The hottest Private Markets Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Venture Capital Doesn't Exist

Investing 101 • 92 implied HN points • 14 Mar 26
💼 Business Private Markets
  1. 'Venture capital' is a misleading catch-all — it really splits into seed investing, classic early-stage venture, supercharged growth rounds, and private small-cap tech stocks.
  2. Each category needs a different approach and carries different risks: seed is a people game, classic venture backs risky experiments, supercharged growth buys momentum and access, and private small-cap deals are mainly a game of capital.
  3. Founders and investors should explicitly pick which game they're playing and align their partners, capital strategy, and expectations to that specific category.

Private Credit Exec Admits "All" Marks Are "Wrong"

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 29 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
💰 Finance Private Markets
  1. A top private credit firm admitted that most valuation marks in the private markets are wrong.
  2. They estimated that loans to a typical leveraged mid-size software company might only recover about 20 to 40 cents on the dollar if things go south.
  3. That blunt warning suggests private market valuations are likely overstated and investors could face much bigger losses than current marks imply.

The SaaS Bloodbath: Opportunities and Perils for Investors

East Wind • 19 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
💰 Finance Private Markets
  1. The recent software sell-off is partly a market overreaction, not the death of mission-critical SaaS. Incumbent vendors that adopt AI can protect pricing power and improve free cash flow.
  2. Companies with "artificial limiters" — non-code moats like network effects, regulatory barriers, and physical infrastructure — are best positioned to re-accelerate growth and can become multi-baggers if bought at the right price.
  3. Venture investing is riskier now because public multiples are compressed and many startups are still effectively SaaS, so private-market entry prices may not be justified by exits, making public equities a clearer place to find mispricings.

January 2024 Space Stock Review

Case Closed • 137 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
💰 Finance Private Markets
  1. Space stocks performed poorly compared to the broader market in January 2024.
  2. Investors should evaluate space stocks that are currently out of favor for future opportunities.
  3. Changes were made to the coverage of space stocks, with specific insights on the performance of ASTS, LLAP, LUNR, SATS, CMTL, and BA.
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Equities Just Might Not Be The Same Anymore

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
💰 Finance Private Markets
  1. High-growth companies are staying private longer and selling to wealthy investors, so everyday retail investors are being shut out of the biggest returns.
  2. There are fewer public companies and IPOs happen much later, making the stock market less diverse and a poorer reflection of the broader economy.
  3. Given these structural shifts and short-term reporting pressures, the long-held belief that stocks will always deliver strong returns is now questionable and depends on policy and human choices.

Net Interest 2025 Year in Review

Net Interest • 12 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
💰 Finance Private Markets
  1. AI soaked up massive capital and is reshaping finance. Hyperscalers spent hundreds of billions on data centers, and AI is changing equity research and powering new payments and agent-driven sales.
  2. Private markets are growing into the role once held by public markets, with private equity and credit expanding rapidly but raising valuation and liquidity concerns. Some private valuations look stretched and could create coordination risks if sentiment shifts.
  3. Retail investors and fintech are changing market structure while crypto infrastructure advances. Retail trading share has risen and firms like Robinhood gained influence as stablecoins and tokenization grew under looser regulation.

The Liquidity Problem

Points And Figures • 346 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
💰 Finance Private Markets
  1. Carta attempted to tackle the liquidity problem of holding shares in private companies but faced challenges
  2. Creating a liquid market for private company stocks is difficult due to lack of buyers and sellers with aligned incentives
  3. Efforts to solve the liquidity problem might be more successful with digital programmable securities like security tokens