The hottest Debt Ceiling Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Biden should IGNORE the debt ceiling: Don't declare an X-date. Keep paying the bills. Don't default.

Robert Reich • 27025 implied HN points • 22 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Debt Ceiling Biden administration Legal Challenges Economic Impact
  1. Debt ceiling standoffs have a long history and often involve high national debts from tax cuts.
  2. Treasury secretaries resort to extreme measures to keep paying bills during debt ceiling conflicts.
  3. Biden should continue paying bills, avoid declaring an 'X-date' or defaulting, despite escalating demands.

Mantic Monday 5/22/23

Astral Codex Ten • 5919 implied HN points • 23 May 23
💰 Finance Prediction Markets Debt Ceiling Bitcoin Financial Decisions
  1. A play money prediction market turned serious when whales v. minnows gambling escalated, resulting in heavy financial losses, leading to ethical challenges.
  2. Congress is facing the decision of raising the debt ceiling, which if not resolved, could lead to severe economic consequences.
  3. Research shows that experts fare better than algorithms and non-experts in long-term geopolitical forecasting, raising questions about the accuracy and possibilities of such predictions.

Debt Ceiling Threats Gets Ugly

cryptoeconomy • 609 implied HN points • 13 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Debt Ceiling Government spending Legislation Economic Impact
  1. Debt ceiling is approaching, and the government is trying to scare voters with extreme consequences like starving schoolchildren and financial market defaults.
  2. Negotiations involve significant spending cuts, particularly from rolling back spending to last year's level and applying a 1% annual cap for the next 10 years.
  3. If government spending reduces by roughly 50%, it could lead to a surplus to pay down debt, suggesting a need to cut unconstitutional and unnecessary programs.
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Are They Better Off?

News Items • 255 implied HN points • 21 Feb 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Social Security Policy Making Debt Ceiling Congress
  1. Key Census data may undercount the retirement income of older Americans by hundreds of billions of dollars a year.
  2. America needs to address the unsustainability of the Social Security program through benefit reductions, tax increases, or a combination of both.
  3. Recent data suggests that American retirees, on average, are wealthier than commonly believed, which may impact policy decisions regarding Social Security reform.

The Bear is Back!

The Last Bear Standing • 89 implied HN points • 21 Apr 23
💰 Finance Economics Monetary Policy Markets Debt Ceiling
  1. The Last Bear Standing has been renewed for Season Two, with more insightful content on finance and economics.
  2. Season One of The Last Bear Standing made accurate predictions, demonstrating the writer's expertise in financial analysis.
  3. For Season Two, access will require a paid subscription priced at $200 annually or $20 per month.

New $5,000 Prize in the Salem Center/CSPI Forecasting Tournament

Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology • 3 implied HN points • 15 Feb 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Forecasting Debt Ceiling
  1. A new $5,000 prize is added to the Salem Center/CSPI Forecasting Tournament to encourage more participation.
  2. The prize will go to the person with the greatest percentage increase in their portfolio value by the end of the tournament.
  3. Various markets on global events and economic forecasts are also discussed in the tournament.

Did Kevin McCarthy Forget about Silicon Valley Bank or is He Just Bluffing Regarding the Debt Ceiling?

Satiation Point • 0 implied HN points • 28 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Debt Ceiling Government Legislation Constitution Negotiation
  1. The failure of regional banks like Silicon Valley Bank due to assets including US government debt should deter politicians from risking default.
  2. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's willingness to use the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip is either reckless or ignorant.
  3. The debt ceiling contradicts laws on spending and taxation, making a case for its unconstitutionality under the 14th Amendment.

Donald Trump, Poet

Wide World of News • 0 implied HN points • 07 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Debt Ceiling Ukraine Campaign Strategy
  1. Donald Trump is seen as a poet in his communication style, which contrasts with Ron DeSantis's more pragmatic approach.
  2. The essence of politics is often described as 'campaigning in poetry and governing in prose,' highlighting the different communication styles needed for different stages of leadership.
  3. Public perception and electoral success can be strongly influenced by a candidate's ability to connect with voters through compelling storytelling or emotional rhetoric.

Vol. 4, No. 1 — The long and short of it

Valuabl • 0 implied HN points • 05 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Investment Stocks Debt Ceiling Interest Rates
  1. Valuabl reflected on their economic predictions and stock picks from 2023 - some were successful, but value investing lagged behind growth tech stocks.
  2. Rate hikes can be regressive, benefiting the rich and putting a strain on the poor through increased credit card bills and mortgage costs.
  3. 2023 was profitable overall for Valuabl, but it was a tough year to beat the market, showcasing the challenges of outperforming in the investment world.