The hottest Labor Market Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

America's Productivity Boom

Apricitas Economics • 105 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. America's productivity is growing really fast, much more than other countries. This means people are making more while working the same hours, which helps everyone earn better wages and live better lives.
  2. Most of this productivity growth is coming from the service sector, like tech and healthcare, rather than manufacturing. Many jobs have changed to become much more efficient, especially since the pandemic made businesses rethink how they work.
  3. However, this growth could slow down because of rising unemployment and less hiring. If businesses don't keep investing in better tools and technologies, the gains we've seen might start to vanish.

Asset management is not a meritocracy

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 05 Jan 26
💰 Finance Labor Market
  1. Asset management is not a meritocracy: even when fund performance and asset gathering are easy to measure, pay and promotions often don’t follow actual results.
  2. Female and minority fund managers deliver similar performance and flows as their peers but earn far less — roughly 27% less for women, 20% less for minorities, and about 44% less for minority women — and their wage growth over time is weaker.
  3. Women and minority managers are more likely to be laid off and less likely to be promoted (for example, women ~1.7% and Asian managers ~2.4% less likely to be promoted), showing persistent unconscious bias and a need for stronger DEI action.

Concerns Brewing?

Spilled Coffee • 72 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Labor Market
  1. Currently, housing is facing serious issues with high mortgage rates, making it a tough market for buyers. The demand for mortgages has dropped to its lowest level in over a decade.
  2. Home construction is slowing down, with builder inventories at a high level not seen since the 2008 housing bubble. This can have a big impact on the job market in construction.
  3. Worries are also rising in the stock market and labor market, indicating that many important sectors are feeling pressure right now.

Covidnomics

Diane Francis • 359 implied HN points • 12 Aug 21
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. The COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped how we work. More people are preferring remote work, leading to changes in workplaces and housing preferences.
  2. Many workers are quitting their jobs to prioritize safety and better work-life balance. This trend is forcing companies to adapt by offering flexible work options.
  3. Labor has gained more power, pushing for better pay and working conditions. This has led to higher wages and changes in benefits across various industries.
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Fair Price Theory

Tom Thought • 39 implied HN points • 26 May 23
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. Every good or service has a fair price, whether it's labor dependent on skill or a product based on cost of parts and labor.
  2. There is no definitive 'fair' price, only the market price determined by what people are willing to pay.
  3. Value of a product depends on consumer demand, not just on the labor or materials that went into it. Pay isn't determined solely by skill, but by usefulness and rarity of the skill in demand.

Why the postwar prosperity was not atypical

America in Crisis • 19 implied HN points • 03 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market
  1. Real wages for working class people grew slower after the 1970s due to economic policies, like tax cuts, since the Reagan administration.
  2. The post-war US economic success wasn't solely due to lack of foreign competition; trade only increased after mid-1960s tariff reductions.
  3. Shift away from high-productivity manufacturing jobs doesn't explain wage stagnation; the decrease in share of income going to working class started around 1980.

The Company Wants You Back in the Office – RESIST!

Anxiety Addiction & Ascension • 39 implied HN points • 06 Feb 23
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. Many employees prefer working from home for the flexibility it offers in their lives and are hesitant to return to the office for multiple days per week.
  2. Companies are facing challenges convincing workers to return to the office due to changing preferences and economic factors like labor shortages.
  3. Employees have some leverage to resist returning to the office and should consider continuing to work from home to maintain their independence and strength.

SaaS 2.0 - Service as a Software.

Market Curve • 43 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Labor Market
  1. AI agents can do many tasks by themselves, like booking travel or coding, which is different from the usual software that only helps people do their work. This means less manual work and more automation in our daily tasks.
  2. There are huge markets out there, like IT services and healthcare, that are ready for change. AI agents can disrupt these fields by making processes faster and more efficient, allowing businesses to save money and time.
  3. The future looks promising for those who embrace AI. By freeing people from repetitive tasks, AI agents can help us focus on more creative and important work, opening up new opportunities in various industries.

AI and Junior White Collar Automation: Update after EIG’s New Report

State of the Future • 12 implied HN points • 12 Aug 25
🕹 Technology Labor Market
  1. AI is changing how work gets done, especially in handling tasks. It makes sense to focus on how AI affects the types of jobs rather than just the number of jobs.
  2. There's evidence that AI hasn't led to big job losses in white-collar roles yet, but it's changing the landscape of entry-level positions. Many jobs for new graduates are declining.
  3. As companies adopt AI, they are starting to shift tasks among current workers instead of laying people off. This means the impact of AI on jobs might show up later as firms adjust their hiring practices.

Why Wages Slowed More In Japan Than Elsewhere

Japan Economy Watch • 159 implied HN points • 13 Dec 21
💰 Finance Labor Market
  1. Wages in Japan have not just slowed down but actually fallen, unlike in other rich countries where wages have been suppressed.
  2. The widespread slump in wage growth goes against economic theory, signaling a shift in how consumer demand and wages have traditionally grown alongside output.
  3. One main reason for Japan's wage decline is the rise of poorly paid non-regular workers, showcasing the impact of political factors on wage disparities.

2025 Macro Outlook

The Last Bear Standing • 36 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
💰 Finance Labor Market
  1. The Fed is in a new phase of monetary policy, raising questions about whether easing measures are just beginning or already finished. This uncertainty affects markets and investor confidence.
  2. The labor market is showing mixed signals, with job growth continuing but other indicators suggesting a slowdown. This could complicate future monetary policy decisions.
  3. Inflation progress has stalled, and how labor data evolves in 2025 will greatly influence inflation and monetary policy going forward.

Machine Yearning

Some Unpleasant Arithmetic • 13 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25
🕹 Technology Labor Market
  1. AI is changing jobs and skills needed in the workforce. Some jobs may disappear, while new roles can emerge that require different skills.
  2. The impact of AI on gender roles in the workplace is complicated. While women can benefit from AI in some sectors, they may also face challenges like algorithmic bias and lower usage rates of AI tools.
  3. Economic changes due to AI may lead to increased inequality, affecting both labor and capital distribution. This can ultimately reshape power dynamics in society and impact democracy.

AI & Satisfaction at Work, AI Agents & More | #282

Boundless by Paul Millerd • 37 implied HN points • 29 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Labor Market
  1. AI is becoming a big part of our daily lives, helping with tasks like writing emails, generating recipes, and even providing translations. It's exciting but makes us question how we feel about our work and creativity.
  2. The rise of AI agents could significantly change our jobs, raising questions about employment and how we see work in the future. Ideas like tradeable AI licenses could help spread benefits more fairly.
  3. Understanding changes in the publishing industry shows that there are still ways to innovate and capture value, especially closer to what customers want. It's important to keep exploring these opportunities.

What Josh Hawley gets wrong about me

Of Boys and Men • 131 implied HN points • 23 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market
  1. More men should be encouraged to work in HEAL professions like healthcare and education for a variety of reasons.
  2. It's important to address the gender disparities in occupations like health care and education to better serve clients and address labor shortages.
  3. Supporting opportunities for men in both blue-collar jobs and growing HEAL sectors is vital for a balanced workforce.

Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💰 Finance Labor Market
  1. The Household Survey and Establishment Survey both track employment, but there was a significant gap in their growth estimates over the years. Recent updates have nearly closed this gap.
  2. New population estimates showed that previous estimates of employment growth were too low, mainly due to underestimating international migration. This has led to a big revision upward in the Household Survey employment numbers.
  3. Now, both surveys show similar employment growth trends, which suggests that the labor market may not be as weak as previously thought.

2023 Economic Year-in-Review

Apricitas Economics • 64 implied HN points • 23 Dec 23
💰 Finance Labor Market
  1. Economic growth in 2023 exceeded expectations, with GDP rising and inflation cooling.
  2. Despite a banking crisis early in the year, financial conditions improved as the year progressed.
  3. The year saw a decline in inflation, a slowdown in the 'Great Resignation', and a historic year for American housing markets.

Are Real Wages Rising?

Apricitas Economics • 56 implied HN points • 11 Nov 23
💰 Finance Labor Market
  1. Average wage growth has outpaced inflation since the pandemic.
  2. Lower-wage workers have seen proportionally larger wage gains.
  3. Real wage growth depends on the strength of the labor market and can be impacted by inflation and distribution.

The Most Important New Disinflation Indicator

Apricitas Economics • 63 implied HN points • 15 Jul 23
💰 Finance Labor Market
  1. The New Tenant Repeat Rent Index provides a more accurate measure of current housing market conditions and predicts future disinflation.
  2. Housing inflation is currently the main driving force behind overall inflation, with non-housing inflation remaining relatively stable.
  3. The 'speed limit' theory of inflation suggests that the growth rate of the labor market, rather than its level, is a key determinant of rent inflation and overall price stability.

America's Weakening Labor Market

Apricitas Economics • 51 implied HN points • 02 Sep 23
💰 Finance Labor Market
  1. The US labor market has cooled significantly, with job and wage growth decelerating.
  2. The era of the 'Great Reshuffling' in the labor market is ending, as job switch rates decrease.
  3. Businesses are becoming more pessimistic about hiring, leading to lower revenue and hiring expectations.

The End of Work and the Future of Civilization?

Daniel Pinchbeck’s Newsletter • 11 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market
  1. Artificial Intelligence is rapidly advancing, and it could soon take over many jobs, including professional and manual labor. This change might happen within just a few years.
  2. A lot of people are stuck in their views and find it hard to see other perspectives. This makes it tough to have open conversations about political and social issues.
  3. The impact of automation could lead to millions losing their jobs in the near future. The shift might create more unemployment than new job opportunities in some sectors.

The UK's Stagnation

Apricitas Economics • 51 implied HN points • 10 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Labor Market
  1. UK's economy has shrunk by 0.5% since the pandemic while other economies have grown
  2. UK has the worst labor market recovery in the G7 with declining employment rates
  3. British inflation crisis remains severe with high CPI and real growth weakness

A Historic Labor Market Recovery

Apricitas Economics • 56 implied HN points • 09 Apr 23
💰 Finance Labor Market
  1. American employment rates have fully recovered from the pandemic, showing a rapid and broad-based labor market recovery.
  2. The recovery is broad-based, with almost all industries and age groups showing increased employment rates.
  3. The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of balancing inflation control with maximizing employment for the ongoing historic labor market recovery.

Is the Vibecession Over?

Kyla’s Newsletter • 44 implied HN points • 27 Jul 23
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. The economy seems to be improving with growth, inflation cooling, and real wages increasing.
  2. Factors like government spending and low borrowing rates have helped avoid a recession.
  3. Challenges remain with issues like housing shortages, student loan payments, and worker strikes.

What Will AI Do For Us In The Near Term?

Am I Stronger Yet? • 31 implied HN points • 17 Jun 23
🕹 Technology Labor Market
  1. AI has near-term potential to advance science, especially in complex domains like biology and material science
  2. AI can eliminate scarcity of access to expertise by providing instant and competent support in areas like customer service, healthcare, and education
  3. AI is increasing white-collar productivity through automation of tasks like writing code, emails, and generating illustrations, though challenges exist in the physical-world job market

Are men more skilled than women?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 28 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market
  1. Women often receive recommendations that focus more on hard work than skill, which can hurt their job chances. This means they might be seen as less talented compared to men, even if they are equally qualified.
  2. A study showed that women with positive recommendation letters are still less likely to get hired if the recruiters have stereotypical views about gender abilities. This shows bias in how potential candidates are judged.
  3. Overall, the difference in how men and women are recommended can affect hiring decisions significantly, keeping qualified women from getting the same opportunities as their male counterparts.

Mr. Haltiwanger and the Austrians

Economic Forces • 6 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. Entrepreneurs play a crucial role in the economy by discovering better ways to use resources. They find price differences and opportunities, which helps move resources to where they can create more value.
  2. Measuring how well resources are being reallocated can show if markets are functioning efficiently. When more productive firms gain market share, it indicates that resources are being used better.
  3. There’s a connection between entrepreneurship and market dynamics. By focusing on how entrepreneurs impact resource use, we can better understand economic growth and competition.

Getting grandpa back to work…

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. Older workers are valuable for businesses and the economy. Keeping them in the workforce can help boost productivity and growth.
  2. The labor participation rates of older workers are higher in Spain than in the UK, showing that some countries are better at retaining older employees.
  3. Changes in unemployment benefits can motivate older workers to find jobs again, which benefits both the individuals and the economy.

A She-cession, then a He-cession, then just, a Recession.

Of Boys and Men • 19 implied HN points • 06 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market
  1. The pandemic-induced recession initially hit women's employment hardest, but male employment recovered slower.
  2. Female employment was impacted more due to job industries affected by the pandemic and increased childcare responsibilities.
  3. While women's participation rates bounced back, concerns arose over slower job recovery for middle-aged men, especially those who entered the job market during previous crises.

Children are bad for your career, unless you are a man

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. Having children usually hurts women's careers more than men's, especially when they are young parents. Women often leave their jobs to take care of kids, while men generally do not face this issue.
  2. In countries with affordable childcare, women are more likely to stay employed after having children. This leads to smaller wage gaps between mothers and fathers.
  3. By age 50, many mothers earn more than childless women due to better job opportunities, while fathers often make more than non-fathers at both ages. Overall, being a parent seems to have different impacts on men and women's careers.

A Possibly Medieval Future

Via Appia • 2 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Labor Market
  1. As AI technology grows, the value of capital will likely become more important, possibly increasing wealth inequality. This means that having money might give some people more power than others.
  2. AI systems will reflect the values and choices of the people who create them. If not carefully designed, these systems can influence society in ways that are hard to change later.
  3. Despite these challenges, right now we have a chance to shape the future positively. People can still learn about AI, influence how it develops, and make choices to enhance individual freedoms.

#15: Maybe You Should Invest in Translation

Loeber on Substack • 6 HN points • 19 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Labor Market
  1. Translation is the next big thing in AI with significant global impact
  2. Advancements in speech-to-text, text-to-speech, and style transfer technologies are converging to revolutionize language translation
  3. Ubiquitous translation will greatly increase global connectivity, impact labor markets, and present investment opportunities in software, hardware, and geographic levels

Can demographics undermine Europe’s dominance in global trade?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. Europe's working-age population is shrinking, which means there will be fewer workers available to drive economic growth. This change could lead to higher wages and inflation.
  2. As global trade patterns shift, countries with younger, growing populations, like India and Africa, are expected to gain a larger share of global trade. This could change the trading landscape significantly.
  3. By 2100, Africa and South Asia could become the main centers of global trade, while Europe's influence might drop to below 20%. This shows a major shift in where economic power will lie in the future.

C.R.E.A.M

Some Unpleasant Arithmetic • 5 implied HN points • 22 Feb 23
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. Location choice for businesses is influenced by factors like market size, transportation costs, and differences in costs
  2. Cities experience agglomeration of economic activities due to labor market demand and specialization
  3. Urban development is constrained by limited urban land types and non-infinite demand for services