The hottest Voter Behavior Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

When the Edge Lords Lead

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1838 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Commentary Elections Campaign strategies Voter Behavior Media influence
  1. The people leading Trump's events tend to be edgy and enjoy making shocking jokes, which can backfire with voters. They don’t seem to recognize how their humor might upset others.
  2. Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made a joke that offended many, and his humor reflects how tone-deaf these leaders are to wider voter opinions. This can be risky for Trump’s campaign.
  3. As the election approaches, every mistake could sway undecided voters, so it's crucial for campaigns to focus on appealing to all potential supporters, not just their base.

Announcing My New Column in The Washington Post

Thinking in Bets • 138 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Behavior Political Analysis Opinion Data interpretation
  1. Annie Duke is starting a new opinion column in The Washington Post, focusing on risk and decision-making. She'll share insights on how we interpret important data.
  2. The column will discuss the misleading nature of data interpretation, particularly regarding Black voters' support in elections. Duke argues that misinterpretations can be more harmful than misinformation.
  3. Annie's background as a decision scientist and former poker player helps her analyze how people make choices, which she'll explore in her writing.

Reality Check

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 2537 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Candidates Political trends Voter Behavior
  1. Polling shows a tight race, which might favor Trump since he's historically done well in similar situations. Key voters who are likely to turn out are showing signs they might back him.
  2. Democrats, especially Kamala Harris, are facing issues with voter turnout and are seen as frustrated. Trump, on the other hand, appears to be energized and is campaigning actively in swing states.
  3. Many Americans feel dissatisfied with their current situation, and they trust Republicans more on major issues like the economy and crime. This shift in sentiment could impact the election results.

Morning Reads: Biden, Harris, Trump, and More in the Political Mix

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Behavior Campaign strategies Political Analysis Political Tactics
  1. Biden may actually be the best candidate we've had, as some articles suggest he knows how to handle the country's problems well.
  2. Kamala Harris needs to change her approach to reach non-college-educated white voters better, especially in key swing states.
  3. There are signs that some middle-class Black voters are shifting their support to the right, which could change the voting landscape.

Equity Meme, Dominance Disputes, Voter Preferences

Rob Henderson's Newsletter • 965 implied HN points • 27 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Behavior Social Issues Identity politics Public Policy
  1. Alpha male chimpanzees can become too aggressive, leading lower-ranking males to team up against them. In extreme cases, they might even kill the dominant male.
  2. In the last century, men have grown much taller and stronger than women, possibly because women prefer taller, more muscular men.
  3. Voter preferences have changed, with white voters remaining stable in their choices while nonwhite voters have increasingly leaned towards the Republican party.
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CDU and SPD condemned to betray their voters in the next Coalition of Failure, as Germans continue to abandon the cartel parties in droves

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 261 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Parties Coalitions Voter Behavior Political trends
  1. Many voters in Germany are leaving the traditional political parties, like CDU and SPD, which might lead to them not representing their followers well in future coalitions.
  2. The election results showed a growing divide, with new parties rising in popularity while older ones, especially the SPD, faced major losses and changes in leadership.
  3. The AfD has gained significant support and could challenge the existing parties, suggesting a shift in the political landscape that might make future governance difficult.

Here's What I'm Reading Tonight on the Election

COVID Reason • 515 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaign Strategy Media influence Voter Behavior
  1. Kamala Harris is facing tough questions about her leadership and actions, which could affect how voters see her as a potential leader. People are starting to doubt her ability to handle future challenges.
  2. There are mixed feelings among Democrats about the upcoming elections; some are feeling hopeful while others are anxious about their chances against Trump. It's a reminder that anything can happen in politics.
  3. The importance of chance in elections is highlighted, suggesting that the outcome might sometimes depend on luck rather than just strategies and campaigning. It's an interesting thought about how unpredictable politics can be.

Why has the right become more popular among low-income voters?

Optimally Irrational • 65 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior Populism Economic issues
  1. Low-income voters are increasingly supporting right-wing parties because they feel left-wing parties have ignored their economic concerns. Issues like globalization and immigration are really important to them.
  2. There is a growing divide in the political landscape between educated urban voters and lower-income, less educated voters. Many low-income individuals feel their views are not respected anymore in left-wing political circles.
  3. This shift is not just due to cultural factors, but also because low-income workers see right-wing populists as offering more direct responses to their economic and social grievances.

Election Update 6: The Puckering

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 7102 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaigns Voter Behavior Party Dynamics
  1. Democrats are feeling anxious as key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin show Trump leading. It's crucial for Harris to win all three to take the presidency.
  2. Many Democrats may have overlooked voter sentiments, which can lead to big consequences. There's a sense that the Democratic Party needs to reconnect with American voters.
  3. This election isn't just about who wins but also reflects broader public opinions on political messaging. The results could spark major changes in media and party leadership.

Misunderstanding Trump Voters

Disaffected Newsletter • 4436 implied HN points • 27 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Behavior Political Identity Political Commentary Public Discourse
  1. Not all Trump voters are fans of his personality; some vote for him despite it. They have serious concerns about the current political climate and feel voting for Trump is their best option.
  2. There are former Democrats who now support Trump because they believe the Democratic agenda is harmful to the country. They’re not swayed by Trump's style but by the policies they disagree with.
  3. Critics like McWhorter may misjudge Trump voters by thinking they are blindly loyal. There's a call for a deeper understanding of their motivations beyond just Trump's persona.

A No Fear Election for Business

Dana Blankenhorn: Facing the Future • 79 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Market Analysis Political strategy Business impact Voter Behavior
  1. The stock market is calm before the upcoming election, even though both candidates are playing on people's fears. It's interesting that business seems more relaxed than voters.
  2. The most likely outcome is a Kamala Harris win with a Republican-controlled Senate, which could lead to a stalemate that won't shake up the markets much. Businesses don't like uncertainty, and a stalemate is somewhat stable.
  3. Even if the Democrats win big, major changes are unlikely. Harris would need to work with Congress, and markets think she may not negotiate as effectively as Biden did. So, if business isn't worried, maybe the general public shouldn't be either.

Don't mistake Democratic partisan orthodoxy for a "coherent" philosophy

Silver Bulletin • 764 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Partisanship Political parties Political Ideologies Voter Behavior Election Dynamics
  1. The Democratic Party is made up of different groups with conflicting ideas, making it hard to have a clear, unified philosophy. Loyalty to the party can sometimes overshadow genuine ideological beliefs.
  2. Many voters have mixed political views that don’t fit neatly into one party, and that's often seen as confusing. However, their perspectives can actually make sense when you consider their desire for change.
  3. Interest groups and party tactics can create contradictions within the Democratic Party. Sometimes, these groups want different things, leading to conflicts in party policies and priorities.

Silver Bulletin 2024 election night coverage

Silver Bulletin • 1380 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Political Analysis Voter Behavior Campaigns
  1. It's important to keep track of election night numbers for candidates like Trump and Harris. Knowing the latest results helps us understand how the election is going.
  2. You can join a chat during election night to discuss the results with others. It's a good way to share thoughts and hear different perspectives.
  3. This information is aimed at paid subscribers, so it's exclusive content for those who support the publication. Being a paid member allows for access to more in-depth analysis.

Polling is becoming more of an art than a science

Silver Bulletin • 214 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Political trends Voter Behavior Data Analysis
  1. Polling accuracy is becoming less predictable and more nuanced. Pollsters are feeling cautiously optimistic this time, although mistakes still happened in predicting election outcomes.
  2. Pollsters are likely to stick with their current methods for 2026. Many have already adapted and believe the changes they've made are effective enough for now.
  3. There is no single best way to conduct polls anymore. Different methods and tech are used by different polling organizations, which can lead to varied results.

We Are Losers

Singal-Minded • 3790 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political movement Election Analysis Voter Behavior Campaign Strategy Political Commentary
  1. The anti-Trump movement is not working as it should; many think it needs a complete overhaul. People involved have gotten too caught up in their own beliefs and are not effectively addressing voters' real concerns.
  2. Despite being passionate against Trump, many in this movement are losing sight of what truly matters to average voters. They may feel strongly about their views, but those feelings are not resonating with most Americans.
  3. Instead of focusing on who to blame for their failures, the anti-Trump movement should rethink their approach. They need to attract more realistic and relatable voices to have a better chance at winning in the future.

Organized and Coordinated Attacks

Points And Figures • 879 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Election Process Party Dynamics Voter Behavior Media influence
  1. The Democratic Party operates in a top-down manner, allowing members to understand their roles without needing direct instruction. This structure helps them coordinate efforts effectively, especially during elections.
  2. Republicans are more decentralized, leading to a wider variety of beliefs and approaches. This can create challenges in organizing efforts like voter turnout compared to Democrats.
  3. Recent polls and media narratives might not accurately reflect voter sentiment, raising concerns about their credibility. Many believe that political manipulation and biased reporting can skew public perception ahead of elections.

Chartbook 332 The radicalization of Trump's GOP and the realignment of the American electorate.

Chartbook • 2517 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Voter Behavior Political Ideology Economic Policy
  1. Trump's return to power shows how voters are upset with the current leaders, wanting change after COVID and inflation. Many incumbents around the world have struggled recently, making his win less surprising.
  2. The political landscape in America is shifting, with Trump appealing more to working-class voters while wealthier, college-educated individuals are increasingly voting for Democrats. This shift highlights growing divides between different social and economic groups.
  3. Despite emphasizing issues like inequality and social justice, Democrats are losing touch with less affluent voters who are facing economic struggles. Ironically, many lower-income Americans who supported Trump might be hurt by his policies.

Election Countdown: The Day After.

Breaking the News • 2347 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Voter Behavior Political Analysis Government
  1. Voters had several years to see Donald Trump's actions and behavior clearly, and they still chose him again. This shows a significant change in how the public views him compared to past elections.
  2. Kamala Harris ran a strong campaign with few mistakes, while Trump had a rocky one. Despite this, the election outcome favored Trump, which highlights a surprising shift in voter priorities.
  3. Two experts who believed Americans would make a rational choice were proven wrong. This suggests that the election results reflect a deeper understanding of current American values and beliefs.

No better room

benn.substack • 1815 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political Analysis Voter Behavior Political strategy
  1. The team had multiple backup plans ready for the election night, but they ended up not needing them at all because the outcome was clear very quickly. This shows how sometimes, despite all the preparation, things can turn out differently than expected.
  2. Even though they lost the election, the atmosphere in the room was charged with intensity and urgency as they worked together to process data. The experience was thrilling, highlighting the importance of being actively involved even when facing tough situations.
  3. The hardworking people behind the scenes may not get recognition for their efforts after a loss, but their commitment and dedication are valuable. They might be unnoticed now, but their hard work is still important for future efforts.

Are the Polls too Close to Be Trusted?

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1755 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polling Elections Voter Behavior Political Analysis Statistical Methods
  1. Polls can often show very similar results, especially in tight races. This might indicate that pollsters are playing it safe and not reporting outlier results.
  2. There is a concern called 'herding' where polling companies avoid reporting unusual findings to not seem wrong. This can lead to less information available to the public.
  3. The lack of variation in polls today is unusual and might mean real voter sentiment is being missed, setting the stage for a surprise outcome in elections.

Election Countdown, Six Days to Go: Simple Questions About What’s Ahead.

Breaking the News • 1398 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Rhetoric Campaign strategies Voter Behavior Judicial system
  1. Polls may not accurately capture voter excitement, especially among women, which might lead to surprising results in the election.
  2. There are concerns that Trump isn't trying to win new voters and is instead focused on maintaining his base and planning for post-election strategies.
  3. The rhetoric used by Trump and some rallies can be alarmingly similar to dangerous historical rhetoric, raising concerns about the direction of political discourse.

Are Trump Voters Misinformed, Or Were Harris Voters Just Not Given A Chance To Be Misinformed?

Singal-Minded • 1147 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Surveys Voter Behavior Political Bias Public Opinion
  1. Some surveys might show that Trump voters are more misinformed than Harris voters, but this could be due to bias in the questions asked.
  2. Americans often answer political questions based on feelings or general ideas rather than specific facts, so misinformation can come from both sides.
  3. The way questions are framed can lead to results that unfairly label one group as less informed than the other, proving we need balanced questions for fair evaluation.

Four THB Takeaways from the Incredible 2024 US Election

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1079 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Party Dynamics Media Voter Behavior
  1. There has been a big shift in U.S. politics, showing that more voters are supporting Trump than in previous elections. This could change the political landscape for years to come.
  2. Policies are really important for making actual changes in government. It's crucial for Congress to play a bigger role in creating effective policies that help everyone.
  3. Independent media has become more important because they provide thoughtful and diverse viewpoints. Many traditional media outlets missed key points during the election, so people are turning to independent sources for better insights.

Why Harris Lost Uninformed Voters

The Discourse Lounge • 987 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political media Voter Behavior Partisan Politics Social media Election Campaigns
  1. The way people get their news has changed a lot. Now, many young people rely on social media for their information, which can create a divide in opinions.
  2. Republicans have cleverly used social media to spread their messages and appeal to specific demographics, especially young men and women.
  3. Democrats need to adapt their strategies to this new media landscape because just stating facts isn't swaying voters like it used to.

Why Did Trump Win?

Vinay Prasad's Observations and Thoughts • 272 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Behavior Political Analysis Public Policy Campaign Strategy
  1. Trump won because different voters had different reasons for supporting him. Issues like immigration and inflation resonated with many.
  2. His clear stances on controversial topics, like abortion and transgender issues, attracted some voters who felt more represented by him.
  3. Trump's personality and media presence helped him gain a following, while perceptions about his opponent's weaknesses were also influential.

Is Political Advertising Obsolete?

The Liberal Patriot • 943 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Advertising Campaign Strategy Voter Behavior Political Trust
  1. Political advertising may not be as effective as believed, with many Americans tuning out or not being influenced by ads.
  2. Trust is essential in communication, and political ads struggle to gain trust from the public compared to corporate advertisements.
  3. The network effect, where people trust information from close contacts, is more influential in political persuasion than traditional advertising.

Why You Should Ignore All the Polls

The Ruffian • 227 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Campaigns Political Analysis Voter Behavior
  1. Polls don't really tell you what you need to know about elections. They can be misleading and don't account for many factors.
  2. When you feel tempted to constantly check election updates, try doing something else instead. Activities like walking or listening to music can make you feel better.
  3. No matter how informed you think you are, you can't predict the outcome of elections. It's better to accept uncertainty than stress about it.

How the value divide is challenging Britain's two-party system

Comment is Freed • 45 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Elections Party Dynamics Voter Behavior
  1. The recent UK election showed a split in voter values, making it harder for traditional parties like Labour and Conservatives to win purely by appealing to the center.
  2. The two main parties received their lowest combined vote percentage ever, indicating a rise in other groups like Reform UK and the Greens.
  3. This shift suggests that British politics might be moving towards a more diverse system with multiple parties instead of just two big ones.

Educated rage

Wrong Side of History • 256 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political polarization Higher education Cultural Issues Voter Behavior Party Affiliation
  1. Higher education has grown a lot since the post-war period, leading to more people getting college degrees. This change has shifted how people vote, especially since the 1970s.
  2. In the past, college graduates tended to support right-wing politics. However, as cultural issues gained importance, more educated people began to lean left.
  3. The rise of higher education is compared to major historical changes, like the end of the priesthood. It has intensified cultural conflicts and made views on both sides more extreme.

Truman:Dewey::Biden:Trump?

Castalia • 259 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Voter Behavior Political Communication Public Opinion
  1. Harry Truman's hard work and fighting spirit helped him win against the odds in 1948. He showed that you can succeed even when the situation seems impossible.
  2. Political communication is super important. Leaders need to connect with people on a real level, rather than relying on fancy speeches or old-school methods.
  3. Democrats should pay attention to the heartland and focus on issues that matter to everyday people. They'll need a fresh outsider narrative to regain trust and connect better with voters.

A Postmortem On Postmortems

Slack Tide by Matt Labash • 211 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Commentary Voter Behavior Government Political culture
  1. People often feel confused and frustrated about political events. It can be hard to understand how things happen and why they affect us deeply.
  2. There's a sense of humor that can help us cope with current political chaos. Laughing about tough situations can be a way to deal with stress.
  3. Despite political problems, life continues with many important aspects outside of politics. Family, friends, and personal experiences still matter a lot.

Biden’s problem is with swing voters, not with his base

Silver Bulletin • 418 implied HN points • 02 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Voter Behavior Campaigning Partisanship
  1. Democrats should focus on swing voters rather than relying solely on turnout from their base for the 2024 election.
  2. The composition of the electorate has shifted, with Democrats losing their edge on party identification in many polls.
  3. Biden's challenge lies in retaining support from swing voters who are not necessarily loyal to the Democratic base for the upcoming election.

Breaking the Democratic Double Standard

American Dreaming • 169 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Campaign strategies Voter Behavior Political Ethics
  1. The Democratic Party faces a tough challenge because they are seen as less trustworthy than Republicans. This double standard means that any mistake by Democrats is heavily criticized, while Republicans get a pass for bigger wrongdoings.
  2. Democrats have a harder time selling their ideas because they tend to be more complex and unfamiliar. This makes it difficult to convince voters, especially as people often prefer sticking with what they know.
  3. The structure of the Electoral College favors Republicans, allowing them to win without the popular vote, while Democrats struggle to do the opposite. This system is unlikely to change, which adds to the challenges for the Democratic Party.

Cage Match

Slack Tide by Matt Labash • 146 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Discourse Voter Behavior Political Commentary
  1. There is a lot of focus on trivial topics in politics that distract from serious issues, like candidate qualifications and campaigns. These discussions can feel absurd and make it seem like we're living in a silly reality show.
  2. Debates about Trump often end with accusations of 'Trump Derangement Syndrome' to dismiss opposing views. This tactic is common and can hinder constructive conversation.
  3. People sometimes lose touch with objective reality in their political beliefs. Strong loyalty to a leader can make facts feel irrelevant, which complicates discussions and disagreements.

The *Actual* Day After

Gideon's Substack • 40 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Voter Behavior Policy Issues Political strategy
  1. Trump was seen as the likely Republican nominee early on, and once he was nominated, it seemed he would have a good chance of winning the presidency again. Many factors, including Biden's unpopularity, contributed to this belief.
  2. The recent election showed a strong shift to the right in voter preferences across many demographics, including young people and various minority groups. This indicates widespread dissatisfaction with the current state of leadership and policies.
  3. Democrats need to acknowledge the reasons behind the election results and work on offering solutions and fresh ideas, rather than just trying to reverse the outcome. It's essential to fill the gaps in governance and connect with the voters' concerns.

Can Democrats Be 'People-First' If Their Campaigns Value People Last?

theconnector • 294 implied HN points • 18 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns Democratic Party Voter Behavior Fundraising
  1. Democratic campaigns need to prioritize human connections over dehumanizing marketing tactics.
  2. Engaging volunteers authentically and building relationships can lead to more effective and meaningful voter outreach.
  3. The traditional marketing approach in campaigns may backfire, highlighting the need for a shift towards relational organizing.

The Shape of Things To Come

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 100 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Voter Behavior Political Analysis Economic Policy
  1. Voters feel that the Democratic Party no longer represents the working class, leading to a sense of distrust. Many are struggling economically and expect more from their leaders.
  2. Democratic leaders deny that they have abandoned workers and continue to focus on fundraising, which creates wealth for politicians and affects their ability to serve the public.
  3. Both political parties are stuck in a cycle of shifting populist candidates without making real changes to help people. This pattern could continue unless a new party emerges that truly addresses the needs of everyday citizens.