The hottest Monetary Policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

The Social Costs Of Inflation

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 27 implied HN points • 13 Nov 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Inflation affects family life in negative ways. It makes everything more expensive and changes how people make decisions about marriage and having kids.
  2. Working-class families suffer the most from inflation. They find it harder to keep up with rising costs, which makes it tough for them to form and maintain stable families.
  3. A return to sound money could help solve these problems. Fixing the financial system can improve family stability and rebuild society's foundations.

Who Will Fund the AI Century?

Dreams of Electric Sheep • 8 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. AI needs far more capital and compute than traditional markets can easily provide, creating a trillion-dollar financing gap to build the necessary infrastructure.
  2. Stablecoins and tokenized dollar channels are positioned to fill that gap by minting dollar liquidity, buying Treasuries and other dollar assets, and enabling real-time, algorithmic settlement for machine-driven markets.
  3. That shift concentrates huge financial power in stablecoin issuers and ties national security to their health, raising systemic risks if trust or liquidity falters while also reinforcing dollar hegemony and greater state involvement in underwriting compute infrastructure.

The ASOMOCO Top 10 (2024 Edition)

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 226 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💼 Business Monetary Policy
  1. Corporations use simplified interfaces to interact with people, making it easier for us to deal with their complex structures. This can give them a more relatable personality, changing how we perceive them.
  2. Billionaires are often seen as uniquely gifted individuals, but this view overlooks the collaborative efforts of many people that contribute to their success. It's important to understand the collective work behind big achievements.
  3. Surveillance is becoming normalized as companies find new, clever ways to collect our data. They often spin this as a fun experience, making people look forward to sharing their information.

June Wages and Consumer Spending Disappoint Again

Japan Economy Watch • 159 implied HN points • 10 Aug 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Wages in Japan were lower than expected in June, leading to a decrease in real consumer spending. This could impact interest rates and the value of the yen.
  2. Increasing base pay is crucial for long-term financial stability for workers, compared to relying on overtime or bonuses.
  3. The Bank of Japan's policy decisions are influenced by data on wages and inflation, impacting interest rates and the value of the yen.

Increases in the Money Supply, Not Corporate Profits, Drive Price Increases

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 05 Nov 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Rising prices are primarily driven by increases in the money supply rather than businesses simply trying to boost profits. Consumers ultimately decide if they accept the prices set by suppliers.
  2. Price controls may seem like a solution to high prices, but they can lead to shortages and hurt the production process. This could lower the living standards of the people they aim to help.
  3. Inflation comes from central banks increasing the money supply, making it so there is more money chasing the same amount of goods, leading to price increases.
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Infographics: U.S. Repo Market Mechanics

Concoda • 237 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The U.S. repo market is a place where banks and financial institutions borrow and lend money, often overnight.
  2. Understanding how the repo market works is important because it affects interest rates and overall market stability.
  3. Visual infographics can help simplify complex topics like the repo market, making it easier for everyone to understand.

Endgame #3

The Dollar Endgame • 119 implied HN points • 29 Nov 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Japan adjusted its bond yield control policy in an effort to curb interest rates, showing the delicate balance between stimulating the economy and managing debt.
  2. The United States is experiencing increases in national debt and a housing market slowdown due to rising interest rates impacting new home and car sales.
  3. Gold prices have been rising as a safe haven investment, influenced by a weakening dollar and central banks acquiring significant amounts of gold, serving as a potential indicator of future monetary debasement.

The Global Debt Bomb

Diane Francis • 459 implied HN points • 19 Sep 22
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Countries like Sri Lanka are facing serious debt problems, leading to protests and government instability. This could be a warning for other nations with similar financial issues.
  2. Many countries, especially poorer ones, are struggling with rising debt due to high borrowing and the effects of global events like the war in Ukraine. This situation is getting worse and could lead to more defaults.
  3. China's lending practices are a major factor in the growing debt crisis. Their loans often come with tough terms that many countries can't manage, causing additional economic troubles.

Notes on the Macro-Finance Sitch for 2025-01-13 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 184 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The U.S. labor market is still strong, showing no signs of cooling off. Recently, 256,000 new jobs were added, which is much more than expected.
  2. Inflation in the U.S. hasn't exceeded the Federal Reserve's target since mid-2022, but there's concern it could rise again. The Fed needs to make sure its policies stay neutral to keep inflation in check.
  3. There are worries that the current financial market is overly optimistic. If the expectations for market growth don't pan out, it could lead to a serious economic downturn.

The Fed's New Rescue Mechanism

Concoda • 513 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) is expiring after being used to address financial panic and market stimulation caused by banks' underwater assets.
  2. Following a series of bank failures in the aftermath of COVID-19's speculative boom, the Fed introduced the BTFP to provide a confidence boost and stabilize markets.
  3. The BTFP evolved into a risk-free arbitrage opportunity for banks, leading to its rapid increase in volumes before its sudden discontinuation in March 2024.

Proceeding Recklessly

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 137 implied HN points • 23 Sep 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed's forward guidance has significant implications for market outlook, creating uncertainty for the rest of the year.
  2. There are concerns about a bear steepening of the Treasury Curve due to increased Treasury supply and reduced buyers.
  3. Housing affordability has been negatively impacted by monetary policy, leading to structural changes in rental rates.

A Tale of Two Currencies

BowTiedMara - Geoarbitrage & Mobility Assets • 137 implied HN points • 24 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Monetary Policy
  1. Argentina has a history of economic turmoil with multiple currency crises and hyperinflations.
  2. The government deficit in Argentina has grown significantly since 2011, leading to economic challenges.
  3. Potential solutions for Argentina's economic crisis include complete dollarization, adopting a Bitcoin standard, or exploring joint currencies with other countries like China.

Infographics: The Fed's Standing Repo Facility In Action

Concoda • 216 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Federal Reserve has a special tool called a repo facility to manage money supply in the economy. It helps banks borrow money quickly when they need it.
  2. This repo facility can provide short-term loans to banks, which helps keep the financial system stable. It's like a safety net during times of financial stress.
  3. Understanding how this facility works is important for grasping the bigger picture of economic stability and the Fed's role in it. It helps us see how money flows in the economy.

Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*)

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Different models produce very different estimates of the neutral interest rate (R*), so there is a wide range of possible values.
  2. No single model clearly stands out as the most accurate, which means model-based estimates are inherently uncertain.
  3. That uncertainty creates a dilemma for policymakers and analysts, who should treat model outputs cautiously and consider multiple estimates and the range of outcomes.

Reading Kuroda's Mind

Japan Economy Watch • 239 implied HN points • 21 Jan 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda defied market expectations and successfully maintained Japan Government Bond rates below his target, causing losses for speculators.
  2. The perception of high inflation in Japan is misleading due to factors like food and energy prices and statistical illusions.
  3. To achieve sustained inflation and reach the 2% target, Japan needs significant wage hikes, as monetary policy alone has not been sufficient.

The Treasury Market Evolution

Concoda • 524 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. U.S. officials are triggering a transformation in the Treasury market structure.
  2. The rise of principal trading firms brought complexity to the Treasury cash market.
  3. Market players must adapt to a new centrally cleared regime by December 31st, 2025.

The Fed’s FAFO Moment Is Here

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 61 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. People are now more aware of the Fed's actions and how they affect the economy. Thanks to memes and social media, understanding monetary policy has become easier for everyone.
  2. The Federal Reserve's credibility is fading as more people realize its reliance on low interest rates and money printing. This could lead to major shifts in how money is viewed and used.
  3. With growing knowledge, many are opting for alternatives like Bitcoin over traditional fiat currency. This trend indicates a potential crisis for the Fed if they can't regain public trust.

MoneyLion Pays $1.75M to Settle Military Lending Act Allegations

Fintech Business Weekly • 14 implied HN points • 30 Nov 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. U.S. banks showed stronger results in Q3 with higher net income, slightly wider net interest margins, lower credit loss provisions, and smaller unrealized losses on securities.
  2. MoneyLion will pay about $1.75 million and must change its practices after regulators found it violated the Military Lending Act by letting membership fees push covered borrowers’ rates above the 36% cap and by blocking cancellations and certain collections.
  3. Most banks are not prioritizing stablecoins or tokenized deposits — only a tiny number see issuing a stablecoin as a high priority, though there is modest interest in holding reserves or offering custodial services for third‑party issuers.

Video: Weakest Real Yen In Half Century Reflects Deterioration of Japan’s Competitiveness

Japan Economy Watch • 279 implied HN points • 14 Nov 22
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. In the short term, Tokyo has limited options to address yen's weakness primarily due to the gap between American and Japanese interest rates.
  2. The weak yen reflects not just monetary policy differences but also a significant decline in Japan's real competitiveness over the years.
  3. To improve the situation, Japan needs to focus on reforms that enhance the country's underlying efficiency, making Japanese firms competitive in the global market once again.

The Fed's Global Dilemma

Concoda • 794 implied HN points • 01 May 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The banking system has evolved significantly post the 2007/08 Great Financial Crisis, leading to changes in global monetary standards and U.S. central bank's mechanisms.
  2. Regulatory standards like LCR, NSFR, and SLR have transformed major financial institutions into stable entities, impacting their ability to engage in certain financial activities.
  3. The Federal Reserve introduced new mechanisms like Jaws of the Fed™ to control money market rates and ensure financial stability, but faces a dilemma with vulnerabilities in its global lower jaws.

The Fed Doesn’t Determine the Price of Credit; Markets Do

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 25 Nov 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Federal Reserve doesn't control credit prices; they are determined by the market's supply and demand. This means that even if the Fed sets interest rates, actual market rates can be higher or lower based on financial conditions.
  2. Recent events in the repo market show that when the government's borrowing increases, it can lead to tighter liquidity in banks, affecting interest rates. This reveals the limits of the Fed's ability to manage short-term capital markets.
  3. To create a strong monetary system, it's important for central banks to recognize their limits and focus on stabilizing money value. Interest rates should be left to the market, not manipulated by policymakers.

Is Japan’s Inflation Really At a 40-Year High?

Japan Economy Watch • 259 implied HN points • 21 Nov 22
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Japan's inflation trend is not accurately represented by the headline figure of a 40-year high, considering the measure used is specific and not reflective of overall inflation.
  2. Year-to-year comparisons of inflation can be misleading, especially for products with price volatility, potentially skewing the true underlying trend.
  3. The causes and implications of inflation must be carefully analyzed to determine the appropriate monetary policy response, balancing economic growth with the impact of higher interest rates.

First Principles of Fiscal Policy, with Some of Their Practical Applications

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 123 implied HN points • 22 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Monetary Policy
  1. The Federal Reserve's approach in the 2020s, which involved acting quickly, turned out to be effective. Many people are thankful for the leadership during this time.
  2. Inflation in the early 2020s might not have been bad because it helped avoid a deeper recession and led to a better economy in some ways.
  3. Voters who understood the economy generally supported Democrats, while those who were confused tended to back Republicans. This shows how informed opinions can influence political choices.

The Treasury's Gambit

Concoda • 653 implied HN points • 27 May 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Monetary leaders are implementing new tools to prevent instability in the bond market and stimulate risk assets without central bank assistance.
  2. Regulatory constraints have hindered major liquidity providers in the Treasury market, leading to the need for Treasury buyback programs to enhance liquidity.
  3. The U.S. Treasury is set to conduct buyback programs in 2024 to manage cash, boost liquidity, and potentially lower expenses and yields in the secondary Treasury market.

Audio Debate On Japan’s Inflation, Interest Rates, and Low Growth

Japan Economy Watch • 239 implied HN points • 07 Nov 22
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Central banks no longer target money supply because the relationship between money growth and inflation became unstable due to changes in financial markets.
  2. In Japan, weak demand for goods and services, not poor monetary policy, has kept interest rates near zero for over a quarter century.
  3. Low aggregate demand in Japan is driven by falling household incomes, lack of competitiveness, and companies hesitating to expand due to weak capacity utilization.

The US national debt reached $34.5 trillion, an all-time record, but does it actually matter?

Global Markets Investor • 39 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The US national debt has reached a record $34.5 trillion, increasing by $1 trillion every 100 days since June. This high level of debt poses challenges for the government and future generations.
  2. The US debt-to-GDP ratio is currently at 123.7%, near the all-time high. A high ratio decreases a country's ability to pay back debts and could lead to default or inflation-adjusted losses for investors.
  3. A country with a debt-to-GDP ratio above 130% historically has a high probability of default. High debt levels can limit future investments, impact economic growth, and reduce flexibility in responding to crises.

The FED has left the US Banking System Destabilized after Unprecedented Interest Rate Cycle

Modern Value Investing • 98 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. US banks are facing increased risks of deposit outflows due to systemic vulnerabilities in the banking system.
  2. Unattractive interest rates on deposits compared to treasuries have left US banks trapped without sacrificing profitability.
  3. The FED must act quickly by reducing interest rates to stabilize the banking system and prevent further harm to the economy.

WSJ Editorial Cites My Writings on BOJ Dilemma

Japan Economy Watch • 179 implied HN points • 18 Jan 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its monetary policy which initially impacted the currency exchange rate and bond yields.
  2. An editorial in the Wall Street Journal referenced writings by Richard Katz concerning the BOJ policy, shedding light on the ongoing discussions.
  3. Richard Katz had a letter to the editor published in response to an op-ed about BOJ policy, showcasing differing opinions and contributing to the dialogue.

Why investors are getting the US debasement trade all wrong

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 16 Feb 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The popular "dollar debasement" trade is overblown and investors are likely overestimating how much trouble the dollar actually faces.
  2. Investors are underestimating the risk to U.S. Treasuries, which may be the more vulnerable asset class right now.
  3. Either the debasement narrative is misplaced or investors are only catching up to trends that began about fifteen years ago, so this isn’t a new surprise and may reflect outdated thinking.

The Repo Market Blindspot

Concoda • 475 implied HN points • 25 Jul 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Monetary leaders are delving into the secretive world of the Repo Market Blindspot.
  2. Following the 2008 crisis, efforts were made to stabilize the global dollar paradigm.
  3. The focus is now on regulating the non-centrally cleared bilateral repo market to prevent potential instability.

The path to a new sovereign accounting

Gray Mirror • 35 implied HN points • 03 Aug 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Complex financial systems often hide the reality of the economy. When things are complicated, it can be hard to see the true state of finances.
  2. Merging the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve could simplify how the government manages money. This change would make it clearer that they are part of the same system.
  3. The money supply is being diluted to support the economy, not just through jobs. This means our financial stability relies on printing more money, impacting everyone differently.