The hottest Polling Substack posts right now

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Top U.S. Politics Topics

Polls vs Early Voting: the real data is bullish for Trump

The Dossier • 391 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Voting Campaigns Media
  1. Polls can be misleading and don't always reflect the true situation. What's more important is the actual voter turnout.
  2. Republican voters are showing strong motivation and participation in early voting. This could be a good sign for Trump's campaign.
  3. The media often pushes narratives that may not align with the reality of voter enthusiasm. It's key to focus on the numbers rather than just headlines.

Juggling for High Stakes, Nate Silver Expertly Keeps All the Balls in the Air

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 253 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Political Analysis Demographics Campaign strategies
  1. Nate Silver analyzes the 2024 presidential polls by juggling different polls and what they say about the voters. He's trying to figure out whether the surprising results are due to model errors or actual changes in voter behavior.
  2. He believes that some pollsters may be hesitant to share results that seem too far from expected outcomes, leading to overly tight poll results. This herding effect makes it hard to know what's really going on in the electorate.
  3. Silver highlights the conflict between different polls, like Selzer's showing a lead for Harris in Iowa and Siena's favoring Trump in Arizona. If both polls are correct, it could suggest big shifts in voter preferences since past elections.
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Once More Telling People That They Should Take Nate Silver for Their Guru on Questions in His Lane

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 222 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Public Opinion Political Analysis Media influence
  1. Nate Silver is really good at understanding statistics and probabilities, so it's smart to listen to him when it comes to polls and predictions about elections.
  2. Billionaires don't know more about elections than anyone else; they often act based on their own interests and fears, not on secret insights.
  3. When looking at elections, focus on the polls instead of billionaires' actions. Polls can give us a clearer picture of what might happen, even if they're not perfect.

Why You Should Ignore All the Polls

The Ruffian • 227 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Campaigns Political Analysis Voter Behavior
  1. Polls don't really tell you what you need to know about elections. They can be misleading and don't account for many factors.
  2. When you feel tempted to constantly check election updates, try doing something else instead. Activities like walking or listening to music can make you feel better.
  3. No matter how informed you think you are, you can't predict the outcome of elections. It's better to accept uncertainty than stress about it.

USA & NATO responsible for Ukraine war, German & French public say in poll

Geopolitical Economy Report • 1096 implied HN points • 10 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Polling International relations
  1. Most people in Germany and France blame the United States or NATO for the war in Ukraine, according to a survey by anti-Putin activists.
  2. The public opinion may not significantly affect government policies, as seen by Germany's Foreign Minister's statement about supporting Ukraine despite public opinion.
  3. Results from the polls show that many Europeans perceive the conflict in Ukraine not just as Kiev versus Moscow but as a larger proxy war involving NATO and the US against Russia.

ZOE balls

Logging the World • 398 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
🔬 Science Polling Trends Covid data
  1. Opinion polling can be challenging due to issues with representativeness, such as demographic bias and sampling errors.
  2. Trends in polling data can be stable over time, and short-term fluctuations may not always indicate significant changes.
  3. Subsamples in polling data can lead to wider margins of error and may not always provide accurate insights, caution is advised when interpreting this data.

Donald Trump Will Lose in So Many Ways in 2024

Drezner’s World • 864 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Polling Republican party General election
  1. The NYT/Siena poll shows that Donald Trump is leading the GOP race by a significant margin.
  2. There is a significant portion of Republican voters who do not support Trump and prefer other candidates.
  3. Despite his strong base, Trump may struggle to win against a conventional rival and appeal to moderate voters in 2024.

Media malpractice by The Washington Post and ABC News

The Signorile Report • 1019 implied HN points • 25 Sep 23
📰 News Media Polling Journalism Criticism Election
  1. The Washington Post and ABC News published a flawed poll showing Trump leading Biden by 10 points, which was widely criticized and eventually disappeared from the Post homepage.
  2. Media organizations have a responsibility to provide accurate and reliable information, especially when conducting polls in a climate of misinformation and conspiracy theories.
  3. The methodology flaws in the poll, such as an unusual mix of respondents and misaligned results compared to other polls, highlighted the media malpractice in presenting and defending problematic data.

Election 2024: The Day Before

The Reactionary • 82 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Political parties Voter Turnout Campaign strategies
  1. Republicans are feeling more confident going into the 2024 election, especially with recent polling showing Trump gaining ground in key swing states. The mood has shifted significantly in the last couple of months.
  2. Early voting results indicate that Republicans have better turnout compared to Democrats, especially in states like Nevada and Pennsylvania. This may suggest a problem with Democrat enthusiasm compared to the previous election.
  3. In several swing states, urban and female voter turnout is down compared to 2020, while rural turnout is up for Republicans. This shift could impact the overall election results.

Election Update #12: Is the Democratic Enthusiasm Advantage Already Showing Up?

Phillips’s Newsletter • 83 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Turnout Political trends Polling Demographics
  1. Many people have already voted, showing a lot of early engagement. This trend is higher compared to most past elections, but still lower than during the pandemic in 2020.
  2. Women are leading in turnout, especially in key swing states. Their participation could play a big role in this election's outcome.
  3. The current election feels more like recent years (2022) than the previous presidential elections (2016, 2020). Polling predictions may not fully capture this shift in voter sentiment.

Election Update #11: The race hasn't "narrowed"

Phillips’s Newsletter • 80 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Data Analysis Political trends Campaigns
  1. Trump's support may be increasing, or Harris is holding her lead steady. It's not clear which one is happening right now.
  2. Polls show that despite some recent changes, Harris's overall lead is still solid according to longer-term trends.
  3. Even though the numbers seem to be tightening, this election still has one of the most stable polling environments in US history.

Your guide to watching the US election

Comment is Freed • 63 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Voting Political Analysis
  1. Polls are hard to trust this election because they might be missing certain groups of voters. Some people who usually don’t vote are expected to show up but are less likely to answer polls.
  2. Different states have different rules for counting votes, which can make it tricky to know the results quickly. Some states can count early votes before polls close, while others cannot.
  3. US exit polls are often not very helpful for predicting results. Unlike the UK, they don’t provide clear insight into voting intentions and motivations.

The Polling Cave

Thinking about... • 180 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Media Public Opinion Political Behavior
  1. Polls can create a false sense of reality during elections. They focus mainly on candidates instead of the important policies that affect our lives.
  2. The media often exaggerates the significance of polls, making us feel anxious about close races. In reality, polls just indicate possibilities, not certainties.
  3. It's important to engage with the real world and vote, rather than getting stuck in the 'polling cave.' Our actions can lead to meaningful change outside of the shadows created by polls.

Election Update #10 Harris Bounces Back

Phillips’s Newsletter • 75 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Media Political strategy Public Opinion
  1. Recently, there's been a boost in confidence about Harris' campaign, even though it might not be fully backed by solid evidence.
  2. It's important to be aware of your media bubble. It can shape what stories you see and make you believe things that might not be true.
  3. Trusting only the sources that confirm what you want to believe can lead to being misled, so it's good to check various viewpoints.

Biden isn't losing because of bad economic vibes

Silver Bulletin • 345 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Polling
  1. Biden's low approval ratings are not solely due to negative economic sentiments, but they could be influenced by consumer perceptions.
  2. There is a divergence in consumer confidence surveys which impacts how people view the economy and subsequently rate Biden's performance.
  3. Concerns about Biden's age and fitness for office are significant factors affecting voter perception, potentially more than economic factors.

160 million Americans are eligible to be president. How did we end up with these two dudes again?

Silver Bulletin • 358 implied HN points • 06 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Polling Demographics
  1. 160 million Americans are eligible to be president, yet we have the same candidates running again.
  2. Trump and Biden are not very popular, with polls showing significant differences when matched against unnamed candidates.
  3. Younger voters seem less interested in Biden, especially due to concerns about his age.

People Should Not Prioritize What They Think Are "Vibes" Over Actual Data: The Economic Situation Really Is—Relative to All Other Years since 2000—Excellent

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 215 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Media Polling Partisanship Data Analysis
  1. Don't prioritize 'vibes' over actual data - the economy is actually excellent compared to past years.
  2. Partisanship influences perceptions of the economy - Democrats more optimistic than Republicans.
  3. Journalists sometimes emphasize negative news, even when data shows a positive economic situation.

RFK Jr. probably won't hurt Biden. He might even help him.

Silver Bulletin • 238 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Polling
  1. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s potential third-party run may not necessarily harm President Biden, and could even benefit him.
  2. Historically, third-party bids have had varied impacts and are not always spoilers in elections.
  3. Polls suggest that Trump supporters view Kennedy more favorably, and his issue positions may not align well with the college-educated Democratic base.

It's gonna be a very long and exceptionally tedious road to November 2024

Silver Bulletin • 227 implied HN points • 08 Sep 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Polling Campaign Partisanship Presidential
  1. Stay sane during the 2024 election by either ignoring the race or pacing yourself.
  2. It's too early to get caught up in polling details right now.
  3. The main things to know about the current election race are Biden, Trump, or someone else could win, and the odds don't change significantly day to day.

Links for February 19-25, 2023 | Americans in most states support legal abortions; New graphs for showing polling uncertainty at PBS; And evidence of economic voting from the 1790s

G. Elliott Morris's Newsletter • 138 implied HN points • 25 Feb 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Abortion Polling Presidential elections
  1. Majority of Americans, including 40% of Republicans, support legal abortions
  2. Americans prefer government compromise over gridlock, especially regarding debt-ceiling decisions
  3. Historical evidence shows voters have historically punished presidents for poor economic performance

Artificial intelligence and "big data" cannot replace public opinion polls | #213 - April 10, 2023

G. Elliott Morris's Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 10 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Public Opinion Data science Political Analysis Social Trends
  1. Artificial intelligence and big data cannot fully replace public opinion polls, as they rely on polls for calibration and may not be as reliable for all groups.
  2. Changes in polling methods, like switching from phone to online surveys, can impact results, highlighting the importance of consistency over time.
  3. Studies show genuine change in attitudes, like increasing racial liberalism, but also caution against biases affecting survey responses.

Record Breakers

Comment is Freed • 56 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Conservatives
  1. The recent by-elections have shown significant swings from Conservatives to Labour, with record-breaking numbers indicating a tough time for the Conservatives.
  2. The rise of the Reform party is impacting the Conservatives, pulling away voters who are dissatisfied with the government but hesitant to support traditional mainstream parties.
  3. Green Party votes are proving to be more resilient and less susceptible to being squeezed by other center-left parties, potentially affecting Labour in the long run.

2/3rds of Nicaraguans support leftist Sandinista Front: Poll debunks 'dictatorship' lie

Geopolitical Economy Report • 239 implied HN points • 04 Sep 21
🌍 World Politics Polling Parties Elections Democracy Sovereignty
  1. Around 2/3 of Nicaraguans support the leftist Sandinista Front, showing strong backing for the ruling government and President Daniel Ortega.
  2. Polls debunk the Western narrative of Nicaragua being a 'dictatorship,' with strong public confidence in the Sandinista government's respect for human rights and civil liberties.
  3. Nicaraguans display high levels of voter enthusiasm and satisfaction with democracy, supporting progressive government policies such as subsidies for housing, healthcare, and education.

Why are Hispanics Mobilizing Around Trump?

Who is Robert Malone • 22 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Immigration Polling Border Democrats
  1. Hispanic Americans are mobilizing around Trump due to issues like border security and the belief he can fix the economy.
  2. Legal Hispanic immigrants feel frustrated by the US government prioritizing illegal immigrants with resources and benefits.
  3. Recent polling shows a significant shift in Hispanic voter support towards Trump, signaling a potential change in the 2024 election.

#6 Regime Change: new data shows Trump beating Biden and beating AOC & Kamala more easily - plus DeSantis matchups

Dominic Cummings substack • 12 implied HN points • 17 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Data Analysis Technology Media
  1. New data shows Trump beating Biden and AOC & Kamala more easily
  2. Research conducted for the 2024 Presidential campaign focused on crucial issues like cost of living, health, and crime
  3. Efforts were made to ensure an accurate sample of low-education, low-trust voters to avoid polling errors

10 WAYS TO COVER/WATCH/ANALYZE THE IOWA CAUCUSES LIKE AN *AMATEUR*

Wide World of News • 0 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Analysis Campaign Strategy Media Coverage Presidential Race Polling
  1. Don't underestimate the impact of the Iowa Poll on generating or killing campaign momentum.
  2. Be cautious about drawing conclusions from live cable news coverage of select caucuses.
  3. Pay attention to the semiotic significance of where candidates deliver speeches and how well they are covered.