The hottest Labor Market Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

VINDICATED! (sadly). The govt can no longer hide the decline in jobs

COVID Reason • 812 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Employment Economy Government Labor Market Public Policy
  1. Job losses in the private sector are alarming, with 28,000 jobs lost, especially in manufacturing and retail. This shows a real problem in the economy.
  2. Government jobs increased by 40,000, which may cover up serious issues in other job sectors. This is a sign the economy isn't as strong as it looks.
  3. The labor force is shrinking, with many not participating anymore and unemployment rising. This trend is not sustainable and needs urgent attention.

Global. Synchronized. Recession

COVID Reason • 535 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
💰 Finance Global Economy Consumer confidence Labor Market
  1. The global economy is in a full-blown recession, not just a minor slowdown. Signs like credit card shutdowns and a weak job market clearly show the situation is serious.
  2. Declining consumer confidence is a big red flag. People are feeling uncertain, which affects how much they spend and can worsen the economic crisis.
  3. This recession isn’t just affecting one place; it’s happening worldwide. Countries like China and Japan are facing similar struggles, indicating a synchronized economic downturn.

At least five interesting things: Build Something, Dammit! (#56)

Noahpinion • 17235 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Elections Public Policy International relations Labor Market
  1. There's a debate in progressive politics between focusing on delivering more goods and services for people versus fighting for control of the Democratic party's direction. Both sides have valid points, but it's important to prioritize tangible benefits for everyone.
  2. China's cyber espionage has grown alarmingly, with hackers accessing sensitive information from U.S. political figures. This raises concerns about privacy and national security, highlighting the need for stronger cybersecurity measures.
  3. Despite worries about disappearing good jobs, recent data shows that the landscape is changing. More high-skilled jobs in management and STEM are emerging, suggesting a positive shift in the job market.

Brace Yourselves: The Jobs Market Is Teetering on the Edge

COVID Reason • 475 implied HN points • 03 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market Economic Policy Employment Trends Federal Reserve Consumer confidence
  1. Hiring is way down and fewer jobs are being created. This shows that companies are worried about the future.
  2. People are not leaving their jobs as much because they feel the job market is risky. They prefer to stay where they are to avoid unemployment.
  3. The Federal Reserve is taking actions like cutting rates, but these steps won't fix the deeper problems in the job market that stem from lower demand for goods and services.

16 Musings on AI’s Impact on the Labor Market

The Algorithmic Bridge • 838 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Impact Labor Market
  1. Generative AI may replace many jobs in the short term because it makes work easier, while demand doesn't increase right away. But in the long run, new jobs will appear to replace the old ones.
  2. Adapting to this change is important, especially for older workers and those in poorer areas who have fewer opportunities to switch careers. Digital tools change jobs faster than physical machines, impacting the workforce more rapidly.
  3. It's essential for companies to help their workers learn to use AI as a tool for better skills. The future will reward those who can build good relationships in their jobs and adapt to new technologies.
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Not Much has Changed

The Transcript • 179 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Interest Rates Consumer behavior Investment Strategies Labor Market
  1. The economy is doing okay overall, even though growth has slowed down a bit since the Fed lowered interest rates. It seems like things are more stable than expected.
  2. Consumers are still spending, and there’s no big drop in retail shopping, which is a good sign for the economy. Most people are managing to keep up with their finances.
  3. Investors are holding onto a lot of cash right now and might be waiting for better opportunities to invest. Many think current asset prices are too high.

First Rate Cut + Q&A

DeFi Education • 779 implied HN points • 23 Aug 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Labor Market Interest Rates Economic Trends
  1. The Federal Reserve is making changes to its policies, indicating the economy is shifting. This could affect things like interest rates and inflation.
  2. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that they don’t want the economy to cool down too much. This suggests they are looking for a balance between growth and stability.
  3. There is a focus on the labor market and inflation, which are key indicators for the economy. These factors will influence future decisions from the Federal Reserve.

Future of Jobs Report 2025

Workforce Futurist by Andy Spence • 634 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💼 Business Skill development Workforce Trends Digital Transformation Labor Market
  1. 170 million new jobs are expected to be created by 2030, but 92 million jobs may be lost. This shows a big change in the job market.
  2. Companies are likely to focus more on skill-based hiring rather than just job experience. This means skills will matter more than degrees.
  3. The way work is done is changing, especially with machines taking on more tasks. Companies need to adapt or risk falling behind.

Wading Into The HB1 Visa Controversy

Points And Figures • 799 implied HN points • 29 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Policy Economic Analysis Law enforcement Labor Market Social Issues
  1. There's a lot of misunderstanding about immigration, especially regarding the HB1 visa. Instead of emotions, we need to look at data to create better immigration policies.
  2. Charging for immigration can fix many issues. If people pay to immigrate, they may invest more in their new country and assimilate faster.
  3. High-skilled immigrants can benefit America without causing social costs. By removing political influence from the immigration process, we can make it work better for everyone.

There Are No Safe Havens

Freddie deBoer • 6621 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💼 Business Labor Market Tech industry Career development
  1. The job market for entry-level programmers has drastically declined, with job postings dropping significantly. It's harder than ever for new coders to find work right now.
  2. While skilled and experienced programmers still have good job prospects, the narrative around learning to code often ignores that not everyone can secure those top jobs.
  3. The promise of tech jobs being a guaranteed path to success is misleading, especially for beginners who face tough competition in a shrinking market.

Understanding AI-driven job losses

philsiarri • 89 implied HN points • 05 Jun 25
💼 Business Employment Automation AI Economics Labor Market
  1. AI is changing the job market, and many jobs could be replaced by machines. This is making people worried about their future work.
  2. Certain industries like manufacturing, finance, and retail are seeing big job cuts because of AI. Fast-food places and banks are automating roles, making it hard for some workers.
  3. While many jobs may be lost, there are new opportunities too. Learning to work with AI tools and adapting to new roles can help people stay employed.

Did immigration bring down inflation?

Noahpinion • 9647 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Economy Policy Labor Market Inflation
  1. Paul Krugman suggests that increased immigration led to a positive supply shock, boosting growth and lowering inflation.
  2. Immigration's impact on reducing costs for companies and expanding aggregate supply is complex, involving immigrant and native-born wage dynamics.
  3. There are differing perspectives on the role of immigration in reducing inflation, with suggestions including a combination of immigration, Fed action, and pandemic-era supply shocks.

Mailbags (and movies) need writers

Slow Boring • 3164 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics History Policy Governance Labor Market Cultural criticism
  1. Movies rely on a variety of roles, including writers, for their success.
  2. Positive trends in the labor market include record enrollment in ACA exchanges, booming construction jobs, and falling greenhouse gas emissions.
  3. The outcome of historical events, like the American Revolution, can have a significant impact on future developments and trajectories.

So, Yeah, AI Is Already Taking Our Jobs

The Algorithmic Bridge • 530 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
🕹 Technology AI Impact Automation Labor Market Skill development
  1. AI is changing the job market quickly. Many people could lose their jobs because machines can do tasks faster and more efficiently.
  2. Learning to use AI tools is becoming important. Those who adapt and learn these skills will likely have better job prospects in the future.
  3. Despite the negative effects on some jobs, there's still hope for creativity and new opportunities. People can find ways to use AI to enhance their work instead of seeing it only as a threat.

✨ Daron Acemoglu: too much faith in government, too little in markets (and AI)

Faster, Please! • 731 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Labor Market Technology impact Education reform Government intervention
  1. Daron Acemoglu identified three major challenges for the American economy: aging population, artificial intelligence, and deglobalization. These issues can disrupt the job market and create labor shortages.
  2. Investing in worker skills and adaptability is crucial to meet these challenges. This includes better training and support for all workers, not just focusing on traditional manufacturing jobs.
  3. Acemoglu suggests that the government should promote technologies that help workers rather than just automate jobs. This involves creating new federal programs to enhance worker productivity and prepare for future labor needs.

Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Employment Surveys Demographics Labor Market
  1. The Household Survey and Establishment Survey both track employment, but there was a significant gap in their growth estimates over the years. Recent updates have nearly closed this gap.
  2. New population estimates showed that previous estimates of employment growth were too low, mainly due to underestimating international migration. This has led to a big revision upward in the Household Survey employment numbers.
  3. Now, both surveys show similar employment growth trends, which suggests that the labor market may not be as weak as previously thought.

Karma mailbag

Slow Boring • 1690 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Conspiracy Theories Legislation Public Health Labor Market Local news
  1. The post discusses right-wing conspiracy theories about Taylor Swift, but does not endorse them.
  2. There's an observation that Taylor Swift's song 'Karma' may contain elements from an older song, 'Music is My Hot Hot Sex' by CSS.
  3. The post highlights positive news stories like Medicaid expansion, newborn great white sharks, and successful transit projects.

SaaS 2.0 - Service as a Software.

Market Curve • 43 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI agents Software Automation Labor Market
  1. AI agents can do many tasks by themselves, like booking travel or coding, which is different from the usual software that only helps people do their work. This means less manual work and more automation in our daily tasks.
  2. There are huge markets out there, like IT services and healthcare, that are ready for change. AI agents can disrupt these fields by making processes faster and more efficient, allowing businesses to save money and time.
  3. The future looks promising for those who embrace AI. By freeing people from repetitive tasks, AI agents can help us focus on more creative and important work, opening up new opportunities in various industries.

How we could return to the productivity growth of the 1990s

Noahpinion • 4705 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
💼 Business Productivity Economic Policy Investment Labor Market Monetary Policy
  1. Productivity growth is crucial for controlling inflation, maintaining a stable economy, and improving living standards.
  2. To boost productivity growth, a combination of macroeconomic factors like full employment, investment incentives, and stable supply-side conditions is essential.
  3. Three key factors that fostered productivity growth in the 1990s were full employment, high fixed investment, and stable supply with low inflation; replicating these conditions today would require strategic policy interventions.

Meet the Indians Locked Out of the American Dream

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 728 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Legislation Social Issues Economics Labor Market
  1. Many immigrants find that the American dream feels unreachable due to strict visa regulations. These rules can make it hard for them to change jobs or start their own businesses.
  2. People like Atal Agarwal feel trapped by their immigration status, limiting their career choices and dreams. They often feel pressure to stick with jobs they may not want.
  3. Returning to their home country can feel like a loss of opportunity for some immigrants, especially when they have invested so much in their education and work in the U.S.

Concerns Brewing?

Spilled Coffee • 72 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Mortgage Stock Market Labor Market Inflation
  1. Currently, housing is facing serious issues with high mortgage rates, making it a tough market for buyers. The demand for mortgages has dropped to its lowest level in over a decade.
  2. Home construction is slowing down, with builder inventories at a high level not seen since the 2008 housing bubble. This can have a big impact on the job market in construction.
  3. Worries are also rising in the stock market and labor market, indicating that many important sectors are feeling pressure right now.

Top Links 631 US labour market churn in historical perspective. The decline of retail jobs. Writhing Leviathans & the business of deportation.

Chartbook • 472 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market Economic Policy Employment Trends Social Issues Migration policy
  1. The US labor market has seen a lot of changes over time, with many people switching jobs frequently.
  2. Retail jobs are declining, which impacts many workers and the economy.
  3. There are ongoing discussions about the business of deportation, highlighting important social issues.

Lights on the runway for the soft landing

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 1356 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Inflation Labor Market Consumer spending Interest Rates
  1. The labor market is strong, American consumers are spending well, and most families are financially better off.
  2. Inflation is heading towards 2%, with businesses adjusting prices and the Fed needing to act accordingly.
  3. Forecasts suggest a recession may be avoided, softening the pessimistic rhetoric and improving consumer sentiment.

Top Links 626 The coming US labour market shock. Brazil and the bond vigilantes, China and the demand for gold & the triumph of cellular.

Chartbook • 343 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance Labor Market Immigration Economic Trends Investment
  1. The US labor market is expected to face a significant shock soon. This means there might be big changes in job availability and employment rates.
  2. Brazil is experiencing challenges from bond vigilantes. These are investors who are cautious about government bonds and could influence Brazil's economy.
  3. China is seeing an increased demand for gold. This trend indicates shifts in how people are valuing money and investments in that country.

Economics Links

In My Tribe • 455 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Theory Regulation Labor Market Cryptocurrency Market Trends
  1. Academic economics has a culture that can feel snobby. Many economists avoid challenging well-known figures out of fear of seeming unimportant.
  2. The job market has changed a lot over the years, moving from agriculture to manufacturing, and now to service-based jobs. This shift reflects changes in demand and productivity.
  3. Cutting regulations can significantly lower prices, leading to increased real income for people. This could result in economic growth that exceeds what many economists expect.

Inequality is overwhelmingly between firms, not within

Something to Consider • 99 implied HN points • 13 Jul 24
💰 Finance Income Inequality Corporate Structure Economic Theory Labor Market Public Policy
  1. Income inequality is mainly based on differences between companies, not just between workers in the same company. Some companies pay their workers a lot more than others, and that's a big part of why inequality has grown.
  2. About 40% of this inequality comes from workers choosing to work at different firms. The other 20% is because some firms are simply more productive or profitable than others.
  3. We should focus more on how many highly skilled workers are earning a lot overall, rather than just looking at top executives. More people than ever have high incomes, showing that there's great potential for those who can add value in the economy.

America's Productivity Boom

Apricitas Economics • 105 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics Productivity Employment Investments Labor Market
  1. America's productivity is growing really fast, much more than other countries. This means people are making more while working the same hours, which helps everyone earn better wages and live better lives.
  2. Most of this productivity growth is coming from the service sector, like tech and healthcare, rather than manufacturing. Many jobs have changed to become much more efficient, especially since the pandemic made businesses rethink how they work.
  3. However, this growth could slow down because of rising unemployment and less hiring. If businesses don't keep investing in better tools and technologies, the gains we've seen might start to vanish.

Notes on the Macro-Finance Sitch for 2025-01-13 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 184 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Labor Market Interest Rates
  1. The U.S. labor market is still strong, showing no signs of cooling off. Recently, 256,000 new jobs were added, which is much more than expected.
  2. Inflation in the U.S. hasn't exceeded the Federal Reserve's target since mid-2022, but there's concern it could rise again. The Fed needs to make sure its policies stay neutral to keep inflation in check.
  3. There are worries that the current financial market is overly optimistic. If the expectations for market growth don't pan out, it could lead to a serious economic downturn.

Blaming Capitalists and Workers for Inflation

cryptoeconomy • 628 implied HN points • 29 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Inflation Biden administration Labor Market
  1. Central bankers are blaming capitalists and workers for inflation to divert attention from their own actions.
  2. Corporate profits and worker wages are being scapegoated for causing inflation, but in reality, they are a result of economic uncertainty and money printing.
  3. The evolution from 'greedflation' to 'wageflation' is explained by the Cantillon effect, where trillions of dollars trickle down from government to workers, resulting in lost real wages and potential future economic challenges.

Inflation: it's "complicated"

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 628 implied HN points • 25 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation Labor Market Market Power
  1. Inflation is influenced by a variety of factors such as supply disruptions, commodity prices, labor market strength, and demand for goods.
  2. The discussion around workers having the upper hand in the labor market is complex and requires consideration of inflation expectations, wage growth, and job market tightness.
  3. Inflation expectations are stable, showing that markets and consumers anticipate a return to normal inflation levels, which is crucial for combating inflation.

Links to Consider, 10/13/2024

In My Tribe • 273 implied HN points • 13 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Demographics Economics Labor Market Public Policy Social Change
  1. Urban areas are not friendly to big families, which contributes to decreasing birth rates. When people live in cities, they often have fewer children than those in suburbs.
  2. Social views on marriage and careers have shifted. Now, many see being a single working woman as more prestigious than being a married stay-at-home mom, which can affect family size.
  3. AI is changing the job market a lot, and there’s going to be a lot of job turnover. The official job numbers might not show the full picture of these changes.

Brain drain is probably just totally wrong

Something to Consider • 59 implied HN points • 26 Jun 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Economics Labor Market Globalization Human Capital
  1. Immigration from developing to developed countries might actually benefit the home country, not hurt it. Allowing skilled workers to leave can lead to better investments in education and skills in their home countries.
  2. When people have chances to immigrate, it encourages more individuals to pursue education and develop their skills. This can raise the overall talent level in their country over time.
  3. Countries with more open borders often do better economically than expected. For example, Puerto Rico shows that having immigration opportunities can lead to a higher quality of life for everyone.

Links to Consider, 11/4/2024

In My Tribe • 227 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Economics Labor Market Management Industrial Policy
  1. The job market is changing due to AI taking over routine office tasks. However, more complex management roles might still require human skills.
  2. Some believe that good foreign policy relies more on talking than on action. Words can sometimes seem like solutions even when they aren't.
  3. Recent manufacturing job growth is happening in places less affected by international trade issues. Many manufacturing jobs are still not unionized, which means fewer protections for workers.

So what if they’re below average?

Something to Consider • 39 implied HN points • 08 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Economics Public Policy Social Issues Labor Market
  1. Immigration can be beneficial even if new arrivals have lower average intelligence. People with high intelligence can greatly contribute to economic growth and help lift others out of poverty.
  2. Knowledge is essential for progress, but it's not shared equally. Smart people create innovations that can benefit everyone, even if some tasks are done by less skilled workers.
  3. Countries benefit collectively from advancements made in one area. For example, technologies developed in rich nations can significantly improve lives and economies in poorer regions.

The Beveridge curve and cultural evolution

America in Crisis • 99 implied HN points • 16 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Labor Market Inflation Taxation Government spending
  1. Beveridge curves show the relationship between job vacancies and unemployment rates, highlighting changes in the labor market over time.
  2. Economic policies, such as tax laws and deficit spending, can impact factors like wages and inflation, influencing the overall economic environment.
  3. Cultural evolution in business practices is influenced by economic conditions and government policies, shaping the economy and labor market dynamics.

The Four-Day Work Week

Diane Francis • 539 implied HN points • 27 Apr 23
💼 Business Workplace Trends Labor Market Remote work Employee Wellbeing
  1. Many workers now prefer a four-day work week due to changes in work attitudes and the rise of remote jobs. This shift has been supported by research showing that shorter weeks can boost productivity.
  2. With younger generations valuing flexibility and work-life balance, there's a demand for part-time work and more vacation time. Many young people would rather have multiple jobs than just one full-time position.
  3. This movement isn’t just about shorter work weeks; employees also want benefits like better maternity leave, remote work options, and geographic flexibility. The pandemic has greatly influenced these changes in worker expectations.

An Honest Day's Work Can Take Days

Building Something Old • 139 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
💼 Business Labor Market Workforce Development Economic Impact
  1. There's a big shortage of skilled workers in the U.S., especially in vital industries like construction and manufacturing. Many companies are struggling to fill jobs and this could hurt the economy if not addressed.
  2. Apprenticeships are making a comeback as they provide a good path for young people to learn trades and earn money while gaining experience. This old-school method of training is seen as an effective solution to the current labor crisis.
  3. There are many reasons why apprenticeships are more appealing now, including high demand for skilled workers and rising costs of college. More and more people are realizing that trades can offer good careers without the burden of student debt.

University Grads Flock to Food Delivery as China's Job Market Dries Up

Chinarrative • 216 implied HN points • 10 Dec 23
💼 Business Employment Industry Labor Market Economy Market Trends
  1. University graduates in China are turning to food delivery jobs due to a tough job market and economic situation.
  2. More educated individuals, including college graduates, are entering the food delivery sector, causing an oversupply of labor and decreasing salaries.
  3. The phenomenon reflects broader employment issues in China, showing a need for improved support from educational institutions and a larger, more diverse job market.