxes just shift money that must still come from somewhere, and AI value doesn’t always translate into large corporate profits due to costs, competition, and taxes.
  3. Universal Basic Shares is a proposed alternative where everyone owns one government share that pays dividends from annual surpluses, which aligns incentives for an efficient state. Paired with a simple uniform tax, it aims to preserve some egalitarian benefits without the destabilizing effects of broad redistribution.
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What Do They Want?

Points And Figures • 559 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Power is the ultimate goal for those in political positions, beyond money or economic profit.
  2. Political systems can be analyzed using economic theories like supply and demand curves applied to power dynamics.
  3. The push and pull between centralized and decentralized government is evident in various aspects, including cryptocurrency and tokenization.

Investing in Energy

Doomberg • 267 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Energy markets are influenced by fundamental rules that help predict their behavior. Understanding these rules is key to making smart investments.
  2. The energy sector is currently undergoing significant changes. It's important to stay updated on these shifts to find good investment opportunities.
  3. There are four main ways to invest in energy. Each method has different risks and rewards, so it’s crucial to evaluate them carefully before deciding.

In Search of a Steady State: Inflation, Interest Rates and Value

Musings on Markets • 679 implied HN points • 11 May 22
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Inflation has become a major issue for the economy, causing instability in markets with unpredictable effects on stock prices. Understanding inflation's impact is important for making investment decisions.
  2. As inflation rises, interest rates also climb, leading to increased borrowing costs and affecting how risky investments are perceived. This creates uncertainty for investors about how to respond.
  3. There are different potential outcomes for the economy based on inflation trends, ranging from a quick stabilization to severe recession risks. Investors need to adapt their strategies depending on which scenario seems more likely.

The Trillion Dollar Question

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 09 Nov 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Elon Musk's 2018 pay package was designed so he only earns if Tesla's market value increases a lot. This setup is meant to motivate him to help the company grow.
  2. Tesla's stock price rose dramatically, showing that big financial rewards can happen if a company performs well. The question is whether such a situation can occur again.
  3. The focus is on whether the same success can be repeated and what factors might lead to another significant rise in Tesla's value.

An Inflation Follow Up: The Disparate Effects on Companies

Musings on Markets • 659 implied HN points • 20 May 22
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Inflation affects companies differently, with some benefiting and others struggling. Investors are on the lookout for companies that can handle high inflation better.
  2. Companies with strong pricing power, low costs, and stable earnings tend to perform better during times of inflation. It's important for these companies to keep debts low and have short-term investment options.
  3. Historical trends show that small-cap and value stocks often outperform in high inflation periods. In 2022, stocks with solid cash flows and dividends have held their value better than riskier, money-losing companies.

Alice Evans on Acemoglu, et al

In My Tribe • 273 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
🎭️ Culture Economics
  1. Inclusive institutions are key for long-term economic success. This means that countries need both strong governments and engaged communities.
  2. Culture plays a big role in shaping institutions, and they're closely linked. This connection shows that neither controls the other; they influence each other.
  3. Censorship and ideological battles are significant issues today. Different groups try to control ideas and media, which can impact freedom and reform.

OpenAI could soon be worth a half-trilly

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 06 Aug 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. OpenAI is in talks to sell shares at a valuation of $500 billion, which is a significant milestone. This shows strong investor interest and confidence in the company's growth.
  2. The company has seen rapid revenue growth, recently hitting around $12 to $13 billion annually. With five million business customers now, OpenAI continues to show that it is meeting market demand.
  3. The release of new 'open' models is contributing to OpenAI's success, allowing it to establish a solid position in the competitive AI landscape.

Saturday morning open tabs

Scott's Substack • 78 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. The author discusses the challenge of balancing self-love with weight loss efforts.
  2. The author shares open tabs about various topics like causal inference, discrimination, and AI.
  3. The author reflects on articles they've read and their views on compassion and biased depictions of others.

James Burnham’s managerialism eighty years later

Global Inequality and More 3.0 • 558 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
🚌 Education Economics
  1. James Burnham proposed the concept of 'managerialism' as a replacement for capitalism, where managers rule while capitalists take a passive role.
  2. Burnham's predictions were proven wrong, but his analysis of the shift towards managerialism and the role of state in the economy remains relevant for reflection.
  3. Despite Burnham's inaccuracies, his ideas on managerial revolution and the potential for alternative economic systems in the future can still offer valuable insights.

Links to Consider, 10/13/2024

In My Tribe • 273 implied HN points • 13 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Urban areas are not friendly to big families, which contributes to decreasing birth rates. When people live in cities, they often have fewer children than those in suburbs.
  2. Social views on marriage and careers have shifted. Now, many see being a single working woman as more prestigious than being a married stay-at-home mom, which can affect family size.
  3. AI is changing the job market a lot, and there’s going to be a lot of job turnover. The official job numbers might not show the full picture of these changes.

People are worried about the cost of AI

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 04 Aug 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. There's a growing concern about the increasing costs of AI infrastructure, which is now taking up a significant portion of the economy. Many companies are investing heavily in new AI technology, which could lead to risks if this spending doesn't pay off.
  2. Despite such worries, some people believe the overall economy is large enough to withstand these shifts. It’s important not to panic because there are still many opportunities out there.
  3. Not all companies will benefit equally from the AI boom; while big tech firms may thrive, others could struggle if they can't keep up with the investments and innovations in AI.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 25 Nov 25
💰 Finance Economics
  1. National house prices have gone up by 1.3% over the past year, showing some growth but still not strong compared to the past.
  2. Different areas are seeing big differences in house prices, with some regions like the Middle Atlantic doing well while others like the Pacific are struggling.
  3. Overall, many areas are facing slower price appreciation, and high mortgage rates are making homes less affordable for buyers.

Brilliant Simplicity

David Friedman’s Substack • 242 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
🚌 Education Economics
  1. Brilliant individuals can contribute to knowledge in two main ways: through challenging, complex work and by highlighting simple ideas that others may overlook. Simple ideas often seem obvious once recognized.
  2. Examples like the median voter theorem and Coase's theories show how simple concepts can explain complex phenomena, such as election outcomes or the functioning of firms, making them essential in economics.
  3. Even in biology, like Darwin's theory of evolution, simple ideas can lead to significant insights, changing how we understand life and its development over time.

More Odds and Ends

David Friedman’s Substack • 170 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Tariffs can raise revenue for a country but may not be the best tax choice compared to broader taxes. A high tariff rate would require taxing a major portion of imports, which isn’t practical.
  2. Bigotry can stem from people's rigid mental models not matching reality. When someone or something doesn't fit cleanly into these models, it can create discomfort and irritation.
  3. Political polarization is increasing, and it might help if political parties were less sorted. Encouraging issues that don’t follow the typical left/right divide could lead to more cooperation between parties.

The Not-so-Lazy Holiday Reading List

Platforms, AI, and the Economics of BigTech • 11 implied HN points • 28 Dec 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. In a world where execution is cheap, restraint and reflection are advantages — do less of the wrong work and spend time deciding what really matters.
  2. Don’t just dig faster; make maps that show where to dig — focus on clarity, limits, and redesigning workflows rather than only improving speed.
  3. AI reshapes systems so answers get cheap; the lasting value comes from asking better questions, owning decision rights and governance, and re‑architecting around new units of value.

✨ The impact of AI and jobs: A Quick Q&A with … Daniel Rock of the Wharton School

Faster, Please! • 274 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
🕹 Technology Economics
  1. AI could become a general-purpose technology if it applies widely across many industries and leads to real changes in how we work. We need to see if it really changes innovation in significant ways.
  2. Many jobs could be affected by AI tools, with some reports suggesting that up to 46% of jobs could see more than half their tasks impacted. This shows how powerful AI might be in the workplace.
  3. It's likely that using AI will change not just individual tasks but also how organizations operate and make decisions. This means workplaces will need to adjust to new ways of working.

Apply to Cato University 2025

Bet On It • 80 implied HN points • 27 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Cato University 2025 is happening in Washington, DC. If you're interested, apply before June 30.
  2. There will be a road trip to Madison for some family events, and there’s a chance to meet locals along the way.
  3. A fun concert by My Chemical Romance is on August 15 in Philadelphia, and he's excited to connect with fans at the event.

What the hell is going on in Las Vegas?

Huddle Up • 59 implied HN points • 08 Aug 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Las Vegas is experiencing a big drop in tourism. Fewer people are visiting, leading to many empty hotel rooms and less money for casinos.
  2. In the first half of 2025, about 1.5 million less tourists came compared to the previous year. This decline is significant and has caused hotel occupancy rates to plummet.
  3. Many people believe the downturn might be linked to negative press and economic concerns. Also, Las Vegas may have overcharged visitors during its peak post-COVID times, hurting its long-term appeal.

Links to Consider, 11/2/24

In My Tribe • 243 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics
  1. Journalism can become too self-important, especially around political campaigns. This can make journalists feel like they are part of the story instead of just reporting it.
  2. In healthcare, knowing what you actually pay can help people make better choices. A transparent system can encourage people to think about costs and trade-offs.
  3. Economists notice many problems in policies that the average person may overlook. They also understand how economic rules can impact the working poor significantly.

The Most Important Thing About Money

DeFi Education • 779 implied HN points • 13 Feb 22
💰 Finance Economics
  1. Credit is really important for the economy because it allows people to spend more than they currently have. When used wisely, it can help grow productivity and income.
  2. Debt cycles can happen when people borrow too much compared to what they can pay back. This can lead to economic downturns if many people struggle with their debt at the same time.
  3. DeFi, or decentralized finance, uses credit within the crypto world. It helps create new financial opportunities using cryptocurrencies and is seen as the future of finance.

Luckin Coffee: From China’s Starbucks Slayer to a U.S. Newcomer

Gad’s Newsletter • 76 implied HN points • 07 Jul 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Luckin Coffee has opened its first stores in the U.S., challenging Starbucks with a tech-driven and low-cost business model from China. Unlike Starbucks, which focuses on a cozy café experience, Luckin aims for speed and affordability.
  2. In China, Luckin quickly rose to dominate the coffee market by capitalizing on growing coffee trends and offering cheaper prices, often around 30% less than Starbucks. Its strategy relies on small, efficient shops that serve customers through a mobile app.
  3. As Luckin enters the U.S., it faces higher operational costs and strong competition from established brands. It's likely to focus on novelty and convenience rather than just price, trying to carve out a niche among younger consumers.

What Makes A Market A Market?

Knowledge Problem • 137 implied HN points • 06 Jul 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Economics focuses on how people coordinate actions through market mechanisms as knowledge ecosystems.
  2. The integrity of price signals is crucial for evaluating market institutions.
  3. All markets are a combination of emergent and designed practices governed by specific rules.

From Pencils to Politics

Sam’s Newsletter • 137 implied HN points • 11 Jun 23
📖 Philosophy Economics
  1. People and institutions should focus on error correction rather than seeking unattainable perfection.
  2. Error-correcting institutions in politics, economics, and education help guide towards stability and progress.
  3. Mistakes are inevitable, but having systems in place to correct them efficiently is key to continuous improvement.

Personal Financial Management can work?

Making Connections by Jax • 137 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Personal Financial Management is challenging due to low willingness to pay and retention issues.
  2. Acquiring customers cheaply by creating engaging content like a chatbot can help improve unit economics.
  3. Adding extra revenue streams and leveraging proprietary data can enhance the financial performance of a product.

A quick update on Net Income

Net Income • 137 implied HN points • 01 Sep 23
💼 Business Economics
  1. Net Income blog will return on September 15th with new content
  2. Posts will now be scheduled every two weeks for higher quality
  3. A variety of past topics and recommended readings are available on the blog

Best of SatPost (First Half of 2025)

SatPost by Trung Phan • 79 implied HN points • 27 Jun 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. Din Tai Fung restaurants make a lot of money, averaging $28 million per location. They stand out in casual dining because their food, especially the famous soup dumplings, is both popular and made with careful craftsmanship.
  2. Eli Lilly has been outperforming Novo Nordisk in the weight loss drug market with its GLP-1 medications. Strategic moves, like better manufacturing planning and new sales channels, have helped it gain market share.
  3. Fred Smith, the founder of FedEx, had an interesting journey to success, including a risky move to win at blackjack to save his company early on. His story highlights the challenges and determination involved in building a major business.

Understanding AI-driven job losses

philsiarri • 89 implied HN points • 05 Jun 25
💼 Business Economics
  1. AI is changing the job market, and many jobs could be replaced by machines. This is making people worried about their future work.
  2. Certain industries like manufacturing, finance, and retail are seeing big job cuts because of AI. Fast-food places and banks are automating roles, making it hard for some workers.
  3. While many jobs may be lost, there are new opportunities too. Learning to work with AI tools and adapting to new roles can help people stay employed.

To My Readers

In My Tribe • 987 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
🚌 Education Economics
  1. Arnold Kling has gained many new subscribers in the last three months.
  2. Kling has a long history of writing and blogging, with a focus on intellectual discussions.
  3. His political and economic views have evolved over time, leaning towards libertarianism but not endorsing radicalism.

Infographics: The Fed's Standing Repo Facility In Action

Concoda • 216 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics
  1. The Federal Reserve has a special tool called a repo facility to manage money supply in the economy. It helps banks borrow money quickly when they need it.
  2. This repo facility can provide short-term loans to banks, which helps keep the financial system stable. It's like a safety net during times of financial stress.
  3. Understanding how this facility works is important for grasping the bigger picture of economic stability and the Fed's role in it. It helps us see how money flows in the economy.