The hottest Monetary Policy Substack posts right now

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Top Finance Topics

The Year-End Money Market Storm

Concoda • 464 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Demand for funding is very high right now, causing banks to struggle. This could lead to big changes in money markets by the end of the year.
  2. Many traders are looking for ways to finance their stock trades, leading to more activity in repo markets. This means borrowing money using stocks as collateral is becoming common.
  3. There's a big challenge with U.S. government debt right now. The banks need to buy up a lot of unwanted debt at a time when borrowing money is getting tougher.

De-dollarization Attack

Diane Francis • 559 implied HN points • 13 Apr 23
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The US Dollar is seen as a stable and reliable currency globally, much more so than other national currencies and cryptocurrencies. This stability comes from a strong economy and the trust in its government.
  2. Russia's attempts to promote the use of the Chinese Yuan and create a new currency are unlikely to weaken the dominance of the US Dollar. In fact, they may end up increasing China's dependency on dollar reserves for stability.
  3. While there is some competition in global currencies, none are poised to replace the dollar until they are backed by strong, dynamic economies that have military power and stable governments.

The Sword of Damocles

The Dollar Endgame • 319 implied HN points • 30 Aug 23
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The global financial system heavily depends on the US dollar, causing a constant demand for dollars worldwide.
  2. Triffin's Dilemma and the Dollar Milkshake Theory highlight the systemic risks and implications of the US dollar's dominance.
  3. The Fed plays a critical role in stabilizing the global financial system by supplying dollars; any missteps could lead to widespread financial instability.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 405 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The upcoming U.S. presidential inauguration and a new Treasury Secretary may lead to changes in the money market. This could create opportunities for profits.
  2. The debt ceiling issue is affecting liquidity and will lead to market volatility. When resolved, it will change the flow of money in the markets.
  3. Foreign investors are becoming more interested in U.S. Treasuries due to better returns. This could impact how these markets operate in the near future.

Inflation And The Moral Erosion of Society

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 46 implied HN points • 19 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Inflation is often misunderstood as just rising prices, but it's really about the government increasing money supply. This change in meaning makes it hard for people to see who is really responsible for the problem.
  2. When money loses value due to inflation, it affects people's lives deeply. It rewards borrowing and spending over saving, changing how society thinks about money and effort.
  3. To fix the issues caused by inflation, we need to go back to honest money that retains its value. Sound money can help society reconnect with hard work and planning for the future.
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There Are Three Ways to Get Rid of Inflation. One Is "Impossible" and One Will Destroy the Country.

Surviving Tomorrow • 314 implied HN points • 18 May 23
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Inflation impacts different groups differently: savers punished, poor robbed, debtors rewarded.
  2. Eradicating inflation can be done by destroying the working class, taxing the rich, or creating anti-inflation money.
  3. Anti-inflation money involves investing in new assets, taxing back excessive money, and destroying it for common well-being.

Fischer Black vs. Monetarism

In My Tribe • 455 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Fischer Black believed that both money supply and price levels are based on collective beliefs rather than strict numbers. People accept money because they trust others will accept it too.
  2. Inflation and prices are influenced more by market behavior and expectations rather than solely by money supply. This means prices can change based on what people think will happen in the future.
  3. The relationship between money and prices might be less reliable than before. As people use less cash and more digital forms of payment, traditional ways to predict inflation might not work well anymore.

What causes inflation? Economists Radhika Desai & Michael Hudson explain

Geopolitical Economy Report • 378 implied HN points • 27 Jan 23
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Inflation is driven by a shift to financialized capitalism, where assets are inflated while wages and consumer spending are squeezed.
  2. Central banks like the Federal Reserve prioritize the interests of the financial sector over addressing inflation or promoting productive growth.
  3. The current inflationary environment is rooted in financial bubbles, debt creation, and the failure to address the structural imbalances in the economy.

Infographics: Centrally Cleared U.S. Treasury Market Flows

Concoda • 178 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The U.S. Treasury market uses a central counterparty to manage trades. This helps ensure that transactions are processed smoothly and securely.
  2. Understanding the flow of money in the U.S. Treasury market is important for seeing how the economy functions. It gives insights into larger financial trends.
  3. Infographics can help simplify complex information about the Treasury market, making it easier to understand for everyone. Visuals often make learning about finance more accessible.

The Future Monetary System (From: Regulators)

DeFi Education • 439 implied HN points • 30 Jun 23
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Federal Reserve's new service called FedNow will start on July 1st. It will allow people to send and receive money instantly, anytime, day or night.
  2. This real-time payment system is much faster than traditional banking, which can take days for transactions to clear.
  3. With FedNow, transferring money will take only seconds, making it easier for everyone to manage their finances.

Stocks Surge as Investors Take Victory Lap Around a Sinkhole

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 42 implied HN points • 21 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The stock market is showing signs of a bear market rally rather than a strong recovery. Some quick rises in stocks do not fix deeper economic issues.
  2. Current economic problems like high auto loan delinquencies and softening profit margins are not going away. They're happening right now and need immediate attention.
  3. Lower interest rates may take a long time to affect the economy, and the financial challenges we're facing will not be resolved by optimistic headlines or temporary stock gains.

The Continental Bait-and-Switch

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Continentals were accepted at first because people believed they could be redeemed for gold or silver, so the paper acted like a claim to real money.
  2. But leaders kept printing Continentals, broke the redemption promise, and used price controls and legal tender laws to force acceptance, which caused severe inflation and effectively cheated people in a bait-and-switch.
  3. This episode shows paper money’s value often rests on expectations of specie redemption, not just on taxes or legal coercion, so a government declaration alone may not create lasting monetary value.

SLOSH SLOSH

ANDREA CECCHI Newsletter • 157 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Maintaining the illusion of liquidity is crucial to the system's survival
  2. The Reverse Repo system creates the illusion of liquidity in the financial system
  3. Dismantling the current economic system is complex and requires careful balance

Every Jobs Report In 2025 Has Been Revised Lower

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 10 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Every month of 2025 has been revised lower, often sharply, which undermines confidence in the official payroll numbers.
  2. Much of the reported job growth relies on the BLS birth/death adjustment rather than actual payroll gains, so headline positives look artificial once the baseline is considered.
  3. The household survey and broader indicators show mixed signals and structural weakness—lower labor force participation, sector softness, and shifts between full‑time and part‑time work—implying the economy is weaker than the headline jobs figures suggest.

Wage Hikes in April Fail Their First Test

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 07 Jun 23
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Wage hikes in April in Japan fell short of expectations, rising only by 1% instead of the predicted 2%, indicating a potential setback for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
  2. Real wages in Japan have been dropping for years, not just a temporary post-Covid issue, leading to reduced consumer spending and overall economic impact.
  3. The slow wage growth in Japan has implications on inflation rates, with the Bank of Japan waiting for a 3% nominal wage hike to consider monetary policy changes.

The Fed's Repo Defensive: Part I

Concoda • 508 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed's repo facility has been used for the first time by major market players during a tough financial period. This shows it can help keep rates in check, but there are still issues to address.
  2. Over the past few years, the Fed's approach to managing its balance sheet has led to unstable liquidity in money markets. This instability caused significant rate spikes and raised concerns about the overall health of the financial system.
  3. When money market rates soared unexpectedly, it prompted the Fed to step in as a major lender. This was a significant move to bring balance back to the financial markets and highlight the Fed's critical role in managing economic stability.

Chartbook 216: Heroic periodization: histories of Bretton Woods & the "New Washington Consensus"

Chartbook • 1745 implied HN points • 29 May 23
🌍 World Politics Monetary Policy
  1. The era of Bretton Woods had a complex history and its implications for today's economic policy are significant.
  2. Historical narratives like Bretton Woods can be used to legitimize and motivate action, but may not always align with reality.
  3. Understanding the continuous process of policy-making improvisation without succumbing to its complexities is crucial for shaping economic policy.

The Return Of Quantitative Easing

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed has stopped shrinking its balance sheet and is restarting quantitative easing to keep reserves ample and preserve policy flexibility.
  2. Huge Treasury deficits and political pressure have pushed up demand for reserves, so the Fed is buying assets to ease policy without formally cutting the federal funds rate.
  3. Restarting QE will help lower government borrowing costs and reduce the Fed’s interest bill, but it risks higher inflation and may look like capitulation to political pressure.

Longer, Higher For Longer

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Interest rates are the core price that coordinates savings and investment, and heavy central-bank intervention has turned them into an administered price that can obscure real market signals.
  2. After a forty-year decline, long-term rates may be shifting higher because of large government debt, weaker anti-inflation norms, and adverse demographics — implying bonds could be "longer, higher for longer."
  3. If long rates stay higher, long-term bonds and real stock returns will likely suffer while commodities (especially gold) may outperform; keeping a very low fixed-rate mortgage and favoring companies with easy access to commodities could make sense.

The Gold Standard, Explained

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 30 implied HN points • 02 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The gold standard linked a country's money to a fixed weight of gold, which made currencies stable and predictable for trading. This helped nations cooperate and trade more easily.
  2. Supporters of the gold standard believe it prevents inflation and government overspending, while critics say it's too rigid for today's economy. It can limit how quickly countries respond to economic crises.
  3. The gold standard fell out of favor mainly due to the pressures of wars and economic changes, leading to modern money systems that are more flexible but can also cause inflation and debt issues.

Reading the Mind of BOJ Chief Ueda

Japan Economy Watch • 279 implied HN points • 22 May 23
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is determined to maintain current policies and resist pressure to raise interest rates, emphasizing the importance of waiting for sustained 2% inflation before making any changes.
  2. Japan's inflation is mainly cost-push due to external factors like energy and food prices influenced by global events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with wage hikes seen as essential for achieving the desired price and wage growth balance.
  3. A key aspect for Japan's economic recovery and future inflation rate is the slow GDP growth, indicating that the economy is operating below capacity, which poses challenges for potential consumer inflation.

Why Silver is Outperforming Gold (Again)

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 12 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Macro forces like Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and ongoing inflation are lifting precious metals, and silver is riding the same tailwind that’s helped gold.
  2. Silver’s role as both a monetary metal and an industrial input—used in electronics, solar panels and EVs—is creating extra real-world demand that can push its price higher than gold’s.
  3. Silver’s lower per-ounce price and higher volatility make it more attractive to retail buyers and short-term traders (unit bias), which amplifies percentage gains and helps it outpace gold in bull markets.

Money Supply Growth Surges to Multi-Year High

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 08 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The money supply has accelerated in recent months, with TMS at a multi-year high and M2 hitting record levels above $22 trillion.
  2. That surge is happening despite weak economic signs like rising layoffs, bankruptcies, and rising delinquencies, which makes the growth surprising.
  3. Fed easing (rate cuts and slower quantitative tightening) plus commercial bank lending are driving the increase, and a large share of today’s money stock was created since 2009 and especially since 2020.

The Japanese Maginot Line

The Dollar Endgame • 239 implied HN points • 13 Aug 23
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Bank of Japan's shift in monetary policy caused chaos in FX and stock markets. The volatility in bond markets led to unscheduled bond-buying operations.
  2. Yield Curve Control aims to keep bond yields in a tight range to suppress yields and maintain accommodative monetary policy. This strategy becomes crucial in Japan with high government debt.
  3. The BoJ is strategically intervening in bond rates, pushing them back down whenever they approach a certain threshold. They aim to maintain confusion and market control.

The Fed's Repo Defensive: Part II

Concoda • 367 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed's Repo Facility helps provide emergency cash loans to banks when needed. This is crucial during times of financial stress to keep the market stable.
  2. Recently, there have been instances where dealers didn't fully utilize the available funds in the repo facility, indicating issues with how it's being accessed. This suggests that the process needs improvements to encourage more usage.
  3. The Fed is looking to make changes to the repo facility to fix its shortcomings and ensure dealers can quickly and efficiently obtain emergency funds when crises arise.

November 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Multiple inflation measures — shelter CPI (which is lagged), Zillow’s rent estimate, core CPI, goods, and services — are all converging toward about 2%.
  2. Rent inflation functions largely as a transfer rather than a production cost, so it probably shouldn’t drive monetary policy and could be excluded from policy price indexes.
  3. With shelter removed, inflation sits near 2%, but tariffs have pushed goods prices up, suggesting the true neutral target may be a bit higher and there’s room for slightly more stimulative policy.

Five Decades Of Currency Rot: Lyn Alden

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 05 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Currency debasement is a long-running, multi-decade trend that accelerated after currencies were decoupled from gold, and it has generally boosted asset prices and favored people who own assets over those who rely mainly on labor.
  2. The real pain for savers comes from interest-adjusted debasement — when money supply grows faster than bond yields, bondholders lose purchasing power, as seen in the big debasement spikes around 2020–21.
  3. The era of steadily falling long-term interest rates is likely over, so debasement may continue but with a weaker tailwind for valuations; bonds may still lose value in real terms but not as rapidly, and investors should expect different relative performance across stocks, gold, crypto, and housing.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 318 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. The Federal Reserve is not worried about the debt ceiling impacting its plans to reduce its balance sheet. They believe liquidity in money markets is still high.
  2. The U.S. Treasury has enough resources to manage until around mid-2025, but any delays in addressing the debt ceiling could create funding issues.
  3. Equity repos, which involve borrowing cash using stocks as collateral, are becoming more popular. This trend is linked to rising demand and values of equities.

Financial Bubbles: How They Make Us Poorer

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 17 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. When central banks pump money and push down interest rates, cheap credit funds projects that wouldn’t be viable under normal market conditions, creating malinvestment and financial bubbles.
  2. Those bubble activities are unsustainable and tend to collapse when money supply growth or cheap lending falls, causing boom–bust cycles, distorted prices, and economic harm.
  3. The cure is to stop monetary meddling and cut government spending so investment reflects real savings and consumer demand; simple tax swaps won’t fix the problem if overall spending keeps rising.

The Fed & the Central Banking Order of Operations

Without Warning • 196 implied HN points • 10 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Central banks follow a specific order of operations during financial crises, involving rate cuts, quantitative easing, and emergency liquidity facilities.
  2. Dallas Fed President raised the idea of separating asset runoff from rate adjustments, suggesting that the balance sheet and rate policy can be independent during market instability.
  3. Fed officials are discussing the possibility of actively growing the balance sheet during monetary tightening, signaling a potential shift from the traditional central banking order of operations.

Central Bankers Disagree About Gold

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 27 implied HN points • 22 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Gold prices have significantly risen, which some believe signals trouble for the US dollar and the overall financial system. This raises questions about the stability of fiat currencies.
  2. Central bankers have differing views on gold's relevance; while one downplays gold's importance, another sees its rising value as a sign of eroding trust in the dollar. This shows a divide in how they understand economic stability.
  3. Gold remains a crucial asset for central banks, sometimes even more so than government securities, indicating that it is still valued as a safe haven in uncertain times.

Revisiting One Last Funny Chart

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy
  1. Low interest rates are often thought to cause high housing prices, but the actual situation is more complicated and involves other factors.
  2. Migration from places like Los Angeles to Phoenix affected housing demand, suggesting that it wasn't just low rates driving the price spikes.
  3. There's debate about how much the increase in debt and risky borrowing contributed to the housing market issues, complicating the traditional narratives about housing crises.

The Affordability Equation

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 06 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Monetary Policy
  1. How affordable a good is depends on how much output each hour of labor produces (labor productivity) multiplied by a discount factor that reflects time preferences and production delays, so higher productivity and faster production make things cheaper in labor-hours.
  2. Affordability rises when labor becomes more productive — through better technology, skills, more capital and natural resources, or a smaller labor supply — and when people save more so investment can finance longer production processes.
  3. Government actions like taxes, large spending, regulation, and state-run production tend to reduce affordability by lowering wages, discouraging investment, bidding up prices, and misallocating resources, so cutting taxes/spending and removing restrictions is presented as the way to improve affordability.