The hottest Labor Market Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

✨ The AI economy is here

Faster, Please! • 639 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. The use of AI is growing quickly in big companies like Amazon, which may lead to fewer jobs in some areas but could create new opportunities in others as tasks change.
  2. Top tech companies like Meta and OpenAI are competing fiercely for AI talent, offering huge salaries to attract skilled workers, showing how valuable this expertise is.
  3. Overall, AI is changing how work gets done, leading to job losses in repetitive tasks but also creating new roles and increasing productivity for skilled workers.

America is Flying Blind on Immigration

Apricitas Economics • 106 implied HN points • 02 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market
  1. A lot of the American workforce is made up of immigrants, and the U.S. doesn't have good data on how many are leaving because of recent immigration policies. This makes it hard to understand the impact on the economy.
  2. Official estimates suggest millions of immigrants have left the U.S. due to stricter immigration enforcement, but this data is unreliable, leading to confusion about the true immigration situation.
  3. Employment rates for native-born Americans have not significantly improved, and mass deportations haven't guaranteed jobs for U.S. workers as some might expect.

AI-driven job loss risks socialism

Alex's Personal Blog • 98 implied HN points • 19 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market
  1. Companies are focusing on efficiency with AI, which may lead to job losses and hurt people's livelihoods. It's important to think about how this change impacts society as a whole.
  2. The rise of AI might allow senior employees to rely less on junior staff for tasks, but this could lead to a lack of opportunities for new workers trying to enter the job market.
  3. If businesses prioritize cost-cutting over mentoring new employees, it could create long-term economic issues and a workforce that struggles to support itself in the future.

16 Musings on AI’s Impact on the Labor Market

The Algorithmic Bridge • 838 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Labor Market
  1. Generative AI may replace many jobs in the short term because it makes work easier, while demand doesn't increase right away. But in the long run, new jobs will appear to replace the old ones.
  2. Adapting to this change is important, especially for older workers and those in poorer areas who have fewer opportunities to switch careers. Digital tools change jobs faster than physical machines, impacting the workforce more rapidly.
  3. It's essential for companies to help their workers learn to use AI as a tool for better skills. The future will reward those who can build good relationships in their jobs and adapt to new technologies.

Blaming Capitalists and Workers for Inflation

cryptoeconomy • 628 implied HN points • 29 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market
  1. Central bankers are blaming capitalists and workers for inflation to divert attention from their own actions.
  2. Corporate profits and worker wages are being scapegoated for causing inflation, but in reality, they are a result of economic uncertainty and money printing.
  3. The evolution from 'greedflation' to 'wageflation' is explained by the Cantillon effect, where trillions of dollars trickle down from government to workers, resulting in lost real wages and potential future economic challenges.
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Inflation: it's "complicated"

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 628 implied HN points • 25 May 23
💰 Finance Labor Market
  1. Inflation is influenced by a variety of factors such as supply disruptions, commodity prices, labor market strength, and demand for goods.
  2. The discussion around workers having the upper hand in the labor market is complex and requires consideration of inflation expectations, wage growth, and job market tightness.
  3. Inflation expectations are stable, showing that markets and consumers anticipate a return to normal inflation levels, which is crucial for combating inflation.

Brain drain is probably just totally wrong

Something to Consider • 59 implied HN points • 26 Jun 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market
  1. Immigration from developing to developed countries might actually benefit the home country, not hurt it. Allowing skilled workers to leave can lead to better investments in education and skills in their home countries.
  2. When people have chances to immigrate, it encourages more individuals to pursue education and develop their skills. This can raise the overall talent level in their country over time.
  3. Countries with more open borders often do better economically than expected. For example, Puerto Rico shows that having immigration opportunities can lead to a higher quality of life for everyone.

Wading Into The HB1 Visa Controversy

Points And Figures • 799 implied HN points • 29 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market
  1. There's a lot of misunderstanding about immigration, especially regarding the HB1 visa. Instead of emotions, we need to look at data to create better immigration policies.
  2. Charging for immigration can fix many issues. If people pay to immigrate, they may invest more in their new country and assimilate faster.
  3. High-skilled immigrants can benefit America without causing social costs. By removing political influence from the immigration process, we can make it work better for everyone.

Policy Uncertainty, Not "AI"-Automation, Is Almost Surely Behind the Bulk of Recent Graduates' Job Discontent

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 253 implied HN points • 23 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market
  1. Many recent college graduates struggle to find jobs, but it's not because of AI. The real issue is job market uncertainty caused by various factors like economic policies and company investments.
  2. Employers are being cautious and delaying hiring due to unpredictable conditions. This makes it harder for newcomers to get jobs, as fewer openings are created when companies hold back.
  3. The value of a college degree is starting to plateau, meaning graduates may not earn significantly more than non-grads in the future. Companies are also moving towards temporary jobs, making career paths less stable.

Economic Methodology

David Friedman’s Substack • 242 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. Economic models don't need to be realistic; what's important is whether they can make accurate predictions about the future. A good model will simplify complex truths while still capturing what really matters.
  2. Being a true economist means being willing to change your views based on evidence, not just sticking to ideology. If someone’s beliefs don’t change even when faced with solid economic arguments, they might just be an economist during work hours.
  3. History shows that both Keynes and Friedman had valuable insights, even if their ideas contradict each other. Each has built on the work of the other, which is how economics progresses, just like in any science.

Meet the Indians Locked Out of the American Dream

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 728 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market
  1. Many immigrants find that the American dream feels unreachable due to strict visa regulations. These rules can make it hard for them to change jobs or start their own businesses.
  2. People like Atal Agarwal feel trapped by their immigration status, limiting their career choices and dreams. They often feel pressure to stick with jobs they may not want.
  3. Returning to their home country can feel like a loss of opportunity for some immigrants, especially when they have invested so much in their education and work in the U.S.

Future of Jobs Report 2025

Workforce Futurist by Andy Spence • 634 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. 170 million new jobs are expected to be created by 2030, but 92 million jobs may be lost. This shows a big change in the job market.
  2. Companies are likely to focus more on skill-based hiring rather than just job experience. This means skills will matter more than degrees.
  3. The way work is done is changing, especially with machines taking on more tasks. Companies need to adapt or risk falling behind.

So what if they’re below average?

Something to Consider • 39 implied HN points • 08 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market
  1. Immigration can be beneficial even if new arrivals have lower average intelligence. People with high intelligence can greatly contribute to economic growth and help lift others out of poverty.
  2. Knowledge is essential for progress, but it's not shared equally. Smart people create innovations that can benefit everyone, even if some tasks are done by less skilled workers.
  3. Countries benefit collectively from advancements made in one area. For example, technologies developed in rich nations can significantly improve lives and economies in poorer regions.

Job hunt update

Sex and the State • 33 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. Job hunting can trigger panic about being unemployable, especially when you worry about age, physical limits, or lack of experience.
  2. Even if you’re willing to take entry-level work, practical barriers like businesses not hiring can block your plans.
  3. It’s normal to feel embarrassed about downshifting, but talking yourself into accepting practical work helps remove shame and move forward.

✨ Daron Acemoglu: too much faith in government, too little in markets (and AI)

Faster, Please! • 731 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market
  1. Daron Acemoglu identified three major challenges for the American economy: aging population, artificial intelligence, and deglobalization. These issues can disrupt the job market and create labor shortages.
  2. Investing in worker skills and adaptability is crucial to meet these challenges. This includes better training and support for all workers, not just focusing on traditional manufacturing jobs.
  3. Acemoglu suggests that the government should promote technologies that help workers rather than just automate jobs. This involves creating new federal programs to enhance worker productivity and prepare for future labor needs.

Top Links 631 US labour market churn in historical perspective. The decline of retail jobs. Writhing Leviathans & the business of deportation.

Chartbook • 472 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market
  1. The US labor market has seen a lot of changes over time, with many people switching jobs frequently.
  2. Retail jobs are declining, which impacts many workers and the economy.
  3. There are ongoing discussions about the business of deportation, highlighting important social issues.

The Beveridge curve and cultural evolution

America in Crisis • 99 implied HN points • 16 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market
  1. Beveridge curves show the relationship between job vacancies and unemployment rates, highlighting changes in the labor market over time.
  2. Economic policies, such as tax laws and deficit spending, can impact factors like wages and inflation, influencing the overall economic environment.
  3. Cultural evolution in business practices is influenced by economic conditions and government policies, shaping the economy and labor market dynamics.

The Four-Day Work Week

Diane Francis • 539 implied HN points • 27 Apr 23
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. Many workers now prefer a four-day work week due to changes in work attitudes and the rise of remote jobs. This shift has been supported by research showing that shorter weeks can boost productivity.
  2. With younger generations valuing flexibility and work-life balance, there's a demand for part-time work and more vacation time. Many young people would rather have multiple jobs than just one full-time position.
  3. This movement isn’t just about shorter work weeks; employees also want benefits like better maternity leave, remote work options, and geographic flexibility. The pandemic has greatly influenced these changes in worker expectations.

Economics Links

In My Tribe • 455 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Labor Market
  1. Academic economics has a culture that can feel snobby. Many economists avoid challenging well-known figures out of fear of seeming unimportant.
  2. The job market has changed a lot over the years, moving from agriculture to manufacturing, and now to service-based jobs. This shift reflects changes in demand and productivity.
  3. Cutting regulations can significantly lower prices, leading to increased real income for people. This could result in economic growth that exceeds what many economists expect.

An Honest Day's Work Can Take Days

Building Something Old • 139 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. There's a big shortage of skilled workers in the U.S., especially in vital industries like construction and manufacturing. Many companies are struggling to fill jobs and this could hurt the economy if not addressed.
  2. Apprenticeships are making a comeback as they provide a good path for young people to learn trades and earn money while gaining experience. This old-school method of training is seen as an effective solution to the current labor crisis.
  3. There are many reasons why apprenticeships are more appealing now, including high demand for skilled workers and rising costs of college. More and more people are realizing that trades can offer good careers without the burden of student debt.

So, Yeah, AI Is Already Taking Our Jobs

The Algorithmic Bridge • 530 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Labor Market
  1. AI is changing the job market quickly. Many people could lose their jobs because machines can do tasks faster and more efficiently.
  2. Learning to use AI tools is becoming important. Those who adapt and learn these skills will likely have better job prospects in the future.
  3. Despite the negative effects on some jobs, there's still hope for creativity and new opportunities. People can find ways to use AI to enhance their work instead of seeing it only as a threat.

University Grads Flock to Food Delivery as China's Job Market Dries Up

Chinarrative • 216 implied HN points • 10 Dec 23
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. University graduates in China are turning to food delivery jobs due to a tough job market and economic situation.
  2. More educated individuals, including college graduates, are entering the food delivery sector, causing an oversupply of labor and decreasing salaries.
  3. The phenomenon reflects broader employment issues in China, showing a need for improved support from educational institutions and a larger, more diverse job market.

Every Jobs Report In 2025 Has Been Revised Lower

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 10 Jan 26
💰 Finance Labor Market
  1. Every month of 2025 has been revised lower, often sharply, which undermines confidence in the official payroll numbers.
  2. Much of the reported job growth relies on the BLS birth/death adjustment rather than actual payroll gains, so headline positives look artificial once the baseline is considered.
  3. The household survey and broader indicators show mixed signals and structural weakness—lower labor force participation, sector softness, and shifts between full‑time and part‑time work—implying the economy is weaker than the headline jobs figures suggest.

Top Links 626 The coming US labour market shock. Brazil and the bond vigilantes, China and the demand for gold & the triumph of cellular.

Chartbook • 343 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance Labor Market
  1. The US labor market is expected to face a significant shock soon. This means there might be big changes in job availability and employment rates.
  2. Brazil is experiencing challenges from bond vigilantes. These are investors who are cautious about government bonds and could influence Brazil's economy.
  3. China is seeing an increased demand for gold. This trend indicates shifts in how people are valuing money and investments in that country.

Towards a new Golden Generation

Japan Optimist • 216 implied HN points • 24 Jul 23
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. Japan's young generation is set to be economically better off than their parents due to demographic changes.
  2. As labor supply decreases, wages and job quality are increasing in Japan, leading to a rise in full-time job creation.
  3. There is a shift in Japan towards valuing and investing in human capital as the country moves towards a new golden age for its young generation.

METI’s 2025 “Digital Cliff, Part III

Japan Economy Watch • 219 implied HN points • 15 Apr 23
🕹 Technology Labor Market
  1. Changes in the labor market are compensating for the shortage in ICT professionals due to lack of government action.
  2. Companies are offering higher wages to attract experienced ICT workers, and mid-career hiring has significantly increased.
  3. Immigration could be a solution to the ICT labor shortage, but low pay in Japan compared to other countries is a major hindrance.

Links to Consider, 10/13/2024

In My Tribe • 273 implied HN points • 13 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market
  1. Urban areas are not friendly to big families, which contributes to decreasing birth rates. When people live in cities, they often have fewer children than those in suburbs.
  2. Social views on marriage and careers have shifted. Now, many see being a single working woman as more prestigious than being a married stay-at-home mom, which can affect family size.
  3. AI is changing the job market a lot, and there’s going to be a lot of job turnover. The official job numbers might not show the full picture of these changes.

Notes on the Macro-Finance Sitch for 2025-01-13 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 184 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Labor Market
  1. The U.S. labor market is still strong, showing no signs of cooling off. Recently, 256,000 new jobs were added, which is much more than expected.
  2. Inflation in the U.S. hasn't exceeded the Federal Reserve's target since mid-2022, but there's concern it could rise again. The Fed needs to make sure its policies stay neutral to keep inflation in check.
  3. There are worries that the current financial market is overly optimistic. If the expectations for market growth don't pan out, it could lead to a serious economic downturn.

Understanding AI-driven job losses

philsiarri • 89 implied HN points • 05 Jun 25
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. AI is changing the job market, and many jobs could be replaced by machines. This is making people worried about their future work.
  2. Certain industries like manufacturing, finance, and retail are seeing big job cuts because of AI. Fast-food places and banks are automating roles, making it hard for some workers.
  3. While many jobs may be lost, there are new opportunities too. Learning to work with AI tools and adapting to new roles can help people stay employed.

Links to Consider, 11/4/2024

In My Tribe • 227 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Labor Market
  1. The job market is changing due to AI taking over routine office tasks. However, more complex management roles might still require human skills.
  2. Some believe that good foreign policy relies more on talking than on action. Words can sometimes seem like solutions even when they aren't.
  3. Recent manufacturing job growth is happening in places less affected by international trade issues. Many manufacturing jobs are still not unionized, which means fewer protections for workers.

January Payroll Preview

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 58 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
💰 Finance Labor Market
  1. The pre-payrolls labor market data suggests a decrease in job switching affecting wage growth and unemployment rates.
  2. The 'Great Reallocation' from mid-2021 to mid-2022 has evolved into the 'Great Staycation,' impacting wage growth and labor market dynamics.
  3. There are concerns about demand and supply questions in the labor market, leading to a need for potential adjustments and revisions in strategies.

In 2021, Larry Summers Won the Inflation Debate. Now His Victory Is Looking a Little Transitory.

Informer • 98 implied HN points • 16 Feb 23
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. Larry Summers' victory in the inflation debate of 2021-22 is now appearing transitory as inflation rates have steadily decreased without a spike in unemployment.
  2. Wages play a crucial role in determining inflation levels, with high wage inflation being a reliable predictor of high price inflation.
  3. Keynes and his collaborators emphasized the importance of rising money wages as the essence of inflation, diverging from the Quantity Theory of Money.

March Payroll Preview

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 98 implied HN points • 04 Apr 23
💰 Finance Labor Market
  1. The strong headline payroll gains in January and February may be misleading, as demand for labor is slowing.
  2. There are concerns about the labor market catching up due to manufacturing and housing contractions, slowing services demand, and potential issues with small business employment measurement.
  3. The consistency in patterns shown by ADP and NFIB reports compared to the BLS model raises skepticism about the strength in headline payrolls for January and February.

Overcoming the frustration of not knowing whether AI will replace your job

Prawfeed Newsletter • 4 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
💼 Business Labor Market
  1. AI uncertainty is real, but you can separate what’s unknowable (like company adoption or regulation) from what you can learn (which tasks are automatable and how your workplace is changing).
  2. Technology usually changes tasks before it eliminates whole jobs, so make your work AI-complementary by owning judgment, handling exceptions, and adding one or two adjacent skills like data basics or clearer communication.
  3. Use a small set of signals and a simple 2–4 week review cadence to stay responsive without obsessing, let AI reduce your mental load, and reframe the question from “will I be replaced?” to “how will my tasks change?”

Links - 01/31/2024

Value Investing World • 39 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
💰 Finance Labor Market
  1. Investment strategy can be risky, leading to both profits and losses.
  2. Identifying and understanding forms of increasing returns is crucial.
  3. Stay informed about market trends and developments to make informed decisions.