The hottest Uncertainty Substack posts right now

In times of great uncertainty, principles are more important than rules.
Rules can provide a false sense of security and be easily manipulated.
Understanding the principle behind a decision-making rule is crucial for making better decisions.

The climate crisis brings discontinuities and new realities we're unprepared for.
Climate change is just one aspect of a larger crisis involving extinctions, ecosystem collapses, and evolving dangers.
Our lives and societies are facing unprecedented disruptions and societal upheaval due to the profound scale of natural system transformations.

The ability to measure anything can greatly increase your ability to estimate ROI on data initiatives and reduce uncertainty for informed decision-making.
Rethink measurement by understanding that you only need to reduce uncertainty to a manageable level, not eliminate it completely.
Techniques like the Rule of Five, decomposition, and challenging false assumptions about data can help in measuring intangible aspects effectively.

The author is exploring creative uncertainty through drawings and poetry.
Creativity thrives when pushing beyond comfort zones and into the unknown.
Art can be a powerful way to convey emotions and messages without relying on words.

Jack was a courageous hero who helped his village in a time of crisis
Jack sought help from mysterious creatures to save his village from disappearing gold coins
The villagers faced challenges but came together, inspired by Jack's determination to thrive without the mysterious coins

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Consider the effectiveness and potential effects of interventions.
Analyze costs and benefits using the Four Moneys and compare to opportunity costs.
Compare interventions to doing nothing and to other potential actions without over-quantifying.

Free will is about the subjective experience of decision-making, not just determinism.
Being able to freely choose without coercion is key to considering oneself the cause of an outcome.
Making decisions involves reasoning under uncertainty and balancing possible outcomes, which is the essence of free will.

Uncertainty can actually increase cooperation in certain situations.
To address breakdowns in cooperation in scientific studies, integration mechanisms like co-authorship can increase credibility and reliability of results.
In the face of surprising experimental findings, proposing new mechanisms and experiments can lead to advancements in scientific knowledge.

Innovation is often uncertain, and traditional management methods may not work well for it. Organizations need to adapt their approach to hiring and goal-setting when they don't know what their end goals are.
There are different mindsets that organizations can have. An 'uncertainty mindset' helps teams navigate unknown futures better than a 'risk mindset', which assumes the future can be predicted.
The current global situation highlights the need for understanding and accepting uncertainty. Recognizing that we don't have all the answers can help organizations adjust their strategies more effectively.