Thinking in Bets

Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke explores decision-making in uncertain environments, emphasizing learning, growth, and the strategic benefits of quitting. It covers cognitive biases, the challenges of change, and the impact of technology on decisions. The content ranges from personal development and scientific insights to practical tips for improving judgment and embracing change.

Decision Making Cognitive Biases Change Management Technology and Society Personal Development Scientific Literacy Ethics and Morality Effective Communication Innovation and Exploration Policy and Misinformation

The hottest Substack posts of Thinking in Bets

And their main takeaways

Announcing My New Column in The Washington Post

138 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Behavior Political Analysis Opinion Data interpretation
  1. Annie Duke is starting a new opinion column in The Washington Post, focusing on risk and decision-making. She'll share insights on how we interpret important data.
  2. The column will discuss the misleading nature of data interpretation, particularly regarding Black voters' support in elections. Duke argues that misinterpretations can be more harmful than misinformation.
  3. Annie's background as a decision scientist and former poker player helps her analyze how people make choices, which she'll explore in her writing.

Join me for a conversation with Brett Berson, Partner at First Round Capital

138 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
đź’Ľ Business Venture Capital Investment strategy Decision-making Startups
  1. Learn how a top venture capital firm has changed its investment processes. They focus on being more organized and efficient.
  2. Discover how to make better investment choices using data. A data-driven approach helps in making smarter decisions.
  3. Find out how to improve feedback loops in finance. Creating quicker feedback can help in long-term decision-making.

My Next Decision Making Class is Launching on November 18th!

138 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
🚌 Education Teaching Learning Courses Skills Workshops
  1. A decision-making class starts on November 18th and will run for three weeks with live zoom sessions. It’s designed to help people make better decisions using a structured process.
  2. You'll learn what makes decision-making hard, like cognitive biases, and how to work better as a team when making choices.
  3. The course includes interactive sessions and projects, and past students found it transformative and beneficial for both personal and career growth.

TO REGRET OR NOT TO REGRET?

911 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
  1. Just because something is true doesn't mean it's the truth
  2. Digging deeper into data can change the narrative
  3. Quitting can often lead to happiness despite societal views
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A few decades later...

1902 implied HN points • 15 Jun 23
  1. Annie successfully defended her dissertation today
  2. She completed what she started three decades ago at UPenn
  3. Annie is now officially a doctor

My next Maven class launches Monday!

396 implied HN points • 03 Jan 24
  1. Annie Duke is launching a new Maven class on making better decisions starting Monday.
  2. The course includes experiential learning methods like case studies, activities, videos, and live coaching.
  3. Participants benefit from a community of like-minded individuals and gain practical insights beyond Annie Duke's books.

Why Quitters Win

396 implied HN points • 08 Nov 23
  1. The post discusses why quitters win.
  2. Annie Duke shares insights from a fireside chat at Google's innovation hub.
  3. The post encourages readers to consider the concept of quitting in a new light.

The Nostalgia Delusion

336 implied HN points • 08 Dec 23
  1. People often view the past with nostalgia, believing things were better back then.
  2. Despite evidence showing improvement, many individuals still think the present is worse than the past.
  3. Nostalgia can cause individuals to overlook recent history and focus on an embellished version of the past.

Why You Need a Quitting Coach

534 implied HN points • 20 Aug 23
  1. We are more likely to make rational decisions for others than for ourselves.
  2. Listening to advice from others can lead to wiser decisions.
  3. Having a quitting coach could be beneficial for decision-making.

A Little (Scientific) Knowledge is a Dangerous Thing

435 implied HN points • 26 Sep 23
  1. People with intermediate scientific knowledge tend to be overconfident and anti-science.
  2. Overconfidence in scientific knowledge can lead to negative attitudes toward science.
  3. Decisions based on false or inadequate scientific knowledge can have serious consequences.

Q&A with Gloria Mark, Author of “Attention Span: A Groundbreaking Way to Restore Balance, Happiness and Productivity”

495 implied HN points • 26 Aug 23
  1. Our attention span has dramatically shortened due to our digital world and various societal factors.
  2. A shortened attention span leads to increased errors, longer task completion times, and higher stress levels.
  3. Strategies for managing attention include focusing on one task at a time, incorporating cognitive snacking breaks, and being intentional about goals and interruptions.

The Great Resignation in the Rearview Mirror

198 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
  1. In April 2020, the U.S. saw a significant rise in unemployment due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
  2. The Great Resignation began in April 2021, with many workers voluntarily quitting their jobs.
  3. Recent data shows that the Great Resignation is now over, with workers staying in their current jobs.

The Illusory Truth Effect

435 implied HN points • 30 Aug 23
  1. Repetition makes things feel true, even if they're not.
  2. Social media can amplify the illusory truth effect.
  3. Repeated exposure to information can weaken moral judgments.

Monkeys and the Reverse Salient

634 implied HN points • 08 May 23
  1. Identify the bottleneck and solve it first
  2. Focus on tackling the hard things before the easy tasks
  3. Be cautious of false progress

A Visual Synopsis of QUIT from Dani Saveker

336 implied HN points • 08 Oct 23
  1. The post shares a visual synopsis of 'QUIT' from Dani Saveker.
  2. The visual synopsis is captivating and based on 'Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away.'
  3. Annie Duke appreciates Dani Saveker's work and feels honored.

How our brains are wired for nostalgia...and much more

297 implied HN points • 02 Oct 23
  1. Our brains are wired for nostalgia and tend to focus more on negative events than positive ones.
  2. Expected value can be a useful decision-making tool in uncertain situations, helping us weigh risks and rewards.
  3. To address complex issues like climate change, aligning individual incentives with collective goals can lead to more rational decision-making.

A Taxonomy of Cognitive Bias

594 implied HN points • 29 Mar 23
  1. Cognitive biases are often seen as independent errors in judgment, but they may be related to each other
  2. Biases like sunk cost fallacy and loss aversion can be tied to a common theme of not wanting to stop things once started
  3. Different cognitive biases may not be entirely independent and could have some connections

Deciding, Fast and Slow with Daniel Kahneman

376 implied HN points • 20 Jul 23
  1. Slowing down before making decisions can help avoid mistakes.
  2. Understanding the difference between bias (average errors) and noise (variability of errors) is crucial for improving judgment.
  3. Consider the outside view, look at similar cases, and be mindful of pattern noise to make more accurate decisions.

Q&A with Matt Abrahams, lecturer at Stanford Graduate School of Business, author of Think Faster, Talk Smarter

237 implied HN points • 02 Nov 23
  1. Most people feel nervous when speaking spontaneously, as they feel judged and under pressure to perform well.
  2. The contemporary business environment, with technologies like texts and Slacks, demands quick and spontaneous responses, adding to speaking pressure.
  3. To speak successfully on the spot, it's essential to manage anxiety, shift focus from perfection to connection, and reframe being put on the spot as an opportunity.

Partisan Bias Swamps Fact Checks

416 implied HN points • 23 May 23
  1. Fact-checking political misinformation can reduce beliefs, but partisan bias often overrides corrections.
  2. Even when corrected, people tend to stick to beliefs shared by those in the same political party.
  3. Fact-checks from political in-group members are most effective in correcting misinformation among partisans.

Next AMA is December 11th at 3pm Eastern

178 implied HN points • 28 Nov 23
  1. Next AMA with Annie Duke on December 11th at 3pm Eastern.
  2. AMA will be on Zoom for paid subscribers only.
  3. Mark your calendars and stay tuned for the link!

Why Quitting is Underrated

515 implied HN points • 23 Feb 23
  1. Quitting is not always a bad thing, grit is not always good.
  2. Knowing when to quit is an important decision-making skill.
  3. Quitting does not equal failure, it can lead to success.

My New Maven Course is Open for Enrollment

178 implied HN points • 21 Nov 23
  1. Annie Duke has a new Maven course open for enrollment
  2. Course dates are from January 8-25, 2024, with specific timings and office hours
  3. Early registration offers a discount of 25% until November 28, with additional discounts for paid subscribers

WELCOME TO THE THINKING IN BETS SUBSTACK

534 implied HN points • 12 Jan 23
  1. Annie Duke is moving her newsletter to Substack to build a stronger community around decision making.
  2. Subscribers will get the same content for free on Substack.
  3. Paid subscriptions offer perks like Zoom AMAs, access to 'The Mailbag,' and subscriber-only discussions.

Q&A with Hal Hershfield

336 implied HN points • 06 Jun 23
  1. Mental time travel is the ability to move forward or backward in time in our minds, and it's fundamental in decision making.
  2. Humans are prone to temporal discounting, preferring immediate rewards over delayed ones, impacting choices like retirement planning.
  3. Strategies for better decision making include strengthening the relationship with the future self, using commitment devices, and making present-day sacrifices feel easier.

Q&A with Abby Davisson, coauthor of Money and Love: An Intelligent Roadmap for Life’s Biggest Decisions

277 implied HN points • 28 Jul 23
  1. In decisions regarding love and relationships, it's crucial to apply rationality and consider both emotional and practical aspects.
  2. Discussing career ambitions early in a relationship is vital, especially for women, to ensure equal advantages and avoid disadvantageous situations later on.
  3. A framework like the 5Cs - Clarify, Communicate, Choices, Check In, Consequences - can help in making thoughtful decisions about money and love, by encouraging deliberate, slow thinking and consideration of all aspects.

The Trolley Problem: Human vs. Robot Edition

475 implied HN points • 26 Jan 23
  1. The trolley problem explores ethics and morality in human vs. robot decision-making.
  2. People tend to blame humans more for taking action than for inaction in the trolley problem.
  3. Humans expect robots to act in the trolley problem, showing differences in judgment between humans and robots.

Join me on Notes

376 implied HN points • 11 Apr 23
  1. Annie Duke has a new space on Substack called Notes for sharing various content like links, quotes, and photos.
  2. To join Annie Duke on Notes, go to substack.com/notes or find the 'Notes' tab in the Substack app.
  3. Readers of Thinking in Bets can participate in Notes by liking, replying, and sharing content.

Q&A with Vanessa Patrick, author of The Power of Saying No

317 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
  1. Saying no is difficult due to social pressures and the fear of damaging relationships and reputation.
  2. Learning to say no is important to prioritize what's meaningful and important to you, avoiding stress and increasing fulfillment.
  3. Effective ways to say no include setting personal policies, being clear and concrete, and embracing the opportunity cost of saying no.

Hangry Hanging Judges?

376 implied HN points • 07 Apr 23
  1. Scientific findings that go viral may not always be true
  2. Intuitive concepts can be easily accepted as fact, even if evidence disproves them
  3. Skepticism is crucial, especially when explanations confirm our prior beliefs

John Madden on quitting

416 implied HN points • 02 Mar 23
  1. If something isn't working, it's okay to quit
  2. Recognize when to give up on things that aren't going well
  3. Know when it's time to walk away from a situation

The Illusion of Moral Decline

297 implied HN points • 13 Jun 23
  1. Many people believe we are in a state of moral decline.
  2. New research suggests that this belief may be a mass illusion.
  3. The political and cultural landscape is marked by increasing divisiveness and partisanship.

The Wisdom of (Drunken) Crowds?

317 implied HN points • 26 Apr 23
  1. Individual drunk narrators are unreliable, but groups can be accurate.
  2. A 2008 study found that drunken groups are more accurate than drunk individuals.
  3. Alcohol impaired individual accuracy, but group consensus was less erroneous in the study.

Free Copy of Thinking in Bets LIT videobook

317 implied HN points • 21 Apr 23
  1. Get a free copy of the Thinking in Bets LIT videobook by Annie Duke
  2. Learn how to make better decisions, evaluate risk, and avoid cognitive biases
  3. Use promo code THINKINGINBETS for individual book purchases

Beaten By Pigeons?

396 implied HN points • 31 Jan 23
  1. In the Monty Hall Problem, it's better to switch doors to improve your chances.
  2. Most people stick with their original choice even though switching doors is statistically better.
  3. Pigeons are quicker to learn the optimal strategy of switching doors compared to humans.

A Winning Approach to Decision-Making in English Football

237 implied HN points • 05 Jul 23
  1. The article discusses decision-making in English football.
  2. It highlights strategies for avoiding the 'resulting' bias in judging decisions.
  3. Readers can access more insights with a 7-day free trial.