Thinking in Bets

Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke explores decision-making in uncertain environments, emphasizing learning, growth, and the strategic benefits of quitting. It covers cognitive biases, the challenges of change, and the impact of technology on decisions. The content ranges from personal development and scientific insights to practical tips for improving judgment and embracing change.

Decision Making Cognitive Biases Change Management Technology and Society Personal Development Scientific Literacy Ethics and Morality Effective Communication Innovation and Exploration Policy and Misinformation

The hottest Substack posts of Thinking in Bets

And their main takeaways

Another Mailbag Answer!

336 implied HN points • 18 Mar 23
  1. Outliers in datasets can skew results and this can impact decision-making in the real world
  2. Availability bias is the tendency to overemphasize vivid or easily recalled information
  3. Availability bias can lead to irrational assessments and influence public policy

Q&A with Katy Milkman

257 implied HN points • 05 Jun 23
  1. Katy Milkman focuses on helping people make better decisions to achieve their goals, using tools and interventions to set them up for success.
  2. Implementation intentions, like setting specific conditions to meet a goal, can significantly increase success rates.
  3. Temptation bundling, combining a goal with a reward or enjoyable task, can make pursuing goals more pleasant and effective.

A TASTE FOR EXPLORATION

396 implied HN points • 13 Jan 23
  1. Ajinomoto transformed from selling MSG to becoming a top performer in semiconductor insulation.
  2. Continuing to explore new options is crucial for personal and corporate growth.
  3. Avoid falling into the trap of sticking to what works; innovation and exploration are key to longevity in success.
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Mailbag Answers

297 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
  1. Help teenagers make better decisions by encouraging them to consider the long-term consequences of their actions.
  2. Use precommitment contracts to guide teenagers in making positive decisions and avoiding negative ones.
  3. Encourage regular conversations with their future selves to help teenagers stick to commitments and make better decisions.

Bait and Switch

317 implied HN points • 16 Feb 23
  1. Grit is often glorified in success stories, but quitting can be just as important.
  2. Sometimes, quitting something that isn't working can free up resources for more worthwhile pursuits.
  3. Success comes from knowing when to stick with things worth doing and when to quit the rest.

Gary Marcus on ChatGPT

317 implied HN points • 09 Feb 23
  1. ChatGPT is a fast-growing consumer product, but it's not intelligent enough to trust fully.
  2. ChatGPT can generate a mix of true and false information, making it unreliable for accurate results.
  3. There are concerns about the impact of chatbots like ChatGPT on education, healthcare, and the spread of misinformation.

More Mailbag Answers

257 implied HN points • 03 Apr 23
  1. When making important decisions, embrace uncertainty and use tools like premortem and backcast to increase chances of a happy outcome.
  2. Exploring multiple options in parallel can help in making better decisions with less downside.
  3. When it comes to predictions in the media, look for explicit and scored forecasts to understand a pundit's track record; pay attention when many pundits from different disciplines make similar predictions.

Season 4 of The Decision Education Podcast Starts July 19

178 implied HN points • 12 Jul 23
  1. Season 4 of The Decision Education Podcast starts on July 19.
  2. The podcast will feature decision-making scholars and experts like Daniel Kahneman, Sheena Iyengar, and more.
  3. New episodes with tips on making better decisions will be released starting on July 19.

Mailbag!

257 implied HN points • 07 Feb 23
  1. Creating checklists and rubrics can improve decision-making but getting people to use them is challenging.
  2. Getting feedback independently improves group decisions, but people prefer group settings which can lead to biases.
  3. Overcoming cognitive biases is difficult, but creating decision rubrics and recording judgments can help analyze and improve decision-making.

Paid Subscriber AMA May 10th

158 implied HN points • 24 Apr 23
  1. Annie Duke is hosting a paid subscriber AMA on May 10th at 6 pm eastern time
  2. Zoom link will be sent out the morning of the event
  3. Reader-supported publication - consider becoming a free or paid subscriber to support

Netflix and Qwikster

178 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
  1. The decision to split Netflix into two separate businesses was a disaster due to poor execution and increased costs for customers.
  2. Group decision making can be flawed, as people may not speak up or share all relevant information, leading to poor decision quality.
  3. To improve decision quality, elicit feedback independently and asynchronously before group discussions, as this can lead to more accurate and diverse viewpoints.

Paid subscriber AMA today at 6pm!

138 implied HN points • 10 May 23
  1. Paid subscriber AMA at 6pm today on annieduke.substack.com
  2. Interact with Annie Duke and ask questions during the AMA
  3. Subscribe to Thinking in Bets for a 7-day free trial to access full post archives

Paid Subscriber AMA at 4pm Eastern Today (9/25/23)

79 implied HN points • 25 Sep 23
  1. Annie Duke is hosting a paid subscriber AMA at 4pm Eastern today
  2. Zoom link provided on the website for the AMA
  3. Consider subscribing for access to the full post archives and the 7-day free trial

Subscriber Only Discussion Thread

158 implied HN points • 19 Jan 23
  1. Just because something is objectively true doesn't make it the truth
  2. Always ask questions like 'Out of how many?' to understand data accurately
  3. Consider the untreated group to understand the real impact of a treatment

Paid subscriber AMA May 10th!

99 implied HN points • 05 May 23
  1. Paid subscriber AMA on May 10th at 6 pm eastern time.
  2. Zoom link will be sent on the same day to all paid subscribers.
  3. Mark your calendars to join the event!

Zoom AMA February 20th

118 implied HN points • 13 Feb 23
  1. Annie Duke is hosting a Zoom AMA on February 20th at 3pm Eastern time for paid subscribers only.
  2. Participants can ask questions or suggest topics for the AMA.
  3. The event aims to connect with subscribers, put faces to names, and build community.

Registration is open for my next decision making cohort on Maven.com

118 implied HN points • 20 Jan 23
  1. Annie Duke is offering a decision-making cohort on Maven.com
  2. The course runs for three weeks with classes on Mondays and Wednesdays
  3. Topics include how to make better decisions, understanding cognitive bias, and improving team decision-making

My next Maven cohort starts one week from today!

79 implied HN points • 27 Feb 23
  1. An upcoming cohort on making better decisions starts soon.
  2. The course offers a mix of lectures, case studies, and live coaching.
  3. Students in the cohort work together and continue to support each other even after the course ends.

Coming soon

99 implied HN points • 28 Nov 22
  1. Annie Duke is launching a newsletter about uncertainty
  2. The newsletter is called 'Thinking in Bets'
  3. The launch date is November 28, 2022

First Paid Subscriber Only AMA

79 implied HN points • 30 Jan 23
  1. First paid AMA event for paid subscribers only on February 20th
  2. Link for the event will be sent out to paid subscribers on the morning of February 20th
  3. The focus is on engaging deeply with the community and discussing decision making under uncertainty

Mailbag submissions

79 implied HN points • 21 Jan 23
  1. Annie Duke will be answering subscriber questions in mailbag posts.
  2. You must be a subscriber to submit questions for the mailbag.
  3. Subscribe to Thinking in Bets for a 7-day free trial to access full post archives.

Leading your team through a downturn in 2023

59 implied HN points • 12 Jan 23
  1. Join a free expert panel on Maven.com about leading teams in a downturn
  2. Learn from experienced professionals about tackling leadership decisions during tough times
  3. Discover opportunities and strategies to navigate downturns and lead your team effectively in 2023

Mailbag!

39 implied HN points • 05 Mar 23
  1. Annie Duke invites paid subscribers to ask questions for a Q&A session about decision-making.
  2. Subscribers can inquire about anything they're curious about, not just decision-making.
  3. To participate, one needs to be a paid subscriber of the publication.

My next Maven cohort starts in two weeks!

19 implied HN points • 20 Feb 23
  1. An upcoming cohort about making better decisions starts in two weeks
  2. The course offers a mix of lectures, case studies, and interactive sessions
  3. Previous participants had insightful experiences and found the course very valuable

Today's AMA at 3pm eastern

19 implied HN points • 20 Feb 23
  1. There is an AMA today at 3pm eastern
  2. Zoom link available for paid subscribers
  3. Can access 7-day free trial for full post archives

Q&A with Elizabeth Zalman and Jerry Neumann, coauthors of Founder vs. Investor: The Honest Truth About Venture Capital from Startup to IPO

1 HN point • 19 Sep 23
  1. The book explores the differing perspectives and goals of founders and investors in the startup journey, highlighting the potential for conflict.
  2. The approach of the book is unique in not trying to reconcile these differences but instead letting them be exposed and analyzed.
  3. The importance of promoting empathy and understanding between founders and investors from the beginning to build a more transparent and productive relationship.