Case Closed

Case Closed analyzes the business of space, focusing on the financial and strategic aspects of the space industry. It covers trends in space stocks, the role of government and private sector partnerships, key players in the new space race, and geopolitical competition in space exploration.

Space Industry Trends Financial Analysis of Space Companies Geopolitical Competition in Space Government and Private Sector Partnerships Space Technology and Infrastructure Investor Insights and Stock Market Performance Risks and Opportunities in Space SPACs Space Exploration Missions Commercial and Military Uses of Space Technology

The hottest Substack posts of Case Closed

And their main takeaways

Stars, Stripes, and Satellites

275 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Space Tech Military Satellites
  1. The US military heavily relies on space technology for various purposes like intelligence, surveillance, and communications.
  2. Due to evolving threats and outdated technology, the US government established the Space Development Agency (SDA), with a significant budget increase and focus on commercial partnerships.
  3. The SDA is deploying a new military satellite constellation quickly, offering a substantial $30B+ contracting opportunity for satellite manufacturers and leading to potential growth in the commercial space industry.

January 2024 Space Stock Review

137 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stocks Markets Investing Private Markets
  1. Space stocks performed poorly compared to the broader market in January 2024.
  2. Investors should evaluate space stocks that are currently out of favor for future opportunities.
  3. Changes were made to the coverage of space stocks, with specific insights on the performance of ASTS, LLAP, LUNR, SATS, CMTL, and BA.

#Trending: 2Q23 Space SPAC Earnings Scorecard

216 implied HN points • 03 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing Earnings
  1. When analyzing space SPAC earnings, focus on capital management, scaling efficiency, and solvency metrics.
  2. Evaluate companies based on trends over multiple quarters to understand their financial health.
  3. Different space SPAC companies showcase varying financial positions and strategies, with some focusing on future growth, while others are racing towards profitability.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

April 2023 Space Stock Review + 2022 SPAC Guidance Analysis + 1Q23 Earnings Scorecard

216 implied HN points • 31 May 23
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Space Industry
  1. Space stocks lagged behind the broader market in April due to mixed signals and economic uncertainties.
  2. Many space SPACs did not meet their original revenue projections, highlighting the risks involved in relying on overly optimistic guidance.
  3. Evaluating space SPAC earnings can help identify companies that show potential for growth and survival during economic challenges.

March 2023 Space Stock Review+ ULA M&A

176 implied HN points • 12 Apr 23
💼 Business Finance Science Technology Investing Space
  1. March and 1Q23 Market Overview: Space SPACs were down, legacy space stocks performed worse, and stock market volatility was influenced by changing expectations for interest rates and the economy.
  2. Space Stock Performance and Valuation: Different sectors performed differently, with manufacturing outperforming. Companies like SATL and LUNR were discussed for their valuation considerations.
  3. Analyzing the Potential Sale of United Launch Alliance: Speculation surrounds the potential sale of ULA, with Lockheed Martin likely to buy out Boeing's stake based on financial and strategic considerations.

June 2023 Space Stock Review

117 implied HN points • 23 Jul 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Economic outlook
  1. Space SPACs led the market in June with a +13% return
  2. Optimism in the stock market due to reduced inflation and Federal Reserve decisions
  3. BlackSky's valuation premium overtaking Planet Labs signifies a shift in earth observation leadership

June Space Stock Review

117 implied HN points • 06 Jul 22
  1. Legacy space stocks outperformed S&P 500, while space SPACs declined
  2. Inflation drove poor stock market performance in June
  3. Legacy space stocks expected to continue outperforming space SPACs

GPS is Ripe for Disruption

98 implied HN points • 02 Jun 22
  1. GPS is vulnerable to jamming and spoofing, making it unreliable for critical applications.
  2. Society heavily relies on GPS for various functions, and a backup system is crucial.
  3. Private space startups like Xairos are focusing on developing more accurate and secure PNT technology to address GPS vulnerabilities and meet future commercial needs.

You're Welcome Wednesday #2: GPS and Global Navigation Satellite Systems

98 implied HN points • 18 May 22
  1. Humans have used celestial navigation and timekeeping for centuries.
  2. Modern Global Navigation Satellite Systems, like GPS, provide precise location, navigation, and time information.
  3. GPS has widespread applications in military operations, civilian sectors like transportation, recreation, agriculture, and public safety.

May Space Stock Review + Bonus: 1Q22 Space SPAC Earnings Review

78 implied HN points • 10 Jun 22
  1. May saw S&P 500 and legacy space stocks outperforming NASDAQ and tech stocks.
  2. Space SPACs experienced a negative performance, particularly in launcher stocks.
  3. 1Q22 Space SPAC earnings revealed key themes and updates from various companies.

Sorting Out the Details of the NRO's EOCL Contract Awards

39 implied HN points • 26 May 22
  1. The NRO announced the EOCL contract awards valued at billions of dollars over the next decade.
  2. Maxar, BlackSky, and Planet Labs were awarded 10-year deals under the EOCL contracts.
  3. Maxar, BlackSky, and Planet Labs saw significant movements in their stock prices following the announcement of the contract awards.

Hello, World!

39 implied HN points • 07 Dec 21
  1. The author is interested in space industry and has been researching various space companies and investments.
  2. There is a focus on new space technology and SPACs compared to traditional telco industry growth.
  3. The author enjoys discussing space companies and industry themes with others and invites connection on Twitter.

April Space Stock Roundup

19 implied HN points • 05 May 22
  1. Legacy space stocks outperformed both the market and space SPACs in 2022.
  2. Macro drivers of negative stock market performance in April included various factors like rising rates and geopolitical tensions.
  3. Most space SPAC stocks declined in April, with only a few companies like Planet and Satellogic showing positive performance.

Introducing a New Series: You're Welcome Wednesday

19 implied HN points • 04 May 22
  1. The series 'You're Welcome Wednesday' highlights how space technology benefits life on Earth.
  2. Cell phone cameras and HD video are made possible by CMOS sensors developed for space use.
  3. CMOS sensors are now used in various technologies like cameras, medical devices, and earth observation satellites.

March Space Stock Review

19 implied HN points • 05 Apr 22
  1. Space SPACs underperformed major indices in March
  2. Wide range of returns in space SPACs driven by individual stock catalysts
  3. Notable returns in March led by Launchers, Satellite Constellations, and Manufacturing & Infrastructure

Are Space SPACs Ready to Launch?

19 implied HN points • 02 Feb 22
  1. Space SPACs faced significant losses in January
  2. Market volatility due to uncertainty about Federal Reserve interest rate changes
  3. Investors should be cautious about low valuations of Space SPACs

2022 Space Industry Key Themes - Part 3

19 implied HN points • 13 Jan 22
  1. 2022 will see a surge in next-gen rockets including heavy-lift and small/medium rockets globally.
  2. Governments and space agencies are focused on developing bigger and more economical rockets for space infrastructure.
  3. Investors should track the progress of heavy-lift and small launchers as they impact pricing, national initiatives, and market performance.

2022 Key Space Industry Themes for Investors - Part 1

19 implied HN points • 03 Jan 22
  1. Geopolitical competition between the US and China is heating up in the space industry, leading to a new space race.
  2. US and China are striving for space leadership, with the US focusing on partnerships and private sector innovation, while China demonstrates rapid progress in its space program.
  3. The spacefaring world may divide into US-led and China-led camps, impacting international relations and driving more investor interest in the space sector.

What Is "New Space"?

19 implied HN points • 30 Dec 21
  1. New Space refers to space activity where private sector bears risks and costs through fixed-price contracts.
  2. Old Space, associated with legacy aerospace & defense companies, relied on cost-plus contracts.
  3. Transition in the 2000s saw government pivot to partnering with private companies to lower space access costs, and fix-price contracts promoted innovation.

2022 Space Industry Key Themes - Part 4

0 implied HN points • 21 Jan 22
  1. Commercial space station development is a growing topic in the space industry.
  2. NASA aims to transition from operating its own space station to utilizing privately-owned stations.
  3. Investors can look into publicly traded companies involved in the construction of commercial space stations.

Coming soon

0 implied HN points • 06 Dec 21
  1. The newsletter is about publicly traded new space companies and space industry trends.
  2. Caseclosed.substack.com is coming soon.
  3. Follow the 'Space Case' newsletter on Substack for updates.

New Space De-Orbiting

0 implied HN points • 23 Dec 21
  1. New Space stocks have underperformed the market recently due to Federal Reserve policy changes and investor bias towards launchers
  2. Rising interest rates could impact New Space companies negatively, especially since their value relies heavily on future cash flows
  3. Launchers in the New Space industry have outperformed other sectors, but all companies need to meet business plans to see stock price appreciation

February Space Stock Review

0 implied HN points • 07 Mar 22
  1. Space SPACs outperformed the broader market in February.
  2. There was a wide range of performance among individual Space SPAC stocks.
  3. Legacy Space stocks saw a significant increase due to geopolitical tensions.

2022 Space Industry Key Themes - Part 2

0 implied HN points • 06 Jan 22
  1. 2022 is seeing an increase in lunar space missions, especially with up to 10 major missions planned, with a focus on the lunar south pole for resources like water.
  2. Establishing a permanent moon base is crucial for scientific experimentation, deep space exploration, and national interests, with the winner getting the best location, influence in setting lunar code of conduct, and a head-start on resource extraction.
  3. The USA and China are key players in the moon exploration race, with China taking lead in recent missions and the USA focusing on the Artemis Program to land humans on the moon by 2025.

3Q21 New Space Earnings Review

0 implied HN points • 19 Dec 21
  1. New Space companies are scaling up operations and focusing on vertical integration.
  2. Public space companies are facing challenges in managing expectations as they transition to the stock market.
  3. Earth observation and satellite infrastructure companies are dealing with revenue guidance issues and uncertainties.

BONUS - Commercial Space Stations Pt. 2

0 implied HN points • 27 Jan 22
  1. Axiom Space plans for their proposed space station to be self-funded from operations revenue.
  2. There are uncertainties around Axiom's revenue generation potential and profitability as they ramp up space missions.
  3. Axiom may require more investor funding than initially planned, indicating challenges in achieving profitability in the early stages.