The hottest Polling Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

The Silver Bulletin Year in Review

Silver Bulletin • 336 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. The newsletter experienced a post-election normalization: overall subscriptions rose about 12% but paid subscribers fell roughly 27%, with realized revenue down less (around 17%) while median post readership stayed strong.
  2. The team is hiring an editor to raise the baseline output while keeping quality high, and plans to diversify beyond politics and sports by launching new forecasting products like a generic ballot, COOPER for college basketball, and continued work on ELWAY/QBERT.
  3. The editorial approach centers on data-driven forecasting and testable predictions, producing notable hits and some misses, and the plan is to be more forward-looking and varied in 2026.

SBSQ #28: Was Tim Walz gonna lose?

Silver Bulletin • 288 implied HN points • 05 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Tim Walz abruptly ended his bid for a third term amid a public benefits fraud scandal.
  2. The U.S. operation that captured Venezuela’s president probably won’t shift domestic politics much, since voters usually react to foreign actions only when Americans are directly attacked or many troops are deployed.
  3. Polling that shows the action as unpopular should be treated cautiously, and Democrats’ reluctance to criticize may reflect old fears of appearing weak rather than a clear electoral danger.

Election Update 3: Self-Injury Watch On

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 5628 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Watching political TV can feel overwhelming and stressful for many people. It often highlights negative news and can be quite draining.
  2. Election updates show a mix of moods, with both excitement and worry among different voter groups. The shifting results lead to a lot of anxiety and chatter on social media.
  3. Different states are reporting varied results, creating a sense of urgency and unpredictability during election nights. People are looking for any signs of good news amidst the tensions.
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Does The US Public Have A Different Idea Of What Makes America "Great"?

Phillips’s Newsletter • 155 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Most Americans did not rally behind the Venezuela intervention, with only about 30–40% approving, making it unusually unpopular even after a seemingly successful operation.
  2. Polls show broad skepticism and cross‑party opposition to the U.S. taking control of another country’s government, and many Americans prefer that Venezuelans decide their own future.
  3. The reaction suggests a possible disconnect between using force as a sign of national greatness and the public’s idea of greatness, which leans toward limits on intervention and respect for self‑determination.

How To Do Politics When Nobody Knows Anything

The Ruffian • 153 implied HN points • 20 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Polling
  1. Elections are far more unpredictable because party systems have fragmented and voters use tactical and cross‑bloc voting, so small shifts can decide many seats.
  2. Big forces — geopolitics, new media and technological and economic disruption — are making political outcomes change faster, producing rapid rises and collapses of leaders and parties.
  3. Many politicians still use old instincts that no longer fit this chaotic moment, so success now requires new strategies built for radical uncertainty.

What's the Greens' ceiling?

Comment is Freed • 64 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Polling
  1. The Greens doubled their support in 2025 from about 8% to roughly 16%, bringing them close to Labour nationally and even ahead in places like Wales.
  2. The UK’s first-past-the-post system combined with multi-party bloc politics means being first in your bloc makes you the default tactical choice. That's why Reform surged and why the Greens are now trying to become the main option for left-leaning voters.
  3. The Greens’ ability to climb into the mid-20s hinges on converting potential supporters who currently avoid ‘wasting’ a vote. That will require leadership policy shifts to broaden appeal and also depends on whether Labour changes strategy to stop the bleed.

Andrew Cuomo’s last stand

Silver Bulletin • 247 implied HN points • 04 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Zohran Mamdani won the New York City mayoral race, which highlights the struggles of Andrew Cuomo as a candidate. Voters seemed to favor Mamdani over Cuomo and a weaker opponent, Curtis Sliwa.
  2. Cuomo's negative approval ratings and the lack of positive support made it hard for him to gain traction in the election. Many voters had a clear preference against him.
  3. Mamdani ran a successful campaign focused on positivity, while Cuomo's approach relied on attacking his opponent rather than building his own image. This difference in strategy likely impacted their voter appeal.

How popular is Elon Musk?

Silver Bulletin • 751 implied HN points • 07 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Elon Musk's popularity has decreased significantly, with only 36.7% of Americans viewing him favorably. Most people, about 55%, have an unfavorable opinion of him.
  2. Musk is trying to create a third party called the America Party, but many believe it won't succeed nationally. He plans to target a few Senate and House seats instead.
  3. Political tensions, especially with Donald Trump, are impacting Musk's public perception. His involvement in politics may be seen as a liability for him and his connections.

SBSQ #26: Do prediction markets make polls useless?

Silver Bulletin • 225 implied HN points • 09 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Prediction markets are gaining attention and might change how media reports on politics. They could potentially replace traditional polls, but the impact isn't clear yet.
  2. While prediction markets can provide insights, they may not fully replace the value of polls. Polls offer different kinds of data that prediction markets don't always capture.
  3. Doing creative work is important, even if it takes a long time and is challenging. It helps people learn and grow, and keeps the mind active and engaged over time.

BREAKING: New MAHA National Health Survey Released

Who is Robert Malone • 12 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. A clear majority of likely voters back the Make America Healthy Again and America First agendas and favor specific reforms like cutting the CDC childhood vaccine schedule and ending COVID vaccine manufacturer immunity.
  2. Support for these health and sovereignty reforms cuts across age and racial groups—younger voters and many minority voters show particularly strong approval—so backing isn’t limited to one party.
  3. Approval for the MAHA agenda is higher than for individual leaders: Trump and RFK Jr. have more polarized, roughly even job ratings, suggesting policy framing matters more than personality.

Eric Adams to Andrew Cuomo: ‘Get Out of the Race’

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 690 implied HN points • 08 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Eric Adams believes Andrew Cuomo should drop out of the mayoral race to help New York City. He thinks it's the right move, especially since both are competing for similar voters.
  2. Adams sees Cuomo as his main rival despite other candidates emerging in the election. He worries that if they both stay in, they could split the moderate vote and help the socialist candidate, Zohran Mamdani.
  3. Adams has started attacking Mamdani, calling him misleading and trying to stop his rise in popularity. He feels confident he can turn the tide in the election against Mamdani.

ATW Livestream Tonight at 8 PM ET/7 PM CT

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 2276 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Live stream discussing Election Day happens tonight at 8 PM ET/7 PM CT. It's a chance to hear predictions and polls.
  2. The mood seems heavy as it's described as 'the end of an era' with Election Day approaching. Regardless of the result, anxiety is expected to continue.
  3. Fans of current events can look forward to lively discussions and insights during the live stream, making it an engaging watch.

Transcript - America This Week, June 6, 2026: "The War Party that Can't Talk to Men"

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 803 implied HN points • 07 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. A recent study showed that many men feel disconnected from the Democratic Party, especially young men of color. The party spent a lot of money trying to figure out why they struggle to connect with men.
  2. The study found that many men want traditional values, like being strong providers, while Democrats tend to focus on empathy and sensitivity. This disconnect might be part of why men don’t feel represented.
  3. Trying to treat men as a defined group might not be the right approach. Many men just see themselves as people, not just as men, and focusing too much on their gender identity could miss the bigger picture.

THE MIDTERMS WILL NOT BE KIND TO THE REPUBLICANS

Seymour Hersh • 38 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Internal polling suggests Republicans face big losses and Democrats are likely to win back the House.
  2. Several Senate races are competitive and Democrats have strong chances in multiple states, putting the GOP's slim majority at risk.
  3. Backlash against hardline immigration enforcement, protests over ICE tactics, and unmet promises on the economy and foreign policy are weakening the GOP's political standing.

USA & NATO responsible for Ukraine war, German & French public say in poll

Geopolitical Economy Report • 1096 implied HN points • 10 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Polling
  1. Most people in Germany and France blame the United States or NATO for the war in Ukraine, according to a survey by anti-Putin activists.
  2. The public opinion may not significantly affect government policies, as seen by Germany's Foreign Minister's statement about supporting Ukraine despite public opinion.
  3. Results from the polls show that many Europeans perceive the conflict in Ukraine not just as Kiev versus Moscow but as a larger proxy war involving NATO and the US against Russia.

Are the Polls too Close to Be Trusted?

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1755 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Polls can often show very similar results, especially in tight races. This might indicate that pollsters are playing it safe and not reporting outlier results.
  2. There is a concern called 'herding' where polling companies avoid reporting unusual findings to not seem wrong. This can lead to less information available to the public.
  3. The lack of variation in polls today is unusual and might mean real voter sentiment is being missed, setting the stage for a surprise outcome in elections.

A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong

Silver Bulletin • 1606 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. A new poll in Iowa shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump, which is surprising given recent trends favoring Trump. This could mean a shift in political dynamics in the state.
  2. Pollster Ann Selzer is known for her accurate predictions, but this bold claim may not hold up given the statistical uncertainties involved. The margin of error could sway the actual results significantly.
  3. Different polls are showing varying results, which highlights the uncertainty and complexity of polling in elections. Some polls are seen as more reliable than others, making it hard to know which to trust.

ZOE balls

Logging the World • 398 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
🔬 Science Polling
  1. Opinion polling can be challenging due to issues with representativeness, such as demographic bias and sampling errors.
  2. Trends in polling data can be stable over time, and short-term fluctuations may not always indicate significant changes.
  3. Subsamples in polling data can lead to wider margins of error and may not always provide accurate insights, caution is advised when interpreting this data.

Media malpractice by The Washington Post and ABC News

The Signorile Report • 1019 implied HN points • 25 Sep 23
📰 News Polling
  1. The Washington Post and ABC News published a flawed poll showing Trump leading Biden by 10 points, which was widely criticized and eventually disappeared from the Post homepage.
  2. Media organizations have a responsibility to provide accurate and reliable information, especially when conducting polls in a climate of misinformation and conspiracy theories.
  3. The methodology flaws in the poll, such as an unusual mix of respondents and misaligned results compared to other polls, highlighted the media malpractice in presenting and defending problematic data.

Silver Bulletin 2024 election night coverage

Silver Bulletin • 1380 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. It's important to keep track of election night numbers for candidates like Trump and Harris. Knowing the latest results helps us understand how the election is going.
  2. You can join a chat during election night to discuss the results with others. It's a good way to share thoughts and hear different perspectives.
  3. This information is aimed at paid subscribers, so it's exclusive content for those who support the publication. Being a paid member allows for access to more in-depth analysis.

How Silver Bulletin calculates our polling averages

Silver Bulletin • 28 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. They include almost every professional poll but exclude known fake surveys, hobbyist/DIY polls, polls that use MRP-style smoothing, and polls with leading questions, while internal or campaign polls are allowed if they meet standards.
  2. Each poll is weighted by the pollster’s rating, sample size (with diminishing returns), and recency, and the model caps a firm’s influence so one pollster can’t flood the average; the final averages are produced with local polynomial regression tuned to avoid over- or under-smoothing.
  3. The averages are adjusted for persistent "house effects" through an iterative process (with a small partisan prior applied to explicitly partisan polls), and the generic ballot is translated into state benchmarks using a partisan-lean score combined with a state-specific "elasticity" that measures how swingy each state is.

Six lessons from the 2024 election

Comment is Freed • 77 implied HN points • 03 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Polling
  1. Campaign drama and memorable moments are often overvalued and don’t usually shift polls or decide elections. Polls are often stable for long periods, so single events rarely change the outcome.
  2. When votes do move, it’s frequently because of issue-driven polarization (like Brexit) rather than a leader suddenly winning new supporters, so apparent gains may not be a lasting realignment. Parties risk mismatch if their policies don’t fit the new voters they attract.
  3. Avoiding election myths requires careful, data-driven analysis and new thinking about a more fragmented electorate; media and campaign strategies should adapt to changes in polling and coverage.

Hopium comes at a high price

Silver Bulletin • 1050 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Polls showed mixed results, but overall, they were generally accurate in predicting the election outcome. This means people shouldn't overreact to polling numbers, no matter how close the elections get.
  2. Many Democrats believed in a winning narrative that didn't match the polling data. This led to a false sense of security about their candidates' chances.
  3. Voter concerns about issues like inflation, immigration, and candidate age were often ignored by Democratic leaders, which contributed to their electoral struggles. Listening to these concerns is important for future success.

Uninformed Confusion Takes an Early Lead in the '28 Democratic Primary

I Might Be Wrong • 7 implied HN points • 19 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Current polls and market odds show different people leading the 2028 Democratic primary, but those snapshots are noisy and basically meaningless this far out.
  2. Primary races are extremely volatile: presumed frontrunners often collapse, pundit-loved late entrants usually flame out, and campaigns written off as dead can suddenly rebound.
  3. Early states like Iowa and New Hampshire have outsized, quirky effects on momentum (New Hampshire especially likes to buck Iowa), so watch them but don’t overreact — it’s still too early to pick a winner.

The model exactly predicted the most likely election map

Silver Bulletin • 790 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. The election model predicted the map based on 80,000 simulations, accurately reflecting the most common outcome, though some surprises were noted.
  2. Polling errors tend to be similar across states, meaning if Trump performed poorly in one swing state, he likely did in others, leading to a statistically predictable outcome.
  3. Beneath the overall results, some deep blue states showed unexpected weakness for the Democrats, while some traditionally red states are trending more blue, indicating shifting voter patterns.

Betting Markets

Points And Figures • 746 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Betting markets can predict election outcomes more accurately than polls. They quickly adjust based on new information, making them reliable for forecasting.
  2. Unlike traditional markets, prediction markets are less likely to be manipulated. Studies show attempts to influence them usually don't succeed, keeping the forecasts steady.
  3. Understanding how the market works is key. It gathers and shares information in a way that motivates accuracy, unlike traditional polling methods that can miss the mark.

The polls are close, but that doesn’t mean the results will be

Silver Bulletin • 666 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Polls show a very tight race, but this doesn't guarantee a close election outcome. Both candidates could end up winning by a larger margin than the polls suggest.
  2. Polling errors can happen in either direction, making the election unpredictable. Even a small error could lead to a surprising result on election day.
  3. The focus should be on battleground states, as those will ultimately determine the winner regardless of national polls. The voting patterns in these key areas could lead to differing results from the national poll averages.

Silver Bulletin pollster ratings, 2025 update

Silver Bulletin • 405 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. The latest pollster ratings show which pollsters are most accurate and transparent based on their past performances. This helps understand which ones might do well in future elections.
  2. New data added to the ratings includes results from the 2024 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections. Lots of new polls have shifted some ratings, but the top pollsters generally stayed the same.
  3. They measure pollster accuracy using different ratings and scores that consider factors like bias toward political parties and how close their predictions were to actual results.

Against Polling

Unpopular Front • 114 implied HN points • 06 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Polling can be misleading and often doesn't reflect the true feelings of people. People may give a simple answer without understanding the full impact of the questions.
  2. Successful politicians connect with people through storytelling and imagery rather than just data. Using emotional appeal can lead to more authentic connections.
  3. Relying too heavily on polling can make politicians forget that public opinions are complex and change over time. Good leaders need to understand these changes and inspire their audience.

Our best and worst takes of 2024

Silver Bulletin • 386 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. In 2024, a lot of focus was on the election, which made it hard to cover other topics. It's important to find a balance between major events and a wider range of issues.
  2. Some predictions made during the year were spot-on, especially about political trends and voter behavior. This shows the importance of analyzing data carefully.
  3. Not every post or opinion held up well over time. It's a good reminder that things change, and it's okay to revisit and reflect on past takes.

How did the polls do in 2024? It’s complicated.

Silver Bulletin • 312 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling
  1. Polls in 2024 had a lower average error than in previous years, which shows improvement in their accuracy. However, most polls underestimated Republican candidates, particularly Trump.
  2. There was a consistent bias in polls, leaning towards Democrats over the past three elections. This trend is concerning as it suggests a systematic issue with polling methods.
  3. Polling accuracy in calling election winners was lower in 2024 compared to past years. Close races should be seen as uncertain, and small leads in polls don't mean much.