The hottest Federal Reserve Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Disinflation is here: But it's not the kind we want!

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
💰 Finance Federal Reserve
  1. Disinflation means prices are rising more slowly, but that doesn't always mean good news. If people aren't spending because they can't afford things, it can signal trouble in the economy.
  2. The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in response to disinflation to try and encourage spending, but this might just be a way to show they are doing something without fixing the deeper issues.
  3. Sticky prices and disinflation can show that people are struggling financially. For a healthy economy, we need wages to rise so people can spend more, rather than just seeing temporary price drops.

Brace Yourselves: The Jobs Market Is Teetering on the Edge

COVID Reason • 475 implied HN points • 03 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Reserve
  1. Hiring is way down and fewer jobs are being created. This shows that companies are worried about the future.
  2. People are not leaving their jobs as much because they feel the job market is risky. They prefer to stay where they are to avoid unemployment.
  3. The Federal Reserve is taking actions like cutting rates, but these steps won't fix the deeper problems in the job market that stem from lower demand for goods and services.

Will the Supreme Court Save the Fed from Trump?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 268 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Reserve
  1. The president tried to fire a Federal Reserve governor for the first time to push the Fed toward interest-rate cuts. It was an unprecedented attempt to influence monetary policy.
  2. Federal Reserve governors are legally protected and can be removed only for cause, a rule meant to shield the central bank from political interference. This statutory protection preserves the Fed’s independence.
  3. The Supreme Court’s arguments suggested it may reject broad presidential power to remove central-bank officials and uphold the Fed’s autonomy. At the same time, the court might still permit greater presidential control over other kinds of appointees.

ORANGE MAN, BAD MACRO: Trump’s War on Powell & Economic-Policy Reality

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 315 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Reserve
  1. The president is trying to criminalize Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell for doing his job and resisting political pressure, which threatens Fed independence and the rule of law.
  2. Powell’s monetary policy largely succeeded: it sustained growth before COVID, supported spending during the pandemic to avoid a deep depression, and powered a rapid post-vaccine recovery toward full employment, although that recovery contributed to a higher price level partly driven by external shocks.
  3. The administration’s immigration enforcement and broader tactics are becoming brutal and politicized, and some officials who enable or tolerate these actions should have resigned instead of staying on.

Quick Essay: The Federal Reserve and Critical Moments in U.S. Monetary Policy

Chamath Palihapitiya • 3871 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
💰 Finance Federal Reserve
  1. Before the Federal Reserve, the U.S. had banking issues and crises, leading to the need for a central bank in 1913.
  2. The Great Depression prompted key reforms like the Banking Act of 1933 and the Gold Reserve Act of 1934.
  3. The end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 marked a shift to Fiat currency and the decline of the gold standard.
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The U.S. Economy Refuses to Slow Down

The Overshoot • 1513 implied HN points • 18 Jan 24
💰 Finance Federal Reserve
  1. The U.S. economy is showing strong growth, with hiring and sales still on the rise.
  2. Inflation is a concern as it seems to be faster than 2%.
  3. Despite a slight slowdown in some areas, overall macro conditions in the U.S. are positive with strong jobs, incomes, and spending.

In a Perfect World, Powell Would Not Be Fed Chairman and Trump Would Be President

Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 2397 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Reserve
  1. In a perfect world, Peter Navarro believes Jerome Powell wouldn't be the Fed Chairman and Trump would still be the President.
  2. Navarro discusses how Mnuchin convinced Trump to appoint Powell, who in turn negatively impacted the economy.
  3. Navarro criticizes Powell's policies and highlights the challenges of dealing with stagflation and the Federal Reserve's limitations.

A Fed Chair the Markets Will Love

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 268 implied HN points • 01 Dec 25
💰 Finance Federal Reserve
  1. Kevin Hassett looks likely to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, and markets would welcome his nomination.
  2. He is less worried about market bubbles and investor exuberance, so AI and other hot stocks would probably keep rising under his leadership.
  3. That short-term market lift could create long-term risks, since continued loose policy might inflame bubbles and cause trouble down the road.

Sacred Cows

The Lens • 904 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Reserve
  1. Economists, market participants, pundits, and policymakers got some big things wrong in recent years, like the transitory nature of inflation.
  2. The public perception of elites may be that they often know nothing, even elites admit to being wrong on significant matters.
  3. There was a discussion on the impact of rate hikes on inflation, challenging the traditional narrative and the idea that monetary policy has no effect.

The Fed is only looking to past inflation, and that's a problem.

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 805 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Federal Reserve
  1. The Fed is focusing only on past inflation, and this approach may lead to problems with monetary policy decisions.
  2. Recent data shows a rapid decrease in inflation over the past six months, suggesting a return towards the 2% target.
  3. Despite strong economic growth and high interest rates, the Fed continues to rely heavily on backward-looking inflation data for its decision-making.

Government Overreach Always Happens

Points And Figures • 772 implied HN points • 23 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Reserve
  1. Government often tends to grow beyond its original limits. Once established, many agencies want to expand their budgets and influence.
  2. The Federal Reserve has strayed from its main goals and is getting involved in political issues, which is not its intended role.
  3. There is a need to trim down government departments and agencies that are unnecessary, as many functions could be privatized or integrated into existing structures.

Delayed Pain

Points And Figures • 692 implied HN points • 17 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Reserve
  1. Tariffs might not be causing the inflation that some experts predicted. In fact, they can act like a tax, which might actually lower prices instead of raising them.
  2. The economy reacts slowly to changes like interest rate adjustments or tariffs. People and businesses need time to adapt and this can affect their sales and planning.
  3. Watching how middle-class consumers spend their money can give clues about the economy's health. If they're cutting back on luxury items, it could signal trouble ahead.

FOMC Day

Points And Figures • 586 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
💰 Finance Federal Reserve
  1. Markets may not have much action until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) makes its announcement. Things could get interesting once they speak.
  2. Tariffs and other economic policies under the current administration seem to be showing positive results, with inflation and gas prices down. Many initial concerns have not materialized.
  3. There are questions about whether the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady. Some believe that lowering them could be beneficial for the economy and taxpayers.

Michael Hudson: Why the US banking system is breaking up

Geopolitical Economy Report • 1275 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
💰 Finance Federal Reserve
  1. The US banking system is facing a significant crisis due to the consequences of past actions, like the 2009 bank bailout and the quantitative easing measures that followed.
  2. Rising interest rates are causing bond prices to fall, which is putting pressure on banks as their assets decrease in value against deposit liabilities.
  3. The current banking crisis is reminiscent of past financial failures, like the savings and loan crisis in the 1980s, and is exacerbated by factors like the cryptocurrency wave and derivatives trading.

STEALTH QE

The Dollar Endgame • 319 implied HN points • 11 Apr 24
💰 Finance Federal Reserve
  1. The Federal Reserve implemented liquidity injections in response to financial chaos post-COVID-19, leading to a tapering process that raised questions about the true nature of the measures.
  2. Despite the apparent tapering by the Fed, financial markets didn't react as expected, hinting at an expansion in the authorities' toolkit that analysts might not fully comprehend.
  3. The evolution of liquidity measures and updated understandings about the Fed's balance sheet reveal a broader range of tools and potentially hidden liquidity injections.

Macroeconomy Now Below "Stall Speed"?

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 484 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
💰 Finance Federal Reserve
  1. Job creation in the U.S. is slowing down, with only about 35,000 new jobs added each month lately. This is not enough to keep unemployment from rising.
  2. Inflation risks are still increasing, mainly due to trade issues and supply chain problems. These factors could lead to economic issues like stagflation, where both inflation and unemployment rise.
  3. There's a major boom in data-center construction, driven by AI investments. This is impacting prices and inflation, showing that certain sectors can create upward pressure on costs even when overall consumer demand isn't high.

Yes, Kevin Hassett Would Be a Very Bed Fed Chair

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 453 implied HN points • 07 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Reserve
  1. Kevin Hassett is seen as untrustworthy because he often promotes misleading or false information for personal gain. People believe he shouldn't be in a position of power like the Federal Reserve Chair.
  2. In the past, Hassett made bold claims about the stock market that turned out to be incorrect. This history makes many economists skeptical of his insights.
  3. Despite his controversial reputation, Hassett has continued to maintain a career in politics, which suggests that some influential people appreciate his willingness to say whatever suits their interests.

Bitcoin Rips To $48,000 & Debt Monetization Is On The Way: TBL Weekly #80

The Bitcoin Layer • 393 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
💰 Finance Federal Reserve
  1. Record-breaking first-month inflows for 9 new spot bitcoin ETFs have accumulated $31.6 billion in assets, driving bitcoin to highs above $48,000.
  2. With US Treasury facing funding needs leading to debt monetization surge, Fed liquidity could significantly increase over the coming months.
  3. The Fed might need to monetize Treasury debt due to lack of buyers and liquidity issues, potentially impacting financial market stability and global liquidity.

SCARCE TO ABUNDANT RESERVES

The MacroTourist • 432 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
💰 Finance Federal Reserve
  1. In 2008, the Federal Reserve had a significant change with Congress allowing them to pay interest on reserves.
  2. This change led to a shift from a monetary system of scarce reserves to abundant reserves.
  3. It's important to consider this shift when analyzing the Federal Reserve and the yield curve for forecasting.

The Powell Affair and the Limits of The Fed’s Immunity

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 34 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Reserve
  1. Public officials, including the Fed chair, must be held accountable if they misled Congress; oversight is a constitutional check, not a political gimmick.
  2. Central bank independence should not mean immunity from law or oversight, especially given the Fed’s recent policy overreach and failures like high inflation.
  3. Political motives do not excuse shielding officials from investigation; enforcing the law preserves democratic accountability and forces a debate about how much power the government should have over money.

Trump’s Fed Chair Candidates: Sub-Mediocrity of Moral Character, at Best. & the Worst Plumb the Challenger Deep Along Several Axes

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 253 implied HN points • 14 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Reserve
  1. The candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair are not impressive and many lack important qualities like intelligence and moral character. This raises concerns about who will make crucial decisions.
  2. Donald Trump's past choices have been criticized as poor, especially regarding the Fed. It's suggested that he should let the Senate choose a more qualified candidate this time.
  3. The current picks are seen as politically driven rather than based on merit, which is troubling for the future of U.S. economic policy.

The Federal Reserve Today: Caught Between Political Theatrics, Economic Uncertainty, & Its Own Institutional-Personnel Caution

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 322 implied HN points • 14 Jul 25
💰 Finance Federal Reserve
  1. The Federal Reserve is struggling with economic uncertainty and political pressures, which makes decision-making tough. They're cautious about how tariffs and other factors will affect the economy.
  2. Current economic conditions, like a weakening job market and inflation, might push the Fed to cut interest rates soon. However, they need to see more evidence before taking action.
  3. Trump’s past choices for Fed leadership are impacting the current situation. His preference for a consensus-builder over a strong policy leader has resulted in paralysis at the Fed.

Quadrilemma

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 373 implied HN points • 06 Jan 24
💰 Finance Federal Reserve
  1. The market outlook suggests it's time to increase exposure to cyclical sectors.
  2. Understanding the market implied policy path, earnings expectations, and the Fed's reaction function is crucial for making strategic investment decisions.
  3. A healthy broadening out in the market may require certain economic conditions to be met, like unemployment rates and average hourly earnings.

US government bailout of Silicon Valley and banks is $300B gift to rich oligarchs

Geopolitical Economy Report • 518 implied HN points • 19 Mar 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Reserve
  1. The US government printed $300 billion in a week to bail out Silicon Valley and banks, ensuring all uninsured deposits were paid, benefitting wealthy oligarchs and venture capital firms.
  2. Silicon Valley Bank, while portrayed as supporting start-ups, actually catered mostly to venture capitalists and had risky practices, ultimately requiring a massive bailout.
  3. The Federal Reserve's $300 billion bailout exposed a double standard: the rich get bailed out while the government resists increased regulation that could prevent future crises, showing a system of privilege for the elite.

Stuffing the Coffers

The Dollar Endgame • 279 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
💰 Finance Federal Reserve
  1. Regulatory changes post-2008 require banks to hold more US Treasuries. However, banks are running out of space and time.
  2. The Fed made an exemption of Treasury bonds from the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) to boost lending and stabilize markets during the COVID-19 crisis.
  3. The SLR calculates a bank's solvency by dividing Tier 1 Capital against assets. Adjustments during crises help banks manage potential losses better.

How Long Can the Fed’s Independence Last?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 217 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Reserve
  1. The Federal Reserve's independence is being challenged due to political pressures, especially from figures like Donald Trump.
  2. Critics believe current Fed policies have worsened income inequality and fear they could lead to inflation.
  3. Some economic experts argue that the Fed's bond-buying programs primarily benefit Wall Street rather than the general public.

Bitcoin never goes up in a straight line

Ecoinometrics • 432 implied HN points • 27 Oct 23
💰 Finance Federal Reserve
  1. Bitcoin's price trajectory includes violent corrections even if the bear market is over.
  2. The Federal Reserve is actively reducing its balance sheet, but still has a long way to go post-COVID.
  3. The inversion of the yield curve suggests a potential recession within the next 6 months, which could impact investments like Bitcoin.

Repo Crisis Revisited

The Dollar Endgame • 199 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
💰 Finance Federal Reserve
  1. The repo market is crucial for global finance, and it broke down in September 2019, causing significant repercussions.
  2. The Federal Reserve has been deeply involved in the repo market to ensure the smooth functioning of the world's secured borrowing system.
  3. In September 2019, there was a sudden surge in overnight money market rates, leading to unexpected fluctuations and challenges in the financial system.

Saturday Macro: Fed Independence as Your Screentime-Limit Phone App

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 199 implied HN points • 19 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Reserve
  1. Legal independence for central banks isn't enough to protect them from political pressure. Even with strong legal backing, central banks can still feel the heat from politicians, affecting their decisions.
  2. Under recent political pressure, inflation expectations have increased, even if central banks don't change their policies. This can lead to higher actual inflation, damaging the credibility of these institutions.
  3. The economic outlook may be shifting downward, with slower growth expected in the future. Keeping inflation rates above 2% is becoming more crucial as the economy faces different challenges.

Does the Federal Reserve Deserve Deference as a Bank Regulator? Kevin Warsh Says "No"

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 269 implied HN points • 29 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Reserve
  1. Kevin Warsh believes the Federal Reserve should not have authority over bank regulation and should defer to the Treasury instead. This raises questions about what role the Fed really should play in the financial system.
  2. Historically, the U.S. economy has struggled during banking crises due to a lack of a strong central bank. Events like the Panic of 1907 highlighted the need for a central authority to manage financial stability.
  3. The effectiveness of the Federal Reserve hinges on its ability to monitor and regulate banks. Without this oversight, its role as a lender of last resort becomes less effective, suggesting bank regulation is crucial to the Fed's mission.