The hottest Voter Behavior Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

When the Edge Lords Lead

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1838 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. The people leading Trump's events tend to be edgy and enjoy making shocking jokes, which can backfire with voters. They don’t seem to recognize how their humor might upset others.
  2. Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made a joke that offended many, and his humor reflects how tone-deaf these leaders are to wider voter opinions. This can be risky for Trump’s campaign.
  3. As the election approaches, every mistake could sway undecided voters, so it's crucial for campaigns to focus on appealing to all potential supporters, not just their base.

Announcing My New Column in The Washington Post

Thinking in Bets • 138 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Annie Duke is starting a new opinion column in The Washington Post, focusing on risk and decision-making. She'll share insights on how we interpret important data.
  2. The column will discuss the misleading nature of data interpretation, particularly regarding Black voters' support in elections. Duke argues that misinterpretations can be more harmful than misinformation.
  3. Annie's background as a decision scientist and former poker player helps her analyze how people make choices, which she'll explore in her writing.

Reality Check

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2537 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Polling shows a tight race, which might favor Trump since he's historically done well in similar situations. Key voters who are likely to turn out are showing signs they might back him.
  2. Democrats, especially Kamala Harris, are facing issues with voter turnout and are seen as frustrated. Trump, on the other hand, appears to be energized and is campaigning actively in swing states.
  3. Many Americans feel dissatisfied with their current situation, and they trust Republicans more on major issues like the economy and crime. This shift in sentiment could impact the election results.

Morning Reads: Biden, Harris, Trump, and More in the Political Mix

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Biden may actually be the best candidate we've had, as some articles suggest he knows how to handle the country's problems well.
  2. Kamala Harris needs to change her approach to reach non-college-educated white voters better, especially in key swing states.
  3. There are signs that some middle-class Black voters are shifting their support to the right, which could change the voting landscape.

Here's What I'm Reading Tonight on the Election

COVID Reason • 515 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Kamala Harris is facing tough questions about her leadership and actions, which could affect how voters see her as a potential leader. People are starting to doubt her ability to handle future challenges.
  2. There are mixed feelings among Democrats about the upcoming elections; some are feeling hopeful while others are anxious about their chances against Trump. It's a reminder that anything can happen in politics.
  3. The importance of chance in elections is highlighted, suggesting that the outcome might sometimes depend on luck rather than just strategies and campaigning. It's an interesting thought about how unpredictable politics can be.
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Will the Iran War Turn Trump’s Base Against Him?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 315 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. The MAGA movement is split between anti-war non‑interventionists and interventionists who are fighting over the GOP’s future.
  2. Many of Trump’s dovish supporters feel torn between their anti‑war principles and loyalty to him, so they often grumble but stick with him after limited or successful strikes.
  3. GOP voters and lawmakers have largely rallied behind Trump while the Iran campaign is going well, even though some in his base see the strikes as a betrayal.

Misunderstanding Trump Voters

Disaffected Newsletter • 4436 implied HN points • 27 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Not all Trump voters are fans of his personality; some vote for him despite it. They have serious concerns about the current political climate and feel voting for Trump is their best option.
  2. There are former Democrats who now support Trump because they believe the Democratic agenda is harmful to the country. They’re not swayed by Trump's style but by the policies they disagree with.
  3. Critics like McWhorter may misjudge Trump voters by thinking they are blindly loyal. There's a call for a deeper understanding of their motivations beyond just Trump's persona.

A No Fear Election for Business

Dana Blankenhorn: Facing the Future • 79 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. The stock market is calm before the upcoming election, even though both candidates are playing on people's fears. It's interesting that business seems more relaxed than voters.
  2. The most likely outcome is a Kamala Harris win with a Republican-controlled Senate, which could lead to a stalemate that won't shake up the markets much. Businesses don't like uncertainty, and a stalemate is somewhat stable.
  3. Even if the Democrats win big, major changes are unlikely. Harris would need to work with Congress, and markets think she may not negotiate as effectively as Biden did. So, if business isn't worried, maybe the general public shouldn't be either.

They Voted for Trump—and They’re Appalled by ICE

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 417 implied HN points • 01 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Some voters supported a tough stance on immigration but are shocked by large-scale deportations and aggressive ICE tactics, which they see as unconstitutional.
  2. Individual supporters, including immigrants who voted for border security, are publicly protesting these enforcement methods, showing personal disillusionment.
  3. There’s a gap between promises of stronger border control and the real-world methods used, prompting unexpected backlash from the very voters who prioritized the issue.

Trump’s Voters Will Back an Iran Strike

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 241 implied HN points • 05 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. MAGA leaders push a noninterventionist line, but many of their voters don't actually share that view.
  2. Recent polls show large support among Trump voters for military action: about half would back action in Iran, 61% of 'MAGA Republicans' favored intervention there, and 65% supported military action in at least one country.
  3. American attitudes toward foreign intervention shift with events, so the political right can be isolationist at times and interventionist at others, surprising its ideologues.

Wittman Versus the Last 25 Years of American Democracy

Bet On It • 140 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. An influential academic challenge shifted debate from standard public-choice critiques to focusing on voter irrationality and the idea of "rational irrationality."
  2. Optimism about democratic capitalism was strong in the mid-1990s, but events in the 21st century have made the claim that democracy reliably manages markets and government much harder to defend.
  3. Even long-time defenders of democratic efficiency are now rethinking their views, with recent conversations showing growing disillusionment about how well American democracy works.

The Jewish Parents Who Raised Mamdani Voters

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 677 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Zohran Mamdani won New York City's mayoral race, creating a historic and contentious political moment.
  2. His victory has deepened generational and ideological splits in families—especially Jewish households—where debates over Zionism and accusations of antisemitism have become personal.
  3. Young supporters feel triumphant and validated for their activism, even as many continue to clash with parents and relatives at the dinner table about politics.

Election Update 6: The Puckering

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 7102 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Democrats are feeling anxious as key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin show Trump leading. It's crucial for Harris to win all three to take the presidency.
  2. Many Democrats may have overlooked voter sentiments, which can lead to big consequences. There's a sense that the Democratic Party needs to reconnect with American voters.
  3. This election isn't just about who wins but also reflects broader public opinions on political messaging. The results could spark major changes in media and party leadership.

Why Everyone Hates the Democrats

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1267 implied HN points • 05 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Democrats are facing a significant image problem, with approval ratings at historic lows compared to Republicans. Many Americans simply don't trust the Democratic Party right now.
  2. Instead of just policy issues, Democrats are losing support because they aren't seen as strongly opposing Donald Trump and his influence. This makes it harder for them to gain back trust.
  3. Even within their own party, Democratic leaders are facing dissatisfaction, especially among left-leaning voters. Many of these voters feel unhappy with how the party is handling its direction.

Are poker players liberal or conservative?

Silver Bulletin • 325 implied HN points • 26 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Poker players tend to be anti-establishment and often dislike politics until it threatens their way of life. They usually keep their political views private but may open up in informal settings.
  2. While there are both conservative and liberal individual poker players, the community as a whole doesn't show strong political engagement. Their donations to political candidates are generally low and mostly tactical.
  3. Poker players exhibit unique characteristics that don't fully align with traditional political groups. They're often entrepreneurial, risk-takers, and value independence, but also tend to be principled, seeking fairness in politics.

Public Choice links, 11/13/2025

In My Tribe • 318 implied HN points • 13 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Trade protectionism in America is seen as central planning dressed up as economic nationalism. While manufacturing output has grown, employment in factories has declined.
  2. There’s a push for better state capacity in government, but some argue it needs to focus on doing fewer things well rather than expanding into more areas.
  3. Voters often make poor choices about policies. Scholars understand what's inefficient, but there’s a challenge in communicating that knowledge to the public.

We Are Losers

Singal-Minded • 3790 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. The anti-Trump movement is not working as it should; many think it needs a complete overhaul. People involved have gotten too caught up in their own beliefs and are not effectively addressing voters' real concerns.
  2. Despite being passionate against Trump, many in this movement are losing sight of what truly matters to average voters. They may feel strongly about their views, but those feelings are not resonating with most Americans.
  3. Instead of focusing on who to blame for their failures, the anti-Trump movement should rethink their approach. They need to attract more realistic and relatable voices to have a better chance at winning in the future.

Is Political Advertising Obsolete?

The Liberal Patriot • 943 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Political advertising may not be as effective as believed, with many Americans tuning out or not being influenced by ads.
  2. Trust is essential in communication, and political ads struggle to gain trust from the public compared to corporate advertisements.
  3. The network effect, where people trust information from close contacts, is more influential in political persuasion than traditional advertising.

Chartbook 332 The radicalization of Trump's GOP and the realignment of the American electorate.

Chartbook • 2517 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Trump's return to power shows how voters are upset with the current leaders, wanting change after COVID and inflation. Many incumbents around the world have struggled recently, making his win less surprising.
  2. The political landscape in America is shifting, with Trump appealing more to working-class voters while wealthier, college-educated individuals are increasingly voting for Democrats. This shift highlights growing divides between different social and economic groups.
  3. Despite emphasizing issues like inequality and social justice, Democrats are losing touch with less affluent voters who are facing economic struggles. Ironically, many lower-income Americans who supported Trump might be hurt by his policies.

Has the Democratic Tea Party Arrived?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 153 implied HN points • 08 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. A faction of energized progressives is pushing the Democratic Party away from its moderate, establishment leaders and favoring candidates who refuse to compromise.
  2. Primary fights in places like Maine and Texas could show whether this movement becomes the party’s main direction.
  3. There’s a real risk that base-pleasing candidates who alienate moderates will win primaries but struggle or lose in general elections.

Election Countdown: The Day After.

Breaking the News • 2347 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Voters had several years to see Donald Trump's actions and behavior clearly, and they still chose him again. This shows a significant change in how the public views him compared to past elections.
  2. Kamala Harris ran a strong campaign with few mistakes, while Trump had a rocky one. Despite this, the election outcome favored Trump, which highlights a surprising shift in voter priorities.
  3. Two experts who believed Americans would make a rational choice were proven wrong. This suggests that the election results reflect a deeper understanding of current American values and beliefs.

Equity Meme, Dominance Disputes, Voter Preferences

Rob Henderson's Newsletter • 965 implied HN points • 27 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Alpha male chimpanzees can become too aggressive, leading lower-ranking males to team up against them. In extreme cases, they might even kill the dominant male.
  2. In the last century, men have grown much taller and stronger than women, possibly because women prefer taller, more muscular men.
  3. Voter preferences have changed, with white voters remaining stable in their choices while nonwhite voters have increasingly leaned towards the Republican party.

No better room

benn.substack • 1815 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. The team had multiple backup plans ready for the election night, but they ended up not needing them at all because the outcome was clear very quickly. This shows how sometimes, despite all the preparation, things can turn out differently than expected.
  2. Even though they lost the election, the atmosphere in the room was charged with intensity and urgency as they worked together to process data. The experience was thrilling, highlighting the importance of being actively involved even when facing tough situations.
  3. The hardworking people behind the scenes may not get recognition for their efforts after a loss, but their commitment and dedication are valuable. They might be unnoticed now, but their hard work is still important for future efforts.

Bottom-half folks voted for Trump because they’re lonely

Sex and the State • 50 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Loneliness and weak family formation are concentrated among people with lower income and education, and these social breakdowns help explain much of bottom-half support for Trump.
  2. Working-class voters feel fear, pain, and distrust because they see downward mobility and unstable families, which pushes them toward populist, anti-elite politics.
  3. To win these voters back, liberals should focus on rebuilding social connections and opportunities for stable, upwardly mobile families, since fixing loneliness (as well as poverty) matters more than just handing out more welfare.

Are the Polls too Close to Be Trusted?

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1755 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Polls can often show very similar results, especially in tight races. This might indicate that pollsters are playing it safe and not reporting outlier results.
  2. There is a concern called 'herding' where polling companies avoid reporting unusual findings to not seem wrong. This can lead to less information available to the public.
  3. The lack of variation in polls today is unusual and might mean real voter sentiment is being missed, setting the stage for a surprise outcome in elections.

Election Countdown, Six Days to Go: Simple Questions About What’s Ahead.

Breaking the News • 1398 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Polls may not accurately capture voter excitement, especially among women, which might lead to surprising results in the election.
  2. There are concerns that Trump isn't trying to win new voters and is instead focused on maintaining his base and planning for post-election strategies.
  3. The rhetoric used by Trump and some rallies can be alarmingly similar to dangerous historical rhetoric, raising concerns about the direction of political discourse.

Silver Bulletin 2024 election night coverage

Silver Bulletin • 1380 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. It's important to keep track of election night numbers for candidates like Trump and Harris. Knowing the latest results helps us understand how the election is going.
  2. You can join a chat during election night to discuss the results with others. It's a good way to share thoughts and hear different perspectives.
  3. This information is aimed at paid subscribers, so it's exclusive content for those who support the publication. Being a paid member allows for access to more in-depth analysis.

Are Trump Voters Misinformed, Or Were Harris Voters Just Not Given A Chance To Be Misinformed?

Singal-Minded • 1147 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Some surveys might show that Trump voters are more misinformed than Harris voters, but this could be due to bias in the questions asked.
  2. Americans often answer political questions based on feelings or general ideas rather than specific facts, so misinformation can come from both sides.
  3. The way questions are framed can lead to results that unfairly label one group as less informed than the other, proving we need balanced questions for fair evaluation.

Four THB Takeaways from the Incredible 2024 US Election

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1079 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. There has been a big shift in U.S. politics, showing that more voters are supporting Trump than in previous elections. This could change the political landscape for years to come.
  2. Policies are really important for making actual changes in government. It's crucial for Congress to play a bigger role in creating effective policies that help everyone.
  3. Independent media has become more important because they provide thoughtful and diverse viewpoints. Many traditional media outlets missed key points during the election, so people are turning to independent sources for better insights.

Why Harris Lost Uninformed Voters

The Discourse Lounge • 987 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. The way people get their news has changed a lot. Now, many young people rely on social media for their information, which can create a divide in opinions.
  2. Republicans have cleverly used social media to spread their messages and appeal to specific demographics, especially young men and women.
  3. Democrats need to adapt their strategies to this new media landscape because just stating facts isn't swaying voters like it used to.

Truman:Dewey::Biden:Trump?

Castalia • 259 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Harry Truman's hard work and fighting spirit helped him win against the odds in 1948. He showed that you can succeed even when the situation seems impossible.
  2. Political communication is super important. Leaders need to connect with people on a real level, rather than relying on fancy speeches or old-school methods.
  3. Democrats should pay attention to the heartland and focus on issues that matter to everyday people. They'll need a fresh outsider narrative to regain trust and connect better with voters.

WelcomePAC Celebrates a Republican Win, Not Realizing Centrists Have Done Worse.

JoeWrote • 55 implied HN points • 10 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. A DSA-linked progressive ran much closer than expected in a deep-red Tennessee district, outperforming the Democratic presidential baseline by about 13 points while being heavily outspent.
  2. Centrists quickly claimed a moderate would have done better, but that argument ignores spending gaps, cherry-picked special-election averages, and past centrist failures in the same district.
  3. Billionaire-funded centrist groups are using tactics like prewritten analyses and manipulated polls to protect donor interests, and as the left resurges they’ll likely step up coordinated pushback.

Don't mistake Democratic partisan orthodoxy for a "coherent" philosophy

Silver Bulletin • 764 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. The Democratic Party is made up of different groups with conflicting ideas, making it hard to have a clear, unified philosophy. Loyalty to the party can sometimes overshadow genuine ideological beliefs.
  2. Many voters have mixed political views that don’t fit neatly into one party, and that's often seen as confusing. However, their perspectives can actually make sense when you consider their desire for change.
  3. Interest groups and party tactics can create contradictions within the Democratic Party. Sometimes, these groups want different things, leading to conflicts in party policies and priorities.

Organized and Coordinated Attacks

Points And Figures • 879 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. The Democratic Party operates in a top-down manner, allowing members to understand their roles without needing direct instruction. This structure helps them coordinate efforts effectively, especially during elections.
  2. Republicans are more decentralized, leading to a wider variety of beliefs and approaches. This can create challenges in organizing efforts like voter turnout compared to Democrats.
  3. Recent polls and media narratives might not accurately reflect voter sentiment, raising concerns about their credibility. Many believe that political manipulation and biased reporting can skew public perception ahead of elections.

the most important idea in current politics

bad cattitude • 185 implied HN points • 09 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Modern politics often focuses on gaining power and influence rather than genuine beliefs or sentiments. This means strategies that seem surprising can be very effective in winning elections.
  2. Many voters, especially younger ones, have developed a view that values distant causes over their own communities. This is often rooted in feelings of self-hatred or guilt, leading them to support candidates that go against their own interests.
  3. There's a trend of candidates winning by appealing to voters' guilt and promoting self-doubt. This can result in policies that are harmful to the very people who support them, creating a cycle of self-destruction in political movements.

Can Democrats Be 'People-First' If Their Campaigns Value People Last?

theconnector • 294 implied HN points • 18 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Democratic campaigns need to prioritize human connections over dehumanizing marketing tactics.
  2. Engaging volunteers authentically and building relationships can lead to more effective and meaningful voter outreach.
  3. The traditional marketing approach in campaigns may backfire, highlighting the need for a shift towards relational organizing.

A Puzzle in Voter Behavior

Maximum Progress • 117 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Old republicans' anti-immigration sentiment challenges traditional theories of voter behavior based on self-interest.
  2. Voting decisions are not solely based on self-interest, but also influenced by factors like emotional benefits and group identity.
  3. Understanding voter behavior includes concepts like rational ignorance and rational irrationality, which account for limited impact of individual votes on election outcomes.

CDU and SPD condemned to betray their voters in the next Coalition of Failure, as Germans continue to abandon the cartel parties in droves

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 261 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior
  1. Many voters in Germany are leaving the traditional political parties, like CDU and SPD, which might lead to them not representing their followers well in future coalitions.
  2. The election results showed a growing divide, with new parties rising in popularity while older ones, especially the SPD, faced major losses and changes in leadership.
  3. The AfD has gained significant support and could challenge the existing parties, suggesting a shift in the political landscape that might make future governance difficult.