Astral Codex Ten • 5919 implied HN points • 23 May 23
- A play money prediction market turned serious when whales v. minnows gambling escalated, resulting in heavy financial losses, leading to ethical challenges.
- Congress is facing the decision of raising the debt ceiling, which if not resolved, could lead to severe economic consequences.
- Research shows that experts fare better than algorithms and non-experts in long-term geopolitical forecasting, raising questions about the accuracy and possibilities of such predictions.