Hypertext

Hypertext, a Niskanen Center journal, explores liberalism, political economy, and policy with an emphasis on finding common ground for an effective state and market to advance the common good. It addresses complex societal issues, the role of evidence in policymaking, and the balance between individual freedom and social welfare.

Liberalism Political Economy Public Policy Universal Basic Income Evidence-Based Policymaking Social Welfare Programs Government and Democracy Research and Evaluation Income Taxation and Redistribution Educational Programs and Policies

The hottest Substack posts of Hypertext

And their main takeaways

Is there hope for evidence-based policy?

79 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
  1. Evidence-based policy faces challenges: some interventions evaluated don't have lasting effects, making social change difficult.
  2. Incrementalism is common in policy changes, reflecting the complexity of altering systems, and progress is still possible despite failures.
  3. Research quality is improving, with useful findings emerging; policymakers should focus on changing incentives rather than preferences.

Irrepressible liberalism: the philosophy of Gerald Gaus

159 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
📖 Philosophy Liberalism Public Reason Political Philosophy
  1. Gerald Gaus emphasized the importance of optimism and confidence in defending liberalism, even in challenging times with populist threats.
  2. Gaus's philosophy focused on bottom-up moral reasoning and the idea that a diverse society can find common ground through emergent order.
  3. He advocated for extensive individual freedom as essential for the survival of an open society, and highlighted the significance of incrementalism and learning-based governance in policymaking.

Can open societies survive?

59 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
📖 Philosophy Liberalism Human nature Governance Diversity
  1. Liberal democracies have faced challenges in recent years due to the rise of ideologies hostile to the liberal order, resulting in increased doubt among defenders of liberal democracy
  2. In his final work, Gerald Gaus argued that open societies can address challenges through a liberal framework and highlighted the importance of public justification for moral justification in a diverse society
  3. Gaus proposed that open societies, despite facing complexity and governance issues, can succeed through bottom-up moral reasoning, local-level social contracts, and reliance on markets and democracy for collective self-governance

Guaranteed-income realism

99 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Government Advocacy Legislation
  1. Developing policies like the Child Tax Credit can mirror elements of Milton Friedman's negative income tax, demonstrating the challenges of passing sweeping policies.
  2. Advocates propose refocusing on programs like the Child Tax Credit rather than a more universal approach, citing potential benefits and fewer political obstacles.
  3. Considering alternative approaches like total income phase-out (TIP) for welfare programs could offer new paths forward without requiring immediate program repeals.

Fixing the research-to-policy pipeline

19 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🚌 Education Research Policy Programs Scaling
  1. Challenges in evidence-based policy include interpreting research results, dealing with luck, p-hacking, and external validity.
  2. Pre-registration of RCTs and requiring data/code sharing help combat issues like luck and p-hacking in research.
  3. Scaling effective programs poses challenges of logistics, resources, and ensuring successful reproduction in multiple settings.
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Raising the bar: Ending an era of low expectations

19 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
  1. Improving research methodologies and funding high-quality program evaluation replications is crucial for informed policymaking.
  2. Focusing on adjusting policy that governs existing systems is generally more impactful than implementing new programs.
  3. Rigorous evaluation is critical in making complex policy decisions, such as those in healthcare and criminal justice, to avoid unintended harmful effects.

Free money: Milton Friedman, unconditional income, and the neoliberal inheritance

179 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government programs
  1. Milton Friedman advocated for an unconditional negative income tax to create an income floor for all Americans.
  2. Friedrich Hayek and other intellectuals support the concept of a negative income tax or Universal Basic Income.
  3. The idea of a negative income tax failed in the past due to societal views of 'deserving' and 'undeserving' poor, but there is potential for revisiting and implementing it now.

This is Hypertext

139 implied HN points • 20 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Liberalism Political Economy Policy Public Discourse
  1. Hypertext journal is a new platform from the Niskanen Center focused on liberalism, political economy, and policy.
  2. They aim to engage in thoughtful dialogue through essays to bring people together and restore the original promise of hypertext.
  3. The Niskanen Center works to bridge the gap between traditional left and right ideas by injecting fresh perspectives into public discourse.

Hayek, republican freedom, and the minimum income

139 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Welfare Economics Libertarianism Income
  1. Milton Friedman supported unconditional cash transfers as a solution to poverty in a market economy.
  2. Hayek's republican freedom theory emphasized the importance of free markets and limited government as well as the need for a minimum income to safeguard individual freedom.
  3. Although Hayek did not endorse a Universal Basic Income (UBI), his principles offer a strong argument for a social safety net in the form of unconditional cash transfers.

The Friedman-lite welfare state and how to make the most of it

99 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Social programs
  1. Milton Friedman's idea of a negative income tax failed to gain political traction, but it paved the way for modern welfare state reforms focusing on refundable child tax credits and in-work tax credits to support low-income households.
  2. Despite the global spread of ideas related to negative income tax, most rich democracies, including the United States, struggle with implementing it due to cultural distinctions between deserving and undeserving poor.
  3. Friedman's concept of a negative income tax still holds promise, but its success is hindered not just by economic considerations, but also by political, institutional, and sociological factors that need to be addressed when designing welfare policies.

"The progress of man's welfare"

99 implied HN points • 14 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Government Policy History
  1. Milton Friedman advocated for 'progressive negative taxation' as a way to address poverty and ensure welfare progress. The idea was rooted in a guaranteed minimum income based on nutritional needs.
  2. Friedman's negative income tax proposal faced challenges and opposition, particularly in implementation and acceptance among policymakers. It aimed to bridge left-wing and right-wing perspectives on poverty alleviation.
  3. The concept of negative income tax, though not fully realized in policy, showcased the ideological uniqueness of grounding economic theories in practical welfare solutions. It sought to balance efficiency, individual freedom, and incentives in addressing poverty.

Policy analysis in the wild

19 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis
  1. Open societies are complex due to layers of values, norms, and rules, leading to challenges in predicting policy effects
  2. Unpredictability in open societies arises from complexity and reflexivity, showcasing the need for adaptive policy approaches
  3. Policy analysts can navigate complexity by focusing on the adjacent possible, hindering hindrances, and designing rules to address social challenges

Reconsidering Milton Friedman and the negative income tax

59 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Poverty Economics Social programs Neoliberalism
  1. The NIT proposed by Friedman could have advantages in targeting poverty by providing cash transfers without distorting the market.
  2. Friedman's NIT plan was not fully accepted due to various factors such as concerns about work incentives, opposition from special interest groups, and the perception of it being a neoliberal initiative.
  3. There is ongoing interest in income floor ideas like the NIT and UBI today, but there are distinctions between the two models and challenges in gaining support for the NIT concept.

A negative income tax for today’s America

19 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Welfare Values Economics Reform
  1. Repackaging the negative income tax (NIT) for today's America includes starting from the current welfare system and considering path dependency.
  2. Introducing the NIT should focus on value frameworks appealing to both progressives and conservatives, emphasizing inclusivity, accessibility, opportunity, and cost-effectiveness.
  3. Implementing the NIT in steps requires reforms that are small enough to pass legislation, improve the lives of the poor, and align with both progressive and conservative values.

Less-than-Universal Basic Income

19 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Social Welfare Policy Government Taxation
  1. Universal Basic Income (UBI) has gained popularity, but its implementation faces challenges in terms of cost and fairness.
  2. Alternative approaches like a permanent expansion of the Child Tax Credit offer a more feasible path for large-scale cash transfers.
  3. Expanding the Child Tax Credit could address concerns about cost and fairness while still providing significant support to families in need.

The limits of Death Star thinking

2 HN points • 27 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Law Government Legislation Reform
  1. Many evidence-based interventions fail due to overlooking the complex, adaptive nature of systems, leading to unintended consequences.
  2. Policymakers often fall into 'Death Star thinking,' seeking a single, dramatic solution, instead of recognizing the need for ongoing care and systemic reforms.
  3. Creating true change in government effectiveness requires a shift towards enabling agencies by reducing constraints and building trust, rather than just imposing punitive measures.

When ‘can’t miss’ programs fail

0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Social programs Government funding Innovation Research Methods
  1. Experimentation and evaluation are crucial in discovering effective social solutions; funding should consider reinvestment in programs with null results for improvements.
  2. Interpreting null findings from programs is important; reasons for ineffectiveness could range from program inefficacy to delivery issues or changing environments.
  3. Being cautious in prioritizing 'evidence-based' programs is necessary; it may hinder innovation and obstruct the quest for better solutions.

Welcome to Oz: A look behind the government curtain

0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Policy Research Influence Justice
  1. Policy decisions are often not based on evidence but on preordained ideological inclinations, with research used to justify decisions after the fact.
  2. The concept of 'evidence-based practice' is frequently overused without a solid understanding of which interventions truly qualify, and often used against communities of color.
  3. Efforts to influence policy shouldn't rely solely on research but also involve advocacy, systems change, media, and social forces to create meaningful change.

What is ‘gold standard’ evidence, anyway?

0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🔬 Science Research Criminal Justice Public Safety
  1. Gold standard evidence in policy often comes from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that help isolate causal effects but are not always practical, especially in criminal justice settings.
  2. Quasi-experimental methods like regression discontinuity designs (RDD) and difference in differences (DID) can also provide high-quality evidence for evaluating causal effects of programs and policies, offering flexibility where RCTs are not feasible.
  3. Recent analysis showed that RDD and DID designs are as reliable as RCTs for inferring causality, indicating that a variety of methods beyond RCTs can be valuable 'gold standard' evidence in policy and criminal justice research.

Democracy of evidence

0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🚌 Education Policy Analysis Econometrics Social Sciences Public Policy
  1. Econometrics helps to reveal truths in small-scale matters, but applying them to large societal issues requires many assumptions. Democratizing knowledge generation can be a social game-changer by putting economic tools in the hands of more people.
  2. Academics often focus on big questions about human nature, but the implementation of policies by governmental and social organizations could benefit from more hands-on and practical application of econometric tools to measure the impact of these policies.
  3. Government and social institutions should embrace a more incremental approach, like carpenters, making gradual improvements as opposed to sweeping changes. There's potential for significant social change when institutions start questioning and measuring the effectiveness of their own operations.

The hubris of social scientists

0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🔬 Science Social Science Public Policy
  1. Researchers should expand beyond randomized trials in social science evaluations due to the complexity of the social world and challenges in replicating findings.
  2. The 'hubris of social scientists' refers to the overconfidence and limitations in assuming new ideas will succeed, highlighting the commonality of failures in various fields, not just social policy.
  3. Identifying small effects in social science research is difficult due to the high variability across contexts, limitations in sample sizes, and challenges in replicating studies, necessitating a more systematic approach to data collection and policy evaluation.

Causal research: More, not less

0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🚌 Education Research Policy Social Science Evidence Public Policy
  1. Understanding the effects of policies on people's lives is crucial, and causal research can provide valuable information to guide decision-making.
  2. Critiques of causal social science highlight the need for improvement in research publishing practices, such as publishing null studies and ensuring clarity on statistically significant but small results.
  3. Replication studies in policy-making, especially with experimental interventions like RCTs, can offer valuable insights to refine policies before widespread implementation, and continuous use of evidence can help in making incremental progress.

The ABCs of policy research

0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🚌 Education
  1. Preschool programs, such as Head Start, are significant despite mixed research findings, and it's important to look at the broader impact beyond academic performance.
  2. The research on preschool effectiveness has paved the way for studying 'why' programs work, leading to innovative approaches like enhancing parent engagement and reducing ECE workforce turnover.
  3. Despite challenges, conducting rigorous randomized studies is crucial in building an evidence base for social programs and policies, guiding investments towards effective interventions.

Is transformational change the only thing that matters?

0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Social Change Public Policy Criminal Justice
  1. Transformational change is difficult in various aspects of life, and most attempts do not lead to significant outcomes, but persistence is key to progress.
  2. Research and evaluation play a crucial role in understanding the effectiveness of interventions and innovations, although measuring programmatic effectiveness can be challenging.
  3. Randomized experiments, while powerful, are not the only form of high-quality evidence; various types of evidence contribute to building knowledge and understanding incremental changes over time.

Confronting radical uncertainty

0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
💼 Business Social Change Policy Research Nonprofit Government
  1. Social science research needs a recalibration with a focus on feedback, reflection, and improvement.
  2. There is a significant amount of uncertainty in understanding how change happens in people's lives, challenging traditional evidence-based policy approaches.
  3. Collaboration, customer feedback, and adaptability are key in creating effective social programs rather than relying solely on evidence-based interventions.

Liberal morality needs liberal mythology

0 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
📖 Philosophy Political Philosophy Epistemology Culture History Rhetoric
  1. Liberal morality requires liberal mythology to shape political leadership and intellectual life.
  2. Acknowledging the importance of persuasive storytelling and civic myth-making in open societies is crucial for public justification and promotion of liberalism.
  3. Creating and sustaining genuinely pluralistic and open societies require proactive engagement, creative leadership, and the inclusion of diverse cultural narratives.

It's hard to change people

0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🚌 Education Policy Economics Behavior Programs
  1. It's easier to change people's environment than to change people themselves.
  2. Many criminal justice programs aim to change preferences rather than incentives or constraints, leading to challenges in their effectiveness.
  3. Hot-spot policing is an example of an intervention that changes constraints and has shown a significant impact on crime reduction.

The precautionary principle

0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🔬 Science Policy Research Crime Justice Evidence
  1. Policy interventions should focus on 'stabilizers' - social forces that are difficult to change, rather than seeking unclear systemic reforms.
  2. Experiments like RCTs in criminal justice can provide meaningful insights, even if their scope is narrow, and they can be scaled with political will.
  3. Not all policy interventions are suitable for RCTs, but evidence from experiments should be considered as incremental tests for replication and scalability.

Data in, garbage out

0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🔬 Science Data Analysis Social Science Interventions
  1. Statistics can only tell us so much, so we should approach data with humility about both the power of social programs and hard data to test them.
  2. Rigorous measurement often doesn't definitively show whether interventions work, leading to ongoing debates and conflicting results in various fields.
  3. While randomized controlled trials have their value in measuring specified outcomes, they can miss unexpected effects and subtle interactions, highlighting the importance of qualitative methods and personal observations.

The world is hard to change

0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Social Science Political Science
  1. Social science has its limits when it comes to creating large, lasting changes through evidence-based policymaking.
  2. Social science is about learning from failures and adapting to the challenges of understanding and changing human behavior.
  3. Disappointment in evidence-based policymaking does not justify reverting to ideological assumptions; instead, it highlights the complexity of creating effective social change.

The case for optimism

0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🏥 Health Politics Criminal Justice Research Intervention Policy Public Safety
  1. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) play a crucial role in identifying effective interventions in criminal justice policy.
  2. Collaboration among researchers and practitioners is essential to develop and replicate successful causal research designs.
  3. Causal research has contributed to progress in criminal justice policy and helped identify interventions that work, while also highlighting ones that are ineffective or counterproductive.

Why does reform fail?

0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
  1. Focus on the process of reform can be as valuable, if not more, than the outcomes it produces.
  2. Collaboration and building relationships are essential in reform efforts, contributing to a safe, just, and democratic society.
  3. Considering the complexities of human interactions and intersubjectivity is crucial in understanding why criminal justice reforms may struggle to achieve their intended goals.

Issue index

0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Research Policy Government Data Social Science
  1. The post contains 19 essays focusing on various important topics like research, policy, and social science.
  2. The essays discuss the importance of evidence-based decision-making and the challenges faced in implementing change.
  3. Authors explore subjects such as research integrity, government transparency, and the complexities of driving societal change.

Incrementalism beats YOLO

0 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Social Science Interventions Research
  1. Incremental social policies have proven to make the world a better place over time
  2. Narrow, incremental policy changes can have significant positive impacts, like increasing school attendance, boosting earnings, and reducing incarceration rates
  3. Incremental changes informed by high-quality evaluation and research can lead to greater effectiveness over time in various social programs, showing better results than 'you only live once' approaches in policy-making