The hottest Economic outlook Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Nobody Expected Our Current Interest-Rate Configuration

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 153 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates Monetary Policy Economic outlook Federal Reserve Inflation
  1. Many were surprised by the current interest-rate situation in the US, with rates significantly higher than expected.
  2. Market changes in 2022 led to a drastic increase in long-term real safe interest rates, signaling shifts in Federal Reserve policy.
  3. The current interest-rate configuration, considerably higher than anticipated, raised concerns about a looming recession among experts.
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Too High for Too Long?

Modern Value Investing • 98 implied HN points • 06 Aug 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Interest Rates Real Estate Economic outlook
  1. Inflation measures are flawed, leading to skepticism about high interest rates, causing uncertainty for the US economy.
  2. The current rate hike cycle is more aggressive than previous cycles, potentially risking a recession in 2024.
  3. Challenges in real estate, student loan debts, and credit card debts, along with aggressive hiring, may indicate shaky ground for the US economy.

Iceberg Risk

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 117 implied HN points • 18 Feb 23
💰 Finance Economic outlook Market Analysis Monetary Policy Investment strategy
  1. The economic outlook for 2023 differs from the consensus, with expectations of lower inflation and resilient growth.
  2. The treasury curve suggests an improved growth outlook without an increase in inflation expectations.
  3. The earnings recession seen in certain sectors is recovering, indicating a positive trend in earnings revisions.

My Interview on Korea's Hankyung TV

Deep Dive Tangents and Rationalizations • 0 implied HN points • 04 May 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Economic outlook
  1. The growing attractiveness of Korean stocks is driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, such as forecasts of GDP growth in Emerging Markets and the movement to diversify production out of China.
  2. There has been a noticeable increase in foreign investor ownership in the Korean market, with January showing a significant jump in value, reflecting a net 'buy-in'.
  3. The outlook for the Korean stock market seems positive for the foreseeable future, with measures to enhance international investor access and potential market growth, despite challenges like market research issues and concerns over ceding control to foreign interests.

Investing Update: I Bought 2 Stocks

Spilled Coffee • 0 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Economic outlook Retail Investors Company analysis
  1. Investors continue to feel comfortable investing in stocks as the market remains near all-time highs with positive trends.
  2. The economy is not slowing down; in fact, it's accelerating with strong signs of growth ahead according to experts like Apollo's Torsten Slok.
  3. US stock allocations are at their highest level since November 2021, with retail investors being net sellers but overall optimism in the market.